Tulane being considered for the Big 12?

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RobertM320
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Also, Utah can not be considered a legacy P5. They moved up the same year TCU did. Its only been ten years for both.


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RobertM320 wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:50 am Also, Utah can not be considered a legacy P5. They moved up the same year TCU did. Its only been ten years for both.
That's the other part. There are unique scenarios that can occur. For example, TCU was elevated because Texas A&M left the Big 12, TCU was the best G5 Texas program, TCU was in the Dallas metropolitan area, and the Big 12 wanted to maintain 4 Texas based schools. To that end, the spot that TCU secured was not available to any teams not in Texas - so Tulane, UCF, etc. had zero shot at that spot regardless as to how good they were or were not on the field.

Utah also had a unique situation. The PAC 12 was expecting 2 Oklahoma and 2 Texas based schools to join, but that fell apart at the 11th hour. The PAC was okay with Colorado because of its status of as a state flagship institution with strong research/academics and would fit in well with existing PAC schools. Utah was added as a partner to Colorado for similar reasons and some on the field success (and Utah has since joined the AAU). In that case, the PAC 12 was not moving to the central time zone without Texas based schools (or Oklahoma), so the spot that Utah secured wasn't available for any central time zone G5 program.
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HoustonWave wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:34 am
Ruski wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:22 am
RobertM320 wrote: Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:07 pm Some interesting facts about the "Four Corners Schools"

Arizona State - The last time ASU won a conference title was 1996. Also the last time they played in a major bowl

Arizona - AU has never won the PAC-12, and they're only trip to a major bowl was in 2013, when the went to the Fiesta after losing the PAC12 CG. Their last conference title was the WAC in 1975

Colorado - The last time CU won a conference title was 2001, which was also their last major bowl appearance. Prior to that you go back to Bill McCartney days in the 1990s.

Utah - The most successful of the 4 corners schools, although its all in the past 20 years. Two undefeated seasons in the MWC in 2004 and 2008, both conference champs, and two major bowl appearances. Nothing since until they won consecutive PAC12 titles and went to the Rose Bowl twice in the past two years.


My question is, I'm not quite sure why these are considered "big brands" and so desirable. Other than the last two years with Utah, there was a grand total of 4 major bowl appearances in the past quarter century, and two of those were Utah because of being undefeated and the new BCS system being in place. There's only one conference title in this century between ASU, AU and CU, and that was CU in 2001 in the Big12. What makes them different than a Mississippi State or an Ole Miss or a Baylor?
Arizona State - 75,000 enrollment, Phoenix TV Market

Arizona - 39,000 enrollment, Tucson TV Market

Colorado - 36,000 enrollment, Denver TV Market

Utah - 26,000 enrollment, Salt Lake City TV Market

Come again?
Large enrollments and TV market size don’t necessarily translate to strong viewership, as is the case with three of these Four Corner schools, and that’s even with their current P5 schedules which in theory should attract viewers. Going to the Big 12 won’t increase the current viewership of any of these four schools—like it would if a G5 were moving into the Big 12. It will be very interesting to see what kind of viewership bump BYU, Cincy, UCF and UH get from starting their Big 12 schedules. And all of them, except UH already have more viewers than Colorado or the Arizonas.
Lots of talk for zero facts.

ASU - 1.95M fans
Utah -- 1.09M fans
Zona - 1.04M fans
Colo - .95M fans

UCF - 0.78M fans
Houston - 0.47M fans
Cincy - 0.39M fans

Tulane - 0.09M fans

Numbers are taken from AltimoreCollins study on fanbase sizes:


The study is quite fascinating. The Big12 has just been decimated since 2010. The concentration of fans in such few teams can be directly attributed to stupid ESPN. UCONN and Army would still be great adds to AAC.
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I wonder how quickly we could make that number jump if we were in a relevant conference thus playing against other relevant schools. I'm sure we could peel away 10% of the LSU fandom.
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austxwave wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:57 am I wonder how quickly we could make that number jump if we were in a relevant conference thus playing against other relevant schools. I'm sure we could peel away 10% of the LSU fandom.
Yes. We used to draw well when we played better competition
Stadiums get old, winning never does.
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Ruski wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:50 am
HoustonWave wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:34 am
Ruski wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:22 am

Arizona State - 75,000 enrollment, Phoenix TV Market

Arizona - 39,000 enrollment, Tucson TV Market

Colorado - 36,000 enrollment, Denver TV Market

Utah - 26,000 enrollment, Salt Lake City TV Market

Come again?
Large enrollments and TV market size don’t necessarily translate to strong viewership, as is the case with three of these Four Corner schools, and that’s even with their current P5 schedules which in theory should attract viewers. Going to the Big 12 won’t increase the current viewership of any of these four schools—like it would if a G5 were moving into the Big 12. It will be very interesting to see what kind of viewership bump BYU, Cincy, UCF and UH get from starting their Big 12 schedules. And all of them, except UH already have more viewers than Colorado or the Arizonas.
Lots of talk for zero facts.

