Line Closing Wake Forest 6 pts. > Wave

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Wave755
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Spread opens Wake Forest 7.5 pts. > Wave (Rotation nos. 139-140 for Vegas Sheet). http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foo ... las-vegas/

In 2016 we lost to these guys 7 to 3 @ Winston-Salem. Last year Wake was 8-5, 4-4 (ACC) and beat Boston College, Louisville & Syracuse and played close FSU & ND, lost to Clemson 28-14 and beat Texas A & M 55 to 52 in the Belk Bowl. http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-17/2017 ... hedule.php

I think Willie Fritz will have us ready and I am hoping for a 2017 Houston game like effort from Banks and the team. This should be a close one.

And, line opens ‘Canes 3 pts. > LSWho (Rotation nos. 217-218 for Vegas Sheet). Hopefully, a ‘Canes victory at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas on 9/2 will be the first nail in the coffin for Alleva’s tenure as LSU AD.
Last edited by Wave755 on Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:45 am, edited 2 times in total.


golfnut69
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gotta admit I thought the opening line would be 10+ points.....I am sure the wake'sters are opening their checkbooks for early betting

and picked 6th in the Atlantic Division
https://www.journalnow.com/sports/wfu/w ... 588f6.html
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golfnut69 wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:37 pm gotta admit I thought the opening line would be 10+ points.....I am sure the wake'sters are opening their checkbooks for early betting

and picked 6th in the Atlantic Division
https://www.journalnow.com/sports/wfu/w ... 588f6.html
The suspension of Wake Forest's starting QB likely played a role with the line. It will be interesting to see what the line is at actual kickoff.
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Yeahh that’s where that former New Orleans hornets player went huh? Think is name was Joshua Mackles
DfromCT
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Aberzombie1892 wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:33 pm
golfnut69 wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:37 pm gotta admit I thought the opening line would be 10+ points.....I am sure the wake'sters are opening their checkbooks for early betting

and picked 6th in the Atlantic Division
https://www.journalnow.com/sports/wfu/w ... 588f6.html
The suspension of Wake Forest's starting QB likely played a role with the line. It will be interesting to see what the line is at actual kickoff.
Yes, I'm shocked it's not a 10+ point line to open. Wake's coach is in year four, and has built his team with measurable results faster than Coach Fritz has done with Tulane. They run a hurry up offense that averaged a play every 12 seconds. Despite losing their starting QB to graduation and the next one up to suspension, I suspect we'll need to score more than 30 points to win this game. Both teams are suspect on D.

If the game took place in December of last year Wake would be a 13+ point favorite, and I'd probably be inclined to lay the points.
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golfnut69
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DfromCT wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 5:01 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:33 pm
golfnut69 wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:37 pm gotta admit I thought the opening line would be 10+ points.....I am sure the wake'sters are opening their checkbooks for early betting

and picked 6th in the Atlantic Division
https://www.journalnow.com/sports/wfu/w ... 588f6.html
The suspension of Wake Forest's starting QB likely played a role with the line. It will be interesting to see what the line is at actual kickoff.
Yes, I'm shocked it's not a 10+ point line to open. Wake's coach is in year four, and has built his team with measurable results faster than Coach Fritz has done with Tulane. They run a hurry up offense that averaged a play every 12 seconds. Despite losing their starting QB to graduation and the next one up to suspension, I suspect we'll need to score more than 30 points to win this game. Both teams are suspect on D.

If the game took place in December of last year Wake would be a 13+ point favorite, and I'd probably be inclined to lay the points.
D...this will be the classic " ya can't run a play if ain't got da' ball " game plan...run, run run,eat the clock, make them play catch up and commit mistakes...keep you d fresh by holding on to the ball...one other thing...I know NC is not Arizona, but the humidity in NOLA could be a factor
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DfromCT
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golfnut69 wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 5:50 pm
DfromCT wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 5:01 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:33 pm
golfnut69 wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:37 pm gotta admit I thought the opening line would be 10+ points.....I am sure the wake'sters are opening their checkbooks for early betting

and picked 6th in the Atlantic Division
https://www.journalnow.com/sports/wfu/w ... 588f6.html
The suspension of Wake Forest's starting QB likely played a role with the line. It will be interesting to see what the line is at actual kickoff.
Yes, I'm shocked it's not a 10+ point line to open. Wake's coach is in year four, and has built his team with measurable results faster than Coach Fritz has done with Tulane. They run a hurry up offense that averaged a play every 12 seconds. Despite losing their starting QB to graduation and the next one up to suspension, I suspect we'll need to score more than 30 points to win this game. Both teams are suspect on D.

