Post season analysis

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DfromCT
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Ruski wrote: On the other hand we were 17 points away from ending up 2-9. That "good loss" to Navy ended up being a "pretty ok loss". That huge corner turning win over Tulsa led us running head first into a brick wall. We lost to an alright FIU team and a terrible Cincy team. It took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than a FCS team.
When you say it took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than an FCS team, I assume you're talking about ECU's loss to an FCS team? That FCS team is defending national champion James Madison, who would be double digit favorites over Tulane. I'd lay the points, too. Their coach will likely get P5 offers. They also hosted ESPN College Gameday for the second time in two seasons this year.

Folks need to learn a bit more about FCS programs. The top 5 would have very very good records playing the bottom half of FBS. Heck, North Dakota State beat a top 20 Iowa team a year or two ago. Michigan, LSU, Arizona and many other traditionally strong programs have lost to FCS teams in the past 10 years or so. And the FCS playoffs are way more legit than the FBS playoff.


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Let Ruse go to Statesboro. We will pickup Debesse as OC and a co-dc in Lionel Washington. We need to hire the D-line coach from University of Rhode Island, Joe Coniglio ASAP!
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Jaxwave wrote:Just heard some concerning news. A family member married into a family from Statesboro, Ga. home to Ga. Southern. As you may know they fired their coach and are now looking. The family members are close to the athletic program and say they don't know whether Ga. Southern will go this way, but a number of the Tulane coaches have expressed an interest in returning there under the Tulane OC, if he gets the job. Word from them is the Tulane assistants are not happy based on the fact that they have to live so far (an hour) from campus to get into family friendly neighborhoods commensurate with their pay, based on the cost of living in the city, along with the academic challenges in recruiting at Tulane. You can imagine both of those would be major adjustments for coaches moving from a rural community and a school like G Southern.

Now I don't know if it's true or that we even care to lose some of them, but if salaries for assistant coaches is an issue, it would be another indication of the lack of commitment of the administration.
Did you realize before posting this gossip that Georgia Southern introduced their head coach on Monday...a full day before you posted this?
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It wasn't Ruse.
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Jaxwave wrote:Just heard some concerning news. A family member married into a family from Statesboro, Ga. home to Ga. Southern. As you may know they fired their coach and are now looking. The family members are close to the athletic program and say they don't know whether Ga. Southern will go this way, but a number of the Tulane coaches have expressed an interest in returning there under the Tulane OC, if he gets the job. Word from them is the Tulane assistants are not happy based on the fact that they have to live so far (an hour) from campus to get into family friendly neighborhoods commensurate with their pay, based on the cost of living in the city, along with the academic challenges in recruiting at Tulane. You can imagine both of those would be major adjustments for coaches moving from a rural community and a school like G Southern.

Now I don't know if it's true or that we even care to lose some of them, but if salaries for assistant coaches is an issue, it would be another indication of the lack of commitment of the administration.
The way I read this is, they make really good money and want to live in a neighborhood "commensurate with their pay", but there aren't any close to campus that are "family-friendly". I can understand not wanting to live in Garden Dist or Uptown with kids, but English Turn, Ormond, Old Metairie, and Beau Chene would all fit that criteria and none are an hour away. I live in Ormond and can get to campus in 35 minutes.
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austxwave wrote:
Jaxwave wrote:Just heard some concerning news. A family member married into a family from Statesboro, Ga. home to Ga. Southern. As you may know they fired their coach and are now looking. The family members are close to the athletic program and say they don't know whether Ga. Southern will go this way, but a number of the Tulane coaches have expressed an interest in returning there under the Tulane OC, if he gets the job. Word from them is the Tulane assistants are not happy based on the fact that they have to live so far (an hour) from campus to get into family friendly neighborhoods commensurate with their pay, based on the cost of living in the city, along with the academic challenges in recruiting at Tulane. You can imagine both of those would be major adjustments for coaches moving from a rural community and a school like G Southern.

