NSD 2019

The main discussion board for everything Tulane athletics related.
User avatar
RobertM320
Tsunami
Posts: 7069
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:18 pm
Location: Destrehan, LA
Contact:
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:38 am

If you want to do a fair projection to last year, try this. (using 247 for reference)

2018 we had 24 commits factored into the rankings. We finished #70

2019, we had 19 commits, with a rating of .8172, ranking us #94

If you look at Troy, who had 23 commits, with a rating of .8179, they're ranked at #78, which is around where we would have been had we signed 23-24 players.

Is it a step back from last season's class? Probably. But let's also keep in mind 2 of the top 4 players from last class are already no longer in school, so that class really wasn't as good as the number indicated. And yet, on the field we we very happy with the results. If this class is close to last years as far as talent, I'll trust Fritz can make them productive again.

And its still the second highest rated class we've had since the 247 started the composite ratings in 2002, behind only last year. But we need to continue to improve, because most of the conference's recruiting stepped up this year.
Last edited by RobertM320 on Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:39 am, edited 1 time in total.


"ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! HANG EM AND BANG EM! HANG EM AND BANG EM!"-- Todd Graffagnini
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 13970
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:38 am

Sorry but that's not the case. Just look upriver at LSU. They have transfers too at more than just QB. It's something everyone is doing now. it just is. More importantly though it doesn't change the fact of the low rating on our HS recruiting which is ultimately the backbone of a program. Also just because we get transfers doesn't mean they are automatically good. Look at Knighton and Clewis. The bottom line is that our HS recruiting needs to get better if we are going to have a conference winning program. I like the additions of the transfers but the bulk of your team comes from HS signees. and we ned to pick it up there. A better season next year with an exciting offense should help.
Let's Roll !
golfnut69
Green Wave
Posts: 8855
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 9:38 am
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:40 am

I look for one more transfer in this signing class, either a QB with 3 years left or a Defensive player with two left
Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
User avatar
RobertM320
Tsunami
Posts: 7069
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:18 pm
Location: Destrehan, LA
Contact:
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:40 am

winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:38 am
Sorry but that's not the case. Just look upriver at LSU. They have transfers too at more than just QB. It's something everyone is doing now. it just is. More importantly though it doesn't change the fact of the low rating on our HS recruiting which is ultimately the backbone of a program. Also just because we get transfers doesn't mean they are automatically good. Look at Knighton and Clewis. The bottom line is that our HS recruiting needs to get better if we are going to have a conference winning program. I like the additions of the transfers but the bulk of your team comes from HS signees. and we ned to pick it up there. A better season next year with an exciting offense should help.
Didn't I say it has to get better? But FACTS are, its still the SECOND HIGHEST recruiting class we've had, behind only last years.
"ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! HANG EM AND BANG EM! HANG EM AND BANG EM!"-- Todd Graffagnini
User avatar
RobertM320
Tsunami
Posts: 7069
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:18 pm
Location: Destrehan, LA
Contact:
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:41 am

I'd be willing to bet we'd have seen a lot more of Clewis if Hall had been the OC instead of Ruse.
"ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! HANG EM AND BANG EM! HANG EM AND BANG EM!"-- Todd Graffagnini
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 13970
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:58 am

RobertM320 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:38 am
If you want to do a fair projection to last year, try this. (using 247 for reference)

2018 we had 24 commits factored into the rankings. We finished #70

2019, we had 19 commits, with a rating of .8172, ranking us #94

If you look at Troy, who had 23 commits, with a rating of .8179, they're ranked at #78, which is around where we would have been had we signed 23-24 players.

Is it a step back from last season's class? Probably. But let's also keep in mind 2 of the top 4 players from last class are already no longer in school, so that class really wasn't as good as the number indicated. And yet, on the field we we very happy with the results. If this class is close to last years as far as talent, I'll trust Fritz can make them productive again.