ASU - 1.95M fans
Utah -- 1.09M fans
Zona - 1.04M fans
Colo - .95M fans

UCF - 0.78M fans
Houston - 0.47M fans
Cincy - 0.39M fans

Tulane - 0.09M fans

Numbers are taken from AltimoreCollins study on fanbase sizes:


The study is quite fascinating. The Big12 has just been decimated since 2010. The concentration of fans in such few teams can be directly attributed to stupid ESPN. UCONN and Army would still be great adds to AAC.
That is a fascinating study--I printed it off and will read thoroughly. But irrespective of how they estimate each school's fan base, like enrollment or TV market, it doesn't do anything if the estimated fan base isn't watching. The 2022 average per game viewership facts are: Utah #33 with 1.16M viewers; Arizona #62 with .51M viewers; Colorado #67 with .35M viewers; Arizona State #71 with .31M viewers. Compared with BYU #38 with .98M viewers; Cincy #55 with .65M viewers; UCF #61 with .51M viewers; UH #78 with .24M viewers; and Tulane #65 with .35M viewers. And I would expect those new Big 12 schools will see significant upticks in their viewership, just as Tulane would if we get into any P5. Conversely, we'll see a big drop for Tulane if we're in the AACUSA more than 2 or 3 years. Again, enrollment and fan base doesn't necessarily equate to viewership. In many ways, UH is the epitome of this, with over 50K students and hundreds of thousands of alums, many concentrated in the Houston area, and they can't draw any proportionate attendance or viewership.
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I met a Texas A&M fan in an airport lounge recently. He told me he knew from the opening week, when they lost to Appalachian State, that there was no reason to watch this past year. I think a lot of fair weather fans exist for the large schools, and as we saw in Dallas, we have a lot of fans that have probably never been in Yulman, or have only been for a homecoming.
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RobertM320
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Also, that fanbase research was done in June of 2022, with us coming off of a 2-10 season. Wanna bet our numbers would be much different if it was done now?
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They can generate all kinds of numbers about enrollment, TV market, alumni location, etc., but the only thing networks and stream services care about is viewership. Their entire revenue structure is based on that and it's all that matters. They trust that they can accurately measure it and go by those numbers.
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HoustonWave wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 12:14 pm
Ruski wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:50 am
HoustonWave wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:34 am

Large enrollments and TV market size don’t necessarily translate to strong viewership, as is the case with three of these Four Corner schools, and that’s even with their current P5 schedules which in theory should attract viewers. Going to the Big 12 won’t increase the current viewership of any of these four schools—like it would if a G5 were moving into the Big 12. It will be very interesting to see what kind of viewership bump BYU, Cincy, UCF and UH get from starting their Big 12 schedules. And all of them, except UH already have more viewers than Colorado or the Arizonas.
Lots of talk for zero facts.

ASU - 1.95M fans
Utah -- 1.09M fans
Zona - 1.04M fans
Colo - .95M fans

UCF - 0.78M fans
Houston - 0.47M fans
Cincy - 0.39M fans

Tulane - 0.09M fans

Numbers are taken from AltimoreCollins study on fanbase sizes:


The study is quite fascinating. The Big12 has just been decimated since 2010. The concentration of fans in such few teams can be directly attributed to stupid ESPN. UCONN and Army would still be great adds to AAC.
That is a fascinating study--I printed it off and will read thoroughly. But irrespective of how they estimate each school's fan base, like enrollment or TV market, it doesn't do anything if the estimated fan base isn't watching. The 2022 average per game viewership facts are: Utah #33 with 1.16M viewers; Arizona #62 with .51M viewers; Colorado #67 with .35M viewers; Arizona State #71 with .31M viewers. Compared with BYU #38 with .98M viewers; Cincy #55 with .65M viewers; UCF #61 with .51M viewers; UH #78 with .24M viewers; and Tulane #65 with .35M viewers. And I would expect those new Big 12 schools will see significant upticks in their viewership, just as Tulane would if we get into any P5. Conversely, we'll see a big drop for Tulane if we're in the AACUSA more than 2 or 3 years. Again, enrollment and fan base doesn't necessarily equate to viewership. In many ways, UH is the epitome of this, with over 50K students and hundreds of thousands of alums, many concentrated in the Houston area, and they can't draw any proportionate attendance or viewership.
Are you basing this off this Medium article?

