Comparing Recruiting Among Tulane/UCF/ECU/Memphis (new AAC coaches)

[Aberzombie1892]

Tulane, East Carolina, UCF and Memphis each added a new head coach in the offseason, so keeping tabs on how the other three programs are doing should be an interesting case study for the four programs, especially since only our coach has been a head coach before (and a successful one at that). So far, none of the programs have any commits rated above 3*.

As of 6/23/16:

UCF = 11 commits, 9 of them are 3* = #2 in AAC and #40 Nationally
ECU = 12 commits, 9 of them are 3* = #5 in AAC and #55 Nationally
Memphis = 11 commits, 9 of them are 3* = #3 in AAC and #44 Nationally
Tulane = 7 commits, 3 of them are 3* = #9 or #10 in AAC and somewhere in the #80s Nationally (uncertainty due to missing commits on 247)

All commit data is taken from 247 aside from Tulane's, which is taken from 247 + Nola/Advocate articles that list athletes as being committed that are not listed as commits on 247.

EDIT: Personally, I think it's actually shocking that UCF/ECU/Memphis each have managed to put together pretty good classes under their new, first time coaches this early in the process, and I'm just hoping that we do better than 50/50 2*/3* because a class of that caliber isn't better than CJs last two classes.

[DfromCT]

The fact that the coaches are first time coaches is offset by the fact that each school has been much more successful of late than we have. UCF went winless last year, but are two or three years removed from a nice run, including a BCS Bowl victory. ECU was foolish to fire their coach, and has been very competitive for a long time. Memphis was one of the faces of the AAC throughout the season last year. We've sucked for a number of years in a row, and perception changes when we start winning regularly.

It isn't easy to get rid of the stench left behind. The comparison we all care about is W-L records at the end of the day. If we win, we'll start getting better recruits.

[Aberzombie1892]

I agree that it's not necessarily apples to applies given that those programs are generally considered to be more successful than ours, but it still an interesting snapshot of landscape within the AAC in regard to recruiting, especially for the new coaches. Personally, I'll just be happy if we beat 50/50 2*/3* - even if we would still be in the bottom 1/4 of the AAC in recruiting - since it would still be a step up from our last few classes.

[jonathanjoseph]

The fact that the coaches are first time coaches is offset by the fact that each school has been much more successful of late than we have. UCF went winless last year, but are two or three years removed from a nice run, including a BCS Bowl victory. ECU was foolish to fire their coach, and has been very competitive for a long time. Memphis was one of the faces of the AAC throughout the season last year. We've sucked for a number of years in a row, and perception changes when we start winning regularly.

It isn't easy to get rid of the stench left behind. The comparison we all care about is W-L records at the end of the day. If we win, we'll start getting better recruits.

And again, it cuts both ways. UCF was only bad for 1 year, but Memphis was every bit as bad as Tulane until 2 years ago. So either perception can change in a year or two, or it can't.

As bad as the perception of Tulane's program might be, it does not explain the current perceived slide in recruiting. The perception was equally bad at the end of the Bob Toledo era. The open question that needs to be asked is whether Yulman stadium explains the current slide.

[GreenPuddleSplash]

I'm still set on my bet that this 2017 class will be better than CJ's last two. (If the 17 class is not better than the last 2 CJ classes, I will make a small donation to TAF in honor of GoTula, maybe something like a GoTula brick? hopefully it's a win-win.)

[mbawavefan12]

The fact that the coaches are first time coaches is offset by the fact that each school has been much more successful of late than we have. UCF went winless last year, but are two or three years removed from a nice run, including a BCS Bowl victory. ECU was foolish to fire their coach, and has been very competitive for a long time. Memphis was one of the faces of the AAC throughout the season last year. We've sucked for a number of years in a row, and perception changes when we start winning regularly.

It isn't easy to get rid of the stench left behind. The comparison we all care about is W-L records at the end of the day. If we win, we'll start getting better recruits.

And again, it cuts both ways. UCF was only bad for 1 year, but Memphis was every bit as bad as Tulane until 2 years ago. So either perception can change in a year or two, or it can't.

As bad as the perception of Tulane's program might be, it does not explain the current perceived slide in recruiting. The perception was equally bad at the end of the Bob Toledo era. The open question that needs to be asked is whether Yulman stadium explains the current slide.

Yulman isn't the issue. It looks as nice as the other schools stadiums. The saints facility also competes. Its the weight room, locker room and meeting rooms, that's what is putting us behind. The other issue is academic entry.

