Interesting tidbit regarding future P5 expansion

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RobertM320
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https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/colle ... 2-schools/


Found this in my notifications this morning and it was pretty interesting. Seems the current Big Ten commissioner has left to go to the Chicago Bears. He was the biggest proponent for B1G expansion, and was successful in getting USC and UCLA to join.

But he wasn't done. He's been also actively trying to get Washington and Oregon. With him leaving, the indications are the B1G won't be looking to poach the PAC12 any further. The Big 12 was actually hoping for a PAC-12 implosion, which would provide them more options to expand further. Since it looks like that won't happen, it would mean the Big 12 would once again have to look elsewhere for any expansion candidates. We just need to keep progressing and we'd likely be near the top of that list.


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In the scenario you described:

- BIG10 grabs Wash/Oregon
- BIG12 grabs Arizonas, Colorado, Utah

The PAC would be left with Oregon State, Washington State, Cal, and Stanford. Those schools are left with really terrible choices. Maybe Stanford and Cal will get life rafts. But they would have to hold their academic snobbery and maybe join the Big12. Wash St and Oregon St would really only have the choice to go the Mountain West.

At this point, the P5 are just the P4. But with the current playoff expansion providing access for the top 6 champions, it all but assures the AAC a playoff spot every single year.

If Tulane actually continues to invest in football and regularly competes for the AAC championship, this would be a really good plan B to an actual p5 invitation.
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Really what this shows is that the PAC is very vulnerable and needs to be proactive. Big12 flipped the script with their additions, PAC needs to do the same. The problem is that Big12 took all the obvious schools.

Adding SDSU is so obvious, they really need to get over their elitism and do it already.

SMU would fit their profile and help get them into Texas.

After that it gets dicey. A contentious but bold move would be to add Zaga all sports + Air Force football.

And after that pick one of Colorado State, Boise, Nevada, UNLV, Fresno St. All are pretty ugly options, Colorado State the most attractive but not sure if big brother Boulder would allow it.
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Yes, but I think the point of the article was with Warren leaving the Big Ten, they don't plan on continuing the push to steal Wash and Oregon. If PAC-12 stays as is or even adds SDSU or someone else, it means the Big 12's only avenue toward more expansion would be the AAC again.
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Big 12 isn't going to expand just to expand. The TV partners won't be willing to give more money unless the value is there.
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RobertM320
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winwave wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 9:54 am Big 12 isn't going to expand just to expand. The TV partners won't be willing to give more money unless the value is there.
I didn't say expand just to expand. However, the Big Ten expands in reaction to SEC expansion. As those conferences move to 16 teams or even 20, there will be more pressure on the Big 12 to expand beyond 12. If nothing else, the more you have the easier it is to survive if you get poached. If the PAC-12 were to lose Wash and Oregon, they'd be scrambling. I'm willing to bet the Big 12 wont stay at 12 teams forever.
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If the PAC gets poached yes the Big 12 likely expands by adding from the PAC. If the PAC doesn't get poached, which is the part I responded to, the Big 12 likely doesn't expand. When they went down to 10 teams they din't expand. Instead they go the rule changed in order to still have a CCG.
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winwave wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:31 am If the PAC gets poached yes the Big 12 likely expands by adding from the PAC. If the PAC doesn't get poached, which is the part I responded to, the Big 12 likely doesn't expand. When they went down to 10 teams they din't expand. Instead they go the rule changed in order to still have a CCG.
I agree with you, up to a certain point. If the Big Ten and SEC continue to push to 18 or 20 teams, Big 12 will have to expand to stay competitive, because The P2 wont allow them an equal seat the playoff table with only half the number of teams. They're not going to let Big 12 champion have a seat by winning a 12 team conf, while SEC or Big Ten champ needs to win a 20 team conf. It'll either be expand, or they'll end up wanting to modify the playoff and give B1G and SEC a guaranteed two teams each.

Bottom line, if B1G and SEC get to 18-20 teams each, Big 12 WILL expand. When that is, no idea, but it will happen.
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For the SEC and B1G to expand to 18-20, at least a couple of those teams would likely come from the Big12, so they would have to expand just to stay where they are.
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Exactly. Which was the entire reason for my original post. Because we're finally getting ourselves to a point where, when the chairs shuffle again, we're firmly in the mix.
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RobertM320 wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 12:57 pm
winwave wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:31 am If the PAC gets poached yes the Big 12 likely expands by adding from the PAC. If the PAC doesn't get poached, which is the part I responded to, the Big 12 likely doesn't expand. When they went down to 10 teams they din't expand. Instead they go the rule changed in order to still have a CCG.
I agree with you, up to a certain point. If the Big Ten and SEC continue to push to 18 or 20 teams, Big 12 will have to expand to stay competitive, because The P2 wont allow them an equal seat the playoff table with only half the number of teams. They're not going to let Big 12 champion have a seat by winning a 12 team conf, while SEC or Big Ten champ needs to win a 20 team conf. It'll either be expand, or they'll end up wanting to modify the playoff and give B1G and SEC a guaranteed two teams each.