Consider me highly skeptical. He doesn't list where he came up with these numbers. Meanwhile go look on Youtube and search for Tulane videos compared to Colorado, Arizona, ASU, or Utah. Tulane rarely gets 10k+, meanwhile Colorado got 150k+ a few times for regular-season games. Our UCF championship game? 53k.

I love to support Tulane sports. But the reality is there are maybe a few hundred die-hards and only a few thousand who give a shit at all.
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Ruski wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 1:41 am
HoustonWave wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 12:14 pm
Ruski wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:50 am

Lots of talk for zero facts.

ASU - 1.95M fans
Utah -- 1.09M fans
Zona - 1.04M fans
Colo - .95M fans

UCF - 0.78M fans
Houston - 0.47M fans
Cincy - 0.39M fans

Tulane - 0.09M fans

Numbers are taken from AltimoreCollins study on fanbase sizes:


The study is quite fascinating. The Big12 has just been decimated since 2010. The concentration of fans in such few teams can be directly attributed to stupid ESPN. UCONN and Army would still be great adds to AAC.
That is a fascinating study--I printed it off and will read thoroughly. But irrespective of how they estimate each school's fan base, like enrollment or TV market, it doesn't do anything if the estimated fan base isn't watching. The 2022 average per game viewership facts are: Utah #33 with 1.16M viewers; Arizona #62 with .51M viewers; Colorado #67 with .35M viewers; Arizona State #71 with .31M viewers. Compared with BYU #38 with .98M viewers; Cincy #55 with .65M viewers; UCF #61 with .51M viewers; UH #78 with .24M viewers; and Tulane #65 with .35M viewers. And I would expect those new Big 12 schools will see significant upticks in their viewership, just as Tulane would if we get into any P5. Conversely, we'll see a big drop for Tulane if we're in the AACUSA more than 2 or 3 years. Again, enrollment and fan base doesn't necessarily equate to viewership. In many ways, UH is the epitome of this, with over 50K students and hundreds of thousands of alums, many concentrated in the Houston area, and they can't draw any proportionate attendance or viewership.
Are you basing this off this Medium article?

Consider me highly skeptical. He doesn't list where he came up with these numbers. Meanwhile go look on Youtube and search for Tulane videos compared to Colorado, Arizona, ASU, or Utah. Tulane rarely gets 10k+, meanwhile Colorado got 150k+ a few times for regular-season games. Our UCF championship game? 53k.

I love to support Tulane sports. But the reality is there are maybe a few hundred die-hards and only a few thousand who give a shit at all.
This is sort of a chicken and egg situation though. The Power 5s have that fan base because they play relevant teams in relevant games on relevant networks. These aren’t fixed and immutable variables. If you dropped Tulane in the SEC it would have more legitimacy and more fans.

The Cotton Bowl is sort of a proof-of-concept of this. We looked like a bonafide football school.

Now, how much of a difference would we see simply by being a full-fledged member of a P5? I don’t know, but it’s significantly more than zero.
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OUG wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 1:40 pm .The Cotton Bowl is sort of a proof-of-concept of this. We looked like a bonafide football school.
This is a significant statement.
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Ruski wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 1:41 am
HoustonWave wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 12:14 pm
Ruski wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:50 am

Lots of talk for zero facts.

ASU - 1.95M fans
Utah -- 1.09M fans
Zona - 1.04M fans
Colo - .95M fans

UCF - 0.78M fans
Houston - 0.47M fans
Cincy - 0.39M fans

Tulane - 0.09M fans

Numbers are taken from AltimoreCollins study on fanbase sizes:


The study is quite fascinating. The Big12 has just been decimated since 2010. The concentration of fans in such few teams can be directly attributed to stupid ESPN. UCONN and Army would still be great adds to AAC.
That is a fascinating study--I printed it off and will read thoroughly. But irrespective of how they estimate each school's fan base, like enrollment or TV market, it doesn't do anything if the estimated fan base isn't watching. The 2022 average per game viewership facts are: Utah #33 with 1.16M viewers; Arizona #62 with .51M viewers; Colorado #67 with .35M viewers; Arizona State #71 with .31M viewers. Compared with BYU #38 with .98M viewers; Cincy #55 with .65M viewers; UCF #61 with .51M viewers; UH #78 with .24M viewers; and Tulane #65 with .35M viewers. And I would expect those new Big 12 schools will see significant upticks in their viewership, just as Tulane would if we get into any P5. Conversely, we'll see a big drop for Tulane if we're in the AACUSA more than 2 or 3 years. Again, enrollment and fan base doesn't necessarily equate to viewership. In many ways, UH is the epitome of this, with over 50K students and hundreds of thousands of alums, many concentrated in the Houston area, and they can't draw any proportionate attendance or viewership.
Are you basing this off this Medium article?