[Aberzombie1892]

Well, I think it's too soon to decide whether there has been a decline in recruiting, as we will need around 15 commits before we can start making definitive conclusions about the 2017 class, but I think the real issue here is that some expected an -instant- uptick in recruiting because of the Fritz hire - regardless as to how nice our stadium/workout facilities are or how bad our record was under CJ - and, given our 2017 class so far, it's clear that we have yet to see any sort of uptick. While that doesn't mean that we won't see one later, it does mean that there was no instant boost in recruiting.

[nawlinspete]

I'm still set on my bet that this 2017 class will be better than CJ's last two. (If the 17 class is not better than the last 2 CJ classes, I will make a small donation to TAF in honor of GoTula, maybe something like a GoTula brick? hopefully it's a win-win.)

Being better than the last two classes of the worst FB coach in our 124 year football history is not an accomplishment. So far it appears that other AAC coaches are flat out out recruiting us. Period. Years of indifference topped off by the stupidity from the B of A, the president and the AD desperately trying to downgrade us in any way possible topped off by their parting shackles: a joke of a stadium that screams small time, we don't care and we are not serious about FB. Perception cannot be overcome by Commander's Palace dining.

[TXWave88]

Well, I think it's too soon to decide whether there has been a decline in recruiting, as we will need around 15 commits before we can start making definitive conclusions about the 2017 class, but I think the real issue here is that some expected an -instant- uptick in recruiting because of the Fritz hire - regardless as to how nice our stadium/workout facilities are or how bad our record was under CJ - and, given our 2017 class so far, it's clear that we have yet to see any sort of uptick. While that doesn't mean that we won't see one later, it does mean that there was no instant boost in recruiting.

We are 4 to 5 commits behind those schools. That may be a sign, but if we get 4 commits and are all 3 stars or higher (which I hope), then we will not be so far behind. Most of the AAC schools recruiting classes consists of 75% or higher 3 Star commits. We are less than 50%. If we continue this, we will be near or most likely at the bottom in AAC. We will probably have a large recruiting class if we have only have 79 of the 85 scholarships filled this year. That means we have at least 18 more recruits to fill out this class. Still a bit early to jump off the bridge but the trend is concerning. I think Fritz will not disappoint though.

[jonathanjoseph]

The fact that the coaches are first time coaches is offset by the fact that each school has been much more successful of late than we have. UCF went winless last year, but are two or three years removed from a nice run, including a BCS Bowl victory. ECU was foolish to fire their coach, and has been very competitive for a long time. Memphis was one of the faces of the AAC throughout the season last year. We've sucked for a number of years in a row, and perception changes when we start winning regularly.

It isn't easy to get rid of the stench left behind. The comparison we all care about is W-L records at the end of the day. If we win, we'll start getting better recruits.

And again, it cuts both ways. UCF was only bad for 1 year, but Memphis was every bit as bad as Tulane until 2 years ago. So either perception can change in a year or two, or it can't.

As bad as the perception of Tulane's program might be, it does not explain the current perceived slide in recruiting. The perception was equally bad at the end of the Bob Toledo era. The open question that needs to be asked is whether Yulman stadium explains the current slide.

Yulman isn't the issue. It looks as nice as the other schools stadiums. The saints facility also competes. Its the weight room, locker room and meeting rooms, that's what is putting us behind. The other issue is academic entry.

Well academic entry didn't seem to be an issue for CJ, so that doesn't seem right. I don't know enough to know whether Yulman is or isn't the issue, but I know that it might be. It's literally <1/2 the size of the stadiums at ECU, Memphis and UCF.

If this class fills out similarly to what we have so far, we'd be able to say that recruiting classes are clearly trending down since Yulman opened. I'm not suggesting there's a correlation there yet, just noting.

[nawlinspete]

The fact that the coaches are first time coaches is offset by the fact that each school has been much more successful of late than we have. UCF went winless last year, but are two or three years removed from a nice run, including a BCS Bowl victory. ECU was foolish to fire their coach, and has been very competitive for a long time. Memphis was one of the faces of the AAC throughout the season last year. We've sucked for a number of years in a row, and perception changes when we start winning regularly.

It isn't easy to get rid of the stench left behind. The comparison we all care about is W-L records at the end of the day. If we win, we'll start getting better recruits.

And again, it cuts both ways. UCF was only bad for 1 year, but Memphis was every bit as bad as Tulane until 2 years ago. So either perception can change in a year or two, or it can't.

