( just for Show Me ) CFN's 2017 AAC Crystal Ball

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DfromCT
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Any chance of a link for that vid?


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winwave
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It's on Tulane football twitter. You'll notice a sleeve on his left knee but doesn't appear to restrict his movement.
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Aberzombie1892
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winwave wrote:I'd go with this:
Certain loss:
Oklahoma

High chance of loss:
USF
MEMPHIS
TULSA

50/50
HOUSTON
NAVY
SMU
CINCINNATI
ECU
FIU
ARMY

FCS:
GRAMBLING
Out of curiosity, why separate Navy from Tulsa/Memphis/USF? And, on a separate note, why separate Houston from them as well?
winwave
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Navy didn't do so well when they lost Worth at QB and this years QB took over. I also think they take a step back on D this season. Houston lost Herman and Ward. I'm not high on the Applewhite hire. I think they didn't learn from the mistake they made when they made a safe hire a few years ago. Tulsa did.
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Aberzombie1892
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winwave wrote:Navy didn't do so well when they lost Worth at QB and this years QB took over. I also think they take a step back on D this season. Houston lost Herman and Ward. I'm not high on the Applewhite hire. I think they didn't learn from the mistake they made when they made a safe hire a few years ago. Tulsa did.
I suppose. I guess you and I differ on Niumatalolo at Navy, as I'm of the opinion that his teams have earned preseason deference based on his history of consistent winning - he's won less than 8 games once in 9 years as Navy's coach through efficiency that generally works without regard to the quality of recruiting and the players it loses. The fact that he was able to lead Navy to the AAC West title the year after Keenan Reynolds left is a testament to that.

Houston is different than Navy. It has one of the best rosters in the AAC and Ed Oliver is a difference maker, and that makes a difference without regard to the quality of Major Applewhite's coaching abilities. While Houston may be less of a sure thing in terms of being a potential AAC title contender than Navy/Tulsa/Memphis/USF, it's more of a sure thing than any other conference team on Tulane's schedule by a solid amount.
winwave
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That's more a comment about the bottom half of the league than it is on Houston.
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winwave wrote:Navy didn't do so well when they lost Worth at QB and this years QB took over. I also think they take a step back on D this season. Houston lost Herman and Ward. I'm not high on the Applewhite hire. I think they didn't learn from the mistake they made when they made a safe hire a few years ago. Tulsa did.
UH may have an upgrade at QB with the transfer from Texas A&M, this will hinge on two things, the Kid having his head on correctly and Daddy getting the hell out of the way... UH will be very competitive, Navy is beatable, especially if we can stack the line and play man to man in the secondary...Tulsa, has had some turnover, but I think the Kids they have they will not miss too much of anyone who has graduated or run out of eligibility...Memphis, on paper could be the best, I am not a big fan of the AAC allowing them to sign prop 48's, which is the reason the Big 12 wants nothing to do with them and the conference needs to make this very clear, the practice needs to stop
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DfromCT
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golfnut69 wrote:
winwave wrote:Navy didn't do so well when they lost Worth at QB and this years QB took over. I also think they take a step back on D this season. Houston lost Herman and Ward. I'm not high on the Applewhite hire. I think they didn't learn from the mistake they made when they made a safe hire a few years ago. Tulsa did.
UH may have an upgrade at QB with the transfer from Texas A&M, this will hinge on two things, the Kid having his head on correctly and Daddy getting the hell out of the way... UH will be very competitive, Navy is beatable, especially if we can stack the line and play man to man in the secondary...Tulsa, has had some turnover, but I think the Kids they have they will not miss too much of anyone who has graduated or run out of eligibility...Memphis, on paper could be the best, I am not a big fan of the AAC allowing them to sign prop 48's, which is the reason the Big 12 wants nothing to do with them and the conference needs to make this very clear, the practice needs to stop
'nut, I hate to disagree to yet another of your posts this week, but an UPGRADE at QB for Houston? Wasn't Greg Ward one of the top QB's in the nation last year and throughout his career? And you're going to say that a kid that transferred from A&M, who is battling another Kyle (JUCO transfer Kyle Postma) for the starting job, is going to be an upgrade over one of the most decorated QB's UH has ever had? C'mon, Man!

I do agree with others that Navy has lost a lot of talent, but, IMHO, their coach is the best coach in the AAC. He's played as tough or tougher schedule than anyone in the conference year in and year out and wins 8-10 games every year.
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golfnut69
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DfromCT wrote:
golfnut69 wrote:
winwave wrote:Navy didn't do so well when they lost Worth at QB and this years QB took over. I also think they take a step back on D this season. Houston lost Herman and Ward. I'm not high on the Applewhite hire. I think they didn't learn from the mistake they made when they made a safe hire a few years ago. Tulsa did.
UH may have an upgrade at QB with the transfer from Texas A&M, this will hinge on two things, the Kid having his head on correctly and Daddy getting the hell out of the way... UH will be very competitive, Navy is beatable, especially if we can stack the line and play man to man in the secondary...Tulsa, has had some turnover, but I think the Kids they have they will not miss too much of anyone who has graduated or run out of eligibility...Memphis, on paper could be the best, I am not a big fan of the AAC allowing them to sign prop 48's, which is the reason the Big 12 wants nothing to do with them and the conference needs to make this very clear, the practice needs to stop
'nut, I hate to disagree to yet another of your posts this week, but an UPGRADE at QB for Houston? Wasn't Greg Ward one of the top QB's in the nation last year and throughout his career? And you're going to say that a kid that transferred from A&M, who is battling another Kyle (JUCO transfer Kyle Postma) for the starting job, is going to be an upgrade over one of the most decorated QB's UH has ever had? C'mon, Man!

I do agree with others that Navy has lost a lot of talent, but, IMHO, their coach is the best coach in the AAC. He's played as tough or tougher schedule than anyone in the conference year in and year out and wins 8-10 games every year.
Ward was a good player, but in my opinion, never a QB that scared me...I may be incorrect, but I do not think UH won one championship with him starting..but let's look at the 3 year record...2014 UH lost to Tulane-UTSA-UCF-Cincy- BYU....2015 a damn good year, one loss to UCONN !!! let's go to 2016 lost to Navy - SMU - Memphis - San Diego State... big W's- OU was good but not great early in the year and L'Ville was way overrated ...I noted in my post, "if the transfer has his head on straight and daddy keeps his mouth quite" he can be one hell of a player,,we will see, what happens
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DfromCT
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Some of the losses you mention above were games that Ward was injured. OU and Louisville finished the season ranked 3rd and 20th, respectfully in the Coaches poll. Louisville had been as high as #4, but had a mediocre (at best) 2nd half of the season in what last year was arguably the strongest conference.
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winwave
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Even Finebaum admitted at SEC media days this week that the ACC was the best conference right now.
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MicMan
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The Oklahoma game could be worse than the Ga. Tech game a few years ago, much worse.
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