Now I don't know if it's true or that we even care to lose some of them, but if salaries for assistant coaches is an issue, it would be another indication of the lack of commitment of the administration.
Did you realize before posting this gossip that Georgia Southern introduced their head coach on Monday...a full day before you posted this?
The relevance of my post was to pass on thoughts about our assistants and their feelings. I even pointed out that the contact said Ga. Southern might go in another direction. I also made no judgement as to whether losing any coaches aS a good thing or bad. The main point was evidently some assistant coaches are not happy with their pay or the recruiting restrictions.
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The recruiting restrictions, maybe. If they're unhappy with their pay, I doubt they'd be looking to go back to GaSo.
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DfromCT wrote:
Ruski wrote: On the other hand we were 17 points away from ending up 2-9. That "good loss" to Navy ended up being a "pretty ok loss". That huge corner turning win over Tulsa led us running head first into a brick wall. We lost to an alright FIU team and a terrible Cincy team. It took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than a FCS team.
When you say it took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than an FCS team, I assume you're talking about ECU's loss to an FCS team? That FCS team is defending national champion James Madison, who would be double digit favorites over Tulane. I'd lay the points, too. Their coach will likely get P5 offers. They also hosted ESPN College Gameday for the second time in two seasons this year.

Folks need to learn a bit more about FCS programs. The top 5 would have very very good records playing the bottom half of FBS. Heck, North Dakota State beat a top 20 Iowa team a year or two ago. Michigan, LSU, Arizona and many other traditionally strong programs have lost to FCS teams in the past 10 years or so. And the FCS playoffs are way more legit than the FBS playoff.
But you're kind of making my point. A very good FCS team is probably about as good at the 50 percentile FBS. So we were in the bottom half. That's pretty bad.
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Ruski wrote:
DfromCT wrote:
Ruski wrote: On the other hand we were 17 points away from ending up 2-9. That "good loss" to Navy ended up being a "pretty ok loss". That huge corner turning win over Tulsa led us running head first into a brick wall. We lost to an alright FIU team and a terrible Cincy team. It took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than a FCS team.
When you say it took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than an FCS team, I assume you're talking about ECU's loss to an FCS team? That FCS team is defending national champion James Madison, who would be double digit favorites over Tulane. I'd lay the points, too. Their coach will likely get P5 offers. They also hosted ESPN College Gameday for the second time in two seasons this year.

Folks need to learn a bit more about FCS programs. The top 5 would have very very good records playing the bottom half of FBS. Heck, North Dakota State beat a top 20 Iowa team a year or two ago. Michigan, LSU, Arizona and many other traditionally strong programs have lost to FCS teams in the past 10 years or so. And the FCS playoffs are way more legit than the FBS playoff.
But you're kind of making my point. A very good FCS team is probably about as good at the 50 percentile FBS. So we were in the bottom half. That's pretty bad.
I would say that there is reason for optimism given the Houston win, but, at the same time, it wouldn't be shocking if Tulane misses a bowl next year as Tulane was inconsistent and either lost or struggled to win games that should have been easy wins. With Wake Forest, @UAB, and @Ohio State OOC and games @Cincinnati, @Houston, and @USF, Tulane is going to have earn those 6 wins.

Of course a dream scenario could happen where the coaches of Memphis, Wake Forest, UAB, USF and Navy are all hired away during the offseason.
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Ruski wrote:
DfromCT wrote:
Ruski wrote: On the other hand we were 17 points away from ending up 2-9. That "good loss" to Navy ended up being a "pretty ok loss". That huge corner turning win over Tulsa led us running head first into a brick wall. We lost to an alright FIU team and a terrible Cincy team. It took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than a FCS team.
When you say it took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than an FCS team, I assume you're talking about ECU's loss to an FCS team? That FCS team is defending national champion James Madison, who would be double digit favorites over Tulane. I'd lay the points, too. Their coach will likely get P5 offers. They also hosted ESPN College Gameday for the second time in two seasons this year.

