Athlon 2020 Tulane Preview

The main discussion board for everything Tulane athletics related.
Bicoastalwave
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Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:52 am

https://athlonsports.com/college-footba ... eview-2020

We go as far as our QB will take us


golfnut69
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Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:36 am

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:52 am
https://athlonsports.com/college-footba ... eview-2020

We go as far as our QB will take us
Onward to the Rose Bowl
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winwave
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Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:04 am

Interesting that we only have two ranked teams and none in the top 20.
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Bicoastalwave
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Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:22 pm

winwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:04 am
Interesting that we only have two ranked teams and none in the top 20.
Memphis, UCF, Miss State and SMU will all likely spend significant time in the top 25. I also wouldn’t count out Houston, Navy and Temple being there at some point.

The most important question though is will Tulane spend any time in the Top 25?
winwave
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Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:19 pm

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:22 pm
winwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:04 am
Interesting that we only have two ranked teams and none in the top 20.
Memphis, UCF, Miss State and SMU will all likely spend significant time in the top 25. I also wouldn’t count out Houston, Navy and Temple being there at some point.

The most important question though is will Tulane spend any time in the Top 25?
To be clear I was talking about the AAC. As for MSU I doubt it. Same with the others you mentioned.
JUST WIN TULANE! NO MORE EXCUSES! WE DESERVE BETTER!
Aberzombie1892
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Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:28 pm

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:22 pm
winwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:04 am
Interesting that we only have two ranked teams and none in the top 20.
Memphis, UCF, Miss State and SMU will all likely spend significant time in the top 25. I also wouldn’t count out Houston, Navy and Temple being there at some point.

The most important question though is will Tulane spend any time in the Top 25?
Tulane has the least returning production in the AAC using ESPN’s methodology and Northwestern has the most returning in the B1G. No one would be surprised if Tulane lost to both Northwestern - and - MS State, and that would remove any chance of a Tulane being in the top 25 unless it made it to 7-2 or so and those two teams ended up with lofty records as well, and, in order to reach 7-2 with losses to Northwestern and MS State, Tulane would have to beat Navy, Houston, SMU, UCF, and Temple. That’s not happening, so the best bet is to presume Tulane won’t be in the top 25 at all.
Bicoastalwave
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Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:39 pm

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:28 pm
Bicoastalwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:22 pm
winwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:04 am
Interesting that we only have two ranked teams and none in the top 20.
Memphis, UCF, Miss State and SMU will all likely spend significant time in the top 25. I also wouldn’t count out Houston, Navy and Temple being there at some point.

The most important question though is will Tulane spend any time in the Top 25?
Tulane has the least returning production in the AAC using ESPN’s methodology and Northwestern has the most returning in the B1G. No one would be surprised if Tulane lost to both Northwestern - and - MS State, and that would remove any chance of a Tulane being in the top 25 unless it made it to 7-2 or so and those two teams ended up with lofty records as well, and, in order to reach 7-2 with losses to Northwestern and MS State, Tulane would have to beat Navy, Houston, SMU, UCF, and Temple. That’s not happening, so the best bet is to presume Tulane won’t be in the top 25 at all.
Interesting break down. So essentially we need to win one of miss state/northwestern. And before someone jumps in with “ let’s just win !” Or “who cares if we are in the top 25”, it’s an online forum in the middle of the summer. I care. Tulane being in the top 25 will be a big deal for changing perception (locally and nationally) and for recruiting.

If Tulane wins its first 3 games (Sela, Northwestern and Navy) is that enough to get them into the top 25 ? Game 4 is against Miss State, and that win assuredly would get them in and send a statement nationally.
Aberzombie1892
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Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:05 pm

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:39 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:28 pm
Bicoastalwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:22 pm
winwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:04 am
Interesting that we only have two ranked teams and none in the top 20.
Memphis, UCF, Miss State and SMU will all likely spend significant time in the top 25. I also wouldn’t count out Houston, Navy and Temple being there at some point.

The most important question though is will Tulane spend any time in the Top 25?
Tulane has the least returning production in the AAC using ESPN’s methodology and Northwestern has the most returning in the B1G. No one would be surprised if Tulane lost to both Northwestern - and - MS State, and that would remove any chance of a Tulane being in the top 25 unless it made it to 7-2 or so and those two teams ended up with lofty records as well, and, in order to reach 7-2 with losses to Northwestern and MS State, Tulane would have to beat Navy, Houston, SMU, UCF, and Temple. That’s not happening, so the best bet is to presume Tulane won’t be in the top 25 at all.
Interesting break down. So essentially we need to win one of miss state/northwestern. And before someone jumps in with “ let’s just win !” Or “who cares if we are in the top 25”, it’s an online forum in the middle of the summer. I care. Tulane being in the top 25 will be a big deal for changing perception (locally and nationally) and for recruiting.

