UCONN exit from the AAC to cost them $17 million

[golfnut69]

I think we should be careful to distinguish between CFP (college football playoff) games and NY6 bowl games. One is the ESPN 4 team invitational (army has no Shot of making this) and then there are the NY6 bowl games that will go to the highest ranked G5 (army has a shot at this).


I also feel like saying kf army runs the table theyll be in an ny6 is like saying: if Tulane runs the table theyll be in an ny6. If thats too much of a stretch insert UCF/Memphis/Houston

Army is in a G5 conference ?... they play two FCS teams and only get to declare one of them as a "win" and that is assuming they beat both of the FCS teams

[Aberzombie1892]

I think we should be careful to distinguish between CFP (college football playoff) games and NY6 bowl games. One is the ESPN 4 team invitational (army has no Shot of making this) and then there are the NY6 bowl games that will go to the highest ranked G5 (army has a shot at this).


I also feel like saying kf army runs the table theyll be in an ny6 is like saying: if Tulane runs the table theyll be in an ny6. If thats too much of a stretch insert UCF/Memphis/Houston

Army is in a G5 conference ?... they play two FCS teams and only get to declare one of them as a "win" and that is assuming they beat both of the FCS teams

This. Army is not eligible for the guaranteed G5 champion CFP Selection/NY6 slot, and, as a result, they would have to get in to the exclusion of a P5.

Given
1. that some of the CFP Selection/NY6 slots are guaranteed to go to certain P5 conferences,
2. Army's schedule (2 FCS, a bunch of average or worse G5 teams, and Tulane),
3. the fact that Army would have to push out a P5 from that slot since it is not competing with the highest ranked G5 champ for a slot, and
4. the fact that the CFP Committee has punished P5 teams that scheduled poorly by preventing them from being assigned a CFP Selection/NY6 slot,

Army really doesn't stand a chance even if it was undefeated and Michigan wins the B1G.

[DfromCT]

I think we should be careful to distinguish between CFP (college football playoff) games and NY6 bowl games. One is the ESPN 4 team invitational (army has no Shot of making this) and then there are the NY6 bowl games that will go to the highest ranked G5 (army has a shot at this).


I also feel like saying kf army runs the table theyll be in an ny6 is like saying: if Tulane runs the table theyll be in an ny6. If thats too much of a stretch insert UCF/Memphis/Houston

Thank you! Your post was almost exactly what I was going to post in response to the post above yours. We're not talking about the CFP (which is NOT recognized by the NCAA as a championship playoff) we're talking about an NY6 game.

And yes, were Tulane to run the table, we (or any AAC team) would play a NY6 game.

[DfromCT]

This. Army is not eligible for the guaranteed G5 champion CFP Selection/NY6 slot, and, as a result, they would have to get in to the exclusion of a P5.

Given
1. that some of the CFP Selection/NY6 slots are guaranteed to go to certain P5 conferences,
2. Army's schedule (2 FCS, a bunch of average or worse G5 teams, and Tulane),
3. the fact that Army would have to push out a P5 from that slot since it is not competing with the highest ranked G5 champ for a slot, and
4. the fact that the CFP Committee has punished P5 teams that scheduled poorly by preventing them from being assigned a CFP Selection/NY6 slot,

Army really doesn't stand a chance even if it was undefeated and Michigan wins the B1G.

Army goes 12-0 and they're playing in a NY6 game. Sorry, but we can agree to disagree. How many undefeated teams are there each year in FBS? Typically 2 or 3. The public outcry would be enough to make the committee give them a berth.

The part of your post I put in bold is what I cannot come close to agreeing with. If Michigan went 12-1 with a loss to Army, and won the B1G championship game, an undefeated Army is in the NY6 at minimum.

We both agree these hypothetical situations are far fetched. I'd like to see Army go 11-1 with it's only loss to Tulane!

And I agree, Army has a very weak schedule.

[wave97]

The schadenfreude Gods will have it in for Army in 2019 after they rejoiced in hanging 70 points on a Houston team that did not have a coaching staff.
I hope Army racks up a winning season and finds themselves in a bowl game with any AAC West team that is well acquainted with the "service academy" one trick pony scheme..

[Aberzombie1892]

This. Army is not eligible for the guaranteed G5 champion CFP Selection/NY6 slot, and, as a result, they would have to get in to the exclusion of a P5.

Given
1. that some of the CFP Selection/NY6 slots are guaranteed to go to certain P5 conferences,
2. Army's schedule (2 FCS, a bunch of average or worse G5 teams, and Tulane),
3. the fact that Army would have to push out a P5 from that slot since it is not competing with the highest ranked G5 champ for a slot, and
4. the fact that the CFP Committee has punished P5 teams that scheduled poorly by preventing them from being assigned a CFP Selection/NY6 slot,

Army really doesn't stand a chance even if it was undefeated and Michigan wins the B1G.