And its still the second highest rated class we've had since the 247 started the composite ratings in 2002, behind only last year. But we need to continue to improve, because most of the conference's recruiting stepped up this year.
That doesn't change the fact that our avg. # was lower this year than last. That # isn't about the total # of recruits. As to if we had added two more recruits we don't know what level they would have been which could still give us a lower average # than Troy.

As to last years recruits we were happy at this time not because of rankings but because as the class developed and we followed it we liked the quality of the players we were getting. That wasn't the case this year as all along people were concerned about the quality. Our happiness with the on field play was because of the finish. Not a lot of true freshman played so it will still be a while before we can assess the class.
Last edited by winwave on Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
Let's Roll !
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 13970
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:00 am

RobertM320 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:40 am
winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:38 am
Sorry but that's not the case. Just look upriver at LSU. They have transfers too at more than just QB. It's something everyone is doing now. it just is. More importantly though it doesn't change the fact of the low rating on our HS recruiting which is ultimately the backbone of a program. Also just because we get transfers doesn't mean they are automatically good. Look at Knighton and Clewis. The bottom line is that our HS recruiting needs to get better if we are going to have a conference winning program. I like the additions of the transfers but the bulk of your team comes from HS signees. and we ned to pick it up there. A better season next year with an exciting offense should help.
Didn't I say it has to get better? But FACTS are, its still the SECOND HIGHEST recruiting class we've had, behind only last years.
Actually I don't see where you said that. Maybe I missed it. As for 247 like many others I don't give it much credence as they give out three stars like candy.
Last edited by winwave on Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
Let's Roll !
User avatar
nawlinspete
Swell
Posts: 2012
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:43 pm
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:02 am

golfnut69 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:40 am
I look for one more transfer in this signing class, either a QB with 3 years left or a Defensive player with two left
Names ?
Once and Again, With Smart Choices and a Bit Of Patience
User avatar
RobertM320
Tsunami
Posts: 7069
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:18 pm
Location: Destrehan, LA
Contact:
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:16 am

winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:00 am
RobertM320 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:40 am
winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:38 am
Sorry but that's not the case. Just look upriver at LSU. They have transfers too at more than just QB. It's something everyone is doing now. it just is. More importantly though it doesn't change the fact of the low rating on our HS recruiting which is ultimately the backbone of a program. Also just because we get transfers doesn't mean they are automatically good. Look at Knighton and Clewis. The bottom line is that our HS recruiting needs to get better if we are going to have a conference winning program. I like the additions of the transfers but the bulk of your team comes from HS signees. and we ned to pick it up there. A better season next year with an exciting offense should help.
Didn't I say it has to get better? But FACTS are, its still the SECOND HIGHEST recruiting class we've had, behind only last years.
Actually I don't see where you said that. Maybe I missed it. As for 247 like many others I don't give it much credence as they give out three stars like candy.
Is it a step back from last season's class? Probably.
I wasn't looking at the stars. I'm looking at the composite rating for this class, which is .8172. Last year was .8265. The third best class we EVER had in the ratings era was .8003. I said the class wasn't as good as last year. But its a solid class, and better than anything we've EVER had EXCEPT last year. Do we need to get better going foward? Absolutely.
"ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! HANG EM AND BANG EM! HANG EM AND BANG EM!"-- Todd Graffagnini
golfnut69
Green Wave
Posts: 8855
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 9:38 am
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:17 am

the only two recruiting numbers that concerns me, are the number of W and L's ... what are the employment criteria for working at Rivals or 24/7....maybe I can get a part time gig
Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
golfnut69
Green Wave
Posts: 8855
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 9:38 am
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:47 am

nawlinspete wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:02 am
golfnut69 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:40 am
I look for one more transfer in this signing class, either a QB with 3 years left or a Defensive player with two left
Names ?
Pete.. the players will not be making a transfer decsion until after Spring Ball at their respective schools...to give names now, is unfair to them
Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 13970
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:20 am

