Next Wave of Re-Alignment

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anEngineer
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RobertM320 wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:52 pm
NOLABigSteve wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:14 am The only way we don't wind up in CUSA 2.0 and on the outside looking in is to ultimately get into one of the P5's.

Again, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS P6. There never will be so we need to stop flying that damn flag.
And I really think our best and likely only target should be the ACC.
I agree that the ACC is the conference that we best fit into with regard to school types and sizes.


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nawlinspete
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We should not target only the ACC.

In addition to the ACC we should court the B1G ; how do we know they would not think outside the box and make Tulane their Gulf Coast AAU member just as they thought outside the box for Maryland becoming their Atlantic Ocean member ?

And who knows about the Big12 ; they certainly make geographic sense when they , too , expand to 16 .

Would the PAC12 want a Gulf Coast , Central Time Zone , AAU member ? Probably . They will expand just as the others have , will .
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nawlinspete wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:25 pm We should not target only the ACC.

In addition to the ACC we should court the B1G ; how do we know they would not think outside the box and make Tulane their Gulf Coast AAU member just as they thought outside the box for Maryland becoming their Atlantic Ocean member ?

And who knows about the Big12 ; they certainly make geographic sense when they , too , expand to 16 .

Would the PAC12 want a Gulf Coast , Central Time Zone , AAU member ? Probably . They will expand just as the others have , will .
I didn't say it SHOULD BE our only target, I said likely. Big 12 will ultimately go away as a Power conference, just like the Big East did. I'd rather put our efforts into ACC and B1G, although I think B1G would be a real longshot. They have no other schools in the South, so we'd be to B1G what West Virginia is to the Big 12, a scheduling nightmare.
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I know it's easy to assume the Big 12 is going to lose it's P5 status but that's not a given. Especially if it adds Boise and Memphis.
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At which they're the Little 8, which everyone said didn't deserve P5 status on their own, plus a half dozen G5 schools. How does adding G5s make you MORE of a P5? unless, of course, there really is NO DIFFERENCE between the abilities of P5 and G5 schools, only money.

I mean, at that point, almost half their membership would be former AAC. You know, the conference they swore WASNT good enough to be considered P6?
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They will be the Big 12 with 12 or maybe 14. It's not just adding G5's. It's which G5's you add and they are adding the best. So I know we don't want to believe that they'll maintain P status but it can and may well happen.
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I don’t think the rest of the power conferences will let the Big Smell keep their power status in the next CFP deal. Losing OU and Texas is too much of a blow especially when the rest of the conference has no national power.
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Time will tell.
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ajcalhoun
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The Big 12's rights fees will decrease with the loss of Texas and Oklahoma. The schools added are not going to make that up.

The AAC's rights fees will also decrease with the loss of Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. I don't know if there's anyone available that would give us a boost.

The SEC's rights fees are about to get much higher. The B1G will probably get just as much or more.

The ACC is stuck where they are for a while and the Pac 12 will finally get a better deal; probably along the lines of the ACC's but much lower than the SEC or B1G.



