Massey Composite Rankings Tulane and the AAC

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DfromCT
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winwave wrote:They have beaten no one. They are not a GOOD team.
I'm curious, win: do you think Tulane is a good team?


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winwave
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Not yet. We are getting better but as Fritz himself has said we have a long way to go. Again you don't have just good and bad team categories to lump teams in with. I'd put us at average right now.

Do you think we are a good team?
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winwave wrote:Not yet. We are getting better but as Fritz himself has said we have a long way to go. Again you don't have just good and bad team categories to lump teams in with. I'd put us at average right now.

Do you think we are a good team?
These guys think Tulane is a good team (or rather slightly above average at number 60 of 129 at top of bell curve) and AAC is a better conference than BIg 12. Ratings are based on team performances to date this season and nothing more. Thus GA is number one this week. We'll see what it all means.

http://www.andersonsports.com/football/ACF_frnk.html

I don't have a strong view on it. Just nice that someone somewhere is showing the Wave early love.
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RobertM320
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I would say we're average. I don't think we have enough info to rate them as better than that. If we blow out FIU and hang tough with USF I'd say it's an upward trend. Best USF and go 5-2, then we might move to good.
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winwave
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RobertM320 wrote:I would say we're average. I don't think we have enough info to rate them as better than that. If we blow out FIU and hang tough with USF I'd say it's an upward trend. Best USF and go 5-2, then we might move to good.
Thanks. I was coming back to edit my post to add that we are definitely on an upward trend.
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winwave
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lurker123 wrote:
winwave wrote:Not yet. We are getting better but as Fritz himself has said we have a long way to go. Again you don't have just good and bad team categories to lump teams in with. I'd put us at average right now.

Do you think we are a good team?
These guys think Tulane is a good team (or rather slightly above average at number 60 of 129 at top of bell curve) and AAC is a better conference than BIg 12. Ratings are based on team performances to date this season and nothing more. Thus GA is number one this week. We'll see what it all means.

http://www.andersonsports.com/football/ACF_frnk.html

I don't have a strong view on it. Just nice that someone somewhere is showing the Wave early love.
This isn't something that's strictly a mathematical equation. Teams don't fit squarely inside that. We watch this team. Do you think they are above average? As you aid it is nice to see us get some notice.
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DfromCT
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winwave wrote:Not yet. We are getting better but as Fritz himself has said we have a long way to go. Again you don't have just good and bad team categories to lump teams in with. I'd put us at average right now.

Do you think we are a good team?
I think we're a team that has improved from a bad, if not very bad team last year to one that started the year as not very good but is improving. Right now I think we're mediocre, almost average D1, but with the trend going the way it is, if we keep improving (and I think we're MUCH better than we were to start the season) we could be a solid good team, knocking on top 40 in the next couple of weeks. A big win this week and competitive games with a win against either USF or Memphis and I would call our team a good team. I have faith in the coaching staff which I feel is getting a lot out of a roster that still has limits. By next year I would expect us to fall into that "good team" category with hopes of competing for a conference title.
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lurker123
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winwave wrote:
lurker123 wrote:
winwave wrote:Not yet. We are getting better but as Fritz himself has said we have a long way to go. Again you don't have just good and bad team categories to lump teams in with. I'd put us at average right now.

Do you think we are a good team?
These guys think Tulane is a good team (or rather slightly above average at number 60 of 129 at top of bell curve) and AAC is a better conference than BIg 12. Ratings are based on team performances to date this season and nothing more. Thus GA is number one this week. We'll see what it all means.

http://www.andersonsports.com/football/ACF_frnk.html

I don't have a strong view on it. Just nice that someone somewhere is showing the Wave early love.
This isn't something that's strictly a mathematical equation. Teams don't fit squarely inside that. We watch this team. Do you think they are above average? As you aid it is nice to see us get some notice.
Win, I think Fritz is an outstanding coach who has devised a system to let players punch above their weight with less resources. I was not surprised by the first 20 minutes of the OU game nor the last 40 minutes either. To win such games, Tulane needs luck (including ball bouncing right way and no injuries to key players especially QBs.) Fritz has yet to beat a P5 team at Tulane. I can see that if Fritz can amp his recruiting, he could turn Tulane into a very good team with his way above average coaching and organizational skills.

I'm ok with being FCS average today moving (hopefully quickly) in the right direction. Think what he inherited from previous regime. Meanwhile this week is a typical trap game for "historical" Tulane. Let's see if Fritz has team ready to play to form (i.e., win by at least the spread of two touchdowns.) Then let's see how they play against USF and Memphis. We can revisit this then in three weeks and objectively determine with on the field performance if Tulane is good.

Finally basic sports psychology is projecting success. I don't have any issue with your dispassionate analysis and I appreciate the time and effort you clearly put into it. But we're fans here. Sometimes we need to be Knute Rockne and not Cassandra or even Guerry Smith before the games. Save the gimlet eye stuff for after the games and the season.

This site in particular needs more "How can we win this game now" with still looking at it totally realistically. To your credit you are absolutely focused on Tulane becoming a great program (not just good.) We need more like you because I totally agree that it is achievable. You are not mired in defeatism. We simply sometimes disagree on the steps to get to superior program status and yes often too many of us are cranky about how we discuss those differences. I'll do better on that score. (It helps though to have a coach like Willie that eases the pain!!)

