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MicMan
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:33 pm

The gap between the AAC and Pac 12 isn't all that large. The gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5 is huge.


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RobertM320
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:59 pm

GreenLantern wrote:
winwave wrote:For the conference to become a P6 it needs to have several years of having at least 3 teams finish in the top 25. Like this year it will require it to win the G5 spot in the Bowl games every year too. In addition it needs those top teams to beef of their OOC schedules so they can really have something to hang their hat on.
What a catch-22. G5s are handicapped when it comes to recruiting (in the sense that most highly ranked recruits want to play for P5s) but must compete with P5s if they are ever to be considered as a competitive equal.
Exactly. We're expected to be competitive and be able to beat teams of 4* and 5* players with teams comprised mostly of 3* and 2* players, as well as play a schedule as tough as theirs.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:05 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
GreenLantern wrote:
winwave wrote:For the conference to become a P6 it needs to have several years of having at least 3 teams finish in the top 25. Like this year it will require it to win the G5 spot in the Bowl games every year too. In addition it needs those top teams to beef of their OOC schedules so they can really have something to hang their hat on.
What a catch-22. G5s are handicapped when it comes to recruiting (in the sense that most highly ranked recruits want to play for P5s) but must compete with P5s if they are ever to be considered as a competitive equal.
Exactly. We're expected to be competitive and be able to beat teams of 4* and 5* players with teams comprised mostly of 3* and 2* players, as well as play a schedule as tough as theirs.
The money gap between the AAC and P5 is just too much. AAC schools were investing like crazy cause most thought they had a shot at a P5 invite, now they find themselves deep in debt with no golden ticket in the forseeable future. Eventually it has to catch up to the league. But alas, there are only so many scholarships out ther and the key is to continue to separate the league from the other non power 5's, the goal of truly catching up to a league that makes $30mm+ more per team is crazy.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:09 pm

MicMan wrote:The gap between the AAC and Pac 12 isn't all that large. The gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5 is huge.
You get the big money when people care about watching your games on TV. On a typical football Saturday there are between 4 and 8 games to choose from in most homes. Why would someone want to watch Houston-USF instead of Florida St-Clemson or Auburn-Georgia? A lot of the reason is ranking (which we know is rigged), tradition (which we can't do anything about) or atmosphere (which isn't really there yet either). Will atmosphere get better? That's anyone's guess.

One thing I definitely don't like about AAC games are the high scores by the better teams. It makes it look like Arena football. Real football people want to see good teams with offense and defense.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:43 pm

HoustonWave wrote:
winwave wrote:For the conference to become a P6 it needs to have several years of having at least 3 teams finish in the top 25. Like this year it will require it to win the G5 spot in the Bowl games every year too. In addition it needs those top teams to beef of their OOC schedules so they can really have something to hang their hat on.
Beyond the on-field performance--which is getting close to being what it needs to be. In order to be considered a P6, the AAC will have to show it can put fannies in the seats and generate a strong TV following. The whole P5 thing is primarily about fan support and money. The P5 parasites (conference laggards) are in because of legacy issues--and I'm not sure how long that will last. Eventually, I think the P5 conferences will start to allocate revenue in a manner that will make the P5 parasites start to feel more like G5 programs. Instead of wins, it's really about how much a school spends on its athletic programs--especially football.
Definitely agree. I think if they do what I posted they'll get to that point as far as attendance and ratings.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:44 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
GreenLantern wrote:
winwave wrote:For the conference to become a P6 it needs to have several years of having at least 3 teams finish in the top 25. Like this year it will require it to win the G5 spot in the Bowl games every year too. In addition it needs those top teams to beef of their OOC schedules so they can really have something to hang their hat on.
What a catch-22. G5s are handicapped when it comes to recruiting (in the sense that most highly ranked recruits want to play for P5s) but must compete with P5s if they are ever to be considered as a competitive equal.
Exactly. We're expected to be competitive and be able to beat teams of 4* and 5* players with teams comprised mostly of 3* and 2* players, as well as play a schedule as tough as theirs.
A lot of the teams in the top 25 are mostly getting 3 stars. it's only those very top ranked teams that get mostly 4's and some 5's.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:45 pm

