AAC + Future AAC

UCF, Cincinnati, UConn, ECU, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, SMU, Temple, Tulsa
winwave
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Off to the usual bad start in the Bowl season- 1-5 after this weekend.


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6-4-23:Now all of the mistakes Tulane has made finally catches up with them as they descend to CUSAAC.
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Houston beat ULL and Memphis beat Utah St. so now 3-5.

ECU is up in Coastal 10-0 at the start of the 2nd quarter.
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6-4-23:Now all of the mistakes Tulane has made finally catches up with them as they descend to CUSAAC.
winwave
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ECU finishes off Coastal 53-29. Believe it or not Ahlers is finally out of eligibility.
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6-4-23:Now all of the mistakes Tulane has made finally catches up with them as they descend to CUSAAC.
anEngineer
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Is the new AAC equal to the previous version? No! Is the new AAC still the premier G5 conference? Absolutely! There will always be a breakout school in the Sunbelt or CUSA that contends for the G5 rep in the playoff, but the AAC will be there year after year.
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Leaving Teams
Cincy loss to Louisville 24-7
Houston win to U-LL 23-16

Future Teams
UTSA loss to Troy 18-12
UAB win to Miami (OH) 24-20
Rice loss to USM 38-24
UNT loss to Boise State 35-32

Remaining Teams
SMU loss to BYU 24-23
Memphis win to Utah State 38-10
ECU win to Coastal Carolina 53-29

This is a pretty damn good result for 5-5 if you're looking at the future of the conference. The teams leaving underwhelmed, the teams coming in did alright, and most importantly SMU/ECU/Memphis played well.

If you haven't watched the UTSA loss, it's about as WTF as it gets. UTSA was the much better team, except for 5 turnovers and 105 yards of penalties. Ouch.

SMU had BYU beat, rolling with momentum to win the game. They went for a 2-point conversion and the win with 8 seconds left. That's tough.

Literally, one or two plays in those games are different and everyone is going into next season thinking the AAC got better.


UNT (a team that fired their head coach!!) played MWC champ Boise to a close one. Rice, who shouldn't have even been bowling, had the lead on USM in the 2nd half.
winwave
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That's 4-5. You can try and spin it anyway you want the conference takes a clear step down next season. Could it still be the top G5 next year yes it could but that would say more about the rest of the G5. We will no longer be P6. We all hope these schools develop over time but remember they will be working at a disadvantage of not getting full shares.
BAYWAVE&Sophandros are SPINELESS COWARDS
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6-4-23:Now all of the mistakes Tulane has made finally catches up with them as they descend to CUSAAC.
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winwave wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 6:18 am That's 4-5. You can try and spin it anyway you want the conference takes a clear step down next season. Could it still be the top G5 next year yes it could but that would say more about the rest of the G5. We will no longer be P6. We all hope these schools develop over time but remember they will be working at a disadvantage of not getting full shares.
The one bright spot is that with those schools in the league we will probably get on ESPN network TV more vs ESPN+
Be proactive, being reactive is for losers..
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DfromCT
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anEngineer wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 12:24 am Is the new AAC equal to the previous version? No! Is the new AAC still the premier G5 conference? Absolutely! There will always be a breakout school in the Sunbelt or CUSA that contends for the G5 rep in the playoff, but the AAC will be there year after year.
You can keep telling yourself that, but I don't agree. The SunBelt is as deep or deeper than the new AAC. I cannot agree that there's a marked difference in quality, I'd even argue the Belt is going to be better going forward. Truth be told, the AAC had a down year in 2022 and really was no better than the rest of the G5.
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DfromCT wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 6:37 am
anEngineer wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 12:24 am Is the new AAC equal to the previous version? No! Is the new AAC still the premier G5 conference? Absolutely! There will always be a breakout school in the Sunbelt or CUSA that contends for the G5 rep in the playoff, but the AAC will be there year after year.
You can keep telling yourself that, but I don't agree. The SunBelt is as deep or deeper than the new AAC. I cannot agree that there's a marked difference in quality, I'd even argue the Belt is going to be better going forward. Truth be told, the AAC had a down year in 2022 and really was no better than the rest of the G5.
I did a bit of digging. It's interesting when you look at the history of the AAC. We've had some schools that help increase the rep of the best teams, that really weren't that good. Schools like Tulsa, Temple, SMU. They start to receive votes in the polls, even if they finish the season mediocre. It's not exactly clear that a deep league actually results in better conference perception. Having a handful of teams that are regularly at the top has resulted in the highest rankings, rather than having a lot of teams ranked.