Folks need to learn a bit more about FCS programs. The top 5 would have very very good records playing the bottom half of FBS. Heck, North Dakota State beat a top 20 Iowa team a year or two ago. Michigan, LSU, Arizona and many other traditionally strong programs have lost to FCS teams in the past 10 years or so. And the FCS playoffs are way more legit than the FBS playoff.
But you're kind of making my point. A very good FCS team is probably about as good at the 50 percentile FBS. So we were in the bottom half. That's pretty bad.
But we haven't been ranked in the top half of FBS in a long time. Yes, part of this is setting the bar low, but a move to the middle of FBS would be a BIG step in the right direction.
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Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Ruski wrote:
DfromCT wrote:
Ruski wrote: On the other hand we were 17 points away from ending up 2-9. That "good loss" to Navy ended up being a "pretty ok loss". That huge corner turning win over Tulsa led us running head first into a brick wall. We lost to an alright FIU team and a terrible Cincy team. It took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than a FCS team.
When you say it took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than an FCS team, I assume you're talking about ECU's loss to an FCS team? That FCS team is defending national champion James Madison, who would be double digit favorites over Tulane. I'd lay the points, too. Their coach will likely get P5 offers. They also hosted ESPN College Gameday for the second time in two seasons this year.

Folks need to learn a bit more about FCS programs. The top 5 would have very very good records playing the bottom half of FBS. Heck, North Dakota State beat a top 20 Iowa team a year or two ago. Michigan, LSU, Arizona and many other traditionally strong programs have lost to FCS teams in the past 10 years or so. And the FCS playoffs are way more legit than the FBS playoff.
But you're kind of making my point. A very good FCS team is probably about as good at the 50 percentile FBS. So we were in the bottom half. That's pretty bad.
I would say that there is reason for optimism given the Houston win, but, at the same time, it wouldn't be shocking if Tulane misses a bowl next year as Tulane was inconsistent and either lost or struggled to win games that should have been easy wins. With Wake Forest, @UAB, and @Ohio State OOC and games @Cincinnati, @Houston, and @USF, Tulane is going to have earn those 6 wins.

Of course a dream scenario could happen where the coaches of Memphis, Wake Forest, UAB, USF and Navy are all hired away during the offseason.
As to next years schedule Wake loses their QB and we get them in the new QB's first game. Memphis also loses their QB and could lose their coach.
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On a slightly different note, it seems to me that there was a noticeable uptick in student interest and attendance. Obviously, winning more games will be the most important factor in a significant uptick in student interest but it does seem that there is at least a bit of interest. This slight rise in interest also seems to be occurring with the basketball team.
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DfromCT wrote:
Ruski wrote:But you're kind of making my point. A very good FCS team is probably about as good at the 50 percentile FBS. So we were in the bottom half. That's pretty bad.
But we haven't been ranked in the top half of FBS in a long time. Yes, part of this is setting the bar low, but a move to the middle of FBS would be a BIG step in the right direction.
I think this is what a lot of us are saying. We're not saying our goal should be middle of FBS, but being middle of FBS IS AN IMPROVEMENT over being bottom 10% of FBS. There IS improvement. But no, we should not settle for middle. But to be honest, RIGHT NOW, if we could put together 4-5years in a row of just 6-7 wins and go to bowls, I'd be feeling good. Its a process. We haven't even been consistently AVERAGE in my entire 58 year lifetime. I'd consider reaching that as an accomplishment. Not the final goal, mind you, but it would definitely move the needle.
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RobertM320 wrote:
DfromCT wrote:
Ruski wrote:But you're kind of making my point. A very good FCS team is probably about as good at the 50 percentile FBS. So we were in the bottom half. That's pretty bad.
But we haven't been ranked in the top half of FBS in a long time. Yes, part of this is setting the bar low, but a move to the middle of FBS would be a BIG step in the right direction.
I think this is what a lot of us are saying. We're not saying our goal should be middle of FBS, but being middle of FBS IS AN IMPROVEMENT over being bottom 10% of FBS. There IS improvement. But no, we should not settle for middle. But to be honest, RIGHT NOW, if we could put together 4-5years in a row of just 6-7 wins and go to bowls, I'd be feeling good. Its a process. We haven't even been consistently AVERAGE in my entire 58 year lifetime. I'd consider reaching that as an accomplishment. Not the final goal, mind you, but it would definitely move the needle.
I agree, Robert. I want to compete first for AAC championships and New Years 6 Bowl invites. This is going to take a couple or more years to get there. The book is still out as to whether or not this staff can take us there, but I think Coach Fritz can do it. It's not going to be a quick fix ala UCF. UCF (despite going winless) had more talent and a much better recent history to recruit to. And the reward for Frost turning around the program so fast is that he's probably leaving UCF, likely going to his alma mater, Nebraska.