mbawavefan12 wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:
GreenLantern wrote:
winwave wrote:For the conference to become a P6 it needs to have several years of having at least 3 teams finish in the top 25. Like this year it will require it to win the G5 spot in the Bowl games every year too. In addition it needs those top teams to beef of their OOC schedules so they can really have something to hang their hat on.
What a catch-22. G5s are handicapped when it comes to recruiting (in the sense that most highly ranked recruits want to play for P5s) but must compete with P5s if they are ever to be considered as a competitive equal.
Exactly. We're expected to be competitive and be able to beat teams of 4* and 5* players with teams comprised mostly of 3* and 2* players, as well as play a schedule as tough as theirs.
The money gap between the AAC and P5 is just too much. AAC schools were investing like crazy cause most thought they had a shot at a P5 invite, now they find themselves deep in debt with no golden ticket in the forseeable future. Eventually it has to catch up to the league. But alas, there are only so many scholarships out ther and the key is to continue to separate the league from the other non power 5's, the goal of truly catching up to a league that makes $30mm+ more per team is crazy.
Hopefully those investments made will lead to better recruiting and thus the payoff will be achieved.
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DfromCT
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:48 pm

anEngineer wrote:
MicMan wrote:The gap between the AAC and Pac 12 isn't all that large. The gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5 is huge.
You get the big money when people care about watching your games on TV. On a typical football Saturday there are between 4 and 8 games to choose from in most homes. Why would someone want to watch Houston-USF instead of Florida St-Clemson or Auburn-Georgia? A lot of the reason is ranking (which we know is rigged), tradition (which we can't do anything about) or atmosphere (which isn't really there yet either). Will atmosphere get better? That's anyone's guess.

One thing I definitely don't like about AAC games are the high scores by the better teams. It makes it look like Arena football. Real football people want to see good teams with offense and defense.
I'm a real football fan. I probably watch as much or more NFL football than most that post here. I don't watch as many college games because I set my weekends up to be free Sunday afternoons from 1 PM to Midnight. But I watch every Tulane game and probably 1 or 2 others a week.

I cannot disagree more with your take on the high scoring games. The UCF vs. USF game was a better watch than the MNC game this past Monday night. 4 TD's in the last 4 minutes with two lead changes makes for a more exciting game, IMHO than watching one team try to nurse a lead late and lose in the BOGUS overtime format that college football runs. And oh by the way, I didn't see Auburn scoring nearly as much as USF did versus UCF, so UCF CAN play D.

College football is a much more emotional game than the NFL. And when both teams are scoring at will the emotions get higher and higher. Ask a TV executive which game they'd rather televise: a 54-48 thriller or a 13-10 game. I promise you 99% would say the high scoring game (all other factors being equal) does a whole lot better.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

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Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:51 pm

Even the schools like Texas Tech, Cal, Georgia Tech and Illinois have at least a couple of 4 stars in this recruiting class. Over a 5 year period that's going to give you close to a dozen 4-5 stars on each team, while all of G5 has 0. And those are not what I would call elite "very top ranked teams".

Michigan State, Baylor, NC State and Miss St each have four 4 stars. Could be 15-20 four stars on a roster of a middle of the pack P5 program. That's a huge talent different. Its not only the top 8-10 schools that get those players.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:56 pm

Do they get that many 4 stars every year? Do they get any 5 stars every year? Boise proved if you can get mostly three stars you can compete with them.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:58 pm

DfromCT wrote:
anEngineer wrote:
MicMan wrote:The gap between the AAC and Pac 12 isn't all that large. The gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5 is huge.
You get the big money when people care about watching your games on TV. On a typical football Saturday there are between 4 and 8 games to choose from in most homes. Why would someone want to watch Houston-USF instead of Florida St-Clemson or Auburn-Georgia? A lot of the reason is ranking (which we know is rigged), tradition (which we can't do anything about) or atmosphere (which isn't really there yet either). Will atmosphere get better? That's anyone's guess.

One thing I definitely don't like about AAC games are the high scores by the better teams. It makes it look like Arena football. Real football people want to see good teams with offense and defense.
I'm a real football fan. I probably watch as much or more NFL football than most that post here. I don't watch as many college games because I set my weekends up to be free Sunday afternoons from 1 PM to Midnight. But I watch every Tulane game and probably 1 or 2 others a week.

I cannot disagree more with your take on the high scoring games. The UCF vs. USF game was a better watch than the MNC game this past Monday night. 4 TD's in the last 4 minutes with two lead changes makes for a more exciting game, IMHO than watching one team try to nurse a lead late and lose in the BOGUS overtime format that college football runs. And oh by the way, I didn't see Auburn scoring nearly as much as USF did versus UCF, so UCF CAN play D.