RobertM320 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:16 am
winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:00 am
RobertM320 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:40 am
winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:38 am
Sorry but that's not the case. Just look upriver at LSU. They have transfers too at more than just QB. It's something everyone is doing now. it just is. More importantly though it doesn't change the fact of the low rating on our HS recruiting which is ultimately the backbone of a program. Also just because we get transfers doesn't mean they are automatically good. Look at Knighton and Clewis. The bottom line is that our HS recruiting needs to get better if we are going to have a conference winning program. I like the additions of the transfers but the bulk of your team comes from HS signees. and we ned to pick it up there. A better season next year with an exciting offense should help.
Didn't I say it has to get better? But FACTS are, its still the SECOND HIGHEST recruiting class we've had, behind only last years.
Actually I don't see where you said that. Maybe I missed it. As for 247 like many others I don't give it much credence as they give out three stars like candy.
Is it a step back from last season's class? Probably.
I wasn't looking at the stars. I'm looking at the composite rating for this class, which is .8172. Last year was .8265. The third best class we EVER had in the ratings era was .8003. I said the class wasn't as good as last year. But its a solid class, and better than anything we've EVER had EXCEPT last year. Do we need to get better going foward? Absolutely.
The rating is based on stars. Our recruiting has been abysmal forever so it's low bar syndrome to try and paint this class as something it's not. We all hope of course that there play on the field will prove the rankings wrong.
Let's Roll !
DfromCT
Tsunami
Posts: 7472
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2011 1:50 pm
Location: Stamford, CT
Status: Online

Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:03 am

All I care about is can they play?

The class is not much different ranking wise from last year's class. 93/1000 of a point lower, and 169/1000 higher than our highest rated class prior to last year.

How many stars did Matt Forte (arguably our best player ever) have when he was recruited?
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
Wave755
Riptide
Posts: 3136
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 4:04 pm
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:38 am

DfromCT wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:03 am
All I care about is can they play?

The class is not much different ranking wise from last year's class. 93/1000 of a point lower, and 169/1000 higher than our highest rated class prior to last year.

How many stars did Matt Forte (arguably our best player ever) have when he was recruited?
Matt only got 2 stars. 8-)
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 13970
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:32 pm

Matt did only get two stars and there are always an exception to the rule. How'd it work out all those years we were recruiting almost all two stars? It's picking up and we need it to pick up more.
Let's Roll !
golfnut69
Green Wave
Posts: 8855
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 9:38 am
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:33 pm

The "All Transfer" team...it also list a number of players who have not made a decsion on where to transfer
https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/01 ... hing-teams
Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
User avatar
AugWave
Swell
Posts: 1580
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2011 9:45 pm
Location: ATL via New Orleans
Status: Offline

Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:01 pm

Still complaining about stars eh? Turn on the tape. Nuff said.
I don't yell. I don't scream. I don't argue. I just hit 'em over the head with a bottle.
Bicoastalwave
Surge
Posts: 542
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:24 am
Status: Offline

Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:20 am

Didn’t 3 of our all defensive aac (1st/2nd/3rd team) players have 2 stars ?

Don’t get me wrong I wish we had all 4 star players, but let’s trust the staff.

Our average star rating per player is ahead ULL, but behind LTech. We need to rectify this, and two more bowl games in a row should do it ( $8-10m a year from a new aac tv deal won’t hurt either).
mbawavefan12
Tsunami
Posts: 5454
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2012 2:17 pm
Status: Offline

Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:32 am

It infuriates me whem folks point out the Forte or Brady outlier as some sort of justification.
Conversley I can point out far more two stars or late round picks that did not work out. So who is right now?
DfromCT
Tsunami
Posts: 7472
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2011 1:50 pm
Location: Stamford, CT
Status: Online

Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:02 am

mbawavefan12 wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:32 am
It infuriates me whem folks point out the Forte or Brady outlier as some sort of justification.
Conversley I can point out far more two stars or late round picks that did not work out. So who is right now?
I know this is taking a leap off topic but I'm going there anyway.

The Patriots (whom I despise but respect) had 22 of their 48 game day active players drafted in the 4th round or later or undrafted (8). Is that outliers or is that good scouting?

