ESPN Invitational Playoff Rankings

UCF, Cincinnati, UConn, ECU, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, SMU, Temple, Tulsa
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DfromCT
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:20 am

The first poll of "The Playoff Committee" rankings came out yesterday. Despite having the nation's longest winning streak, and the NCAA acknowledging their self-proclaimed national championship last year, UCF continues to get little respect in this poll. Keep in mind that the NCAA does not recognize the winner of this made-for-TV playoff as the D1a (FBS) national champions. Here's the rankings from this first poll:

Alabama (8-0)
Clemson (8-0)
LSU (7-1)
Notre Dame (8-0)
Michigan (7-1)
Georgia (7-1)
Oklahoma (7-1)
Washington State (7-1)
Kentucky (7-1)
Ohio State (7-1)
Florida (6-2)
UCF (7-0)
West Virginia (6-1)
Penn State (6-2)
Utah (6-2)
Iowa (6-2)
Texas (6-2)
Mississippi State (5-3)
Syracuse (6-2)
Texas A&M (5-3)
NC State (5-2)
Boston College (6-2)
Fresno State (7-1)
Iowa State (4-3)
Virginia (6-2)

The "P" factor is certainly in play. Putting UCF (which defeated the only team that beat BOTH of the playoff finalists last year in their bowl game) that far down is ludicrous. The way I see it (through admittedly tainted glasses) is that until beaten, UCF is still defending their national championship.


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Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:41 am

None of this is about fairness or equity, but sports fans should know that by now.

That being said, in addition to UCF's situation, it's interesting that Houston did not make the list, especially given that it defeated previously undefeated USF.
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:06 am

I'm all for our conference but they do take strength of schedule into account. It matters and it matters a lot as it should. So terms like UCF will have to really toughen up on their schedules if they want to make it.
Last edited by winwave on Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:35 am

winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:06 am
I'm all for our conference but they do take strength of schedule into account. It matters and it matters a lot as it should. So terms like UCF will have to really toughen up on their schedules if they want to make it.

D- where did the NCAA acknowledge their MNC?
The AAC us "down" this year Navy, Memphis are having bad years and just got their azzes kicked by ND and Mizzou.... Cincy has been a nice surprise, UH is about where everyone thought they would be, but they got their cans kicked in Lubbock....ECU, Tulsa have been further down they many tought they would be, and UConn is a toal disaster...so UCF is about where they should be......
Last edited by golfnut69 on Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:44 am

After this weekend a two loss LSU will stay ahead of an unbeaten UCF. The G5 will never get a shot at a 4 team playoff. UCF has won like 20 straight and still can’t crack the Top 10.
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:09 am

tpstulane wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:44 am
After this weekend a two loss LSU will stay ahead of an unbeaten UCF. The G5 will never get a shot at a 4 team playoff. UCF has won like 20 straight and still can’t crack the Top 10.

I get the angst. But what would UCF's record be right now if they had played LSU's schedule?
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:22 am

winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:09 am
tpstulane wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:44 am
After this weekend a two loss LSU will stay ahead of an unbeaten UCF. The G5 will never get a shot at a 4 team playoff. UCF has won like 20 straight and still can’t crack the Top 10.

I get the angst. But what would UCF's record be right now if they had played LSU's schedule?
Auburn and Miami were obviously overrated when they played LSU. So it’s hard to tell. UCF hosting UGA would be interesting. Maybe we see that matchup during the bowl season. I think UCF would have to travel and beat a Top 10 school before getting recognized. I’m not disagreeing only pointing out that they won’t get respect until they beat a Top 10 team on the road. But then again I remember not long ago Houston beating highly ranked #3 OU in a so called “statement” game but that still didn’t carry much weight with the pollsters.
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:47 pm

winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:09 am
tpstulane wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:44 am
After this weekend a two loss LSU will stay ahead of an unbeaten UCF. The G5 will never get a shot at a 4 team playoff. UCF has won like 20 straight and still can’t crack the Top 10.

