Tulane Upset over Auburn ?

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Jaxwave
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:15 pm

Auburn QBs and offense had great spring game.


Jaxwave
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:16 pm

Auburn QBs and offense had great spring game.
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nawlinspete
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:26 pm

Before we worry about upsetting Auburn we need to figure out what to do to upset FIU....
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DfromCT
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:33 pm

nawlinspete wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:26 pm
Before we worry about upsetting Auburn we need to figure out what to do to upset FIU....
Two posts this month that make sense. You are on a roll!
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Wave755
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:53 pm

DfromCT wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:13 pm
Wave755 wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:22 pm
For Sagarin's rating system as of the end of last season, January 7th, 2019, Auburn playing at home would have been a 22.01 pt. favorite over the Wave.
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/s ... onference/

But, that was under our old OC, no Justin McMillan for our first 8 games and senior classes that won't be back for either team.
Despite all the changes and a full season with McMillan, I would bet we're still close to 20 point underdogs come week 2. I hope we give them hell, but there's no doubt more wagers will be on Auburn if the spread is closer to 2 TD's than 3.
The spread will probably be 17.5 to 18.5 pts. regardless of how well we play for 2019.
winwave
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:07 pm

Jaxwave wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:15 pm
Auburn QBs and offense had great spring game.
So their defense sucks. Thanks. :mrgreen:
Last edited by winwave on Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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nawlinspete
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:10 pm

winwave wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:07 pm
Jaxwave wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:15 pm
Auburn QBs and offense had great spring game.
So there defense sucks. Thanks. :mrgreen:
So THEIR ....
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Wave QB
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:19 pm

nawlinspete wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:26 pm
Before we worry about upsetting Auburn we need to figure out what to do to upset FIU....
Yup.
Aberzombie1892
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:03 pm

Tulane has virtually no chance against Auburn, and that’s fine as the same could be said about the vast majority of other FBS teams.

Tulane needs to focus on having a winning record versus of FIU, Army, Houston, Memphis and USF, and, if it achieves that, the rest will sort it out.
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:59 pm

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:03 pm
Tulane has virtually no chance against Auburn, and that’s fine as the same could be said about the vast majority of other FBS teams.

Tulane needs to focus on having a winning record versus of FIU, Army, Houston, Memphis and USF, and, if it achieves that, the rest will sort it out.
I think you meant UCF. we don't play USF this year.
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Aberzombie1892
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Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:11 pm

winwave wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:59 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:03 pm
Tulane has virtually no chance against Auburn, and that’s fine as the same could be said about the vast majority of other FBS teams.

Tulane needs to focus on having a winning record versus of FIU, Army, Houston, Memphis and USF, and, if it achieves that, the rest will sort it out.
I think you meant UCF. we don't play USF this year.
You’re right, but the point still stands.
Bicoastalwave
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:13 pm

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:11 pm
winwave wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:59 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:03 pm
Tulane has virtually no chance against Auburn, and that’s fine as the same could be said about the vast majority of other FBS teams.

Tulane needs to focus on having a winning record versus of FIU, Army, Houston, Memphis and USF, and, if it achieves that, the rest will sort it out.
I think you meant UCF. we don't play USF this year.
You’re right, but the point still stands.
This topic began because we were chosen as one of several potential upset bids over big time programs. As has been said Auburn doesn’t look to be a too 10 team and is predicted to lose 5+ games (against great competition).

We have mentioned several times in this thread that the players and coaches need to be focused on FIU. Thankfully on internet message boards we can be less focused. Just for fun- what is the actual odds you would give Tulane of beating ? If “Virtually no chance” is 1 % or 4+ touchdown underdogs i would make that wager. I truly believe we will score on them multiple times, and our dline can get to their QB.
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:02 pm

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:13 pm
We have mentioned several times in this thread that the players and coaches need to be focused on FIU.
True, we can be sure WF is focused on no game but FIU. We can afford to lose the Auburn game, we cannot afford to lose the FIU game.
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:31 pm

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:13 pm
Just for fun- what is the actual odds you would give Tulane of beating ? If “Virtually no chance” is 1 % or 4+ touchdown underdogs i would make that wager.
I think we have a 25-33% chance for an upset. If anyone wishes to offer 4-1 (you put up $100, I'll put up $25) just let me know. I may want summa dat.
Aberzombie1892
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:35 pm

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:13 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:11 pm
winwave wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:59 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:03 pm
Tulane has virtually no chance against Auburn, and that’s fine as the same could be said about the vast majority of other FBS teams.

Tulane needs to focus on having a winning record versus of FIU, Army, Houston, Memphis and USF, and, if it achieves that, the rest will sort it out.
I think you meant UCF. we don't play USF this year.
You’re right, but the point still stands.
This topic began because we were chosen as one of several potential upset bids over big time programs. As has been said Auburn doesn’t look to be a too 10 team and is predicted to lose 5+ games (against great competition).

We have mentioned several times in this thread that the players and coaches need to be focused on FIU. Thankfully on internet message boards we can be less focused. Just for fun- what is the actual odds you would give Tulane of beating ? If “Virtually no chance” is 1 % or 4+ touchdown underdogs i would make that wager. I truly believe we will score on them multiple times, and our dline can get to their QB.
Bill Connelly's S&P+ says Tulane has a 3% chance of victory, which sounds about right.