That's my point with recruiting. Most of this thread is an argument about how good or bad this year's class is. I think the recruiting ratings are fun to talk about in February, but what takes place on the field supersedes them when they get on the gridiron and play. The ratings are not very accurate but I can live with folks saying they're an indication of how the team talent level should be in the 2-5 year timeframe. But we've been arguing over a class that is .095 lower than our best class ever and .165 higher than our second best. Do those differences really play out on the field? Keep in mind Tulane, like every school, has players enroll that never take the field. We actually have more than most since we don't give degrees for pushups and pullups.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
User avatar
RobertM320
Tsunami
Posts: 7069
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:18 pm
Location: Destrehan, LA
Contact:
Status: Offline

Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:22 am

winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:20 am
RobertM320 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:16 am
winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:00 am
RobertM320 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:40 am
winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:38 am
Sorry but that's not the case. Just look upriver at LSU. They have transfers too at more than just QB. It's something everyone is doing now. it just is. More importantly though it doesn't change the fact of the low rating on our HS recruiting which is ultimately the backbone of a program. Also just because we get transfers doesn't mean they are automatically good. Look at Knighton and Clewis. The bottom line is that our HS recruiting needs to get better if we are going to have a conference winning program. I like the additions of the transfers but the bulk of your team comes from HS signees. and we ned to pick it up there. A better season next year with an exciting offense should help.
Didn't I say it has to get better? But FACTS are, its still the SECOND HIGHEST recruiting class we've had, behind only last years.
Actually I don't see where you said that. Maybe I missed it. As for 247 like many others I don't give it much credence as they give out three stars like candy.
Is it a step back from last season's class? Probably.
I wasn't looking at the stars. I'm looking at the composite rating for this class, which is .8172. Last year was .8265. The third best class we EVER had in the ratings era was .8003. I said the class wasn't as good as last year. But its a solid class, and better than anything we've EVER had EXCEPT last year. Do we need to get better going foward? Absolutely.

The rating is based on stars. Our recruiting has been abysmal forever so it's low bar syndrome to try and paint this class as something it's not. We all hope of course that there play on the field will prove the rankings wrong.
There you go again with the "low bar syndrome" BS. You mean, because I dont expect a Top 25 recruiting class I have low-bar syndrome? I never said this is some GREAT class. The point I made is, its the SECOND BEST CLASS WE'VE EVER HAD, behind ONLY last year's class. We're not talking CJ or Toledo quality recruiting here.

This is a decent class. If you want something notably higher, like say, in the 50's, we need to string together a few more winning seasons. If you check, there's only THREE G5s ranked in the top 65. Boise St, UCF and FAU. Boise St and UCF have a track record, FAU signed 32 recruits so their ranking is inflated. In fact, Cincinnati is the ONLY G5 school to sign less than 20 commits and be ranking higher than us.
"ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! HANG EM AND BANG EM! HANG EM AND BANG EM!"-- Todd Graffagnini
golfnut69
Green Wave
Posts: 8855
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 9:38 am
Status: Offline

Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:19 am

A lovely time of year to visit Syracuse NY. ...OR.....Hey Mister, throw me sumthin'
https://www.syracuse.com/orangefootball ... ekend.html
Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
mbawavefan12
Tsunami
Posts: 5454
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2012 2:17 pm
Status: Offline

Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:29 am

DfromCT wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:02 am
mbawavefan12 wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:32 am
It infuriates me whem folks point out the Forte or Brady outlier as some sort of justification.
Conversley I can point out far more two stars or late round picks that did not work out. So who is right now?
I know this is taking a leap off topic but I'm going there anyway.

The Patriots (whom I despise but respect) had 22 of their 48 game day active players drafted in the 4th round or later or undrafted (8). Is that outliers or is that good scouting?

That's my point with recruiting. Most of this thread is an argument about how good or bad this year's class is. I think the recruiting ratings are fun to talk about in February, but what takes place on the field supersedes them when they get on the gridiron and play. The ratings are not very accurate but I can live with folks saying they're an indication of how the team talent level should be in the 2-5 year timeframe. But we've been arguing over a class that is .095 lower than our best class ever and .165 higher than our second best. Do those differences really play out on the field? Keep in mind Tulane, like every school, has players enroll that never take the field. We actually have more than most since we don't give degrees for pushups and pullups.
No I would not say that is an outlier but instead pretty typical of an NFL roster.