I get the angst. But what would UCF's record be right now if they had played LSU's schedule?
What is LSU's record in their last 21 games?

I know this year is this year and last year was last year, but at some point you have to give some recognition to a very long winning streak.
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:31 pm

DfromCT wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:47 pm
winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:09 am
tpstulane wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:44 am
After this weekend a two loss LSU will stay ahead of an unbeaten UCF. The G5 will never get a shot at a 4 team playoff. UCF has won like 20 straight and still can’t crack the Top 10.

I get the angst. But what would UCF's record be right now if they had played LSU's schedule?
What is LSU's record in their last 21 games?

I know this year is this year and last year was last year, but at some point you have to give some recognition to a very long winning streak.
This to a certain extent. Alabama has defeated virtually no one (i.e. Texas A&M and that's it), and yet it's ranked #1 overall. UCF may not have defeated a team as strong at Texas A&M, but the CFP committee has shown that undefeated teams in the P5 get the benefit of the doubt and are guaranteed to get "in" as long as they remain undefeated. While it's understandable that UCF would be ranked lower than Alabama, it should be ranked -that- much lower than Alabama, especially considering that it is still undefeated.

An ~#8 ranking would have been more appropriate.
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:32 pm

I want UCF to get the respect they deserve and have earned with this 1 1/2 year win streak they are on, but being totally honest for this season, who have they beat. If i read right, they haven't beat a team with a winning record yet. The end of their schedule will change all that with Temple, USF and Cincinnati. Just looking at that, they haven't really beat any teams we would say are "good". They should be ranked ahead of Florida for sure!

On a side note, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country, but to this point, their schedule is weak!
Louisville 2-6
Arkansas St 4-4
Ole Miss 5-3
Texas A&M 5-3
ULL 4-4
Arkansas 2-7
Missouri 4-4
Tennessee 3-5

Yes i think they are one of the best 4 teams, but they are looked at as the best team ever. It's funny to watch sports shows and hear about how clemson and the likes haven't played a "sec schedule". I am still waiting for Bama to play one as well.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if lsu beats them this weekend. (that just turned my stomach over typing that)
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:56 pm

chigoyboy wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:32 pm
I want UCF to get the respect they deserve and have earned with this 1 1/2 year win streak they are on, but being totally honest for this season, who have they beat. If i read right, they haven't beat a team with a winning record yet. The end of their schedule will change all that with Temple, USF and Cincinnati. Just looking at that, they haven't really beat any teams we would say are "good". They should be ranked ahead of Florida for sure!

On a side note, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country, but to this point, their schedule is weak!
Louisville 2-6
Arkansas St 4-4
Ole Miss 5-3
Texas A&M 5-3
ULL 4-4
Arkansas 2-7
Missouri 4-4
Tennessee 3-5

Yes i think they are one of the best 4 teams, but they are looked at as the best team ever. It's funny to watch sports shows and hear about how clemson and the likes haven't played a "sec schedule". I am still waiting for Bama to play one as well.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if lsu beats them this weekend. (that just turned my stomach over typing that)
Let's face the facts..Arkansas, will never again be a "National Contender", they are in Arkansas for gawds sake and not enuff Texas' kids want to go there, OU and Okie State, who have to come to the State of Texas to play, get those kids..Ole Miss, the ship has sailed, they can and will be a 8 or 9 win team each year, but the same will be said for MSU.... the issue with Texas A&M'.not many kids from Texas want to play all of their away games in states not named Texas, mom and dad have to pay for travel and except for LSU nothin' is close...Mizzou, nothing less needs to be said, they are Arkansas, just further north...Tennessee, where the hell has Phil Fulmer gone....L'Ville...not enuff Pizzas to go around, so not enuff players gettin' paid
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:40 pm

chigoyboy wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:32 pm
I want UCF to get the respect they deserve and have earned with this 1 1/2 year win streak they are on, but being totally honest for this season, who have they beat. If i read right, they haven't beat a team with a winning record yet. The end of their schedule will change all that with Temple, USF and Cincinnati. Just looking at that, they haven't really beat any teams we would say are "good". They should be ranked ahead of Florida for sure!

