Line Now UCF 13 & 1/2 pts. > Wave – The Spread Thread

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Wave755
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Spread Opens UCF 11 & 1/2 pts. > Wave (nos. 309-310 for Vegas Sheet).

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foo ... las-vegas/

UCF, 3-2, “body of work” to date:

1) 9/3 – UCF 38, s. Carolina St. 0;
2) 9/10 – Michigan 51, UCF 14;
3) 9/17 – Maryland 30, UCF 24 OT;
4) 9/24 – UCF 53, FIU 14
5) 10/1 – UCF 47, E. Carolina 29.

We beat these guys last year 45 to 31 at a Yulman "Breakfast Club" 11:00 a.m. kickoff game.
Last edited by Wave755 on Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.


Aberzombie1892
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It seems about right, but I would imagine that the line will fall to around 10.
Houma de Wave
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Head Coach Scott Frost has turned them around quickly. They had a nice road win at ECU Saturday.
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GreenPuddleSplash
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If Fritz can prepare our defense for up tempo we should be fine. They barely lost to an ok Maryland team and got thumped by a really good Michigan team. Their wins are against bad teams, kind of like us and they get 11.5 at home? Taking us.
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GreenPuddleSplash wrote:If Fritz can prepare our defense for up tempo we should be fine. They barely lost to an ok Maryland team and got thumped by a really good Michigan team. Their wins are against bad teams, kind of like us and they get 11.5 at home? Taking us.
The spread will move south and probably quickly. I'd double down on Wave +11.5. I knew UCF would be favored but not like this initially.
Wave755
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lurker123 wrote:
GreenPuddleSplash wrote:If Fritz can prepare our defense for up tempo we should be fine. They barely lost to an ok Maryland team and got thumped by a really good Michigan team. Their wins are against bad teams, kind of like us and they get 11.5 at home? Taking us.
The spread will move south and probably quickly. I'd double down on Wave +11.5. I knew UCF would be favored but not like this initially.
In very early betting the line is now a consensus 12 and 13 @ Wynn? I was thinking more like 8 & 1/2 for this game? :confused:
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RobertM320
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Betonline and 5Dimes both have it at +13.5 already.
"That mantra is the only consistent thing that never needs to ever change for the rest of this program’s existence because that is all that matters & as long as that keeps occurring, everything will handle itself" -- Nick Anderson
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RobertM320 wrote:Betonline and 5Dimes both have it at +13.5 already.
Smart money is smart money for a reason but it's also lazy money as concerns the lower ranked teams. The gross volume of bets on the Tulanes and UCFs is dwarfed by amounts bet on Top 10 teams. These are courtesy lines that are put out by professionals just to demonstrate they cover the waterfront. But candidly they don't pay much attention to them because it doesn't matter much if they miss badly on it unlike say an NFL game.

Fritz has been a head coach for almost 25 years. Frost has been a head coach for four games. UCF is not a pit at home and Tulane will not pad its regular crowd. We'll be playing in Orange Blossom Valley not Death Valley.

Fritz's running game will make Frost recall his college days.

Double down on this one folks. The spread at 13.5 is at least four and maybe six or seven points out of line. No way UCF wins this game by two touchdowns.

This has made my week and it's only Sunday.
Wave755
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RobertM320 wrote:Betonline and 5Dimes both have it at +13.5 already.
Vegas consensus line is now 13 and a 1/2 pts. Take the Wave and the 13 and 1/2 pts. ;)
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Call it Stockholm Syndrome or whatever but I learned a long time ago never to bet on Tulane no matter what. UCF just beat East Carolina on the road by more points. It's no sure thing
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RobertM320
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ECU is not what they've been in recent years, and now their QB is hurt. They had to throw a sophomore who had never taken a snap into the game in the 3rd quarter and he finished the game. ECU won't win but 4-5 games this year.

However, I do agree with you, never bet on your own team. Ever.
"That mantra is the only consistent thing that never needs to ever change for the rest of this program’s existence because that is all that matters & as long as that keeps occurring, everything will handle itself" -- Nick Anderson
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greenphantom wrote:Call it Stockholm Syndrome or whatever but I learned a long time ago never to bet on Tulane no matter what. UCF just beat East Carolina on the road by more points. It's no sure thing
Agreed. That's why it's a bet. Nothing is guaranteed. But the way to make money gambling is to disproportionately bet when the odds are way in your favor. When it's more murky or problematical you bet smaller amounts.