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I think you meant FBS. There's nothing wrong with being realistic. We know that other site only allows cheerleader types. That certainly didn't help the program. In fact it helped keep a terrible administration along with terrible coaches in place. Thank goodness Steve finally stepped up for ALL Tulane fans.

As for the current analysis that is exactly what it is. We all agree that teams change during the course of a season. Some can continue to develop. Some stagnate and others regress. I think all of us agree that our team is one that will continue to develop and improve this season and could certainly rise above its current average status. I said before the season that I liked the way our schedule set up. We got the easy part first which would hopefully allow us to get some wins and some confidence before we hit the tougher part of it. If we win like we should tomorrow we'll be right on schedule to take advantage of that.

As for Fritz we agree. I have always said for Tulane to succeed we would need a coach that stresses discipline and fundamentals as we will never have top flight talent across the board. I also liked that he was older and thus had a handle on all aspects of being a head coach which would enable him to overcome the obstacles at Tulane.

As for my game analysis this week I clearly stated that we will win and cover b/c Willie will keep them focused. Maybe you missed that. Nothing I ever say or do with regards to Tulane athletics is dispassionate.

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lurker123
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Win, Thanks for catching FBS slip. Life was easier with 1A and 1AA.

I was referring in general to some of the "Woe is Us" posts by some here not to your specific analysis of FIU game. Personally I have no strong feeling here and would not bet on it. Fourteen points is alot but I do expect Tulane to win and I'm definitely rooting for your prediction to come true.

I'm not preaching eyes-closed Kumbaya. It's great that Tulane fans now have multiple sites to go to and may they all grow and not simply provide cheerleader or Debbie Downer perspectives. However I admit to getting cranky when I see way over-the-top negativism and defeatism from our own fans on this forum (even if I can understand it being historically justified.) I can get all the TULAME stuff I want from the LSU folks we live with.

I'll do better to disagree civilly and meanwhile encourage our fans to join Fritz who always aims to win now but still work to get him more resources to continue to improve for the future.

Next two home games could be really fun. I'm pulling for Fritz to make it happen.
winwave
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It was easier w/1A and 1AA.

As for FIU I get that one wouldn't want to bet it. I haven't been able to keep up with the weather that they are supposed to get there. I know early in the week there was supposed to be another storm that might be affecting their weather a good bit and you never know how that turns out.

As for negativism as you noted Tulane's history gives reasonable people good reason to pause before believing wholly in WF and this team at this time. Then there's the fact that our offense has really only been on a roll for the last series of Army and then against Tulsa. So it's understandable that some may not believe it will continue to be productive. Hopefully the offense has found itself and only continues to improve. The line is still very shaky on pass protection which is our biggest hold up in really seeing this offense produce at maximum efficiency no matter the opponent.

I agree that the next to home games could be fun. So let's take care of FIU the way we hope we do and then let the good times roll.
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GreenLantern
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Forget the Massey rankings. Here is the GreenLantern non-composite ranking and it's all you need to know:
  • Tulane beat Tulsa by 34 pts
  • Tulsa beat ULL by 24 pts
  • ULL beat Idaho by 5 pts
  • Idaho beat Univ So Ala by 6 pts
  • Univ So Ala beat Troy by 11 pts
  • Troy beat LSU by 3 pts
Ergo, by the transitive property of football, Tulane is 83 points better than LSU

BTW, has anyone else noticed that the ULL trolls have made themselves scarce since ULL has tanked and Tulane has improved?
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RobertM320
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GreenLantern wrote:Forget the Massey rankings. Here is the GreenLantern non-composite ranking and it's all you need to know:
  • Tulane beat Tulsa by 34 pts
  • Tulsa beat ULL by 24 pts
  • ULL beat Idaho by 5 pts
  • Idaho beat Univ So Ala by 6 pts
  • Univ So Ala beat Troy by 11 pts
  • Troy beat LSU by 3 pts
Ergo, by the transitive property of football, Tulane is 83 points better than LSU

BTW, has anyone else noticed that the ULL trolls have made themselves scarce since ULL has tanked and Tulane has improved?
I was noticing the same. I was shocked not to see any of them comment on the post regarding their new logo. :mrgreen:
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winwave
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GreenLantern wrote:Forget the Massey rankings. Here is the GreenLantern non-composite ranking and it's all you need to know:
  • Tulane beat Tulsa by 34 pts
  • Tulsa beat ULL by 24 pts
  • ULL beat Idaho by 5 pts
  • Idaho beat Univ So Ala by 6 pts
  • Univ So Ala beat Troy by 11 pts
  • Troy beat LSU by 3 pts
Ergo, by the transitive property of football, Tulane is 83 points better than LSU

BTW, has anyone else noticed that the ULL trolls have made themselves scarce since ULL has tanked and Tulane has improved?
Would have never thought of them if you hadn't mentioned them. Curse you.
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Wavetrader
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Also noticed that there were maybe 5000 fans at Cajun stadium for the ULL/Texas State game last night. Can't believe I had nothing better to do than watch 20 mins of that game last night.
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College Football Reference is what I use. It uses margin of victory and strength of schedule to determine their Simple Rating System (SRS). The Wave are ranked 43rd right now with LSU at 53. Tulane's offense (OSRS) is 59th while their defense (DSRS) is 48th.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/ye ... tings.html

The AAC is the 6th best conference in the country and the only G5 conference whose rating is above 0.00.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2017.html

The Wave's SRS is 6th in the AAC while their strength of schedule (SOS) is 3rd in the conference.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/co ... /2017.html
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