Big 10-Big 12 merger news

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tpstulane
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Those moves will open up spots for 4 AAC schools.
Houston, Memphis, UCF and one other school would be my guess.


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DfromCT
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That tweet suggests for just one season. Is it possible that the rest of the B1G doesn't play? As a permanent merger, it makes less than no sense.
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DfromCT wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:26 pm That tweet suggests for just one season. Is it possible that the rest of the B1G doesn't play? As a permanent merger, it makes less than no sense.
It’s hard to view the news without making the assumption that the Big 10 intends to cancel its season and that this would be only for one season.

To be fair to the Big 12, the Big 12 is far more valuable than the rest of the Big 10 after those programs are removed.
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Aberzombie1892 wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:09 pm
DfromCT wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:26 pm That tweet suggests for just one season. Is it possible that the rest of the B1G doesn't play? As a permanent merger, it makes less than no sense.
It’s hard to view the news without making the assumption that the Big 10 intends to cancel its season and that this would be only for one season.

To be fair to the Big 12, the Big 12 is far more valuable than the rest of the Big 10 after those programs are removed.
I thought the TV money, even though there's only 10 pieces of the pie in the Big 12, is still bigger in the B1G than the Big 12.
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DfromCT wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:56 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:09 pm
DfromCT wrote: Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:26 pm That tweet suggests for just one season. Is it possible that the rest of the B1G doesn't play? As a permanent merger, it makes less than no sense.
It’s hard to view the news without making the assumption that the Big 10 intends to cancel its season and that this would be only for one season.

To be fair to the Big 12, the Big 12 is far more valuable than the rest of the Big 10 after those programs are removed.
I thought the TV money, even though there's only 10 pieces of the pie in the Big 12, is still bigger in the B1G than the Big 12.
I think we are talking about slightly different things. I’m saying Big 10 needs those programs as those programs drive its TV deal, and, I’m the open market, the Big 12 by default is more valuable than the Big 10 minus those programs 0while you’re saying that, pro rata, the overall value of the Big 10 contract is still higher if any 4 programs are removed.

Both statements are accurate.

The Big 12 with Oklahoma, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Nebraska would likely the most valuable conference in America, and that’s not even considering the value of Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, etc.
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If all this is true, even for one season, it raises lots of issues. First, assuming all this is driven by the Big 10 decision to cancel the season, I'm surprised that the Big 10 would/could make that decision without the support of those four schools (especially OSU and Michigan). Secondly, even if it is only for this coming season, one must wonder whether the schools involved might not consider sticking with the new alliance (with a huge nudge from ESPN)--that would make the Big 10 decision to cancel the season very risky for their P5 parasites. Thirdly, if these four schools align with the Big 12 this year, that will almost surely end any consideration of the SEC and AAC schools cancelling their season--as it shows some schools will find other ways to play the season, even if their conference decides to shut down the season. I would imagine that the Big 10 office will forego any part of the revenue that OSU, Mich, PSU and Neb generates from their Big 12 participation. Weird times.
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DfromCT
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Aberzombie1892 wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:26 am I think we are talking about slightly different things. I’m saying Big 10 needs those programs as those programs drive its TV deal, and, I’m the open market, the Big 12 by default is more valuable than the Big 10 minus those programs 0while you’re saying that, pro rata, the overall value of the Big 10 contract is still higher if any 4 programs are removed.

Both statements are accurate.

The Big 12 with Oklahoma, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Nebraska would likely the most valuable conference in America, and that’s not even considering the value of Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, etc.
No, that's not what I meant. First of all, I don't think this is happening at all. The Big 10 (B1G) is much stronger than the Big 10. Not even close.

Secondly my point was that the B1G has a richer contract than the Big 12, and even after the split despite the fact that the pie is cut into more pieces in the B1G. By 2026, the B1G will distribute $82 million to full members while the Big 10 will only get $62 million. It would make MUCH more sense for the B1G to take on 4 schools from the Big 12 than vise versa. The next conference re-shuffling will probably create 4 conferences of 16 members, and the Big 12 is probably the odd conference out, unless the ACC breaks up as the ACC TV contract is even smaller (though the conference has a lot of pride and tradition).
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DfromCT wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:37 am
Aberzombie1892 wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:26 am I think we are talking about slightly different things. I’m saying Big 10 needs those programs as those programs drive its TV deal, and, I’m the open market, the Big 12 by default is more valuable than the Big 10 minus those programs 0while you’re saying that, pro rata, the overall value of the Big 10 contract is still higher if any 4 programs are removed.

Both statements are accurate.

