Up Next: Navy

[DfromCT]

Navy opened their AAC season this week with a thrilling (although nerve wracking if you're a Navy fan) 28-24 victory over the UConn Huskies. Navy took a 21-0 lead, fell behind late in the 4th quarter 21-24, regained the lead and held on (or more accurately laid on top of UConn) to win 28-14. The Huskies quickly drove back down the field, and with the ball inside the 1 yard line called time out with 17 seconds remaining. UConn called two plays in the huddle, but Navy laid atop a few of the UConn players when the first play, a run, was stopped short of the end zone. Time expired as UConn tried to line up for one last play. There was a lot of confusion and chaos on the UConn sideline the last moments of the game. They gave up more yardage on Navy's last drive than they had the entire second half. Then they took a timeout after letting 25 seconds run off the clock and the ball inside the Navy 1!

This is not the Navy team we saw a year ago. Their option was totally shut down in the second half (UConn held them to 110 yards in the second half) and they lack the upperclass leadership they showed the last two years. I think this game is winnable, but, at the same time, we will need to play like we did when Brantley was in the game: FAST. The plodding and indecisive Cuillette will probably limit our offense to very few sustained drives. Navy's D knows how to play the option and in my opinion the only way to counter that is to play fast and make the GD pitch when it's there.

In the first series he played I became a Brantley fan. I would be very disappointed if he doesn't start next week.

FWIW: The attendance in Annapolis was 31,500. I'm sure the hot/humid weather (it was in the 90's with high humidity) had something to do with it, but there were plenty of good seats available!

[golfnut69]

Navy...Big....Strong...Fast...Mean....all players attend "prep' school before enrolling, since my tax dollars do not allow them to red shirt,....that being said, who the hell know what will happen !!!...but I do predict we throw for more than 12 yards

[winwave]

"This is not the Navy team we saw a year ago. Their option was totally shut down in the second half (UConn held them to 110 yards in the second half) and they lack the upperclass leadership they showed the last two years. I think this game is winnable, "

Sounds familiar. Was that said here all offseason?

[DfromCT]

"This is not the Navy team we saw a year ago. Their option was totally shut down in the second half (UConn held them to 110 yards in the second half) and they lack the upperclass leadership they showed the last two years. I think this game is winnable, "

Sounds familiar. Was that said here all offseason?

No, what was said here all offseason was that Navy lost a great QB, and would be a much worse team as a result. You never accounted for the fact that their coach is as good as ours. Navy is a double digit favorite for a reason. The game is winnable, but we're still double digit underdogs, as we will be in most of our games.

I still don't believe that Fritz has magic pixie dust that you, the cheerleader of the board, thinks he does. And oh by the way, how did that "Big Day for AAC" turn out. Tulsa and UCF lost by over 80 points combined. Guess it was a big day for the B1G, NOT the AAC.

[tpstulane]

Navy is my swing game. Win and we could be bowl bound.

[RobertM320]

If we can beat Navy, there's a chance we could be 5-1 by the time we play Memphis. UL-L, @UMass, @UCF is hardly murderer's row.

[winwave]

"This is not the Navy team we saw a year ago. Their option was totally shut down in the second half (UConn held them to 110 yards in the second half) and they lack the upperclass leadership they showed the last two years. I think this game is winnable, "

Sounds familiar. Was that said here all offseason?

No, what was said here all offseason was that Navy lost a great QB, and would be a much worse team as a result. You never accounted for the fact that their coach is as good as ours. Navy is a double digit favorite for a reason. The game is winnable, but we're still double digit underdogs, as we will be in most of our games.

I still don't believe that Fritz has magic pixie dust that you, the cheerleader of the board, thinks he does. And oh by the way, how did that "Big Day for AAC" turn out. Tulsa and UCF lost by over 80 points combined. Guess it was a big day for the B1G, NOT the AAC.

Hard time giving credit. I said they also lost their whole O-Line and thus wouldn't be the same team.

My reference was that it was day of opportunity for the conference.

[Mandeville Wave]

Navy is my swing game. Win and we could be bowl bound.

I feel the same way.

[lurker123]

Navy is my swing game. Win and we could be bowl bound.