College football is a much more emotional game than the NFL. And when both teams are scoring at will the emotions get higher and higher. Ask a TV executive which game they'd rather televise: a 54-48 thriller or a 13-10 game. I promise you 99% would say the high scoring game (all other factors being equal) does a whole lot better.
Yeah, the the networks probably hate those 26-23 double OT games like the National Championship. Why even have a punter if there is a TD every 3 minutes? Just keep going for it on 4th down, if you ever get one. It's Arena ball, like the old CUSA days when every game was 62-58. No big defensive plays, no short yardage stops, just chucking the ball around. You get up to go to the bathroom and you missed 2 scores. The point of this is what makes a P5 and that's not the way they play.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:00 pm

winwave wrote:Do they get that many 4 stars every year? Do they get any 5 stars every year? Boise proved if you can get mostly three stars you can compete with them.
I understand that. Yes they do get several 4 stars every year, so eventually the roster has at least 10-12 minimum. There are only 28 five star players total according to 247, so you almost just consider those another 4 star. And yes, you can compete somewhat. But Boise State didn't do what the P5s are demanding. They didn't play a schedule the like of an SEC or ACC schedule with just a bunch of 3 stars. They played a MWC schedule. The P5s want us to be able to play a P5 schedule with a roster of just 3 stars. You want to know what the result of that is? See Indiana, who has no 4 star recruits this season, or Kansas, who only gets one here or there. They end up at the bottom of the league. If you want another reference, we're being asked to make bricks while collecting our own straw.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:08 pm

anEngineer wrote:
DfromCT wrote:
anEngineer wrote:
MicMan wrote:The gap between the AAC and Pac 12 isn't all that large. The gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5 is huge.
You get the big money when people care about watching your games on TV. On a typical football Saturday there are between 4 and 8 games to choose from in most homes. Why would someone want to watch Houston-USF instead of Florida St-Clemson or Auburn-Georgia? A lot of the reason is ranking (which we know is rigged), tradition (which we can't do anything about) or atmosphere (which isn't really there yet either). Will atmosphere get better? That's anyone's guess.

One thing I definitely don't like about AAC games are the high scores by the better teams. It makes it look like Arena football. Real football people want to see good teams with offense and defense.
I'm a real football fan. I probably watch as much or more NFL football than most that post here. I don't watch as many college games because I set my weekends up to be free Sunday afternoons from 1 PM to Midnight. But I watch every Tulane game and probably 1 or 2 others a week.

I cannot disagree more with your take on the high scoring games. The UCF vs. USF game was a better watch than the MNC game this past Monday night. 4 TD's in the last 4 minutes with two lead changes makes for a more exciting game, IMHO than watching one team try to nurse a lead late and lose in the BOGUS overtime format that college football runs. And oh by the way, I didn't see Auburn scoring nearly as much as USF did versus UCF, so UCF CAN play D.

College football is a much more emotional game than the NFL. And when both teams are scoring at will the emotions get higher and higher. Ask a TV executive which game they'd rather televise: a 54-48 thriller or a 13-10 game. I promise you 99% would say the high scoring game (all other factors being equal) does a whole lot better.
Yeah, the the networks probably hate those 26-23 double OT games like the National Championship. Why even have a punter if there is a TD every 3 minutes? Just keep going for it on 4th down, if you ever get one. It's Arena ball, like the old CUSA days when every game was 62-58. No big defensive plays, no short yardage stops, just chucking the ball around. You get up to go to the bathroom and you missed 2 scores. The point of this is what makes a P5 and that's not the way they play.
No, the point of this is how to build viewers, and get into a P5. Many P5 teams have high scoring games against their rivals. Scoring is more attractive to viewers than D, and if you watch some high scoring games, you'll see that most have a key defensive series a few times a game. Nobody comes to watch the punt team.

YOU like low scoring games. I'm saying you're in the minority, and do not represent the general football fan. I'm not saying every game needs to feature 80+ points, but if you WATCHED the USF vs. UCF game, and thought the MNC game was more exciting, I DO NOT WANT what you're smoking or taking. It must be a depressant. Was the MNC a good game? Hell yes. But the USF vs. UCF game was absolutely electric. I strongly suspect that you didn't watch that game, and simply said "bah humbug" after seeing the final score. Certainly claiming that high scoring games brands the conference as not ready for Prime Time, is an absolute ludicrous conclusion.

And even after watching the MNC game a second time, I missed the second overtime. As I remember Ga scored a long FG in OT and 'Bama followed with a TD to end the game. Both teams had one possession, game over. It must have been more exciting because you saw TWO overtimes!
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:22 pm

I will add this 5 minute analysis as well: ESPN listed the top NCAA 20 games of 2017. Yes, 4 were under 50 points. 4 Were 51-60 points. 2 Were 61-70 points. 1 was 71-80 points and SEVEN (7) of the 20 were over 80 points.

