Oklahoma 56 - Tulane 14

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Re: Oklahoma GameDay Thread

Postby tpstulane » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:49 am

chain gang x man wrote:We did have Angry Wave beer
Plus Yuengling, Dos Equis, Budweiser, Miller Lite and Jucifer
Also Crown and Fighting c**k
Our beer was not that 3.2 beer they sell in Oklahoma

Yes and Ghost in the Machine 8.5 beer!


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Tulane Class of 1981

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Re: Oklahoma 56 - Tulane 14

Postby RobertM320 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:07 am

Wave QB wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
tpstulane wrote:On OU the trip this weekend I spoke to a parent who's son happens to play on defense. He told me since we like to run the ball a lot at practice the defense doesn't get to see enough live passing. He said the AAC is full of big pass attacks. He said we may be under prepared to defend the pass. OU exploited that weakness bigtime. Makes sense when you think about it.


If Tulane beats FIU, Army, Cincinnati, and ECU, it only has to defeat one of the teams with a good passing attack (SMU, Memphis, Tulsa, USF, and Houston) to reach bowl eligibility. It's still somewhat of a long shot, but there is still a shot.



Don't see us beating Army, Cincy or ECU. I hope we do.


One at a time. Cincinnati. Let's consider their loss to Michigan as being comparable to our loss to OU. You really think their performance in wins over Austin Peay (26-14) and Miami (OH) (21-17), both of which they struggled mightily, rates better than our performances against Grambling and @Navy? Please.

ECU. Hard to tell. Three blowout losses, but to 3 good teams, James Madison,WVU and Va Tech. We'll know a lot more after their game against UConn this weekend.

Army. Like Cincy, their paycheck game vs Ohio State is similar to ours against OU. They beat Fordham and Buffalo.

There's nothing in those three schools' performances so far this season to give any indication that we're not capable of beating them. And two of those three are at home. Stop being so defeated before the season even gets underway.


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Re: Oklahoma 56 - Tulane 14

Postby nowave » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:37 am

RobertM320 wrote:
Wave QB wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
tpstulane wrote:On OU the trip this weekend I spoke to a parent who's son happens to play on defense. He told me since we like to run the ball a lot at practice the defense doesn't get to see enough live passing. He said the AAC is full of big pass attacks. He said we may be under prepared to defend the pass. OU exploited that weakness bigtime. Makes sense when you think about it.


If Tulane beats FIU, Army, Cincinnati, and ECU, it only has to defeat one of the teams with a good passing attack (SMU, Memphis, Tulsa, USF, and Houston) to reach bowl eligibility. It's still somewhat of a long shot, but there is still a shot.



Don't see us beating Army, Cincy or ECU. I hope we do.


One at a time. Cincinnati. Let's consider their loss to Michigan as being comparable to our loss to OU. You really think their performance in wins over Austin Peay (26-14) and Miami (OH) (21-17), both of which they struggled mightily, rates better than our performances against Grambling and @Navy? Please.

ECU. Hard to tell. Three blowout losses, but to 3 good teams, James Madison,WVU and Va Tech. We'll know a lot more after their game against UConn this weekend.

Army. Like Cincy, their paycheck game vs Ohio State is similar to ours against OU. They beat Fordham and Buffalo.

There's nothing in those three schools' performances so far this season to give any indication that we're not capable of beating them. And two of those three are at home. Stop being so defeated before the season even gets underway.


we will beat ecu. they are terrible.

but its not our opponents performances against other teams that leads me to believe we arent capable of beating them. i dont think we are capable of beating them based on how ive seen us play. 105th in the nation in total offense and 11th in aac. gotta score to win and we cant continue to count on pick sixes.



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Re: Oklahoma 56 - Tulane 14

Postby RobertM320 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:14 pm

But a win is a win. We're just more likely to win a game 24-21 than we are to win 44-41.


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Re: Oklahoma 56 - Tulane 14

Postby RobertM320 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:25 pm

Anyone interested in Oklahoma -26 at Baylor this weekend? Line started at -27.5 and all the money is being bet on OU, but the spread went down.


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Re: Oklahoma 56 - Tulane 14

Postby GreenPuddleSplash » Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:30 pm

The box score from this weekend's game: Look away, it was not pretty. I would usually go into more detail with how players did, but it's just too much to post since OU stomped us. Baker Mayfield accounted for 4 passing tds before they put in their backup QB. Brantley threw a pick 6 and was pedestrian throwing the ball. Our ground game was led by Brantley and Hilliard. We scored early and had the lead 14-7 and then it all went downhill once Brantley threw the pick 6 in the second quarter. By the end of the 3rd, we put in our second stringers and so did OU. It just didn't go well and we saw the same problems from last year when we couldn't throw the ball and keep defenses honest. We had a ton of people get hurt or dinged up, let's just hope we get a healthy practice report for hosting Army this week in a very winnable game.