If Tulane wins its first 3 games (Sela, Northwestern and Navy) is that enough to get them into the top 25 ? Game 4 is against Miss State, and that win assuredly would get them in and send a statement nationally.
That would depend on whether Northwestern beats Michigan State (which it should) and whether Navy beats Notre Dame (which it likely won’t). Assuming Northwestern beats Michigan State, Navy loses to Notre Dame, and Tulane starts 3-0, Tulane would probably be in the receiving votes category with a limited amount of votes. If Navy beats Notre Dame, Northwestern beats Michigan State, and Tulane starts 3-0, then Tulane would most likely be right around the top 25 mark.
DfromCT
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Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:59 pm

Navy, Cincinnati, and Memphis finished in the top 25 last season. UCF should have, but their loss to Tulsa didn't sit well. Still, the were 7 points from undefeated.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

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Bicoastalwave
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Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:55 pm

DfromCT wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:59 pm
Navy, Cincinnati, and Memphis finished in the top 25 last season. UCF should have, but their loss to Tulsa didn't sit well. Still, the were 7 points from undefeated.
Also if SMU has shown up to their bowl they easily would have been in the top 25. Would have been quite the statement to have FIVE teams in the top 25 to end the season
Bicoastalwave
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Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:56 pm

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:05 pm
Bicoastalwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:39 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:28 pm
Bicoastalwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:22 pm
winwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:04 am
Interesting that we only have two ranked teams and none in the top 20.
Memphis, UCF, Miss State and SMU will all likely spend significant time in the top 25. I also wouldn’t count out Houston, Navy and Temple being there at some point.

The most important question though is will Tulane spend any time in the Top 25?
Tulane has the least returning production in the AAC using ESPN’s methodology and Northwestern has the most returning in the B1G. No one would be surprised if Tulane lost to both Northwestern - and - MS State, and that would remove any chance of a Tulane being in the top 25 unless it made it to 7-2 or so and those two teams ended up with lofty records as well, and, in order to reach 7-2 with losses to Northwestern and MS State, Tulane would have to beat Navy, Houston, SMU, UCF, and Temple. That’s not happening, so the best bet is to presume Tulane won’t be in the top 25 at all.
Interesting break down. So essentially we need to win one of miss state/northwestern. And before someone jumps in with “ let’s just win !” Or “who cares if we are in the top 25”, it’s an online forum in the middle of the summer. I care. Tulane being in the top 25 will be a big deal for changing perception (locally and nationally) and for recruiting.

If Tulane wins its first 3 games (Sela, Northwestern and Navy) is that enough to get them into the top 25 ? Game 4 is against Miss State, and that win assuredly would get them in and send a statement nationally.
That would depend on whether Northwestern beats Michigan State (which it should) and whether Navy beats Notre Dame (which it likely won’t). Assuming Northwestern beats Michigan State, Navy loses to Notre Dame, and Tulane starts 3-0, Tulane would probably be in the receiving votes category with a limited amount of votes. If Navy beats Notre Dame, Northwestern beats Michigan State, and Tulane starts 3-0, then Tulane would most likely be right around the top 25 mark.
This made me far more excited than it should have. Navy has a lot of National love after a big year last year. If they beat notre dame (Longshot), no doubt navy will be in the top 25. Beating them at that point would all but guarantee us in the top 25. It will be interesting if the more probably scenario of northwestern beats Mich State, and navy loses to notre dame and Tulane beats both (possible but a tall task), would that would be enough for Tulane to sneak into the top 25. I think you’re right we may need to beat Miss State.
winwave
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Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:53 pm

We absolutely need to beat MSU. Even that might not get us in. No one believes in us after the epic second half fail last season. A lot of people stepped up for us voting wise and then we Tulaned. Hoping this season is different.
JUST WIN TULANE! NO MORE EXCUSES! WE DESERVE BETTER!
Bicoastalwave
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Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:09 am

winwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:53 pm
We absolutely need to beat MSU. Even that might not get us in. No one believes in us after the epic second half fail last season. A lot of people stepped up for us voting wise and then we Tulaned. Hoping this season is different.
I have the opposite view. Buzzing around the top 25 also receiving votes list for a few weeks and voters seeing our name raises awareness and signals to the voters we aren't a joke anymore. Ideally it would be us buzzing around the actual top 25 list, but hey you have to crawl before you can walk. I think it will be easier this year than it was last year ( even if just slightly).
Last edited by Bicoastalwave on Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
winwave
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Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:12 am