Even though Auburn is losing a multiyear starter at QB, it looks like it has plenty of good replacements if its spring game was any indication of what to expect, and, while Auburn could potentially struggle to reach bowl eligibility (w/Oregon, Florida, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and MS State on the Schedule), it would still be operating at a high level as compared to mid-range and lower FBS programs.
Bicoastalwave
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:42 pm

Bill connelly has said he expects Tulane to be better then his algorithm predicts, and that the transfers amongst other factors arent actually taken into account. Athlon (my personal favorite) has us ranked reasonably.

Auburn’s QB’s are good- No doubt. Auburn also perpetually has insane recruiting classes. I’m not saying we will be favored or we are likely to win. But I’ll agree with Green lanterns odds.
Aberzombie1892
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Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:12 pm

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:42 pm
Bill connelly has said he expects Tulane to be better then his algorithm predicts, and that the transfers amongst other factors arent actually taken into account. Athlon (my personal favorite) has us ranked reasonably.

Auburn’s QB’s are good- No doubt. Auburn also perpetually has insane recruiting classes. I’m not saying we will be favored or we are likely to win. But I’ll agree with Green lanterns odds.
He did say that, but, at the same time, he also cautioned that’s tulane would likely be either a top 80 (similar to Athlon) or top 100 team, and neither of those are good enough for a 25-33% shot against Auburn.
sader24
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:45 am

GreenLantern wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:31 pm
Bicoastalwave wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:13 pm
Just for fun- what is the actual odds you would give Tulane of beating ? If “Virtually no chance” is 1 % or 4+ touchdown underdogs i would make that wager.
I think we have a 25-33% chance for an upset. If anyone wishes to offer 4-1 (you put up $100, I'll put up $25) just let me know. I may want summa dat.
What about $100K to $25K.
HoustonWave
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:33 am

winwave wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:20 pm
It would be a signature win and one we sorely need. Even 98 didn't have that. It was a collective body of work for them. As for WF leaving I hope we encounter that worry at the end of the year. If we do I think we keep him. The Kansas and K-State jobs both got filled. He'll be almost 60. If he does leave we'll have Will Hall sitting there. It's all good.
All good points. We need to keep working to shake the Tulane mentality of fearing the consequences of success. Even if the P5 comes after Fritz, I’m not so sure he’ll bite. His removal of Ruse suggests that he really wants to win here, and he’s smart enough to know if he goes to a P5 he’ll constantly be under pressure. If he keeps winning here, he’ll be a legend long after he retires, and would be a good candidate to replace Dannen, if needed. All that has to look pretty good when your 60 years old. A key question is how much WF and his family enjoy living in N.O.? Lastly, I’m hopeful that Fitts and Dannen could line up some well heeled alums to match the P5 money that WF might attract. In the meantime, onward and upward for our football program.
Tulane is the University of Louisiana
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GreenLantern
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:14 pm

sader24 wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:45 am
GreenLantern wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:31 pm
Bicoastalwave wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:13 pm
Just for fun- what is the actual odds you would give Tulane of beating ? If “Virtually no chance” is 1 % or 4+ touchdown underdogs i would make that wager.
I think we have a 25-33% chance for an upset. If anyone wishes to offer 4-1 (you put up $100, I'll put up $25) just let me know. I may want summa dat.
What about $100K to $25K.
I may be ignorant but I'm not stupid.
DfromCT
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:25 pm

The talk about losing WF to a P5 is just as, if not more premature than the talk about upsetting Auburn.

Last year we had some of this discussion before the season then had many of the same posters calling for his job when we started 2-5!
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
Aberzombie1892
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:32 pm

DfromCT wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:25 pm
The talk about losing WF to a P5 is just as, if not more premature than the talk about upsetting Auburn.

Last year we had some of this discussion before the season then had many of the same posters calling for his job when we started 2-5!
....and Tulane's 2019 schedule starts off pretty difficult by G5 standards and simply having a winning record there would be worthwhile (FIU, @Auburn, FCS, Houston, @Army, UConn, then @Memphis).
Bicoastalwave
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:42 pm

Any discussion of next season could be argued to be “premature”. But we’re on a internet message board, in the slow season and civil conversation about predictions & potential upsets from online publications is fun.
winwave
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 6:38 pm

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:42 pm
Any discussion of next season could be argued to be “premature”. But we’re on a internet message board, in the slow season and civil conversation about predictions & potential upsets from online publications is fun.
This.
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winwave
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Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:30 pm

HoustonWave wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:33 am
winwave wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:20 pm
It would be a signature win and one we sorely need. Even 98 didn't have that. It was a collective body of work for them. As for WF leaving I hope we encounter that worry at the end of the year. If we do I think we keep him. The Kansas and K-State jobs both got filled. He'll be almost 60. If he does leave we'll have Will Hall sitting there. It's all good.
All good points. We need to keep working to shake the Tulane mentality of fearing the consequences of success. Even if the P5 comes after Fritz, I’m not so sure he’ll bite. His removal of Ruse suggests that he really wants to win here, and he’s smart enough to know if he goes to a P5 he’ll constantly be under pressure. If he keeps winning here, he’ll be a legend long after he retires, and would be a good candidate to replace Dannen, if needed. All that has to look pretty good when your 60 years old. A key question is how much WF and his family enjoy living in N.O.? Lastly, I’m hopeful that Fitts and Dannen could line up some well heeled alums to match the P5 money that WF might attract. In the meantime, onward and upward for our football program.
By all accounts WF and his wife really like it here.
Let's Roll !
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