On a side note, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country, but to this point, their schedule is weak!
Louisville 2-6
Arkansas St 4-4
Ole Miss 5-3
Texas A&M 5-3
ULL 4-4
Arkansas 2-7
Missouri 4-4
Tennessee 3-5

Yes i think they are one of the best 4 teams, but they are looked at as the best team ever. It's funny to watch sports shows and hear about how clemson and the likes haven't played a "sec schedule". I am still waiting for Bama to play one as well.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if lsu beats them this weekend. (that just turned my stomach over typing that)
Well, the SEC has been down for years, but the CFP committee cares about the following 3 items in order:
1. If you are undefeated (undefeated P5s get into the CFP period)
2. If you are not undefeated, how many losses you have (no P5 with 2 losses has gotten in)
3. How good your wins are (number and quality of good wins)

Assuming the above is true, Alabama is still undefeated, and, until it loses, it would not fall out the top 4 even if its remaining schedule was a joke, which it kind of is other than LSU, and, assuming Alabama wins out, the SEC East champ. In contrast to Alabama, P5s with a loss already are at the mercy of what happens across the landscape between now and the end of the season, as 1 loss Michigan versus 1 loss Oklahoma would be quite the debate at the end of the year and that would certainly be avoided by a Notre Dame loss which would allow both to get in.

UCF is another contrast. It's true that its' schedule has been weaker, but as long as it continues to defeat the teams that appear in front it, it should get most of the benefit of the doubt that Alabama has. It, like Alabama, has its most difficult opponents remaining on its schedule, but, even though that is the case, it is ranked significantly lower.
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:06 pm

the CFP committee looks at P5 schools 1st, 2nd and 3rd. The will take a 3 loss lsu team over an undefeated P6 team with a top 30 strength schedule. I am the first to dog my lsu friends about the strength of the sec out of conference schedule, But i have to give it to lsu, they have usually tried to schedule a top 15 team each year. When they scheduled Washington, they were just coming off the Rose bowl and then had like 3, 1 win seasons. They played a solid Wisconsin team.
Bama plays no one but gets credit because of their name and the SEC on the jersey.
I'll be the first to agree that you can only play who's on your schedule but to play devils advocate, why not tell Notre Dame to schedule 12 traditionally weak teams like Vandy, Rutgers, Kansas and Wake to go undefeated.
I think quality of your wins needs to be 1b to are you undefeated.
I give UCF much credit, they did schedule a decent Pitt team and a UNC team that has been pretty solid until the last year when they have been destroyed with injuries. I want them IN the playoff!!!! Especially if they win out, i think they would deserve it.... again....
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Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:25 pm

DfromCT wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:47 pm
winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:09 am
tpstulane wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:44 am
After this weekend a two loss LSU will stay ahead of an unbeaten UCF. The G5 will never get a shot at a 4 team playoff. UCF has won like 20 straight and still can’t crack the Top 10.

I get the angst. But what would UCF's record be right now if they had played LSU's schedule?
What is LSU's record in their last 21 games?

I know this year is this year and last year was last year, but at some point you have to give some recognition to a very long winning streak.
That doesn't address the SOS issue. There is a difference. There just is. Like golf I think their #12 ranking is rightful recognition of it.
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Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:01 pm

winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:25 pm


That doesn't address the SOS issue. There is a difference. There just is. Like golf I think their #12 ranking is rightful recognition of it.
Here's the problem with SOS. Its biased from the beginning. If you were to put the 12 AAC school ranked as #1 to #12 at the beginning of the year, most of us would stay in the top rankings because we're just losing to each other.

Take a look at this SOS rankings list.
There are 64 P5 schools. There are FOUR P5schools ranked below #67 in SOS. So, only 3 G5 schools had a harder schedule than ANY P5 school? One of the three is Navy, which always plays a tough schedule. Simple math: if you put inaccurate numbers in to start, everything after that is skewed.