While nothing is carved in stone it seems to me the events of this last summer will leave a Power 4 and a G6 with Tulane now eleven spots further down the pecking order for a Power Conference invitation and the Big 12 just supplanted the ACC as Best of the G's.
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There’s still 4 years before the current deal expires. The Wave can makes waves by winning big.
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winwave wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:44 am They will be the Big 12 with 12 or maybe 14. It's not just adding G5's. It's which G5's you add and they are adding the best. So I know we don't want to believe that they'll maintain P status but it can and may well happen.
Except, two weeks ago, these same 3-5 teams were being looked down on as "G5s", as being inferior to the P5s. If a conf with UCF, CIN, HTN and MEM isn't good enough to be a P5, then adding those same teams to the lesser half of the Big 12 doesn't change who they are. And we all know the lesser half of just about all P5 conferences are no better than most of the better G5 programs. So, either those 3-5 teams were P5 caliber before, or they weren't. If they were, then we should have been a power conference.
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greenie78 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:50 am There’s still 4 years before the current deal expires. The Wave can makes waves by winning big.
Absolutely true. We can make them regret their choices, we can put ourselves in a position to take a spot they may be planning for Boise or Memphis, and we can also make ourselves attractive enough that if Clemson and FSU leave for the SEC at some point, the ACC sees us as an obvious choice. A lot still to play for in the next 3 years.
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Wait until OU and UT find out their path to the CFP is a hundred times more difficult. Also, wait until Cin, Htn and UCF find their path to an NY6 bowl is much less clear that it was in the AAC.
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To be a P conference, you have to have at least 2 schools with the pedigree and backing to potetially contend in current championship environment. The "new" Big 12 won't have that, even with BYU. What will the networks be willing to pay for a conference like that? We will see, but probably only a little more than what current AAC gets. That's essentially what the AAC is.
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RobertM320 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:53 am
winwave wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 9:44 am They will be the Big 12 with 12 or maybe 14. It's not just adding G5's. It's which G5's you add and they are adding the best. So I know we don't want to believe that they'll maintain P status but it can and may well happen.
Except, two weeks ago, these same 3-5 teams were being looked down on as "G5s", as being inferior to the P5s. If a conf with UCF, CIN, HTN and MEM isn't good enough to be a P5, then adding those same teams to the lesser half of the Big 12 doesn't change who they are. And we all know the lesser half of just about all P5 conferences are no better than most of the better G5 programs. So, either those 3-5 teams were P5 caliber before, or they weren't. If they were, then we should have been a power conference.
Again they got the best of the G5. They are in with different schools now so I get the bitterness but they likely keep their P5 status. Their money will go down from $25 million from TV to probably $15 -20 million. Ours goes down to $3-$4 million. Huge difference. If Big 12 offered us next we'd jump on it and you'd be screaming in happiness that we are in a P5.
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RobertM320 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:55 am
greenie78 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:50 am There’s still 4 years before the current deal expires. The Wave can makes waves by winning big.
Absolutely true. We can make them regret their choices, we can put ourselves in a position to take a spot they may be planning for Boise or Memphis, and we can also make ourselves attractive enough that if Clemson and FSU leave for the SEC at some point, the ACC sees us as an obvious choice. A lot still to play for in the next 3 years.
They'll be buyouts and they'll be gone in a year.
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Clemson and FSU can’t leave the ACC until around 2035 or they have would have to pay somewhere around $500 million.

If the Wave can win the AAC and a NY6 bid, it will help their chances. That’s the only way they will be able to get noticed.

But even if they get a Big 12 invite, it won’t be any different than when the Big East invited us, but still a big upgrade.
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I've said all along we need to breakthrough and win the AAC and the NY6 Bowl to get in the mx to get picked up.

It will be a lot different if we go from G to P and go from $7 to $15 million. Again everyone here would be proudly proclaiming our new status and new riches.
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greenie78
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It will definitely be a upgrade financially and on the field, but like the Big East, the Big 12 will lose its power status. No power programs in the conference to maintain that status. Losing OU and Texas is a killer for that conference.
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Like I said we'll see. Only time will tell.
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To get to 16 teams:

SEC 16 ✅
BIG10 14 (-2)
PAC12 12 (-4)
ACC 15 (-1)


*** Big12 2 (-4)

That leaves 11 spots. Are we in the top 11 candidates?

More realistically it's going to a P4, with Big12 as tweener. Do we think we can get into the top 7 candidates? Beating out the Big12 schools?

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RobertM320 wrote: Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:53 am
Except, two weeks ago, these same 3-5 teams were being looked down on as "G5s", as being inferior to the P5s. If a conf with UCF, CIN, HTN and MEM isn't good enough to be a P5, then adding those same teams to the lesser half of the Big 12 doesn't change who they are. And we all know the lesser half of just about all P5 conferences are no better than most of the better G5 programs. So, either those 3-5 teams were P5 caliber before, or they weren't. If they were, then we should have been a power conference.
The "lesser half of the Big 12" (math is off a bit as it's 8 of 10 schools) is better than what those teams are leaving behind. Even if Memphis stays, the AAC is still not as good as those 8, despite having Kansas, arguably the 2nd worst program in FBS.
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winwave
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CSU ,AFA and UAB to AAC possible:

BAYWAVE&Sophandros are SPINELESS COWARDS
YOU NEED LEVERAGE TO BE PROACTIVE!
Small time facilities for small time programs
6-4-23:Now all of the mistakes Tulane has made finally catches up with them as they descend to CUSAAC.
winwave
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BAYWAVE&Sophandros are SPINELESS COWARDS
YOU NEED LEVERAGE TO BE PROACTIVE!
Small time facilities for small time programs
6-4-23:Now all of the mistakes Tulane has made finally catches up with them as they descend to CUSAAC.
Bicoastalwave
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This isn’t exciting but is the best Plan C (Boise and San Diego State being plan A & B).

We need to be in the championship game and win the conference almost every year. Our only real competition is SMU, Tulsa & Memphis. It should be common place for us to win 3/4 of those games every year.

I do wish we would add App State. I understand their lack of market size & poor academics hurt them, but they have had sustained success, National recognition and their fan base is passionate.
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