If the game took place in December of last year Wake would be a 13+ point favorite, and I'd probably be inclined to lay the points.
D...this will be the classic " ya can't run a play if ain't got da' ball " game plan...run, run run,eat the clock, make them play catch up and commit mistakes...keep you d fresh by holding on to the ball...one other thing...I know NC is not Arizona, but the humidity in NOLA could be a factor
Totally agree, but when I said the same months ago, a certain adamant poster here told me Fritz cannot go back to the ground and pound game as he learned during the second half of last year that a 50-50 balance is the only way to win. I see his point, but this is DEFINITELY a game where we should try to dominate time of possession. If we shoot it out with Wake, we'll get smoked. Yeah, the two teams may combine for 115 points, but we might lose a shoot out by 20 or more.
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golfnut69
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DfromCT wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:05 pm
golfnut69 wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 5:50 pm
DfromCT wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 5:01 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:33 pm
golfnut69 wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:37 pm gotta admit I thought the opening line would be 10+ points.....I am sure the wake'sters are opening their checkbooks for early betting

and picked 6th in the Atlantic Division
https://www.journalnow.com/sports/wfu/w ... 588f6.html
The suspension of Wake Forest's starting QB likely played a role with the line. It will be interesting to see what the line is at actual kickoff.
Yes, I'm shocked it's not a 10+ point line to open. Wake's coach is in year four, and has built his team with measurable results faster than Coach Fritz has done with Tulane. They run a hurry up offense that averaged a play every 12 seconds. Despite losing their starting QB to graduation and the next one up to suspension, I suspect we'll need to score more than 30 points to win this game. Both teams are suspect on D.

If the game took place in December of last year Wake would be a 13+ point favorite, and I'd probably be inclined to lay the points.
D...this will be the classic " ya can't run a play if ain't got da' ball " game plan...run, run run,eat the clock, make them play catch up and commit mistakes...keep you d fresh by holding on to the ball...one other thing...I know NC is not Arizona, but the humidity in NOLA could be a factor
Totally agree, but when I said the same months ago, a certain adamant poster here told me Fritz cannot go back to the ground and pound game as he learned during the second half of last year that a 50-50 balance is the only way to win. I see his point, but this is DEFINITELY a game where we should try to dominate time of possession. If we shoot it out with Wake, we'll get smoked. Yeah, the two teams may combine for 115 points, but we might lose a shoot out by 20 or more.
I predict some time during Tulane's 1st possession, the "long ball" is thrown..and it may be the first play from scrimmage..
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winwave
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I stand by that. If we go back to being strictly run centric that doesn't translate to controlling TOP. As you've admitted our O-Line is still suspect. so going three and out and not scoring and then giving the ball back so they then run their offense and score equals a crushing opening game loss. We opened the offense and almost got Bowl eligible. We have the same QB and much of our offense back. Go with what got us going. Let them worry about us.
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Wave755
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winwave wrote: Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:51 pm I stand by that. If we go back to being strictly run centric that doesn't translate to controlling TOP. As you've admitted our O-Line is still suspect. so going three and out and not scoring and then giving the ball back so they then run their offense and score equals a crushing opening game loss. We opened the offense and almost got Bowl eligible. We have the same QB and much of our offense back. Go with what got us going. Let them worry about us.
I think Willie Fritz will be tempted to open things up like he did for the Houston game. Although, the Belk Bowl last year was a real shoot-out between Wake Forest and A & M with Wake Forest winning in a final score of 55 to 52 - this was not an overtime game, both Wake Forest and A & M each had over 600 yards in total offense for regulation.

Still, I think Fritz will test our defense against their second string quarterback and if we can simply slow up Wake Forest, he will then go with the Jonathan Banks -Terren Encalade show we received such a great preview of last year against Houston.