As bad as the perception of Tulane's program might be, it does not explain the current perceived slide in recruiting. The perception was equally bad at the end of the Bob Toledo era. The open question that needs to be asked is whether Yulman stadium explains the current slide.

Yulman isn't the issue. It looks as nice as the other schools stadiums. The saints facility also competes. Its the weight room, locker room and meeting rooms, that's what is putting us behind. The other issue is academic entry.

Well academic entry didn't seem to be an issue for CJ, so that doesn't seem right. I don't know enough to know whether Yulman is or isn't the issue, but I know that it might be. It's literally <1/2 the size of the stadiums at ECU, Memphis and UCF.

If this class fills out similarly to what we have so far, we'd be able to say that recruiting classes are clearly trending down since Yulman opened. I'm not suggesting there's a correlation there yet, just noting.

Well, you certainly are suggesting that CowDick is damning us severely, as I and others also are suggesting. Our AD needs to clarify our strategy and announce a return to the MBSD and the repurposing of CowDick to IPF and basketball.

[jonathanjoseph]

The fact that the coaches are first time coaches is offset by the fact that each school has been much more successful of late than we have. UCF went winless last year, but are two or three years removed from a nice run, including a BCS Bowl victory. ECU was foolish to fire their coach, and has been very competitive for a long time. Memphis was one of the faces of the AAC throughout the season last year. We've sucked for a number of years in a row, and perception changes when we start winning regularly.

It isn't easy to get rid of the stench left behind. The comparison we all care about is W-L records at the end of the day. If we win, we'll start getting better recruits.

And again, it cuts both ways. UCF was only bad for 1 year, but Memphis was every bit as bad as Tulane until 2 years ago. So either perception can change in a year or two, or it can't.

As bad as the perception of Tulane's program might be, it does not explain the current perceived slide in recruiting. The perception was equally bad at the end of the Bob Toledo era. The open question that needs to be asked is whether Yulman stadium explains the current slide.

Yulman isn't the issue. It looks as nice as the other schools stadiums. The saints facility also competes. Its the weight room, locker room and meeting rooms, that's what is putting us behind. The other issue is academic entry.

Well academic entry didn't seem to be an issue for CJ, so that doesn't seem right. I don't know enough to know whether Yulman is or isn't the issue, but I know that it might be. It's literally <1/2 the size of the stadiums at ECU, Memphis and UCF.

If this class fills out similarly to what we have so far, we'd be able to say that recruiting classes are clearly trending down since Yulman opened. I'm not suggesting there's a correlation there yet, just noting.

Well, you certainly are suggesting that CowDick is damning us severely, as I and others also are suggesting. Our AD needs to clarify our strategy and announce a return to the MBSD and the repurposing of CowDick to IPF and basketball.

Well I did predict as much 5+ years ago, but I'm not drawing any such conclusions yet.

If it does turn out that Yulman is hurting recruiting than it would join only leaving the SEC on the scale of epic disasters.

[GreenPuddleSplash]

I'm still set on my bet that this 2017 class will be better than CJ's last two. (If the 17 class is not better than the last 2 CJ classes, I will make a small donation to TAF in honor of GoTula, maybe something like a GoTula brick? hopefully it's a win-win.)

Being better than the last two classes of the worst FB coach in our 124 year football history is not an accomplishment. So far it appears that other AAC coaches are flat out out recruiting us. Period. Years of indifference topped off by the stupidity from the B of A, the president and the AD desperately trying to downgrade us in any way possible topped off by their parting shackles: a joke of a stadium that screams small time, we don't care and we are not serious about FB. Perception cannot be overcome by Commander's Palace dining.

Where you and I differ JJ is that you have a longer experience of witnessing almost futile football and I totally understand where you're coming from. The only winning season that I've watched TU was our trip to the New Orleans Bowl with CJ. I agree that had we planned and took our time planning, we probably wouldn't be in this hot mess with a fledgling football program. However, I think we are finally headed in the right direction. Maybe you've seen this trend in the past with previous TU admins, and have reason to doubt now, but I don't so I will remain an optimist for WF and the new TU admin.

[DfromCT]

Well, you certainly are suggesting that CowDick is damning us severely, as I and others also are suggesting. Our AD needs to clarify our strategy and announce a return to the MBSD and the repurposing of CowDick to IPF and basketball.

That might happen. And the pigs might learn to fly, too. Or maybe, somehow, Yulman will turn into the Sugar Processing Plant that was there over 100 years ago by divine intervention overnight one night this summer. Yeah, that's it.