Consider me highly skeptical. He doesn't list where he came up with these numbers. Meanwhile go look on Youtube and search for Tulane videos compared to Colorado, Arizona, ASU, or Utah. Tulane rarely gets 10k+, meanwhile Colorado got 150k+ a few times for regular-season games. Our UCF championship game? 53k.

I love to support Tulane sports. But the reality is there are maybe a few hundred die-hards and only a few thousand who give a shit at all.
How many people watch video reruns has even less to do with viewership than enrollment or TV market size. How many of those video-rerun fans watched the video more than once? There is nothing that can be drawn from how many watch video reruns on YouTube. The Cotton Bowl turnout and large turnouts against Memphis and UCF show there are many more interested fans than a "few thousand". Winning and playing important games matter.
Last edited by HoustonWave on Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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anEngineer wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:09 pm
OUG wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 1:40 pm .The Cotton Bowl is sort of a proof-of-concept of this. We looked like a bonafide football school.
This is a significant statement.
The challenge is that any evaluation of Tulane as a Power conference expansion candidate has to presume that Tulane would generally be a perpetual 6-6 team at the power level due to the increase in competition (recruiting, resources, infrastructure, commitment, etc.), the prevailing 9 conference game approach (vs. 8 in the AAC), Tulane's lack of history of being a consistent 10+ win team, and the general positioning of similar programs at the P5 level. Through that lens, Tulane's banner year probably does not change the perception of the program much in that evaluation, and we aren't even talking about viewership (*covered in the infographic above) - which is the most important thing.
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Aberzombie1892 wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 3:41 pm
anEngineer wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:09 pm
OUG wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 1:40 pm .The Cotton Bowl is sort of a proof-of-concept of this. We looked like a bonafide football school.
W
This is a significant statement.
The challenge is that any evaluation of Tulane as a Power conference expansion candidate has to presume that Tulane would generally be a perpetual 6-6 team at the power level due to the increase in competition (recruiting, resources, infrastructure, commitment, etc.), the prevailing 9 conference game approach (vs. 8 in the AAC), Tulane's lack of history of being a consistent 10+ win team, and the general positioning of similar programs at the P5 level. Through that lens, Tulane's banner year probably does not change the perception of the program much in that evaluation, and we aren't even talking about viewership (*covered in the infographic above) - which is the most important thing.
The Cotton Bowl has shown 2 things:
Tulane can win on the big stage.
Tulane fans are numerous and anxious to support the program.
It's the job of AD Dannen and President Fitts to convince suitors that the support for those will continue.
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The outcome of the Cotton Bowl is pretty meaningless in the big picture of getting a P5 invite. The number of fans that showed up was much more important. We proved that we could win on 1/2/23, it didn't "prove we can win on a big stage" any more than it proved we could give up 45 points against a west coast team. It was the biggest and most satisfying sports event of my life, I'm still glowing because of the outcome. But University Presidents voting on extending an invitation to their conference really don't care if we beat USC or if the pass was incomplete and we lost. It's a non-factor in getting an invite.

As far as TV ratings go, we did not have a whole number in front of the decimal in any game in 2021. As a matter of fact, we had 6 games that did not register a rating including games on ESPN2 and ESPNU. One particular week, versus ECU, we played on ESPNU and had 2 FCS games garner a rating yet we didn't have enough viewers to generate one. That's why I question the post that puts us 66th in TV viewers in 2021 and 65th in 2022. Won-Loss record and TV viewers are the reasons we've been left behind, we can only hope both continue to improve.
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D- it does matter that we won. IF we are being considered by any P5 it's a whole lot better to have won. If we lost we probably wouldn't even be considered as they'd write us off as only being there because the Bowl was forced to take us. Yes there are certainly other factors involved in the consideration but the positive vibe about the program that the win produced is certainly helpful IF we have any chance of moving up.
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Most of the college football world has forgotten who won the Cotton Bowl already. I know because people have said to me "Your team covered and put up a good fight in that game." One did so less than a week later. I have to remind them we won. It's a huge deal for us. It was another bowl game for most. The crowd was more important for the program than the outcome. Had the same game been played in front of 15K Tulane fans and 20K USC fans instead of 35K Tulane fans and 20K USC fans, our chances of an invite would be non-existent.