This is like draw poker heads up and you are dealt a flush and the other guy stays in but takes four cards. Can he draw a full house or better and beat you? Sure. But you make him pay for the chance to do it.

Remember you will find folks to accept your bet because historically Tulane is a loser. Not too hard to be the bank against a loser. So the odds are now out of whack. You make the bank pay for being lazy and not being aware that this is one time at these generous odds where form of years of losing is not the controlling factor.

Who do you like? Someone who has been an HC for a few games or someone for 25 years?
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RobertM320
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I know we beat them last year when they went winless, but don't forget we almost beat them the year before as well. Final was 20-13, and we totally outplayed them. And that was a CJ coached team. We must match up with them pretty well talentwise.
"That mantra is the only consistent thing that never needs to ever change for the rest of this program’s existence because that is all that matters & as long as that keeps occurring, everything will handle itself" -- Nick Anderson
Wave755
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greenphantom wrote:Call it Stockholm Syndrome or whatever but I learned a long time ago never to bet on Tulane no matter what. UCF just beat East Carolina on the road by more points. It's no sure thing
If we were coached by Larry Coker you would bet the Wave because Larry is your Boy, that's why! Larry+Wave+13, no doubt about it, Stockholm or no Stockholm, you'd bite for dat! :lolgreen: :rollsmiley: :yes:
Last edited by Wave755 on Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
Aberzombie1892
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RobertM320 wrote:I know we beat them last year when they went winless, but don't forget we almost beat them the year before as well. Final was 20-13, and we totally outplayed them. And that was a CJ coached team. We must match up with them pretty well talentwise.
True, but they're a different team than they were last year or even the year before - just like Tulane. It's true that UCF got their but kicked by Michigan - that would happen to most teams - but Michigan and Maryland, the latter a team that they went to 2OT with, are both still undefeated. Tulane has yet to get its but kicked, and neither of the teams that beat us are undefeated - Navy lost to Air Force and Wake lost to NC State. Strangely enough, Air Force is undefeated and NC State's only loss is to an ECU team that some people say isn't that good (full circle). To be fair to both UCF (FIU/ECU) and Tulane (ULL/UMass), neither team has beaten a FBS team that currently has a winning record.

Smart money would likely not bet on this game and instead wait until closer to the end of the season and make bets on the Temple/UConn games once everyone has a better idea of how good each team is. I'm not saying that I'm predicting that Tulane will/won't cover - I'm just saying that it's too close to tell who will win. Personally, I didn't think Tulane would win this game in the preseason, and I'm not sure that I have seen enough to change that opinion.

Stats*:
Offense-Tulane
#107 in yards gained per game
#127 in passing yards gained per game
#19 in rushing yards gained per game
#117 in passing yards per attempt
#51 in rushing yards per attempt
Defense-Tulane
#17 in yards allowed per game
#17 in passing yards allowed per game
#48 in rushing yards allowed per game
#33 in rushing yards allowed per attempt
#38 in passing yards allowed per attempt

Offense-UCF
#65 in yards gained per game
#99 in passing yards gained per game
#24 in rushing yards gained per game
#95 in passing yards per attempt
#53 in rushing yards per attempt
Defense-UCF
#32 in yards allowed per game
#74 in passing yards allowed per game
#25 in rushing yards allowed per game
#14 in rushing yards allowed per attempt
#23 in passing yards allowed per attempt

*When looking at the stats, it's important to factor in that UCF played Michigan - a top flight opponent - while Tulane hasn't played a team remotely close to that caliber.
Last edited by Aberzombie1892 on Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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RobertM320
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I agree, Aberzombie. We're going to have to be able to pass in order to win. Look at their rushing yards against stats, especially when you consider they played Michigan. Offensively, their numbers seem to be a lot like ours. It will be an interesting game.
Last edited by RobertM320 on Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Easy money. Tulane will win this one. UCF has some key guys injured and game day decision.
waveclem
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TopBet.eu has this game at +13.5 paying out at -105!!! This line will most certainly go down so I've already placed my bet big on the Wave with the points!!
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GreenPuddleSplash
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Aberzombie1892 wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:I know we beat them last year when they went winless, but don't forget we almost beat them the year before as well. Final was 20-13, and we totally outplayed them. And that was a CJ coached team. We must match up with them pretty well talentwise.
True, but they're a different team than they were last year or even the year before - just like Tulane. It's true that UCF got their but kicked by Michigan - that would happen to most teams - but Michigan and Maryland, the latter a team that they went to 2OT with, are both still undefeated. Tulane has yet to get its but kicked, and neither of the teams that beat us are undefeated - Navy lost to Air Force and Wake lost to NC State. Strangely enough, Air Force is undefeated and NC State's only loss is to an ECU team that some people say isn't that good (full circle). To be fair to both UCF (FIU/ECU) and Tulane (ULL/UMass), neither team has beaten a FBS team that currently has a winning record.