Back on ignore for Pete.

[jonathanjoseph]

I'm still set on my bet that this 2017 class will be better than CJ's last two. (If the 17 class is not better than the last 2 CJ classes, I will make a small donation to TAF in honor of GoTula, maybe something like a GoTula brick? hopefully it's a win-win.)

Being better than the last two classes of the worst FB coach in our 124 year football history is not an accomplishment. So far it appears that other AAC coaches are flat out out recruiting us. Period. Years of indifference topped off by the stupidity from the B of A, the president and the AD desperately trying to downgrade us in any way possible topped off by their parting shackles: a joke of a stadium that screams small time, we don't care and we are not serious about FB. Perception cannot be overcome by Commander's Palace dining.

Where you and I differ JJ is that you have a longer experience of witnessing almost futile football and I totally understand where you're coming from. The only winning season that I've watched TU was our trip to the New Orleans Bowl with CJ. I agree that had we planned and took our time planning, we probably wouldn't be in this hot mess with a fledgling football program. However, I think we are finally headed in the right direction. Maybe you've seen this trend in the past with previous TU admins, and have reason to doubt now, but I don't so I will remain an optimist for WF and the new TU admin.

Well that wasn't me, but "finally headed in the right direction" is a clear indictment of Cowen/Dickson. This was their intended finished product, not a fledgling program. This was supposed to be the payoff of the $100M facility.

[Aberzombie1892]

UPDATED: 247 has been updated to include all 7 of our commits, but it looks like two of them, Evan Reese and Jaetavian Toles, have yet to be rated by any of the big 4 recruiting sites, and out of our remaining 5 commits, Dane Ledford, Darius Campbell, CJ Sturdivant and Caleb Sampson are the ones that have been rated by more than one site even though the 247 Composite does not reflect the multiple ratings by Caleb and Darius.

Caleb Sampson: 247 (3*), Rivals (2*), Scout (2*) and ESPN (Not Rated) = he will likely ultimately be a 2* on the 247 Composite even he is currently listed as a 3* on the Composite since the Composite is not taking into account his Rivals and Scout ratings yet.
Darius Campbell: 247 (3*), Rivals (2*), Scout (Not Rated) and ESPN (Not Rated) = It's unclear whether he will be either a 2* or 3* on the 247 Composite since he has two ratings that conflict.
Dane Ledford: 247 (2*), Rivals (Not Rated), Scout (2*) and ESPN (Not Rated) = he will likely ultimately be a 2* on the 247 Composite.
CJ Sturdivant: 247 (2*), Rivals (Not Rated), Scout (2*), and ESPN (not Rated) = he will likely ultimately be a 2* on the 247 Composite.

It's important to at least acknowledge this, since two of our three players that are currently designated as 3*s on the 247 Composite could easily fall to 2*s - Caleb (for certain) and Darius - and that would likely drop our class from #87 to somewhere in the 90s to 100s.

EDIT: Also, as an update for our rivals:

UCF: 14 Commits, 11 3*s = #2 in the AAC and #37 Nationally*
Memphis: 13 Commits, 10 3*s = #3 in the AAC and #42 Nationally*
ECU: 13 Commits, 9 3*s = #4 in the AAC and #58 Nationally*
Tulane: 7 Commits, 3 3*s = #10 in the AAC and #87 Nationally*

*Yes, I realize that some commits have not been rated or haven't had their 247 Composite updated yet, but this is just a snapshot of an apples to apples comparison without making any adjustments.

EDIT2: Our class is currently rated above USF and UConn, but, as anyone who is familiar with recruiting classes will tell you, we will -not- have a better recruiting class than USF.

[Aberzombie1892]

I hope everyone had a great (and safe) July 4th. So, it's time for a recruiting update.

Tulane - 8 commits (2 Not yet rated) and 3 3*s - #89 in the Nation and #10 in the AAC
UCF - 14 commits (0 Not yet rated) and 11 3*s - #38 in the Nation and #2 in the AAC
Memphis - 16 commits (0 Not yet rated) and 13 3*s - #39 in the Nation and #3 in the AAC
East Carolina - 13 commits (1 Not yet rated) and 9 3*s - #61 in the Nation and #5 in the AAC

Since we have teams ranked 2, 3, and 5, I'm going to include 4 even though it's not exactly relevant here since Temple doesn't have a new coach.
Temple - 14 commits (1 Not yet rated) and 10 3*s - #55 in the Nation and #4 in the AAC

It looks like not much has changed on the Tulane front since the last update, which is fine as there is plenty of time before national signing day. UCF and Memphis seem to be putting together some pretty decent classes given that UCF didn't win a single game last year and given that both programs are replacing their coaches, while East Carolina seems to be recruiting pretty much par for East Carolina. Temple's recruiting seems to be on the same pace as the '16 class, which is good since the '16 class was the best class that they have had in awhile. All that being said, recruiting in the AAC in general seems to be getting pretty good, as the #6 ranked class in the AAC is currently ranked #64.