Army goes 12-0 and they're playing in a NY6 game. Sorry, but we can agree to disagree. How many undefeated teams are there each year in FBS? Typically 2 or 3. The public outcry would be enough to make the committee give them a berth.

The part of your post I put in bold is what I cannot come close to agreeing with. If Michigan went 12-1 with a loss to Army, and won the B1G championship game, an undefeated Army is in the NY6 at minimum.

We both agree these hypothetical situations are far fetched. I'd like to see Army go 11-1 with it's only loss to Tulane!

And I agree, Army has a very weak schedule.

I understand your stance, but looking at the history of the CFP, Army would not only have to be ranked in the top 12, but it would also have to not be excluded due to an existing bowl tie in place between P5 conferences or the G5 guaranteed slot. In practice, these variables have resulted in 6 teams ranked #10-12 in the final CFP rankings being excluded from the CFP Selection/NY6 games, and those teams are listed below. Granted, at the same time, this also means that no team ranked in the top 9 has been excluded.

Teams ranked in the final CFP top 12 but were excluded due to conference bowl tie ins and G5 guaranteed slot:

#11 2014 Kansas State
#10 2015 UNC
#11 2015 TCU
#10 2016 Colorado
#12 2016 Oklahoma State
#12 2018 Penn State

The above is pointed out to draw attention to the fact that Army would essentially need a top 9 CFP regular season finish to expect a CFP Selection slot since the tie ins and the guaranteed slot exist, and, given undefeated 2017 UCF finished #12 (and was selected to the guaranteed G5 slot), undefeated 2016 Western Michigan finished #15 (and was selected to the guaranteed slot), and given Army's schedule, it seems extraordinarily unlikely that Army would finish in the top 9 even with an undefeated record.

[DfromCT]

16 teams play in the NY6 and CFP. 16. Why does an independent, regardless of who they are, have to take a P5 team out if they go undefeated?

[mbawavefan12]

16 teams play in the NY6 and CFP. 16. Why does an independent, regardless of who they are, have to take a P5 team out if they go undefeated?

Pretty sure the only independent to have access to a NY6 bowl is ND. Not positive but close.
This is the issue for BYU, they either are top four or going to some bowl in Memphis or Hawaii.

[RobertM320]

I think we should be careful to distinguish between CFP (college football playoff) games and NY6 bowl games. One is the ESPN 4 team invitational (army has no Shot of making this) and then there are the NY6 bowl games that will go to the highest ranked G5 (army has a shot at this).


I also feel like saying kf army runs the table theyll be in an ny6 is like saying: if Tulane runs the table theyll be in an ny6. If thats too much of a stretch insert UCF/Memphis/Houston

Except that Army is technically not part of the G5. So if an undefeated Army were to finish ranked 15th, and a one-loss UCF were to finish ranked 18th and be the highest ranked of the five G5 conferences, UCF is getting that guaranteed slot, not Army.

[Bicoastalwave]

Just for a ludicrous thought: If Tulane ran the table would they be in a position for a CFP spot?

Beat auburn at auburn, Beat UCF, beat memphis away, temple away & Army away & houston . . . Thats got to put us in the mix. Its not happening- but thats disgusting if we wouldnt make it in. Thats a couple top 15 teams (UCF/Auburn) and 3-4 top 25ish teams.

Its also a nice schedule for a fan. Its fun to be a little nervous because we play so many quality teams. Even SMU & Navy will be fun.

[Bicoastalwave]

RE: a top 15 army missing the NY6 bowl to a #18 ranked one loss UCF- This scenario is probably whats necessary for the AAC to get BYU or Army to push to join. It would change the sentiment of the fans

[Aberzombie1892]

16 teams play in the NY6 and CFP. 16. Why does an independent, regardless of who they are, have to take a P5 team out if they go undefeated?

Because that slot would otherwise go to a P5 since Army is not eligible for the G5 slot?

Let’s look at 2019:
Fiesta and Peach Bowls - Top 4 teams (CFP semifinals)
Rose Bowl - highest remaining PAC 12 v. highest remaining B1G
Sugar Bowl - highest remaining SEC v. highest remaining Big 12
Cotton Bowl - at large v. the G5 rep
Orange Bowl - highest remaining ACC v. B1G, SEC or Notre Dame (there are a lot of rules that will not be explained here).

Assuming the above is accurate, there is literally only one slot potentially available for Army next season - the Cotton Bowl - and, in order to get that slot, Army would have to finish in the top 12 and hope that there are no P5s in the top 12 that aren’t accounted for in the conference tie ins that are ranked higher than it is. That’s too much to hope for.

In years where none of the Fiesta, Peach, or Cotton Bowls are semifinals, Army would have more of a chance since none of those bowls have permanent conference tie ins.