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Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:20 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:01 pm
winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:25 pm


That doesn't address the SOS issue. There is a difference. There just is. Like golf I think their #12 ranking is rightful recognition of it.
Here's the problem with SOS. Its biased from the beginning. If you were to put the 12 AAC school ranked as #1 to #12 at the beginning of the year, most of us would stay in the top rankings because we're just losing to each other.

Take a look at this SOS rankings list.
There are 64 P5 schools. There are FOUR P5schools ranked below #67 in SOS. So, only 3 G5 schools had a harder schedule than ANY P5 school? One of the three is Navy, which always plays a tough schedule. Simple math: if you put inaccurate numbers in to start, everything after that is skewed.


https://www.teamrankings.com/college-fo ... h-by-other
+1,000,000

For example, other than Georgia, did LSU really beat anyone that should have landed them in the top 5 prior to their game with Alabama? Is Kentucky really at top 20 team? There's a lot of bias involved, and it's not just the P5 BS, but also the P5 bias to the pre-season rankings. There should be none until October 1st.
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Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:29 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:01 pm
winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:25 pm


That doesn't address the SOS issue. There is a difference. There just is. Like golf I think their #12 ranking is rightful recognition of it.
Here's the problem with SOS. Its biased from the beginning. If you were to put the 12 AAC school ranked as #1 to #12 at the beginning of the year, most of us would stay in the top rankings because we're just losing to each other.

Take a look at this SOS rankings list.
There are 64 P5 schools. There are FOUR P5schools ranked below #67 in SOS. So, only 3 G5 schools had a harder schedule than ANY P5 school? One of the three is Navy, which always plays a tough schedule. Simple math: if you put inaccurate numbers in to start, everything after that is skewed.


https://www.teamrankings.com/college-fo ... h-by-other
If you ranked the 12 AAC teams #'1 -12 initially nobody would follow you after that. Of course there is some bias . But that doesn't change the fact that UCF has not played a tough schedule by any measure. They have no business scheduling a S. Carolina State. There are more than enough weak sisters in this conference. To get the respect to climb above where they are ranked now they have to schedule up. I'm an AAC guy through and through but that's just the reality of it. It's frustrating but there is a fix.
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Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:37 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:01 pm
winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:25 pm


That doesn't address the SOS issue. There is a difference. There just is. Like golf I think their #12 ranking is rightful recognition of it.
Here's the problem with SOS. Its biased from the beginning. If you were to put the 12 AAC school ranked as #1 to #12 at the beginning of the year, most of us would stay in the top rankings because we're just losing to each other.

Take a look at this SOS rankings list.
There are 64 P5 schools. There are FOUR P5schools ranked below #67 in SOS. So, only 3 G5 schools had a harder schedule than ANY P5 school? One of the three is Navy, which always plays a tough schedule. Simple math: if you put inaccurate numbers in to start, everything after that is skewed.


https://www.teamrankings.com/college-fo ... h-by-other
Absolutely. Same thing happens in baseball.
It’s set up to favor P5’s. They are trying to even harder to avoid scheduling G5’s in the future.
Stadiums get old, winning never does.
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Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:21 pm

tpstulane wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:37 pm
RobertM320 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:01 pm
winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:25 pm


That doesn't address the SOS issue. There is a difference. There just is. Like golf I think their #12 ranking is rightful recognition of it.
Here's the problem with SOS. Its biased from the beginning. If you were to put the 12 AAC school ranked as #1 to #12 at the beginning of the year, most of us would stay in the top rankings because we're just losing to each other.