The Big 12 with Oklahoma, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Nebraska would likely the most valuable conference in America, and that’s not even considering the value of Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, etc.
No, that's not what I meant. First of all, I don't think this is happening at all. The Big 10 (B1G) is much stronger than the Big 10. Not even close.

Secondly my point was that the B1G has a richer contract than the Big 12, and even after the split despite the fact that the pie is cut into more pieces in the B1G. By 2026, the B1G will distribute $82 million to full members while the Big 10 will only get $62 million. It would make MUCH more sense for the B1G to take on 4 schools from the Big 12 than vise versa. The next conference re-shuffling will probably create 4 conferences of 16 members, and the Big 12 is probably the odd conference out, unless the ACC breaks up as the ACC TV contract is even smaller (though the conference has a lot of pride and tradition).
No one is saying the Big 12 is more valuable than the Big 10 - what’s being said is the Big 12 is dramatically more valuable than the Big 10 is minus those 4 programs. Texas and Oklahoma plus 8 random programs is arguably at least as valuable as the remaining Big 10 programs if those 4 are excluded.

If those 4 programs left the Big 10, the network partners would restructure the Big 10 payouts dramatically downward prior to the signing of a new deal. That is a certainty.
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tpstulane
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Per Dan Patrick, the Big 10 presidents have officially voted 12-2 to cancel the season. Nebraska and Iowa the only votes in favor of continuing
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And the Pac 12 and ACC are right behind them. There has been talk that OU and Texas are also trying to fight of the season being cancelled but are in the minority, same with Clemson & FSU.

SEC is forging ahead (hilariously as they have some of the highest infection rates), would be incredible to see a 1 year SEC expansion with OU, Texas, Clemson & FSU.
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Aberzombie1892 wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:18 am No one is saying the Big 12 is more valuable than the Big 10 - what’s being said is the Big 12 is dramatically more valuable than the Big 10 is minus those 4 programs. Texas and Oklahoma plus 8 random programs is arguably at least as valuable as the remaining Big 10 programs if those 4 are excluded.

If those 4 programs left the Big 10, the network partners would restructure the Big 10 payouts dramatically downward prior to the signing of a new deal. That is a certainty.
But that makes my point: Why in hell would those four leave the stronger, richer conference?

Looks like it's all moot for now. College football is about to hear the Fat Lady sing. I don't think the NFL is that far behind. And I doubt baseball finishes the 60 game irregular season. NHL and NBA will finish, but won't start their 20-21 seasons until after Thanksgiving at the earliest, and more than likely not until after the holidays, if at all.
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Aberzombie1892 wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:18 am
DfromCT wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:37 am
Aberzombie1892 wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:26 am I think we are talking about slightly different things. I’m saying Big 10 needs those programs as those programs drive its TV deal, and, I’m the open market, the Big 12 by default is more valuable than the Big 10 minus those programs 0while you’re saying that, pro rata, the overall value of the Big 10 contract is still higher if any 4 programs are removed.

Both statements are accurate.

The Big 12 with Oklahoma, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Nebraska would likely the most valuable conference in America, and that’s not even considering the value of Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, etc.
No, that's not what I meant. First of all, I don't think this is happening at all. The Big 10 (B1G) is much stronger than the Big 10. Not even close.

Secondly my point was that the B1G has a richer contract than the Big 12, and even after the split despite the fact that the pie is cut into more pieces in the B1G. By 2026, the B1G will distribute $82 million to full members while the Big 10 will only get $62 million. It would make MUCH more sense for the B1G to take on 4 schools from the Big 12 than vise versa. The next conference re-shuffling will probably create 4 conferences of 16 members, and the Big 12 is probably the odd conference out, unless the ACC breaks up as the ACC TV contract is even smaller (though the conference has a lot of pride and tradition).
No one is saying the Big 12 is more valuable than the Big 10 - what’s being said is the Big 12 is dramatically more valuable than the Big 10 is minus those 4 programs. Texas and Oklahoma plus 8 random programs is arguably at least as valuable as the remaining Big 10 programs if those 4 are excluded.

If those 4 programs left the Big 10, the network partners would restructure the Big 10 payouts dramatically downward prior to the signing of a new deal. That is a certainty.
No doubt. And if the Big 12 plus OSU, Mich, PSU and Neb decided to become the first SuperConference--I'd look for two more Big 10 schools to join and round the conference out at 16. Wisconsin and Iowa?
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I can't think of a better way for some of the lesser schools in the Big 10 and ACC to weaken their future bargaining position, the next time TV contracts and revenue allocations issues arise within their conference. The top 3 or 4 programs of each conference, that are now looking like journeymen looking for a home, won't forget what their conference compadres did in 2020. If these lesser programs are so quick to fold their hand, then maybe they won't mind a revenue carve out down the road.
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