The one game in the 70's happened to be a pretty B1G rivalry: Ohio State 39, Penn State 38. 4 of the 7 80+ point games were by P5 rivals: the PAC 12 had two and the SEC and Big 12 each had one.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/st ... all-season
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:30 pm

DfromCT wrote:
anEngineer wrote:
MicMan wrote:The gap between the AAC and Pac 12 isn't all that large. The gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5 is huge.
You get the big money when people care about watching your games on TV. On a typical football Saturday there are between 4 and 8 games to choose from in most homes. Why would someone want to watch Houston-USF instead of Florida St-Clemson or Auburn-Georgia? A lot of the reason is ranking (which we know is rigged), tradition (which we can't do anything about) or atmosphere (which isn't really there yet either). Will atmosphere get better? That's anyone's guess.

One thing I definitely don't like about AAC games are the high scores by the better teams. It makes it look like Arena football. Real football people want to see good teams with offense and defense.
I'm a real football fan. I probably watch as much or more NFL football than most that post here. I don't watch as many college games because I set my weekends up to be free Sunday afternoons from 1 PM to Midnight. But I watch every Tulane game and probably 1 or 2 others a week.

I cannot disagree more with your take on the high scoring games. The UCF vs. USF game was a better watch than the MNC game this past Monday night. 4 TD's in the last 4 minutes with two lead changes makes for a more exciting game, IMHO than watching one team try to nurse a lead late and lose in the BOGUS overtime format that college football runs. And oh by the way, I didn't see Auburn scoring nearly as much as USF did versus UCF, so UCF CAN play D.

College football is a much more emotional game than the NFL. And when both teams are scoring at will the emotions get higher and higher. Ask a TV executive which game they'd rather televise: a 54-48 thriller or a 13-10 game. I promise you 99% would say the high scoring game (all other factors being equal) does a whole lot better.
In the NCAA high scoring games are generally the result of inferior talent on both sides of the ball. It is easy to out-scheme a crummy defense even with a marginally talented offense. If you insert three gifted cover zero DB's and a handful of disruptive fellows up front the offensive scheme will fail (FIU).
The NFL rules have been so skewed to favor offensive production it is a sad joke. Remember Lester Hayes, Ronnie Lott & Andre Waters? You'll never see the likes of them again. We've got to keep the slack jaws happy: Scoring Good! Not Scoring Bad!
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:44 pm

not sure why the Big 12 needs expansion...the NCAA caved and gave them a championship game...split the money 10 ways...while I do think they need a "link' to WVU, I don't think they are losing sleep over it
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:02 pm

golfnut69 wrote:not sure why the Big 12 needs expansion...the NCAA caved and gave them a championship game...split the money 10 ways...while I do think they need a "link' to WVU, I don't think they are losing sleep over it
Well, the Big 12’s only real issue is recruiting in that they could really benefit from expanding their recruiting grounds. While it’s true that the Big 12 has 6 of the top 2018 classes, they could benefit from adding new areas that have more elite recruits (Ohio, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania) in order to give the top programs more top players and to build better depth in the middle/bottom of the conference.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:37 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
winwave wrote:Do they get that many 4 stars every year? Do they get any 5 stars every year? Boise proved if you can get mostly three stars you can compete with them.
I understand that. Yes they do get several 4 stars every year, so eventually the roster has at least 10-12 minimum. There are only 28 five star players total according to 247, so you almost just consider those another 4 star. And yes, you can compete somewhat. But Boise State didn't do what the P5s are demanding. They didn't play a schedule the like of an SEC or ACC schedule with just a bunch of 3 stars. They played a MWC schedule. The P5s want us to be able to play a P5 schedule with a roster of just 3 stars. You want to know what the result of that is? See Indiana, who has no 4 star recruits this season, or Kansas, who only gets one here or there. They end up at the bottom of the league. If you want another reference, we're being asked to make bricks while collecting our own straw.
I'm not intimidated by the many teams who may have a dozen 4 stars. If you have a team full of 3 stars who are well coached and given good schemes they can compete. That's why our AAC schools are spending to improve facilities to reach that point rather than just throwing in the towel.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:35 pm

tpstulane wrote:
lurker123 wrote:The one unstated advantage that Tulane has over every other potential candidate for Big 12 is its ability to put dent in LSU recruiting if it is "elevated" in status. OK and UT want to win national championships in football. Helping someone/anyone diminish a nearby competitor that has a lock on top recruits from a top recruiting state like Louisiana might appeal to OU/UT as a tie breaker.

Obviously all the other things (on field success, facilities, fan support, TV ratings, etc.) must come first but UC or UConn or BYU won't help OU or UT improve the odds to win the BCS championship.

All moot though. Nothing will happen until 2020 or so unless litigation/govt regulation breaks up the BCS cartel before then and that's even a longer shot then Tulane joining the Big 12.