To set the record straight, I think the top 2-4 FCS teams could compete against the top 20-60 teams in FBS. They wouldn't win the majority of games, but they'd be as competitive as we are against our mediocre schedule. They'd have a tough time against the likes of Alabama and Clemson, but as we've seen can beat an LSU, Michigan, etc. People don't realize that they're that good.

At the same time, I do take Ruski's point seriously, but think that getting into that 40-60 range in terms of D1 ranking would be acceptable movement in the right direction. The way I read Fritz's comments in the Advocate, he thinks we can compete for division title next year. I certainly hope he's right. I will go out on a limb here and say that everyone predicting gloom and doom here b/c of graduation and attrition are wrong. I say we win 7 games next year and make some noise in conference. Yes, we're losing some very good players. But we're also filling those holes with players that have played well and can mature into the role of starter. Every year every team in the nation loses players and has holes to plug. That's the nature of NCAA football. I don't see that we're any worse off than our conference mates in plugging those holes. And we have an emerging star receiver in Darnell Mooney.

If I'm wrong about my 7 win prediction, I will have doubts about our ability to compete in the AAC. I also think If I'm right it will be a huge recruiting boost, but again, if Fritz leaves we'll face challenges either hiring a coach that likes the zone-read-option or one that is more fun to watch (pro or spread).

I'm disappointed in our lack of bowl eligibility, but guardedly optimistic about the direction of the program.
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Of course every team in college loses players every year. Not everyone loses 8 on one side of the ball.That's what has people concerned about a noticeable drop on that side of the ball. Nickerson is especially a big loss like Smart was last year. We don't have anybody on the roster that comes anywhere close to what he was capable of. It's a legit concern no matter how some try to just brush it away. Throw in the issues with the scheme this year and it is even more of a concern. We have a lot to figure out on that side of the ball.

We agree that this team needs to get to at least 7 wins next year to show progress. The schedule isn't nearly as daunting as some on various sites are trying to make it out to be. The offense should be better as Banks continues to develop. That's WHY NO ONE IS PREDICTING DOOM AND GLOOM. They are expressing legit concerns about the D and are hopeful the offensive improvement more than covers for it.
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We played 8 games in the league this year and 6 were within one score either way (the other two were a blowout of Tulsa and a blowout of Memphis).

We can play with the teams in this league, and I feel like we are going to have another 6 or so games next year in conference that are going to come down to more or less the last possession. In those games, its almost always about who makes fewer mistakes in the second half. I think mental toughness has improved from year to year during the Fritz era, but it has a ways to go still. That road trip we took to FIU felt more like a vacation to south Florida for the guys, and hopefully they learned their lesson from that. Hopefully they learn that stupid penalties like Cam Sample's facemask can turn a 20 yard loss on a sack into a 15 yard gain that extends a drive on third down. Every football team makes mistakes, but teams that win close games make fewer of them. We need to keep improving. We aren't far off.

The defensive losses are cause for concern, but I feel like the improvement we are seeing on offense will make up for it and give the guys time to get their feet under them.

It's year three. Everyone knows it is a big year for the program, and winning is not a "goal" -- it is an expectation. I expect to see an offseason program that demonstrates this.
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Everyone is so concerned about all the players we're losing on defense. Here's the list :Aruna, Wilson, Carroll, Marbley, Jackson, Nickerson, Franklin, Washington. Eight players. Marbley was a solid 3 star, Aruna and Washington were marginal 3 stars. The rest of them were two stars. You can't look at these 3 star kids that were a freshman or sophomore this past season and say they're not as good as what we're losing. The truth is, talentwise they are.

Give them a chance before you draw conclusions. In 2014, no one really knew that Jackson, Nickerson and Franklin would turn out to be solid. What I do know is that the players Fritz brought in last season rated comparable coming out of HS to what we're losing from this team, and the players he's got committed this year for the most part are rated higher than any of the players we're losing.