This is what I found:

YEAR ----- # of teams that RV at some point ----- # of teams that finished top25 ----- Highest ranked team EOY
2014 ----- 5 ----- 1 ----- 25
2015 ----- 6 ----- 2 ----- 8
2016 ----- 8 ----- 1 ----- 19
2017 ----- 7 ----- 3 ----- 6
2018 ----- 5 ----- 2 ----- 11
2019 ----- 7 ----- 4 ----- 17
2020 ----- 9 ----- 1 ----- 8
2021 ----- 7 ----- 2 ----- 4

I think the only thing that's really clear is that voters have come to respect the AAC more and more. More, different teams have RV and the winner of the league has been ranked better and better. Even if the overall number of good teams (top25) stays more or less the same.


I wanted to do head-to-head, aligning the best performers of each league. I took their records of the last 3 complete seasons; 2022, 2021, 2019. Here's how that looks by win percentage:

UTSA (27 - 13) (68%)
SMU (25-13) (66%)
Memphis (25 - 14) (64%)
UAB (25 - 15) (63%)
FAU (21 - 17) (55%)
Tulane (20-18) (53%)
ECU (19 - 18) (51%)
Navy (19 -18) (51%)
UNT (17 - 22) (44%)
Tulsa (16 - 21) (43%)
Charlotte (15 - 22) (41%)
Temple (14 - 23) (38%)
Rice (12 - 25) (32%)
USF (7 - 29) (19%)

App State (29 - 11) (73%)
ULL (30 - 11) (73%)
James Madison (8-3) (73%)
Coastal Carolina (25 - 13) (66%)
Marshall (24 - 15) (62%)
Troy (22 - 14) (61%)
Georgia State (19 - 19) (50%)
South Alabama (17 - 20) (46%)
Southern Miss (17 - 21) (45%)
Georgia Southern (16 - 22) (42%)
Texas State (11 - 15) (42%)
ULM (13 - 23) (36%)
Ark State (13 - 24) (35%)
Old Dominion (10 - 27) (27%)

So head to head:

UTSA vs. App State
SMU vs. ULL
Memphis vs. James Madison
UAB vs. Coastal Carolina
FAU vs. Marshall
Tulane vs. Troy
ECU vs. Georgia State
Navy vs. Southern Alabama
UNT vs. Southern Miss
Tulsa vs. Georgia Southern
Charlotte vs. Texas State
Temple vs. ULM
Rice vs. Ark State
USF vs. Old Dominion

I'm sorry but I'm picking the left side of that in almost every matchup. Especially when you consider the number of additional in-conference wins available now that the Big3 have left, the top7 of the AAC should all be in contention for top-25 every year. Plus you gotta imagine that USF and Temple regress to their historical norms.

AAC 2.0 should be quite a fun little conference....praying it's only a short ride til we get the ef out!
DfromCT
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Ruski wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 11:14 am So head to head:

UTSA vs. App State
SMU vs. ULL
Memphis vs. James Madison
UAB vs. Coastal Carolina
FAU vs. Marshall
Tulane vs. Troy
ECU vs. Georgia State
Navy vs. Southern Alabama
UNT vs. Southern Miss
Tulsa vs. Georgia Southern
Charlotte vs. Texas State
Temple vs. ULM
Rice vs. Ark State
USF vs. Old Dominion

I'm sorry but I'm picking the left side of that in almost every matchup. Especially when you consider the number of additional in-conference wins available now that the Big3 have left, the top7 of the AAC should all be in contention for top-25 every year. Plus you gotta imagine that USF and Temple regress to their historical norms.

AAC 2.0 should be quite a fun little conference....praying it's only a short ride til we get the ef out!
That right there is where we differ. I'm taking the right side in almost every matchup. I really am, and think they're more exciting teams to watch. I'd much rather see Tulane play ULM than Rice, JMU than UAB, USM than UNT. I think they're more committed to winning as well. And they're working with a whole lot less. Coaches will move up into the AAC because of the money, not necessarily the football. I'd be willing to bet today that JMU makes the NY6 or a playoff spot before Memphis does, and this is their first season at the FBS level.
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We will be in a P5 conference quicker than you think. This will all be a moot point.
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arkhou02 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 1:21 pm We will be in a P5 conference quicker than you think. This will all be a moot point.
Please let it be so.
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GreenLantern wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 1:22 pm
arkhou02 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 1:21 pm We will be in a P5 conference quicker than you think. This will all be a moot point.
Please let it be so.
Amen.