Bottom line, if B1G and SEC get to 18-20 teams each, Big 12 WILL expand. When that is, no idea, but it will happen.
Have to agree to disagree. As I posted above the Big 12 didn't expand when reduced to 10. The SEC and Big 10 are going to get more than one spot every year. Plus if they would expand to those large numbers ,and that's a big if, wouldn't leave many desirable schools to bring in.

Bottom line is we are all desperate to see us get in a P5 so people come up with scenario after scenario. Could there be more expansion. Sure. But there may not be as schools don't want to split the money up more than they have to. All Tulane can do is dominate the new conference in football and basketball and win against good OOC schedules in order to be attractive if expansion occurs.
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Ruski wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 1:10 am Really what this shows is that the PAC is very vulnerable and needs to be proactive. Big12 flipped the script with their additions, PAC needs to do the same. The problem is that Big12 took all the obvious schools.

Adding SDSU is so obvious, they really need to get over their elitism and do it already.

SMU would fit their profile and help get them into Texas.

After that it gets dicey. A contentious but bold move would be to add Zaga all sports + Air Force football.

And after that pick one of Colorado State, Boise, Nevada, UNLV, Fresno St. All are pretty ugly options, Colorado State the most attractive but not sure if big brother Boulder would allow it.
If the PAC10 expands, it needs to go big (to 16 and pod play) and needs to go to the CTZ, by adding SMU, Tulane and either CSU, Memphis or Rice (if they are compelled to get into the Houston TV market)--but their commish seems paralyzed and may be spending his time trying to form another alliance :o .

I just saw the 2023 College TV rankings, and Tulane moved up one spot from #66 to #65. The only G5 schools (not including Cincy and UCF) ahead of us were CSU (#64), Army and Navy. We were ahead of many P5 schools including UH as well as Arizona, Colorado and a number of other PAC12 teams. With our national alumni base, we actually have quite a few TV eyeballs when were competitively relevant, something that Dannen and Fitts need to be pushing. It's also worth noting that more of our current freshman class came from California than any other state.
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winwave wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 2:15 pm
RobertM320 wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 12:57 pm
winwave wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:31 am If the PAC gets poached yes the Big 12 likely expands by adding from the PAC. If the PAC doesn't get poached, which is the part I responded to, the Big 12 likely doesn't expand. When they went down to 10 teams they din't expand. Instead they go the rule changed in order to still have a CCG.
I agree with you, up to a certain point. If the Big Ten and SEC continue to push to 18 or 20 teams, Big 12 will have to expand to stay competitive, because The P2 wont allow them an equal seat the playoff table with only half the number of teams. They're not going to let Big 12 champion have a seat by winning a 12 team conf, while SEC or Big Ten champ needs to win a 20 team conf. It'll either be expand, or they'll end up wanting to modify the playoff and give B1G and SEC a guaranteed two teams each.

Bottom line, if B1G and SEC get to 18-20 teams each, Big 12 WILL expand. When that is, no idea, but it will happen.
Have to agree to disagree. As I posted above the Big 12 didn't expand when reduced to 10. The SEC and Big 10 are going to get more than one spot every year. Plus if they would expand to those large numbers ,and that's a big if, wouldn't leave many desirable schools to bring in.