Total Yards:
TU: 291 yards
OU: 631 yards

Passing:

TU: 6/12 for 54 yards
OU: 20/30, for 434 yards

Rushing:

TU: 62 attempts for 237 yards
OU: 32 attempts for 197 yards

Time of Possession:
TU: 37:07
OU: 22:53 (We had the ball longer since OU scored at will)

First downs gained:
TU: 20 (3rd down efficiency: 4-14)
OU: 24 (3rd down efficiency: 4-7)

Turnovers:
TU: 2 (1 int thrown pick 6, and 1 fumble lost)
OU: 2 (1 fumble, 1 int)



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Re: Oklahoma 56 - Tulane 14

Postby DfromCT » Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:02 pm

RobertM320 wrote:Anyone interested in Oklahoma -26 at Baylor this weekend? Line started at -27.5 and all the money is being bet on OU, but the spread went down.


If all the money is being bet on OU, the spread would not have gone down, Robert. As we know very well, the spread moves in order to try to get as much money on both sides, as even as possible. Vegas oddsmakers don't make their money by picking winners and losers; they make it by the maximizing the vig.


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Re: Oklahoma 56 - Tulane 14

Postby OUG » Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:47 pm

DfromCT wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:Anyone interested in Oklahoma -26 at Baylor this weekend? Line started at -27.5 and all the money is being bet on OU, but the spread went down.


If all the money is being bet on OU, the spread would not have gone down, Robert. As we know very well, the spread moves in order to try to get as much money on both sides, as even as possible. Vegas oddsmakers don't make their money by picking winners and losers; they make it by the maximizing the vig.


What you're saying is generally true. I think Robert misspoke and he meant that most of the bets are coming in on OU, not most of the money.
There is such a thing as reverse line movement, where the amount of money bet on a side and the number of bets made on a side are moving in opposite directions. In the Navy game, the overwhelming % of bets were placed on Navy but the line kept moving down because the amount of money bet was favoring Tulane (because the Tulane bets were from whales, as opposed to the general public) then as you get closer to game day, some of the public betters recognize this and swarm to the side that is attracting the sharp money, creating a steam movement. That's why the Navy line went from 14.5 down to 7. Because most of the % of bets were coming in on Navy most of the week, Vegas struggled to get a handle on how to respond to the Tulane money from early in the week.

You make it seem like Vegas only makes money off the juice on losing bets, and they don't care who wins and loses. That's ideal but rare. Frequently Vegas has tons of exposure to various outcomes because their opening line is far enough away from the market consensus that they create opportunities for sharks to pound them hard early in the week, and no matter how much they adjust the line, they can't recover from that exposure. This literally happens every weekend in Vegas. Sports books often have very bad days. It is not as cut and dry as you make it seem, although on net it is highly profitable in the very long run.



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Re: Oklahoma 56 - Tulane 14

Postby RobertM320 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:01 pm

Right. That's what I said. All the bets were coming in on OU to cover, and yet the spread went down. Not sure how that would entice anyone to put money on Baylor.


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Re: Oklahoma 56 - Tulane 14

Postby DfromCT » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:38 pm

OUG wrote:What you're saying is generally true. I think Robert misspoke and he meant that most of the bets are coming in on OU, not most of the money.
There is such a thing as reverse line movement, where the amount of money bet on a side and the number of bets made on a side are moving in opposite directions. In the Navy game, the overwhelming % of bets were placed on Navy but the line kept moving down because the amount of money bet was favoring Tulane (because the Tulane bets were from whales, as opposed to the general public) then as you get closer to game day, some of the public betters recognize this and swarm to the side that is attracting the sharp money, creating a steam movement. That's why the Navy line went from 14.5 down to 7. Because most of the % of bets were coming in on Navy most of the week, Vegas struggled to get a handle on how to respond to the Tulane money from early in the week.

You make it seem like Vegas only makes money off the juice on losing bets, and they don't care who wins and loses. That's ideal but rare. Frequently Vegas has tons of exposure to various outcomes because their opening line is far enough away from the market consensus that they create opportunities for sharks to pound them hard early in the week, and no matter how much they adjust the line, they can't recover from that exposure. This literally happens every weekend in Vegas. Sports books often have very bad days. It is not as cut and dry as you make it seem, although on net it is highly profitable in the very long run.


I don't disagree or contradict any of what your saying. What I am saying is that the lines are designed to get as even a balance of bets as possible. It certainly doesn't always work out that way. But the lines are not generally created to indicate how much the sports books feel that a certain team should win by. They try to set them where the money will balance out. That being said it's amazing how often the line is within a point or two of the outcome! It's even more dramatic in the NBA (which I really don't watch at all) where teams take and lose 20+ point leads and the game very frequently comes down to the last possession from a bettors perspective.

I had a friend named Joe, RIP, who was an NBA GM for a long time then later worked in the NBA offices as the "enforcement official for the NBA". In his retirement, Joe created a betting system that had to do with teams' travel. I never knew all of the details, but he looked at back to back road games, last home games before a long road trip, and teams at home after a long road trip. He did VERY well. He had been retired a few years, but told me two days ahead of Michael Jordan's "retirement" that he was about to leave the NBA for two years.

I, on the other hand, do better betting NFL and the horses. But it's fun to watch the line movement and compare where it started to where the line ended up against the outcome.


" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your ongoing support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia

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