Just win.

1-0 in Dallas.
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DfromCT wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 12:53 pm
Ruski wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 11:14 am So head to head:

UTSA vs. App State
SMU vs. ULL
Memphis vs. James Madison
UAB vs. Coastal Carolina
FAU vs. Marshall
Tulane vs. Troy
ECU vs. Georgia State
Navy vs. Southern Alabama
UNT vs. Southern Miss
Tulsa vs. Georgia Southern
Charlotte vs. Texas State
Temple vs. ULM
Rice vs. Ark State
USF vs. Old Dominion

I'm sorry but I'm picking the left side of that in almost every matchup. Especially when you consider the number of additional in-conference wins available now that the Big3 have left, the top7 of the AAC should all be in contention for top-25 every year. Plus you gotta imagine that USF and Temple regress to their historical norms.

AAC 2.0 should be quite a fun little conference....praying it's only a short ride til we get the ef out!
That right there is where we differ. I'm taking the right side in almost every matchup. I really am, and think they're more exciting teams to watch. I'd much rather see Tulane play ULM than Rice, JMU than UAB, USM than UNT. I think they're more committed to winning as well. And they're working with a whole lot less. Coaches will move up into the AAC because of the money, not necessarily the football. I'd be willing to bet today that JMU makes the NY6 or a playoff spot before Memphis does, and this is their first season at the FBS level.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But....

UTSA is the next UCF. They truly deliver their huge market. In their 10+ win seasons they've had much bigger crowds (30-40k) than App State has had in theirs. There's nothing to dislike about them.

SMU is gonna burn cash until they get in the PAC/ACC. I think Lashlee is gonna make them scary good. But even if not, the cash will bring them 4/5 stars and new coaches until they find someone who does.

The Liberty stadium's $200m renovations show you all you need to know about Memphis' commitment to winning and getting out of G5. The AAC has given that metro area a taste of football fun, they're not going back.

ECU is finally back to bowl games and suddenly they have 20k season tickets sold.

UAB following up Bill Clark with Dilfer is a big WTF move. Was really hoping they'd come in as another UTSA. Their AD has done miracles with their resurrection (fundraising, new stadium, IPF), he must've really been impressed to take the chance.

FAU has been playing D1 football for 15 years and have had Howard Schnellenberger, Lane Kiffin, and Tom Herman as head coaches. That shows you their ambition. Herman is not Taggert.

That's 6 solid programs, who should be at least as good as any SunBelt team. With much higher ceilings.

Throw in Temple/USF/Tulsa, always have good seasons every few years. We all know the allure of the Navy brand. UNT/Charlotte/Rice all have worts for sure. I could try to defend them but won't.


But if you realize that you only need a few top brands to carry the league (SEC, Big10, ACC), instead of a deep league (PAC, Big12) then you'll see that the AAC is setup to be the top G5 by far. The money we can spend on coaches and facilities, the recruiting territories (locking up Texas!), and the NIL potential that comes with playing in cities/big endowment schools, the SunBelt isn't that scary.

I could be totally wrong. We could end up missing this chance collectively as a conference and sliding back to CUSA oblivion. But I wouldn't bet on it.
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Without furthering the debate, I will point out that App State is in Boone, NC. It's been 40 years since I've been in Boone, but when I was last there the most TV sets not on campus were in the bars surrounding the campus! It was the penultimate college town. San Antonio has a much bigger metropolis to draw from. I would bet Boone (named for Daniel Boone!) was about 10,000 residents back in the day, and given its location, I wouldn't imagine it's grown to more than 20k. Beautiful place in the mountains of North Carolina.
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DfromCT wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 6:37 am
anEngineer wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 12:24 am Is the new AAC equal to the previous version? No! Is the new AAC still the premier G5 conference? Absolutely! There will always be a breakout school in the Sunbelt or CUSA that contends for the G5 rep in the playoff, but the AAC will be there year after year.
You can keep telling yourself that, but I don't agree. The SunBelt is as deep or deeper than the new AAC. I cannot agree that there's a marked difference in quality, I'd even argue the Belt is going to be better going forward. Truth be told, the AAC had a down year in 2022 and really was no better than the rest of the G5.
Yes the AAC was better than the rest of the G5. Numbers don't lie. It's been head and shoulders above the rest of the G5 for a very long time. Yes it does get weaker next season, but the Sun Belt will have trouble keeping up long-term financially.
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arkhou02 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 1:21 pm We will be in a P5 conference quicker than you think. This will all be a moot point.
Which one?
Tulane is the University of Louisiana
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HoustonWave wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:05 pm
arkhou02 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 1:21 pm We will be in a P5 conference quicker than you think. This will all be a moot point.
Which one?
Probably the ACC if they lose teams to the SEC.