[mbawavefan12]

Between the losing, support assets and recruits being weary of the system WF will run, I am not surprised by this result. We have to hope that the system and coaching can overcome the talent disparity, get us back on our feet then the recruiting will improve with victories. It sucks but CJ/RD/SC left us in bad shape at one of the most important times in the history of TU athletics. But TD is doing the best he can with what he has to work with, that (and working to upgrade facilities/budgets) is all you can ask right now.

[Aberzombie1892]

I agree - I'm confident that Fritz can win some games with lower profile recruits, so I don't think that our recruiting situation is a huge deal at this time. However, I really hope that we can snag some better recruits at some point because I really want us to be able to avoid offering a bunch of FCS caliber recruits in January just to fill our roster.

[GreenPuddleSplash]

I agree - I'm confident that Fritz can win some games with lower profile recruits, so I don't think that our recruiting situation is a huge deal at this time. However, I really hope that we can snag some better recruits at some point because I really want us to be able to avoid offering a bunch of FCS caliber recruits in January just to fill our roster.

This 100%. I am with you 100%. Give the man some time to work, especially with his first real cycle.

It still seems like we have a mystery on how big our class is going to be. We have lost lots of scholarship players with a new regime change, so I am still curious how big of class we are expecting.

[Aberzombie1892]

Time for another update - as of 10:57am CDT today:

Memphis - 17 Total Commits/13 3*/0 Unrated - #2 in AAC/#46 Nationally
UCF - 15 Total Commits/12 3*/0 Unrated - #3 in the AAC/#47 Nationally
ECU - 13 Total Commits/9 3*/1 Unrated - #6 in the AAC/#64 Nationally
Tulane - 10 Total Commits/3 3*/3 Unrated - #10 in the AAC/#91 Nationally

There is nothing really new to comment on. We added a commit or two since the last update, but, at least at the moment, those commits did not really impact our class ranking. Of the 155 teams with their classes ranked on the 247 composite, on 3 teams are ranked lower than ours that have 10 or more commitments: Georgia State, Troy, and Air Force.

Side note - All of the AAC teams are majority 3* commits aside from Navy/SMU/Tulane/UConn and USF. SMU is 50% 3* and Navy has the lowest percentage of 3*s.

[lurker123]

Obviously talent matters. I'd rather Fritz was starting from a higher published base.

However most if not all of the commitments have attended Tulane camps. That means everyone of these was evaluated in person by multiple coaches. These offers are not merely based on reviewing game tapes and HS coach recommendations and perhaps one Tulane coach seeing the player live for a game or two.

In each of these players, the Tulane coaches must have seen something that says we can turn this boy into a man who can succeed at FBS level. No guarantees though.

WF is a winner with a demonstrably winning system proven at multiple schools and times. In its own way, it is a similar approach to Navy's whose published recruiting is nothing to brag about either.

We simply have to trust him on recruiting. I don't think it's delusional to do so but it's fair to say that say the OSU road game in three years will tell us a lot.

[winwave]

Well said lurker.

[Aberzombie1892]

Lurker, just like any other program, if we need a player to fill a particular position, we offer the best players that we could reasonably get that play that position, but, if we can't get them, we slowly work our way down the list with offers until someone commits. To phrase it differently, if we need a dual threat QB, we are going to keep offering dual threat QBs until one commits because we -need- a dual threat QB even if it is not the one of the top X that we want - it's really no different than what happened with Lindsay Scott and his replacement at the beginning of this year. Through that lens, it's difficult to accept that the fact that an offer is given means that the player that received that offer is automatically a desirable choice even if they came to our camp, especially in light of our difficulties in recruiting - losing battles to ULL, FAU (multiple), Kansas (multiple), Vanderbilt (multiple), ULM (multiple), Texas State, Georgia State, Appalachian State (multiple), and (fill in the blank school).

[lurker123]

Sorry. Duplicate.