I am not complaining about the class as it seems fine. It just annoys me when someone justifies a signing by saying “well Forte was a two star” ya well so freakin what.
netshorty
Surge
Posts: 582
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2015 8:41 am
Status: Offline

Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:34 am

RobertM320 wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:22 am
If you check, there's only THREE G5s ranked in the top 65. Boise St, UCF and FAU. Boise St and UCF have a track record, FAU signed 32 recruits so their ranking is inflated. In fact, Cincinnati is the ONLY G5 school to sign less than 20 commits and be ranking higher than us.
Nice analysis.
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 13970
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:02 am

RobertM320 wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:22 am
winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:20 am
RobertM320 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:16 am
winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:00 am
RobertM320 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:40 am
winwave wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:38 am
Sorry but that's not the case. Just look upriver at LSU. They have transfers too at more than just QB. It's something everyone is doing now. it just is. More importantly though it doesn't change the fact of the low rating on our HS recruiting which is ultimately the backbone of a program. Also just because we get transfers doesn't mean they are automatically good. Look at Knighton and Clewis. The bottom line is that our HS recruiting needs to get better if we are going to have a conference winning program. I like the additions of the transfers but the bulk of your team comes from HS signees. and we ned to pick it up there. A better season next year with an exciting offense should help.
Didn't I say it has to get better? But FACTS are, its still the SECOND HIGHEST recruiting class we've had, behind only last years.
Actually I don't see where you said that. Maybe I missed it. As for 247 like many others I don't give it much credence as they give out three stars like candy.
Is it a step back from last season's class? Probably.
I wasn't looking at the stars. I'm looking at the composite rating for this class, which is .8172. Last year was .8265. The third best class we EVER had in the ratings era was .8003. I said the class wasn't as good as last year. But its a solid class, and better than anything we've EVER had EXCEPT last year. Do we need to get better going foward? Absolutely.

The rating is based on stars. Our recruiting has been abysmal forever so it's low bar syndrome to try and paint this class as something it's not. We all hope of course that there play on the field will prove the rankings wrong.
There you go again with the "low bar syndrome" BS. You mean, because I dont expect a Top 25 recruiting class I have low-bar syndrome? I never said this is some GREAT class. The point I made is, its the SECOND BEST CLASS WE'VE EVER HAD, behind ONLY last year's class. We're not talking CJ or Toledo quality recruiting here.

This is a decent class. If you want something notably higher, like say, in the 50's, we need to string together a few more winning seasons. If you check, there's only THREE G5s ranked in the top 65. Boise St, UCF and FAU. Boise St and UCF have a track record, FAU signed 32 recruits so their ranking is inflated. In fact, Cincinnati is the ONLY G5 school to sign less than 20 commits and be ranking higher than us.
First off your claim of second best ever comes with a big asterisk. It's second best in the 247 ratings era. I have been following Tulane for 6 decades. So it's not the second best ever. Also I go by Rivals where it's the third best in the rankings era. Not a big difference but just pointing it out.

Maybe I'm being too hard on this class. After the uptick last year I was hopeful the staff had found their footing and things would have a steady trend up. I don't like any step back especially after a winning season. Though last year luck had some say in it. If that doctor doesn't misdiagnose a player like Johnson we have no chance at him. I like some of the players in this class at the skill positions. I think Jackson and Spears will be good for us.

Another reason that has me disappointed is something you noted yourself. The others around us improved their recruiting which set us back. We can't let that continue to happen. And of course it's very disappointing not to be a clear #2 in recruiting among the in-state schools.

What I want and expect from this program is to be the best G5 program. We obviously need better recruiting to do that. I'm hopeful with the staff changes on offense that we can really start to make some noise and really build this thing up.
Let's Roll !
Post Reply