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:09 am
winwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:53 pm
We absolutely need to beat MSU. Even that might not get us in. No one believes in us after the epic second half fail last season. A lot of people stepped up for us voting wise and then we Tulaned. Hoping this season is different.
I have the opposite view. Buzzing around the top 25 also receiving votes list for a few weeks and voters seeing our name raises awareness and signals to the voters we aren't a joke anymore. Ideally it would be us buzzing around the actual top 25 list, but hey you have to walk before you can crawl. I think it will be easier this year than it was last year ( even if just slightly).
Last year many in the media were talking us up as a sleeper team to watch. So they were inclined to look on us favorably and made it easier to get votes. We then ended up letting them down. So it is likely it will be a tougher sell for us this year.
JUST WIN TULANE! NO MORE EXCUSES! WE DESERVE BETTER!
Aberzombie1892
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Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:30 pm

I would be shocked if Tulane started 4-0 or 0-4, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it started anywhere in between those outcomes.
Bicoastalwave
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Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:39 pm

If I was a betting man, I would put my money on 3-1. Which would be a very good start. 4-0 wouldn’t shock me, but is unlikely. It would have us all riding on cloud 9 and basking in a top 25 ranking and national attention . . . And miss state fans on suicide watch & calling for leaches head. I think it would also intensify calls for LSU to play us . . . The Green cool aide is delicious.

I do feel confident we will have Navy’s number this year given the following factors:

1) they lose all world athlete/QB Perry
2) we should have beaten them last year
3) the game is at home
4) we don’t need to air the ball out to beat them
5) our talent continues to take a jump forward
Aberzombie1892
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Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:50 am

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:39 pm
If I was a betting man, I would put my money on 3-1. Which would be a very good start. 4-0 wouldn’t shock me, but is unlikely. It would have us all riding on cloud 9 and basking in a top 25 ranking and national attention . . . And miss state fans on suicide watch & calling for leaches head. I think it would also intensify calls for LSU to play us . . . The Green cool aide is delicious.

I do feel confident we will have Navy’s number this year given the following factors:

1) they lose all world athlete/QB Perry
2) we should have beaten them last year
3) the game is at home
4) we don’t need to air the ball out to beat them
5) our talent continues to take a jump forward
Those are all facts (or arguably facts), but Tulane is losing a lot from its 2019 team as well. While ESPN's returning production rankings are not necessarily gospel, those rankings utilize a reasonable methodology that ranks Tulane is 122 out of 130 possible teams in terms of returning production. That ranking and assessment seems in-line with what other 2020 college football previews are indicating for Tulane, and, if they are all even remotely accurate, it wouldn't be surprising if 2020 was a rebuilding year for Tulane in terms of W/L as compared to the prior two years with 2021 being the target year to see better results.
HoustonWave
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Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:05 am

winwave wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:12 am
Bicoastalwave wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:09 am
winwave wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:53 pm
We absolutely need to beat MSU. Even that might not get us in. No one believes in us after the epic second half fail last season. A lot of people stepped up for us voting wise and then we Tulaned. Hoping this season is different.
I have the opposite view. Buzzing around the top 25 also receiving votes list for a few weeks and voters seeing our name raises awareness and signals to the voters we aren't a joke anymore. Ideally it would be us buzzing around the actual top 25 list, but hey you have to walk before you can crawl. I think it will be easier this year than it was last year ( even if just slightly).
Last year many in the media were talking us up as a sleeper team to watch. So they were inclined to look on us favorably and made it easier to get votes. We then ended up letting them down. So it is likely it will be a tougher sell for us this year.
Exactly. We "Lucyed" our early media supporters. I love the term "Tulaned", a very descriptive verb. We've all been Tulaned many times over the years, and keep coming back for more.
Tulane is the University of Louisiana
Bicoastalwave
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Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:00 pm

I doubt any national reporters could tell you what happened last year in regards to Tulane’s season except for:
1) they beat houston with a crazy trick play
2) they won another bowl game for the first time
3) their Qb went to LSU (do they still run the triple option ? )
4) and MAYBE that they got a few votes for a few weeks for the top 25.
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Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:32 pm

I think we can beat Navy as well.
DfromCT
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Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:41 am

Wave QB wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:32 pm
I think we can beat Navy as well.
I think so, too. But will we beat Navy is the question. If you had to make a line today, I'm pretty sure Navy would be slightly favored.

There are no easy games on the schedule. Heck even our opener against Frank Scelfo's SLU Lions is not a gimme. They're a decent FCS team, and we should be able to win this going away. But they played Ole Miss tough last year on the road and eventually we're going to drop one vs. a top FCS team. Tulsa and ECU are much improved, Tulsa knocking off UCF and ECU having 600 yards of total offense in 3 of it's final 4 games last year should clue us into the fact that those are dangerous road games. On the road at UCF, Northwestern and Houston, are all tall hurdles. This is a tough schedule, and as we all well know, we have an unproven starting QB with zero experience behind him.