Smart money would likely not bet on this game and instead wait until closer to the end of the season and make bets on the Temple/UConn games once everyone has a better idea of how good each team is. I'm not saying that I'm predicting that Tulane will/won't cover - I'm just saying that it's too close to tell who will win. Personally, I didn't think Tulane would win this game in the preseason, and I'm not sure that I have seen enough to change that opinion.

Stats*:
Offense-Tulane
#107 in yards gained per game
#127 in passing yards gained per game
#19 in rushing yards gained per game
#117 in passing yards per attempt
#51 in rushing yards per attempt
Defense-Tulane
#17 in yards allowed per game
#17 in passing yards allowed per game
#48 in rushing yards allowed per game
#33 in rushing yards allowed per attempt
#38 in passing yards allowed per attempt

Offense-UCF
#65 in yards gained per game
#99 in passing yards gained per game
#24 in rushing yards gained per game
#95 in passing yards per attempt
#53 in rushing yards per attempt
Defense-UCF
#32 in yards allowed per game
#74 in passing yards allowed per game
#25 in rushing yards allowed per game
#14 in rushing yards allowed per attempt
#23 in passing yards allowed per attempt

*When looking at the stats, it's important to factor in that UCF played Michigan - a top flight opponent - while Tulane hasn't played a team remotely close to that caliber.
It's true that UCF played top flight talent, but it's also true that they got whooped by that top flight talent in a battle that wasn't even close. Michigan decided to air it out all day and UCF's secondary was burnt to a crisp. I'm not saying our WR's and GC will do the same thing, but their secondary is just not that good and we can replicate passing protection like o/t in ULL and last Saturday, I'd take TU and the points in the a heartbeat.

Plus, we don't even really know what UCF's rushing defense is like. Michigan could have ran it all day but they decided to air it out and didn't run the ball at all. If our O-line can have another great day, should be very interesting to see how their defense reacts to stopping a 3 headed rushing attack.

I think this is going to be a lot closer of a game than anyone expects and could turn either way. I do think if Fritz can prepare our D to stop the up-tempo spread and shred, it will be a good day for our boys. Happy Monday, Beat UCF! Roll DAMN WAVE!
Aberzombie1892
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GreenPuddleSplash wrote:It's true that UCF played top flight talent, but it's also true that they got whooped by that top flight talent in a battle that wasn't even close. Michigan decided to air it out all day and UCF's secondary was burnt to a crisp. I'm not saying our WR's and GC will do the same thing, but their secondary is just not that good and we can replicate passing protection like o/t in ULL and last Saturday, I'd take TU and the points in the a heartbeat.

Plus, we don't even really know what UCF's rushing defense is like. Michigan could have ran it all day but they decided to air it out and didn't run the ball at all. If our O-line can have another great day, should be very interesting to see how their defense reacts to stopping a 3 headed rushing attack.

I think this is going to be a lot closer of a game than anyone expects and could turn either way. I do think if Fritz can prepare our D to stop the up-tempo spread and shred, it will be a good day for our boys. Happy Monday, Beat UCF! Roll DAMN WAVE!
I'm not sure that Tulane would have had a better performance against Michigan than UCF. That's not to be critical to either UCF or Tulane - it's just that Michigan, barring a collapse - will finish the regular season as a top 10 team while neither Tulane nor UCF ever really had a shot at the top 25 this year. A beat down would likely occur to either UCF or Tulane if they played Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson, Louisville, Michigan, etc. because they just aren't there yet, but that's nothing to be ashamed of because that would happen to 90%+ of all FBS teams.

As for the UCF and Michigan game specifically, UCF did manage to average 6 yards per carry on offense - although that is buoyed by an 87 yard run - and it incredibly held Michigan to 2.9 yards per carry. In contrast, Michigan averaged 6.7 per carry against Penn State, 4.1 against Colorado, 7.8 against Hawaii, and 3.0 against Wisconsin. Given that, UCF's rushing defense seems solid, and it's currently #14 in rushing yards allowed per attempt with a good performance against an elite team to boot.