Take a look at this SOS rankings list.
There are 64 P5 schools. There are FOUR P5schools ranked below #67 in SOS. So, only 3 G5 schools had a harder schedule than ANY P5 school? One of the three is Navy, which always plays a tough schedule. Simple math: if you put inaccurate numbers in to start, everything after that is skewed.


https://www.teamrankings.com/college-fo ... h-by-other
Absolutely. Same thing happens in baseball.
It’s set up to favor P5’s. They are trying to even harder to avoid scheduling G5’s in the future.
Y’all don’t know what y’all are talking about and I have to say this every year during baseball season.
Preseason rankings have no bearing on SOS. There is a formula, mostly based on the records of your opponents.
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:25 am

Profoundwizard wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:21 pm
tpstulane wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:37 pm
RobertM320 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:01 pm
winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:25 pm


That doesn't address the SOS issue. There is a difference. There just is. Like golf I think their #12 ranking is rightful recognition of it.
Here's the problem with SOS. Its biased from the beginning. If you were to put the 12 AAC school ranked as #1 to #12 at the beginning of the year, most of us would stay in the top rankings because we're just losing to each other.

Take a look at this SOS rankings list.
There are 64 P5 schools. There are FOUR P5schools ranked below #67 in SOS. So, only 3 G5 schools had a harder schedule than ANY P5 school? One of the three is Navy, which always plays a tough schedule. Simple math: if you put inaccurate numbers in to start, everything after that is skewed.


https://www.teamrankings.com/college-fo ... h-by-other
Absolutely. Same thing happens in baseball.
It’s set up to favor P5’s. They are trying to even harder to avoid scheduling G5’s in the future.
Y’all don’t know what y’all are talking about and I have to say this every year during baseball season.
Preseason rankings have no bearing on SOS. There is a formula, mostly based on the records of your opponents.
So, you're saying, if LSU played Utah State, UCF and Boise State (25-4),instead of Miss State, Arkansas and Miami (13-17), their SOS would go up? I doubt it. Would it improve their chances of getting in the CFP? No way. Its PERCEPTION.

The formula you're talking about is used to some extent in baseball, but a portion of that formula includes RPI, and that is heavily biased in favor of the P5. Best example was 2016, when 7 SEC schools made the tournament. All 7 hosted, a regional. Five lost. The two who moved on hosted Super Regionals. Only one made it to the CWS.
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Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:14 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:25 am
Profoundwizard wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:21 pm
tpstulane wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:37 pm
RobertM320 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 7:01 pm
winwave wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:25 pm


That doesn't address the SOS issue. There is a difference. There just is. Like golf I think their #12 ranking is rightful recognition of it.
Here's the problem with SOS. Its biased from the beginning. If you were to put the 12 AAC school ranked as #1 to #12 at the beginning of the year, most of us would stay in the top rankings because we're just losing to each other.

Take a look at this SOS rankings list.
There are 64 P5 schools. There are FOUR P5schools ranked below #67 in SOS. So, only 3 G5 schools had a harder schedule than ANY P5 school? One of the three is Navy, which always plays a tough schedule. Simple math: if you put inaccurate numbers in to start, everything after that is skewed.


https://www.teamrankings.com/college-fo ... h-by-other
Absolutely. Same thing happens in baseball.
It’s set up to favor P5’s. They are trying to even harder to avoid scheduling G5’s in the future.
Y’all don’t know what y’all are talking about and I have to say this every year during baseball season.
Preseason rankings have no bearing on SOS. There is a formula, mostly based on the records of your opponents.
So, you're saying, if LSU played Utah State, UCF and Boise State (25-4),instead of Miss State, Arkansas and Miami (13-17), their SOS would go up? I doubt it. Would it improve their chances of getting in the CFP? No way. Its PERCEPTION.

The formula you're talking about is used to some extent in baseball, but a portion of that formula includes RPI, and that is heavily biased in favor of the P5. Best example was 2016, when 7 SEC schools made the tournament. All 7 hosted, a regional. Five lost. The two who moved on hosted Super Regionals. Only one made it to the CWS.
I’m sorry RPI is a formula, it has no biases. Tulane had the #15 and #20 SOS in baseball the last two seasons because we went out and played good teams. RPI and SOS are calculations based on the records of your opponents and the opponents that they played too. RPI and SOS don’t know or care about what conference you’re in because they are mathematical equations. All they do is calculate who you have played
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