I hope we come out of the gates strong, because I think it will take a miracle to play a complete season this fall.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
winwave
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Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:59 am

SELA is a gimme. Love Frank and wish him the best but in year 5 it better damn well be a gimme or the program is screwed. We have more talent than Navy who lost key pieces and we catch them early. Tulsa and ECU have a long way to go. You have to be able to produce on both sides of the ball. NW was bad last year. Maybe they make some great jump but no obvious reason that they will. MSU will eventually improve but we catch them early and with this short off season they are at a disadvantage. UCF is no doubt tough. As to Houston we've beat them and then been creamed by them the next year. So who knows. Memphis has been tough for us.

The only game where we are clearly outmatched based on recent performances is UCF. This is an average schedule at best.

As we all know it depends on our QB play. If it's good we win 8 or more. If it's average we win 6. If it's below average we win 3-4.
JUST WIN TULANE! NO MORE EXCUSES! WE DESERVE BETTER!
Bicoastalwave
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Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:31 am

winwave wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:59 am
SELA is a gimme. Love Frank and wish him the best but in year 5 it better damn well be a gimme or the program is screwed. We have more talent than Navy who lost key pieces and we catch them early. Tulsa and ECU have a long way to go. You have to be able to produce on both sides of the ball. NW was bad last year. Maybe they make some great jump but no obvious reason that they will. MSU will eventually improve but we catch them early and with this short off season they are at a disadvantage. UCF is no doubt tough. As to Houston we've beat them and then been creamed by them the next year. So who knows. Memphis has been tough for us.

The only game where we are clearly outmatched based on recent performances is UCF. This is an average schedule at best.

As we all know it depends on our QB play. If it's good we win 8 or more. If it's average we win 6. If it's below average we win 3-4.
I agree with most of this sentiment except for the “average schedule at best”. Average for whom ? UCF, Miss State, Houston, Memphis, Navy, SMU & Temple will all likely be ranked at some point this season. I think houston will make a jump forward this year, and as will miss state. I do like we get miss state early, but they now have a All Pac 12 QB grad transfer who will play in the nfl starting for leach. That is going to be very tough. Can we beat elite QB play ? Time for our Defensive Line to show up at the party. Otherwise how are we beating MS State, Memphis, UCF, or SMU ?
winwave
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Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:17 am

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:31 am
winwave wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:59 am
SELA is a gimme. Love Frank and wish him the best but in year 5 it better damn well be a gimme or the program is screwed. We have more talent than Navy who lost key pieces and we catch them early. Tulsa and ECU have a long way to go. You have to be able to produce on both sides of the ball. NW was bad last year. Maybe they make some great jump but no obvious reason that they will. MSU will eventually improve but we catch them early and with this short off season they are at a disadvantage. UCF is no doubt tough. As to Houston we've beat them and then been creamed by them the next year. So who knows. Memphis has been tough for us.

The only game where we are clearly outmatched based on recent performances is UCF. This is an average schedule at best.

As we all know it depends on our QB play. If it's good we win 8 or more. If it's average we win 6. If it's below average we win 3-4.
I agree with most of this sentiment except for the “average schedule at best”. Average for whom ? UCF, Miss State, Houston, Memphis, Navy, SMU & Temple will all likely be ranked at some point this season. I think houston will make a jump forward this year, and as will miss state. I do like we get miss state early, but they now have a All Pac 12 QB grad transfer who will play in the nfl starting for leach. That is going to be very tough. Can we beat elite QB play ? Time for our Defensive Line to show up at the party. Otherwise how are we beating MS State, Memphis, UCF, or SMU ?
I seriously doubt those teams all getting ranked and more importantly finishing ranked in the final poll which is the only one that counts. UCF for sure. Maybe Memphis and MSU at some point but doubtful to finish the year ranked.
JUST WIN TULANE! NO MORE EXCUSES! WE DESERVE BETTER!
DfromCT
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Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:47 pm

Navy and Memphis both finished ranked and it was ludicrous that UCF was not. Both Navy and Memphis lost some key players, but so did we. And to think that our talent level is higher than teams that finished closer to the top of the polls than where Tulane was (approximately 60th) is ludicrous. despite playing them early. As others have pointed out, we're in the bottom 10 of 130 FBS teams in terms of returning production.

As far as Northwestern is concerned, they had a bad season mostly due to inept QB play. Their #1 QB got hurt in the opening game. They played 4 QB's, and were DFL in FBS qb ranking. This year they have eligible QB's that transferred from Clemson and Indiana, and a highly rated true frosh. A team that's a year removed from the B1G championship game that's looking to go bowling for the 5th time in 6 years will be considerable favorites when we play them.

MSU will be a tough challenge, This is a difficult schedule for a team without a proven QB and questions on the O=line and defensive secondary. We could easily go 4-8. I'd be shocked and overjoyed with 8-4.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
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