[Aberzombie1892]

Just for a ludicrous thought: If Tulane ran the table would they be in a position for a CFP spot?

Beat auburn at auburn, Beat UCF, beat memphis away, temple away & Army away & houston . . . Thats got to put us in the mix. Its not happening- but thats disgusting if we wouldnt make it in. Thats a couple top 15 teams (UCF/Auburn) and 3-4 top 25ish teams.

Its also a nice schedule for a fan. Its fun to be a little nervous because we play so many quality teams. Even SMU & Navy will be fun.

You mean top 4? No way and it's not close. If UCF could not make it in 2018 after being undefeated in 2017, it is not possible for Tulane in 2019.

[Bicoastalwave]

The knock against UCF both years was essentially they didn’t play any reasonable p5 teams and bad weather cancelled the teams they had scheduled. They had a great win against auburn but that was to end the season. Powers to be can just say it’s a new year blah blah blah. Most people agree that Houston In 2016 could have made the playoff if they had handled business in conference. If auburn and Army are undefeated they’ll both be highly ranked (maybe not both Top 5 like Louisville & Oklahoma in 2016, but top 10-15.). Once again, I am pretty clearly not expecting this to occur (army won’t be undefeated, and auburn could lose their big opening game and Tulane won’t run the table). I will say overall I think our schedule is challenging.

[DfromCT]

The knock against UCF both years was essentially they didn’t play any reasonable p5 teams and bad weather cancelled the teams they had scheduled. They had a great win against auburn but that was to end the season. Powers to be can just say it’s a new year blah blah blah. Most people agree that Houston In 2016 could have made the playoff if they had handled business in conference. If auburn and Army are undefeated they’ll both be highly ranked (maybe not both Top 5 like Louisville & Oklahoma in 2016, but top 10-15.). Once again, I am pretty clearly not expecting this to occur (army won’t be undefeated, and auburn could lose their big opening game and Tulane won’t run the table). I will say overall I think our schedule is challenging.

I agree that our schedule is challenging, but running the table would NOT get Tulane into the playoff. It would get us a NY6 game, though.

[Aberzombie1892]

The knock against UCF both years was essentially they didn’t play any reasonable p5 teams and bad weather cancelled the teams they had scheduled. They had a great win against auburn but that was to end the season. Powers to be can just say it’s a new year blah blah blah. Most people agree that Houston In 2016 could have made the playoff if they had handled business in conference. If auburn and Army are undefeated they’ll both be highly ranked (maybe not both Top 5 like Louisville & Oklahoma in 2016, but top 10-15.). Once again, I am pretty clearly not expecting this to occur (army won’t be undefeated, and auburn could lose their big opening game and Tulane won’t run the table). I will say overall I think our schedule is challenging.

That's only a misnomer. There was no way for Houston to make the CFP in 2016, and there was no way for UCF to make it in 2017 or 2018.

At the outset, it has to be stated that some decisions the CFP Committee makes do not have any meaningful value other than discussion among fans. A great example of this is the ranking of teams at #5 and #6 in the final CFP rankings in 2018. Once the CFP Committee was aware that that neither Georgia nor Ohio State would make the CFP, it made literally no difference which one was ranked #5 or #6. Why? Georgia was going to the Sugar Bowl regardless of where it was ranked as long as it was the number 2 team in the SEC, and Ohio State was going to the Rose Bowl regardless of where it was ranked as long as it was the number 1 team in the B1G (in terms of conference standings - not rank). Setting this example is important to set the framework for some of the academic discussions that follow.

1. Army in 2019 - Let's say Army is ranked #23 and Michigan is ranked #6 when they play. If Army wins, it will move to around #12-16 and Michigan will fall to around #10-16. At that point, Army will not move up much even if it wins out since the likely 2nd strongest team on its schedule is fighting for a top 3 spot in the AAC West (Tulane). In contrast, Michigan could still make the CFP since it still has Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Iowa, and whoever wins the B1G West (maybe Wisconsin, Iowa, or Nebraska) remaining on its schedule. As can be seen looking at historical rankings, wins over teams that are not that good will frequently cause a ranked team to not move up in rank (i.e. 2018 UCF did not move up in the 2018 CFP Rankings after beating Memphis in either the 12 game regular season or the AAC title game and also when it beat Temple). It is important to call out this as well for the purposes of drawing attention to schedule difficulty.

2. Houston in 2016 - Houston defeated Oklahoma and Louisville, which were great wins that would anchor an undefeated Houston in the top 10, however, looking at Houston's schedule, no other teams on its schedule would have finished the regular season ranked. That is where schedule difficulty comes in.