But we need to improve facilities, keep winning in football and breakthrough in basketball.
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greenie78 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 4:15 pm Yes the AAC was better than the rest of the G5. Numbers don't lie. It's been head and shoulders above the rest of the G5 for a very long time. Yes it does get weaker next season, but the Sun Belt will have trouble keeping up long-term financially.
In 2022 The AAC was head and shoulders above the rest of the G5? By what measure if "numbers don't lie"?
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UTSA is not the next UCF. They won 11 this year. They had 7 home games.. They listed attendance 0f 37k for the Houston game and 41k for the conference championship game that they hosted. For the other 5 the listed crowds were in the low to mid 20's. And we know the listed numbers aren't the actual attendance.
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6-4-23:Now all of the mistakes Tulane has made finally catches up with them as they descend to CUSAAC.
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winwave wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:24 pm UTSA is not the next UCF. They won 11 this year. They had 7 home games.. They listed attendance 0f 37k for the Houston game and 41k for the conference championship game that they hosted. For the other 5 the listed crowds were in the low to mid 20's. And we know the listed numbers aren't the actual attendance.
In their 11th year of football existence! UCF averaged 19,700 fans at the Citrus Bowl before moving on campus.

And we're currently in a time that FBS attendance is at its lowest since 1981!

Meanwhile, the mighty SunBelt is averaging 18k 😂
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I can’t remember the exact year we played at UTSA, but I was impressed with the spirit I encountered there.

They had many fans who were somewhat enthusiastic even though they had no direct connection.

Quite a few were San Antonians who were there just to have something to do for the day.. sort of a minor league baseball vibe.

I think attendance was in the high 20K.
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Ruski wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:33 pm
winwave wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:24 pm UTSA is not the next UCF. They won 11 this year. They had 7 home games.. They listed attendance 0f 37k for the Houston game and 41k for the conference championship game that they hosted. For the other 5 the listed crowds were in the low to mid 20's. And we know the listed numbers aren't the actual attendance.
In their 11th year of football existence! UCF averaged 19,700 fans at the Citrus Bowl before moving on campus.

And we're currently in a time that FBS attendance is at its lowest since 1981!

Meanwhile, the mighty SunBelt is averaging 18k 😂
The numbers weren't what you claimed. They have a very far way to go to be what UCF was .
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If you look at the winning percentages between the left and right sides, they look pretty comparable -- AT FIRST GLANCE.

Then, when you realize most of the left side played a far tougher strength of schedule than the right side did, that tilts the field in the AACs favor.
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winwave wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 6:12 pm
Ruski wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:33 pm
winwave wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:24 pm UTSA is not the next UCF. They won 11 this year. They had 7 home games.. They listed attendance 0f 37k for the Houston game and 41k for the conference championship game that they hosted. For the other 5 the listed crowds were in the low to mid 20's. And we know the listed numbers aren't the actual attendance.
In their 11th year of football existence! UCF averaged 19,700 fans at the Citrus Bowl before moving on campus.

And we're currently in a time that FBS attendance is at its lowest since 1981!

Meanwhile, the mighty SunBelt is averaging 18k 😂
The numbers weren't what you claimed. They have a very far way to go to be what UCF was .
UCF is a dump. Should have never been invited to Big 12. We have so much more to offer. And if we get P5 money, watch out. People are certainly on notice and see the potential. Quit whining about next year. We have a great coach, a great recruiting class, and depth across the board. And Tulane fans are excited. Players are excited and coming back to play for the Tulane community. This will continue because WF is in charge. Roll Wave!!!
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