Bottom line is we are all desperate to see us get in a P5 so people come up with scenario after scenario. Could there be more expansion. Sure. But there may not be as schools don't want to split the money up more than they have to. All Tulane can do is dominate the new conference in football and basketball and win against good OOC schedules in order to be attractive if expansion occurs.
And if Tulane can do as you outline in the last sentence, not only will our attendance improve as demonstrated in the back half of this year, but we'll move further up those TV rankings--which is the main driver these days.
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To date, it seems that when conferences stand-pat, bad things tend to happen. In that regard, the Big 12 has vulnerabilities at both its new western outpost in Provo (which might be seduced by a surviving and reformed PAC16), and on its east flank (SEC and ACC) where WVa., Cincy and perhaps UCF might opt for an offer from either conference. In each case, those Big12 schools have regional interests that will never align well with the Big 12.
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HoustonWave wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:14 pm
I just saw the 2023 College TV rankings, and Tulane moved up one spot from #66 to #65. The only G5 schools (not including Cincy and UCF) ahead of us were CSU (#64), Army and Navy. We were ahead of many P5 schools including UH as well as Arizona, Colorado and a number of other PAC12 teams. With our national alumni base, we actually have quite a few TV eyeballs when were competitively relevant, something that Dannen and Fitts need to be pushing. It's also worth noting that more of our current freshman class came from California than any other state.
I think you make a very undervalued point here, HoustonWave. If we can actually be competitively relevant, our alumni are scattered throughout the country. which means TV is a better judge of our draw than attendance. Would be interesting to see ratings for the Cotton Bowl in different markets, and see if there's any correlation to the national distribution of our alums.
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HoustonWave wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:19 pm
winwave wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 2:15 pm
RobertM320 wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 12:57 pm

I agree with you, up to a certain point. If the Big Ten and SEC continue to push to 18 or 20 teams, Big 12 will have to expand to stay competitive, because The P2 wont allow them an equal seat the playoff table with only half the number of teams. They're not going to let Big 12 champion have a seat by winning a 12 team conf, while SEC or Big Ten champ needs to win a 20 team conf. It'll either be expand, or they'll end up wanting to modify the playoff and give B1G and SEC a guaranteed two teams each.

Bottom line, if B1G and SEC get to 18-20 teams each, Big 12 WILL expand. When that is, no idea, but it will happen.
Have to agree to disagree. As I posted above the Big 12 didn't expand when reduced to 10. The SEC and Big 10 are going to get more than one spot every year. Plus if they would expand to those large numbers ,and that's a big if, wouldn't leave many desirable schools to bring in.

Bottom line is we are all desperate to see us get in a P5 so people come up with scenario after scenario. Could there be more expansion. Sure. But there may not be as schools don't want to split the money up more than they have to. All Tulane can do is dominate the new conference in football and basketball and win against good OOC schedules in order to be attractive if expansion occurs.
And if Tulane can do as you outline in the last sentence, not only will our attendance improve as demonstrated in the back half of this year, but we'll move further up those TV rankings--which is the main driver these days.
:cheers:
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The most likely outcome is that we end up with 4 P conferences of 16 teams. The Big 12 saved themselves by turning into predators after being cherry-picked. But for how long? One of the Big 12, ACC and PAC 12 will not survive, and if the ACC gets Notre Dame, even if FSU and Miami leave they'll be just fine. I don't see any conference, other than in a move of complete desperation, going to more than 16 teams.
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Personally, I think 16 is a farce. How can you legitimately have a "conference champion if most of the teams don't even play each other. Even with 16 teams, if you're playing 9 conf games a year, you may be seeing some teams only once every 3 years. Is it really a conference at that point? I can potentially see a season where two schools don't play each other at all in any of the three major sports the same year. Are they really conference mates at that point?
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HoustonWave wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:14 pm
Ruski wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 1:10 am Really what this shows is that the PAC is very vulnerable and needs to be proactive. Big12 flipped the script with their additions, PAC needs to do the same. The problem is that Big12 took all the obvious schools.

Adding SDSU is so obvious, they really need to get over their elitism and do it already.

SMU would fit their profile and help get them into Texas.

After that it gets dicey. A contentious but bold move would be to add Zaga all sports + Air Force football.

And after that pick one of Colorado State, Boise, Nevada, UNLV, Fresno St. All are pretty ugly options, Colorado State the most attractive but not sure if big brother Boulder would allow it.
If the PAC10 expands, it needs to go big (to 16 and pod play) and needs to go to the CTZ, by adding SMU, Tulane and either CSU, Memphis or Rice (if they are compelled to get into the Houston TV market)--but their commish seems paralyzed and may be spending his time trying to form another alliance :o .