One loss P5 teams made the playoffs in 2016 with their wins over ranked opponents ranked in the final CFP in parenthesis:
Clemson (beat VA Tech, Florida State, Auburn, and Louisville)
Ohio State (beat Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Penn State, Nebraska and Michigan)
Washington (beat Stanford, Utah, and Colorado)

Houston's position as a G5 with a G5 schedule plus only two ranked wins would not be enough to get them in over any of those teams. This does not mean that Houston would not have potentially been ranked #5 in the final CFP Rankings and been handed the G5 auto slot that instead went to Western Michigan, but being ranked #5 versus the first few slots behind it is almost always functionally meaningless due the conference tie ins and the G5 slot.

3. UCF - UCF's saga is the shining example of why Army would not make a CFP Selection/NY6 bowl, why Houston would not have made the CFP, and why Tulane wouldn’t make the CFP. 2017 UCF had 3 wins over ranked teams and was undefeated, and it still topped out at #12. It would be virtually impossible for a G5 team to have more ranked wins than that during the regular season, and #12 was it. 2018 UCF had only one ranked team on its schedule, and, even though it was building on perception from the 13-0 2017 season, it topped out at #8. It’s true that a game against UNC was cancelled, but winning that game would not have been enough to move it in front of Michigan. As discussed earlier, it wouldn’t have mattered if it topped out at #5 instead, as it still would have participated in the same bowl slot. Even at #8, UCF was behind a 2 loss Michigan and a 2 loss Georgia and right in front of a 3 loss Washington, a 3 loss Florida, and a 3 loss LSU.

[Bicoastalwave]

Thanks for the thoughtful response ! I do agree with the basis for your argument. A few are perpetuating that same misnomer for Houston this year with Washington State & Ohio state on their schedule. The difference may be if UCF, Cinci, Memphis or even a North Texas (unlikely) team could end the season in the top 25.

[tpstulane]

$17 million to leave. Wow they wanted out bad I guess.
http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-men ... story.html

[greenie78]

Good riddance to be honest. Football is much more important than basketball and UCONN bright nothing when it came to football. Plus that part of the country is no recruiting hotbed.

[golfnut69]

$17 million to leave. Wow they wanted out bad I guess.
http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-men ... story.html

but they are goin' to the big east....there is a price to be paid to be part of a non revelant, non all sport conference

[wave97]

$17 million to leave. Wow they wanted out bad I guess.
http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-men ... story.html

but they are goin' to the big east....there is a price to be paid to be part of a non revelant all sport conference

They're going to the "Big Villanova".

[DfromCT]

Good riddance to be honest. Football is much more important than basketball and UCONN bright nothing when it came to football. Plus that part of the country is no recruiting hotbed.

They've been more relavant in football this century than we have. They've done something that Tulane has NEVER done winning 8+ games 4 seasons in a row. Since they left the Big East their football has stunk. But Tulane has never accomplished that statistic, and they did it against MUCH better competition than Tulane was playing at that time. They did that playing in a true P6 conference. We have not only never won 8+ games 4 years in a row, we've also never finished the season ranked 3 out of 4 years.

Yes, the Huskies suck at football right now. But let's match that performance once in my lifetime before we look down our noses at UConn.

[Wave755]

Good riddance to be honest. Football is much more important than basketball and UCONN bright nothing when it came to football. Plus that part of the country is no recruiting hotbed.

They've been more relavant in football this century than we have. They've done something that Tulane has NEVER done winning 8+ games 4 seasons in a row. Since they left the Big East their football has stunk. But Tulane has never accomplished that statistic, and they did it against MUCH better competition than Tulane was playing at that time. They finished ranked 3 of the 4 seasons they did that playing in a true P6 conference. We have not only never won 8+ games 4 years in a row, we've also never finished the season ranked 3 out of 4 years.

Yes, the Huskies suck at football right now. But let's match that performance once in my lifetime before we look down our noses at UConn.

And, on Saturday, October 12th let's give them a real "kick in the ass" goodbye at Yulman.

[golfnut69]

Good riddance to be honest. Football is much more important than basketball and UCONN bright nothing when it came to football. Plus that part of the country is no recruiting hotbed.

They've been more relavant in football this century than we have. They've done something that Tulane has NEVER done winning 8+ games 4 seasons in a row. Since they left the Big East their football has stunk. But Tulane has never accomplished that statistic, and they did it against MUCH better competition than Tulane was playing at that time. They finished ranked 3 of the 4 seasons they did that playing in a true P6 conference. We have not only never won 8+ games 4 years in a row, we've also never finished the season ranked 3 out of 4 years.

Yes, the Huskies suck at football right now. But let's match that performance once in my lifetime before we look down our noses at UConn.

And, on Saturday, October 12th let's give them a real "kick in the ass" goodbye at Yulman.

just as we gave TCU , when they left cusa

[DfromCT]

As I said in my blog post, if we don't blow out UConn, the program isn't where we think it is. We should beat them like a drum.