Wake Forest will have a second string quarterback starting on the road and if the edge goes to us on defense, we will win this game; we should really move the ball on this team.
DfromCT
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They're going to move the ball on us, no doubt. This is a team that has a whole lot more proven offense than we do. I'm not saying we have to run the ball 75% of the time, but we need to control the ball and limit their opportunities. That's basic football 101. It's what Parcells did to beat opponents that had more firepower. And it's quite possible for the run to set up the big pass play.
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They rode their defense under this coach when Elko was there. Last year their offense was good. They lost their QB and several good skill position guys. Their starter at QB for this year is suspended for our game. Yes they have their line back but the other players are for the most part gone so we catch this new crew in their first game. Maybe they'll be good. Maybe they won't be. Much better to catch them when we do.

Just running the ball doesn't guarantee controlling the ball. We still have a suspect line and new RB's. It could lead to 3 and outs or empty drives. If we're going to win significant games this year we need to score a lot of points. No one said we need to be 50-50 but we can't be 80-20 run centric and expect to win this year. Parcells had all the pieces to do that. Us not so much.
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winwave wrote: Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:20 pm Just running the ball doesn't guarantee controlling the ball. We still have a suspect line and new RB's. It could lead to 3 and outs or empty drives. If we're going to win significant games this year we need to score a lot of points. No one said we need to be 50-50 but we can't be 80-20 run centric and expect to win this year. Parcells had all the pieces to do that. Us not so much.
Both the eyeball test and the box scores reveal the same conclusions: we are a better team when we are unpredictable with a mix of run/pass then we are as a run heavy offensive.

Last year we ranked 19th in TOP (32:15), nearly exactly the same as 2016. We also ranked in the bottom half of 3rd down efficiency (77th) - though up from 128th (dead as lass) in 2016. As much as we like to hang our hat on TOP, we have 7 wins in 2 years against non-FCS team with this philosophy that we are a grind it out kind of team. We aren't. We suck at grinding it out. We break off some nice long runs to offset our 19.2% stuff rate which is just about average. For those that follow advanced analytics our Rushing S&P+ last year ranked 92nd. That' not good.

For the season, Tulane limited opponents to 11.5 possessions per game. That's about 1 fewer possession then the national average. Which is good. But for those that need some examples, let's look at the games from last year were the best and worst in terms of what eating up clock should equate to: limiting opponents possessions:

BEST 3 GAMES limiting opponents possessions (10 or fewer)
-- ARMY (9) 27 run/ 22 pass (55%). Of course Army ate clock to with just 3 passes
-- UH (9) 42 run / 26 pass (62%). Passing yards > rushing yards by 48 yards
-- SMU (10) 39 run / 31 pass (56%). Passing yards > rushing yards by 119 yards
---- Avg. Possessions: 9.3; Run: 57.7%

WORST 4 GAMES limiting opponents possessions (13 or more)
-- TULSA (14) 59 run / 20 pass (75%). Made sense....Couldn't stop us + clock control
-- MEMPHIS (13) 43 run / 31 pass (58%) 43 runs in a 30 point loss...crazy
-- USF (13) 45 run / 24 pass (65%)
-- NAVY (13) 44 run / 13 pass (77%).
---- Avg. Possessions: 13.75; Run: 68.5%

I disagree with any strategy where we think the best approach is to try to pound out a win on the ground. We have a QB now that we should trust to put in the air more often and finally make our play calling unpredictable each week. IMO we'll have a better chance at winning if we are closer to a 50% pass team then if we continue to be a 65%+ run team.
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I'm not saying we should go 80% run or even 70% run. But to run the ball effectively keeps their best weapon, their offense, on the sidelines, while our worst unit, or at least most suspect coming into the season, on the sides and well rested.

I'm not and nor have I ever espoused going back to the ridiculous run/pass imbalance we had Fritz's first year. But a shoot out with a Wake team that was among the highest scoring in the country last year probably won't bode well. As I stated earlier, if we get into a shootout and teams combine for 100 points, I think we lose by 20 points. There's plenty of ways to play ball control and still have a balance.
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DfromCT wrote: Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:18 pm I'm not saying we should go 80% run or even 70% run. But to run the ball effectively keeps their best weapon, their offense, on the sidelines, while our worst unit, or at least most suspect coming into the season, on the sides and well rested.

