GreenLantern wrote:Good coaching -> 6-6
Add a couple injuries and a half dozen unlucky ball bounces -> 3-9
An injury free team and more than our share of lucky breaks -> 8-4
I realize this is hedging my bets, but I think this team is at an inflection point.
For those of you looking for a little drama, consider this scenario: Along with great coaching, key players show astounding maturity and develop far beyond short-term expectations. (As an example, would it really surprise you if Banks improved game-by-game and lived up to his original four-star rating?) Imagine that Tulane finishes the year 10-2, losing only to Oklahoma and Houston. Shegog leads Panola HS to the MS state championship and honors his commitment with Tulane, stating that he wants to be coached by Fritz. Tulane continues to land one of the more solid recruiting classes in the last several years. On the coattails of this on-field and recruiting success, three SEC coaches lose their jobs. Positions open at Auburn, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. Don't you believe that Fritz would get a look? Don't you think his ambition would overcome any allure that Tulane might offer?
While I don't think the 10-2 scenario is at all likely, it's fun to play the what if game.
Clearly, if Fritz took THIS team to 10-2, he'd get some awards and consideration for a P5 job. But an AD would be taking a big risk on hiring a coach that runs this offense which isn't considered sexy in today's environment. And Fritz's age doesn't help him (I say that when I'm the same age myself!) Most P5's, particularly those that are typically doormats in their league, need a high scoring, pass the ball all over the gridiron attack to compete.
But if he were to get us to 10-2, he'd deserve any offer that came his way. I think we're a couple of years away from worrying. Hopefully, he'll grow to love New Orleans, and vise versa, and we'll be selling out and in position to offer him a considerable raise to have him finish his career here.
One thing that's clear, though: The longer he's here and recruiting to his system, the tougher the transition when he leaves if we go to a pro-style offense.