Just looked up some numbers. CJ signed 12 players that were rated an 83 or better by 247 in his 4 seasons. Only 5 in his last two seasons. Fritz had 5 his first two seasons, but he's already got 6 commits rated that high in the current class. The talent is on the way, guys.

And unlike a number of CJs recruits, these kids WILL be able to stay in school.
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Actually one can say they were better. On one hand when we sign players everyone wants to say ignore the rankings . Then when it fits their argument they want to say look at the rankings. We lose 8 players. There is not one that's close to Nickerson in talent. We had Tre Jackson who could have been if he was fortunate to get healthy like Parry did but he just got kicked off the team. That's a huge loss on the back end. For some reason most people ignore how good and important Wilson was. Big loss up front. Marbley played really well and we haven't done well with recruiting LB's. We are after some JC's there and we need them. Carroll and Aruna didn't perform as well this year but a lot of that had to do with scheme than talent. Franklin will be missed. Jackson made plays at key times and was a good contributor. Our D went down some when 'Washington got hurt.

The only young guys that played meaningful minutes and contributed were Sample and Keurschen. Keurschen had some obvious limitations. It might be good to move him to LB. I think Sample will be good for us. Barge has potential . Several people are high on Keyes. Hopefully they're right. Johnson played some but didn't do much but he could develop.

For argument sake say those guys turn out to be better we still won't have much if any depth. So as myself and others are saying there is legitimate reason to be concerned about that side of the ball.
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There's also a factor of which positions have the most positive/negative impact on the play of other positions. This season we barely scraped by defensively with a patchwork scheme. I am sure that Coach Speer & the staff will do an excellent job of preparing our 17 year old & 18-year-old recruits. They show great promise but they're still 17 & 18 years old.
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winwave wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Ruski wrote:
DfromCT wrote:
Ruski wrote: On the other hand we were 17 points away from ending up 2-9. That "good loss" to Navy ended up being a "pretty ok loss". That huge corner turning win over Tulsa led us running head first into a brick wall. We lost to an alright FIU team and a terrible Cincy team. It took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than a FCS team.
When you say it took overtime to beat ECU and we scored fewer points than an FCS team, I assume you're talking about ECU's loss to an FCS team? That FCS team is defending national champion James Madison, who would be double digit favorites over Tulane. I'd lay the points, too. Their coach will likely get P5 offers. They also hosted ESPN College Gameday for the second time in two seasons this year.

Folks need to learn a bit more about FCS programs. The top 5 would have very very good records playing the bottom half of FBS. Heck, North Dakota State beat a top 20 Iowa team a year or two ago. Michigan, LSU, Arizona and many other traditionally strong programs have lost to FCS teams in the past 10 years or so. And the FCS playoffs are way more legit than the FBS playoff.
But you're kind of making my point. A very good FCS team is probably about as good at the 50 percentile FBS. So we were in the bottom half. That's pretty bad.
I would say that there is reason for optimism given the Houston win, but, at the same time, it wouldn't be shocking if Tulane misses a bowl next year as Tulane was inconsistent and either lost or struggled to win games that should have been easy wins. With Wake Forest, @UAB, and @Ohio State OOC and games @Cincinnati, @Houston, and @USF, Tulane is going to have earn those 6 wins.

Of course a dream scenario could happen where the coaches of Memphis, Wake Forest, UAB, USF and Navy are all hired away during the offseason.
As to next years schedule Wake loses their QB and we get them in the new QB's first game. Memphis also loses their QB and could lose their coach.
I should have added that USF loses their QB too. So there is not a single conference opponent that we play next year that is in the unwinnable category. In fact the only game that is in that category on next years schedule is Ohio State. so there are 11 legitimate chances to get wins next year. Let's get at least 7 of them.
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The same cry was made last year when we lost Marley and Smart. 8 Players is a lot to lose, and Nickerson is the best we've had in the secondary (including Doss) in a long time. It's not like he didn't get beat at all this year. He did, and when we played good QB's with decent WR's, they didn't shy away from him. He's a big loss, for sure. But we're not going to play 3 vs. 11 on that side of the ball.