I'm not and nor have I ever espoused going back to the ridiculous run/pass imbalance we had Fritz's first year. But a shoot out with a Wake team that was among the highest scoring in the country last year probably won't bode well. As I stated earlier, if we get into a shootout and teams combine for 100 points, I think we lose by 20 points. There's plenty of ways to play ball control and still have a balance.
So I think most agree that shootouts aren't our best chance, but you ignore the fact that an unbalanced attack may milk some clock but we don't convert 3rd downs in this run happy offense to limit possessions. We must be closer to 50/50 this year is we think we'll have any success. And it wasn't just WF's first year where we had games in the 70%+ if the last 2 games of 2017 (avg about 58% run aren't the blueprint for this season then we'll be disappointed again.
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Wake doesn’t have the same offense this year as they don’t have their QB and also other key skill position players. Just running doesn’t mean we will do it effectively. Net showed our poor key run stats and this game will be the backs first game in primary roles. Our experience is in the passing game as far as returning players. We have to keep them off balance to have a chance to win.
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netshorty wrote: Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:45 pm
DfromCT wrote: Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:18 pm I'm not saying we should go 80% run or even 70% run. But to run the ball effectively keeps their best weapon, their offense, on the sidelines, while our worst unit, or at least most suspect coming into the season, on the sides and well rested.

I'm not and nor have I ever espoused going back to the ridiculous run/pass imbalance we had Fritz's first year. But a shoot out with a Wake team that was among the highest scoring in the country last year probably won't bode well. As I stated earlier, if we get into a shootout and teams combine for 100 points, I think we lose by 20 points. There's plenty of ways to play ball control and still have a balance.
So I think most agree that shootouts aren't our best chance, but you ignore the fact that an unbalanced attack may milk some clock but we don't convert 3rd downs in this run happy offense to limit possessions. We must be closer to 50/50 this year is we think we'll have any success. And it wasn't just WF's first year where we had games in the 70%+ if the last 2 games of 2017 (avg about 58% run aren't the blueprint for this season then we'll be disappointed again.
You mention the Memphis game as crazy. We had one first down in the first six offensive series. The breakdown was 10 RB/WR runs, 5 passes (all incomplete), 3 sacks, and one QB scramble run. So, I assume the box score would indicate we had 14 runs and 5 passes, but in reality of the first 19 plays, 10 were runs and 9 were attempted pass plays. We were down 35 to zero after those 6 offensive series. I seem to recall a couple of the other games (USF being similar). I'm not sure if it was due to injuries to Banks or Banks was still picking up the offense, but the execution of the passing game in the first half of the season was dire. I don't believe Willie really wanted to be so one dimensional, but sacks and incompletions limited his options. Things got better as the season progressed as Banks started making completions and seemed to pick up the option component of the offense. Let's hope we pickup where we left of, presumably with a better 0-line and more experienced WR crew.
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Wavetrader wrote: Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:09 pm
netshorty wrote: Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:45 pm
DfromCT wrote: Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:18 pm I'm not saying we should go 80% run or even 70% run. But to run the ball effectively keeps their best weapon, their offense, on the sidelines, while our worst unit, or at least most suspect coming into the season, on the sides and well rested.