I just saw the 2023 College TV rankings, and Tulane moved up one spot from #66 to #65. The only G5 schools (not including Cincy and UCF) ahead of us were CSU (#64), Army and Navy. We were ahead of many P5 schools including UH as well as Arizona, Colorado and a number of other PAC12 teams. With our national alumni base, we actually have quite a few TV eyeballs when were competitively relevant, something that Dannen and Fitts need to be pushing. It's also worth noting that more of our current freshman class came from California than any other state.
Sorry but I'm gonna call BS. You gotta link to backup that TV claim?
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RobertM320 wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:41 pm Personally, I think 16 is a farce. How can you legitimately have a "conference champion if most of the teams don't even play each other. Even with 16 teams, if you're playing 9 conf games a year, you may be seeing some teams only once every 3 years. Is it really a conference at that point? I can potentially see a season where two schools don't play each other at all in any of the three major sports the same year. Are they really conference mates at that point?
I agree that, purely on legitimacy, there should never be more than 8-10 in a conference. When teams don't play each other frequently or annually, declaring one as a champion over another is speculation. Conferences are now only about MONEY and sucking up as many money teams as possible is really all they care about. With the new playoff format, finishing 2nd (maybe even 3rd in the SEC or B1G) is going to get you in the playoff and make more money for the conference.
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anEngineer wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:18 am
RobertM320 wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:41 pm Personally, I think 16 is a farce. How can you legitimately have a "conference champion if most of the teams don't even play each other. Even with 16 teams, if you're playing 9 conf games a year, you may be seeing some teams only once every 3 years. Is it really a conference at that point? I can potentially see a season where two schools don't play each other at all in any of the three major sports the same year. Are they really conference mates at that point?
I agree that, purely on legitimacy, there should never be more than 8-10 in a conference. When teams don't play each other frequently or annually, declaring one as a champion over another is speculation. Conferences are now only about MONEY and sucking up as many money teams as possible is really all they care about. With the new playoff format, finishing 2nd (maybe even 3rd in the SEC or B1G) is going to get you in the playoff and make more money for the conference.
Valid points and opinions. The thing you got right the most is money being the driving factor, and that's NEVER changing. 16 seems to be the number that conferences are going to settle on. The days of 8-10 teams in a conference are gone forever, at least in the money conferences. You'll see 1 division of 64 before you'll see a "power" conference of 8 again.
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The Pac10 biggest obstacle, is their time zone....most eastern and central time zone residents hardly ever watch a pac10 game...the pac10 needs the central time zone, the central time zone one does not need the pac10...the only three schools the big12 will consider from the pac10 are colroado, 'zona and 'zona state and that is for the east of travel for all sports teams and provides regional playmates for byu.... all the others are pain in the business class....... eventually Kansas is headed to the ACC, which needs the central time zone, and will give them the KCMO tv market, Memphis State and/or Tulane may be included in that expansion
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I continue to think that no one wants any part of the Memphis Athletics Club. A school exists there only to justify participation in NCAA football and basketball. No group of P5 university presidents will sign off on that.
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anEngineer wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 11:55 am I continue to think that no one wants any part of the Memphis Athletics Club. A school exists there only to justify participation in NCAA football and basketball. No group of P5 university presidents will sign off on that.
I agree, but FedEx money and the TV market may be hard to ignore, I mean who the hell would have thought North Carolina Charlotte had to be included in any conference expansion, except for the TV sets
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Ruski wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:59 am
HoustonWave wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:14 pm
Ruski wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 1:10 am Really what this shows is that the PAC is very vulnerable and needs to be proactive. Big12 flipped the script with their additions, PAC needs to do the same. The problem is that Big12 took all the obvious schools.

Adding SDSU is so obvious, they really need to get over their elitism and do it already.

SMU would fit their profile and help get them into Texas.

After that it gets dicey. A contentious but bold move would be to add Zaga all sports + Air Force football.

And after that pick one of Colorado State, Boise, Nevada, UNLV, Fresno St. All are pretty ugly options, Colorado State the most attractive but not sure if big brother Boulder would allow it.
If the PAC10 expands, it needs to go big (to 16 and pod play) and needs to go to the CTZ, by adding SMU, Tulane and either CSU, Memphis or Rice (if they are compelled to get into the Houston TV market)--but their commish seems paralyzed and may be spending his time trying to form another alliance :o .

I just saw the 2023 College TV rankings, and Tulane moved up one spot from #66 to #65. The only G5 schools (not including Cincy and UCF) ahead of us were CSU (#64), Army and Navy. We were ahead of many P5 schools including UH as well as Arizona State, Colorado and a number of other PAC12 teams. With our national alumni base, we actually have quite a few TV eyeballs when were competitively relevant, something that Dannen and Fitts need to be pushing. It's also worth noting that more of our current freshman class came from California than any other state.
Sorry but I'm gonna call BS. You gotta link to backup that TV claim?
Ruski, it's always easier to call BS on a post than it is to do a little Google research. Here, I'll spoon feed it to you.

Tulane is the University of Louisiana
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