More importantly, other than Hilliard, who was the best RB we've had since maybe Forte, we're bringing almost everyone on the offensive 2 deep depth chart back. On the O-line that may be good or might not be good. But being in Fritz's scheme for a third year means a lot and hopefully we can have a ball control offense that includes enough passing, like we did the later part of this past season, to keep opposing D's off balance and keeps the ball long enough to minimize the time on the field our D has to play. Any D plays a lot better when their offense isn't constantly going 3 and out.
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Mixed feelings here. Losing 8 heavy contributors on D is a lot for one year but it's not like we're turning over a killer D. In fact they were terrible statistically.

Rankings (out of 129)
Total Defense - 100, 436 ypg
Yards Per Play - 123, 6.68 ypp
Scoring Defense - 85, 29.2 ppg

Those stats with the offense being 14th in the league with TOP are really bad. In the past we could blame our defense collapses on the fact they were always on the field. Not this year.

By the way, Tulsa and ECU were ranked in the bottom 3 of total D, with Uconn on their heels.
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netshorty wrote:Mixed feelings here. Losing 8 heavy contributors on D is a lot for one year but it's not like we're turning over a killer D. In fact they were terrible statistically.

Rankings (out of 129)
Total Defense - 100, 436 ypg
Yards Per Play - 123, 6.68 ypp
Scoring Defense - 85, 29.2 ppg

Those stats with the offense being 14th in the league with TOP are really bad. In the past we could blame our defense collapses on the fact they were always on the field. Not this year.

By the way, Tulsa and ECU were ranked in the bottom 3 of total D, with Uconn on their heels.
+1 We were a patchwork defense this year. Thank God the offense is coming to shape. Looking forward to a complimentary defense on par with the likes of Doss, Nixon, Welcome, Redwine, Smart, Wilson. Enjoy the track meets!
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DfromCT wrote:The same cry was made last year when we lost Marley and Smart. 8 Players is a lot to lose, and Nickerson is the best we've had in the secondary (including Doss) in a long time. It's not like he didn't get beat at all this year. He did, and when we played good QB's with decent WR's, they didn't shy away from him. He's a big loss, for sure. But we're not going to play 3 vs. 11 on that side of the ball.

More importantly, other than Hilliard, who was the best RB we've had since maybe Forte, we're bringing almost everyone on the offensive 2 deep depth chart back. On the O-line that may be good or might not be good. But being in Fritz's scheme for a third year means a lot and hopefully we can have a ball control offense that includes enough passing, like we did the later part of this past season, to keep opposing D's off balance and keeps the ball long enough to minimize the time on the field our D has to play. Any D plays a lot better when their offense isn't constantly going 3 and out.
No one cried but they did say he was bigger loss than most thought and that proved true. There was one bad game for Nickerson other than that he played very well. No one said we will play 3vs. 11. But we have suffered significant losses there and hopefully we bring in JC' and grad transfers that the staff is trying to land. That would help overcome the great deal of inexperience we'll face on that side of the ball.
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6-4-23:Now all of the mistakes Tulane has made finally catches up with them as they descend to CUSAAC.
winwave
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netshorty wrote:Mixed feelings here. Losing 8 heavy contributors on D is a lot for one year but it's not like we're turning over a killer D. In fact they were terrible statistically.

Rankings (out of 129)
Total Defense - 100, 436 ypg
Yards Per Play - 123, 6.68 ypp
Scoring Defense - 85, 29.2 ppg

Those stats with the offense being 14th in the league with TOP are really bad. In the past we could blame our defense collapses on the fact they were always on the field. Not this year.

By the way, Tulsa and ECU were ranked in the bottom 3 of total D, with Uconn on their heels.
As they say stats are for loser. The staff made a scheme change and it didn't work. The same players a year before weren't that bad.
BAYWAVE&Sophandros are SPINELESS COWARDS
YOU NEED LEVERAGE TO BE PROACTIVE!
Small time facilities for small time programs
6-4-23:Now all of the mistakes Tulane has made finally catches up with them as they descend to CUSAAC.
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