I do agree with consensus here. Better route (but still very hard) is to build the AAC into P6.
Good points, Texas A&M is making noise in these parts with recruiting. (Speedy Noil) for one since they got the SEC invite....
A&M is a middle of the pack SEC team. They aren’t hurting LSU but LSU appears to be killing themselves with the hires they’ve been making. :)
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:37 pm

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
golfnut69 wrote:not sure why the Big 12 needs expansion...the NCAA caved and gave them a championship game...split the money 10 ways...while I do think they need a "link' to WVU, I don't think they are losing sleep over it
Well, the Big 12’s only real issue is recruiting in that they could really benefit from expanding their recruiting grounds. While it’s true that the Big 12 has 6 of the top 2018 classes, they could benefit from adding new areas that have more elite recruits (Ohio, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania) in order to give the top programs more top players and to build better depth in the middle/bottom of the conference.
expansion will occur for TV markets/ media money, recruiting is not at the forefront of expansion discussions...
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:43 pm

Very simple. There will never be a P6 conference. The P5s will never agree to share revenue with a 6th conference. There might be a handful of G5 schools get assumed into a P5 conference if the money makes sense to a particular conference such as Florida schools in AAC moving into Big 12. But that will be the extent of it.
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Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:14 pm

Jaxwave wrote:Very simple. There will never be a P6 conference. The P5s will never agree to share revenue with a 6th conference. There might be a handful of G5 schools get assumed into a P5 conference if the money makes sense to a particular conference such as Florida schools in AAC moving into Big 12. But that will be the extent of it.
I could easily see the ACC adding UConn and Tulane or another quality academic institution. But we'd have to have Football and Basketball win and win regularly for the years between now and when the "Big Bang" happens. That's when all the "Power Conferences" go to 16 members (and hopefully there's still 5 "Power Conferences" in the aftermath) and the official split between the P5 and everyone else creates three D1 levels.

As I've said repeatedly for years, Cowen misreading the tea leaves in the wake of the 1998 season has cost this University a few hundred million dollars, and untold how many more going forward. We were in better position than TCU to get into a P6 conference at the time, and he pissed it away.

In the next 5-10 years there will be a big split. Dannen, Fritz and Dunleavy could be heros if we get into the "haves" rather than the remain with the "have nots" we keep company with now.
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Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:49 am

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
golfnut69 wrote:not sure why the Big 12 needs expansion...the NCAA caved and gave them a championship game...split the money 10 ways...while I do think they need a "link' to WVU, I don't think they are losing sleep over it
Well, the Big 12’s only real issue is recruiting in that they could really benefit from expanding their recruiting grounds. While it’s true that the Big 12 has 6 of the top 2018 classes, they could benefit from adding new areas that have more elite recruits (Ohio, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania) in order to give the top programs more top players and to build better depth in the middle/bottom of the conference.
The Big 12 has recruiting issues...please list them, and I will forward them directly to the Big 12 office for immediate consideration of expansion...last I looked Ohio State and LSU are coming to Texas for recruits...I just checked LSU's early signings...3 from Texas...3 from Mississippi...1 from Alabama and ! from New York...if Louisiana has such great talent, why all of the imports ?
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Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:20 am

Becausa Alabama beats them out for all the good recruits here. :mrgreen:
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Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:24 am

golfnut69 wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
golfnut69 wrote:not sure why the Big 12 needs expansion...the NCAA caved and gave them a championship game...split the money 10 ways...while I do think they need a "link' to WVU, I don't think they are losing sleep over it
Well, the Big 12’s only real issue is recruiting in that they could really benefit from expanding their recruiting grounds. While it’s true that the Big 12 has 6 of the top 2018 classes, they could benefit from adding new areas that have more elite recruits (Ohio, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania) in order to give the top programs more top players and to build better depth in the middle/bottom of the conference.
The Big 12 has recruiting issues...please list them, and I will forward them directly to the Big 12 office for immediate consideration of expansion...last I looked Ohio State and LSU are coming to Texas for recruits...I just checked LSU's early signings...3 from Texas...3 from Mississippi...1 from Alabama and ! from New York...if Louisiana has such great talent, why all of the imports ?
Louisiana has great talent, and PER CAPITA it's one of the top states in the country. The problem is the population is only 4.5 million, and when you compare it to Florida, Texas and California, which are in the same PER CAPITA range as far as 3, 4 and 5 star recruits, those states have at least 4 to 8 times as many inhabitants. So while the talent is strong in the fine state of Louisiana, those three states could each field 4 or more all star teams that are equally as talented as the top one from Louisiana.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

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