I'm not diminishing the outcome of the game for us die hard fans, the band wagon fans and the New Orleans community. I'm telling you that if we didn't cross the goal line on the final drive, we'd still be exactly where we are today. And winning this Cotton Bowl doesn't guarantee any kind of performance in any game going forward. If it did, Alabama would be National Champions every year since Saban's first on their sidelines.
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Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
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It matters. You're a party of one saying it doesn't. I don't know of anyone being told y'all put up a good game too bad you lost. National articles have been written about it. Everyone knows we won. It matters because it showed we belonged and weren't just forced on the bowl system. We proved ourselves worthy. As for the crowd it was nice but most know we haven't drawn flies and that most there went because it believed it was a once in a lifetime event.
Small time facilities for small time programs.
Let's enjoy our last season in D-1!!!
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DfromCT wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 12:47 pm Most of the college football world has forgotten who won the Cotton Bowl already. I know because people have said to me "Your team covered and put up a good fight in that game." One did so less than a week later. I have to remind them we won. It's a huge deal for us. It was another bowl game for most. The crowd was more important for the program than the outcome. Had the same game been played in front of 15K Tulane fans and 20K USC fans instead of 35K Tulane fans and 20K USC fans, our chances of an invite would be non-existent.

I'm not diminishing the outcome of the game for us die hard fans, the band wagon fans and the New Orleans community. I'm telling you that if we didn't cross the goal line on the final drive, we'd still be exactly where we are today. And winning this Cotton Bowl doesn't guarantee any kind of performance in any game going forward. If it did, Alabama would be National Champions every year since Saban's first on their sidelines.
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winwave wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 2:33 pm It matters. You're a party of one saying it doesn't. I don't know of anyone being told y'all put up a good game too bad you lost. National articles have been written about it. Everyone knows we won. It matters because it showed we belonged and weren't just forced on the bowl system. We proved ourselves worthy. As for the crowd it was nice but most know we haven't drawn flies and that most there went because it believed it was a once in a lifetime event.
Without looking it up, who won the Fiesta Bowl this year? I personally couldn't tell you who played in it.

That's my point about the Cotton Bowl. It's important to us because we're Tulane fans. 99% of sports fans outside of New Orleans cant tell you who won the game. And to those that make decisions about joining a conference that will share hundreds of millions of dollars annually, the number of fans was 1000% more important than the final score.
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Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
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TCU won. There win is negated by getting crushed in the NCG. We won . Beating USC with the Heisman winner at QB made us a national story. To get in you have to win on the big stage. We did that. It matters. You can continue to be the only one saying it doesn't matter but it matters and it matters a lot.
Small time facilities for small time programs.
Let's enjoy our last season in D-1!!!
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DfromCT wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:50 pm
winwave wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 2:33 pm It matters. You're a party of one saying it doesn't. I don't know of anyone being told y'all put up a good game too bad you lost. National articles have been written about it. Everyone knows we won. It matters because it showed we belonged and weren't just forced on the bowl system. We proved ourselves worthy. As for the crowd it was nice but most know we haven't drawn flies and that most there went because it believed it was a once in a lifetime event.
Without looking it up, who won the Fiesta Bowl this year? I personally couldn't tell you who played in it.

That's my point about the Cotton Bowl. It's important to us because we're Tulane fans. 99% of sports fans outside of New Orleans cant tell you who won the game. And to those that make decisions about joining a conference that will share hundreds of millions of dollars annually, the number of fans was 1000% more important than the final score.
With all due respect, I just don't think this logic applies here. While the team doesn't hold a massive fan base like the current P5 programs, Tulane was afforded a sizable amount of interest nationally, especially in the final stretch of the season carrying into the Cotton Bowl. Yes, anecdotal evidence holds little to no weight, but almost everyone I knew (outside of New Orleans) was reaching out to me before and after the Cotton Bowl heaping praise on Tulane's season. The team was arguably the best story in college football this year. Now, the football program is at a vital point in its history (they can either ride this momentum towards sustained success or let the 22-23 season serve as a flash in the pan), so the national buzz around the team should not be denied. Why not give Tulane the benefit of the doubt and say they're capable of being a big time player for the foreseeable future?
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I agree with winwave and most of us all agree that the win was really important. Not just getting a win against a school like USC, but also finishing in the top 10. Flashing around that top 10 ranking has to help in current PAC-12 discussions as well as beating their premier program on the way out.
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