I'm not and nor have I ever espoused going back to the ridiculous run/pass imbalance we had Fritz's first year. But a shoot out with a Wake team that was among the highest scoring in the country last year probably won't bode well. As I stated earlier, if we get into a shootout and teams combine for 100 points, I think we lose by 20 points. There's plenty of ways to play ball control and still have a balance.
So I think most agree that shootouts aren't our best chance, but you ignore the fact that an unbalanced attack may milk some clock but we don't convert 3rd downs in this run happy offense to limit possessions. We must be closer to 50/50 this year is we think we'll have any success. And it wasn't just WF's first year where we had games in the 70%+ if the last 2 games of 2017 (avg about 58% run aren't the blueprint for this season then we'll be disappointed again.
You mention the Memphis game as crazy. We had one first down in the first six offensive series. The breakdown was 10 RB/WR runs, 5 passes (all incomplete), 3 sacks, and one QB scramble run. So, I assume the box score would indicate we had 14 runs and 5 passes, but in reality of the first 19 plays, 10 were runs and 9 were attempted pass plays. We were down 35 to zero after those 6 offensive series. I seem to recall a couple of the other games (USF being similar). I'm not sure if it was due to injuries to Banks or Banks was still picking up the offense, but the execution of the passing game in the first half of the season was dire. I don't believe Willie really wanted to be so one dimensional, but sacks and incompletions limited his options. Things got better as the season progressed as Banks started making completions and seemed to pick up the option component of the offense. Let's hope we pickup where we left of, presumably with a better 0-line and more experienced WR crew.
Great points on qb sacks counting as running plays. Even so, as you said we were down 35-0..and still managed around 40 run attempts... That's crazy. Unfortunately you're highlighting things about our terrible offense that we quickly forgot about with a couple of good efforts at the end of the year. But agree that run /pass mix must mimic that of the last 2 games. This notion of shortening the game and limiting opponent possessions by being run heavy is a recipe for failure.
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I think too much love is being shown Wake Forest. They are a decent team but we should be able to compete well. I think this game will be a shootout but one we can win. I expect that most of our games this year will be shootouts.
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greenphantom wrote: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:18 pm I think too much love is being shown Wake Forest. They are a decent team but we should be able to compete well. I think this game will be a shootout but one we can win. I expect that most of our games this year will be shootouts.
Other than Ohio State, this might be the best and most prolific offense we face. Yes, they lost their stud QB and their starter is suspended. But the OC has a ridiculous track record of putting together top 20 offenses.

http://www.wakeforestsports.com/sports/ ... 80425.html

I'm not discounting the steps we've taken on offense, and our coaching staff. I'd love to eat crow on August 31st (after sleeping off a victory celebration), flambeaux'd cajun style. But I fear the Wake Forest offense.



Footnote: The starting WF QB, suspended for 3 games, has been working out at WR and kick/punt returns. Sounds like the staff is pretty pleased with the kids stepping in. Footnote 2: Cam Carrol runs a 4.4 40 at 228 lbs? If he's the real deal, he could see a lot of PT this fall.
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Sorry but I think most here don't see it that way. It took him some time till he had that break out season there. Then they lost a lot on offense other than the line. As for the QB being tried elsewhere that most likely has to do with the staff realizing if they are going to go Bowling they need to get the new QB's as many quality reps as possible. Hopefully we're right.
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winwave wrote: Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:34 pm Sorry but I think most here don't see it that way. It took him some time till he had that break out season there. Then they lost a lot on offense other than the line. As for the QB being tried elsewhere that most likely has to do with the staff realizing if they are going to go Bowling they need to get the new QB's as many quality reps as possible. Hopefully we're right.
I'd love it if you're right. But the ball doesn't weigh much and that OC has done PLENTY with 1st year (and in some cases true Frosh) starters at QB. Unless our D is a lot better than we think (not suspect) Wake is going to move the ball and put points up against us.

And I don't think you speak for most. Not those that watched Wake put up 55 on A&M in the bowl game. "Only" returning your offensive line, from a team that ranked in the top 10 in many categories, is not a negative, IMHO. Again, the rock doesn't weigh much.

Tell you what, I put the under/over for Wake offense at 380 yards. Which one do you want? I'd take the over, and expect it leads to 30 + points. Go on record, win! I will admit if I'm wrong.
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Most do agree. That Wake offense is gone. That A&M defense was really bad. I know our D is suspect but I was encouraged by our young DT's coming in in the spring. It will be their first game together. however. With the way the game is played now I'll go with the over on both yet say the Wave wins in a shootout. If Wake had their offense from last year going against this defense I'd think they would get close to 500 yards and score in the 40's to 50's and we'd lose. Have at it as I'm headed out to be with family for the evening.
Last edited by winwave on Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:23 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Just wondering, this is the same OC and Wake Forest team that scored "7" whole points on us just 24 games ago?
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RobertM320 wrote: Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:56 pm Just wondering, this is the same OC and Wake Forest team that scored "7" whole points on us just 24 games ago?
Ha! And with only 10 first downs and a measly 175 yards of total offense...

Probably because we ran the ball 67% of the time and controlled the clock. Earned us a whopping 3 points...
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