As for UCFs passing D, it's currently ranked #23 in passing yards allowed per attempt, so it certainly doesn't appear to be that bad even though Michigan torched it. But, it's Michigan - it has 44 players on its roster that were rated 4* or better. That's more than the whole AAC combined.

QB v. UCF stats (omitting FCS):
Michigan: 25/37 for 312 yards and 4TDs/0INTs
Maryland: 10/23 for 127 yards and 0TDs/0INTs
ECU QB1: 26/43 for 296 yards and 2TDs/1INTs*
ECU QB2: 12/27 for 192 yards and 1TDs/2INTs*
FIU QB1: 5/9 for 68 yards and 1TDs/0INTs
FIU QB2: 6/14 for 41 yards and 0TDs/1INTs
FIU QB3: 0/1

154 passes have been attempted against UCF by FBS teams.

*As one can see, ECU attempted 70(!) passes against UCF. It will be shown why further down.

QB v. Tulane stats(omitting FCS)
ULL: 19/38 for 240 yards with 2TDs/2INTs
UMass QB1: 11/19 for 109 yards and 2TDs/1INTs
UMass QB2: 5/11 for 72 yards and 0TDs/0INTs
Navy QB: 5/12 for 59 yards and 0TDs/0INTs
Wake QB1: 9/17 for 79 yards and 0TDs/0INTs
Wake QB2: 3/4 for 17 yards and 0TDs/0INTs

101 passes have been attempted against Tulane by FBS teams.

Statistically speaking, UCF is #23 (6.1) in passing yards allowed per attempt while Tulane is #38 (6.5). They're close enough, but UCF is a little better and it is magnified by the fact that UCF has faced a lot more passes (50+ more). That raises the question, why has UCF faced a lot more passes than Tulane (aside from Navy's offense)?

Rushing yards allowed per attempt by UCF per game
Michigan: 2.9 yards per attempt (Michigan is #41 in rushing yards gained per attempt with a 4.9 average)
Maryland: 4.9 yards per attempt (FYI - Maryland is #5 in rushing yards gained per attempt with a 6.5 average)
FIU: 2.4 yards per attempt (FIU is #83 with a 4.2 average)
ECU: 1.0 yard per attempt (this is why ECU attempted 70 passes - ECU is #103 overall with a 3.8 average)

Rushing yards allowed per attempt by Tulane per game
ULL: 2.2 yards per attempt (ULL is #96 overall with a 3.9 average)
UMass: 5.5 yards per attempt (UMass is #125 overall with a 2.6 average)
Navy: 5.2 yards per attempt (Navy is #28 overall with a 5.1 average)
Wake: 2.3 yards per attempt (Wake is #88 overall with a 4.1 average)

The answer to that question is that UCFs rushing D is the real deal, and it has been tested by both one of the best teams in the nation and one of the best rushing yards per attempt teams in the nation. Tulane's rushing D, on a per attempt basis, is ranked relatively high - #33 - but it has had rough games against a decent team in that category, Navy, and a horrible team in that category, UMass, while UCF's D in that category has yet to have a bad game in light of the competition (i.e. allowed only 1 team to more than 2.9 yards per carry and that team is #5). To phrase it differently, 2/4 FBS teams that have played Tulane have averaged more yards per carry versus Tulane than their overall average, and, in sharp contrast, none of the 4 FBS teams that have played UCF have come close to their per carry averages.

EDIT: Also, when comparing stats, please note that UCF soundly defeated two opponents - ECU and FIU - so some of the successful passes and TDs against UCF were made in garbage time. In contrast, all of Tulane's FBS games have been close, so no teams were successful in garbage time because there has been no garbage time.
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I'm curious: Does anyone know what happens to the bets made before the game was postponed? Are they still valid or automatically null and void? I'm sure it's one or the other, as the line could be significantly different come the first week in November, and the books cannot give the bettors the ability to lock in a spread (i.e. Wave +13, UCF -3). I would guess that they're null and void.
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DfromCT wrote:I'm curious: Does anyone know what happens to the bets made before the game was postponed? Are they still valid or automatically nul and void? I'm sure it's one or the other, as the line could be significantly different come the first week in November, and the books cannot give the bettors the ability to lock in a spread (i.e. Wave +13, UCF -3).


The bet become's null and void. I put out a 100$ on Tulane to cover and recieved money back into my account yesterday when the game postponement was announced. It's also to protect them cuz like you said , Tulane could go on an absolute tear from now till November and the line would significantly change.
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Take Hurricane Matthew and the points . . . .
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