I feel the same way.

Look I want Tulane to beat Navy but in what league and sport does your first conference game count as "swing" when it literally completes the first quarter of your schedule? This is like voting up or down on the Saints at the end of September or the Pelicans at Thanksgiving, well you get the idea.

It's how Tulane is playing in late October and into November that will determine if it goes bowling. Meanwhile Navy game is a good leading indicator but not the decision maker.

[anEngineer]

Line already down from 11.5 to 7.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foo ... eason/2016


NAVY MIDSHIPMEN @ TULANE GREEN WAVE
7:00 PM Game Time Record Line Betting Trend
Teams Win-Loss Streak Open Current Spread Money O/U
199 Navy (2-0) (0-0 A) W-2 -11.5 -7 n/a n/a n/a
200 Tulane (1-1) (1-0 H) W-1 n/a n/a n/a
Line Movements · BT Movements · Weather · Scoreboards · Bet Now

Game is at 6:00 PM !ocal time. Don't be late.

[RobertM320]

Right, that 7pm is Eastern time.

[RobertM320]

Navy is my swing game. Win and we could be bowl bound.

I feel the same way.

Look I want Tulane to beat Navy but in what league and sport does your first conference game count as "swing" when it literally completes the first quarter of your schedule? This is like voting up or down on the Saints at the end of September or the Pelicans at Thanksgiving, well you get the idea.

It's how Tulane is playing in late October and into November that will determine if it goes bowling. Meanwhile Navy game is a good leading indicator but not the decision maker.

I think if you're looking at the schedule as a whole, you are possibly seeing 5 wins. Of the remaining six unplayed games (we've already lost to WF), Navy is the one he probably considers our best chance. If we win that, he's projecting six, and therefore bowl eligible. Lose that, and we probably only win five. That's how it could be considered a swing game, because if you can't beat Navy, you probably can't beat those other six teams either.

Although personally, I think Houston's the only team on the schedule that we aren't capable of beating.

[tpstulane]

Navy is my swing game. Win and we could be bowl bound.

I feel the same way.

Look I want Tulane to beat Navy but in what league and sport does your first conference game count as "swing" when it literally completes the first quarter of your schedule? This is like voting up or down on the Saints at the end of September or the Pelicans at Thanksgiving, well you get the idea.

It's how Tulane is playing in late October and into November that will determine if it goes bowling. Meanwhile Navy game is a good leading indicator but not the decision maker.

I think if you're looking at the schedule as a whole, you are possibly seeing 5 wins. Of the remaining six unplayed games (we've already lost to WF), Navy is the one he probably considers our best chance. If we win that, he's projecting six, and therefore bowl eligible. Lose that, and we probably only win five. That's how it could be considered a swing game, because if you can't beat Navy, you probably can't beat those other six teams either.

Although personally, I think Houston's the only team on the schedule that we aren't capable of beating.

Right. Thanks for clarifying my "swing" game.

[OUG]

"This is not the Navy team we saw a year ago. Their option was totally shut down in the second half (UConn held them to 110 yards in the second half) and they lack the upperclass leadership they showed the last two years. I think this game is winnable, "

Sounds familiar. Was that said here all offseason?

No, what was said here all offseason was that Navy lost a great QB, and would be a much worse team as a result. You never accounted for the fact that their coach is as good as ours. Navy is a double digit favorite for a reason. The game is winnable, but we're still double digit underdogs, as we will be in most of our games.

I still don't believe that Fritz has magic pixie dust that you, the cheerleader of the board, thinks he does. And oh by the way, how did that "Big Day for AAC" turn out. Tulsa and UCF lost by over 80 points combined. Guess it was a big day for the B1G, NOT the AAC.

Lol at winwave being the "cheerleader" of the board.

You guys really aren't that far off; what's the big deal? I think you said that you thought it was a 4-5 win team and winwave I think has said we could reach bowl eligibility. It's hardly a major difference of opinion.

[winwave]

A one A two...

(OUG- We get along just fine. Just typical board banter. Also, just to clarify things all I said was that it was not unreasonable to think it was POSSIBLE Tulane could become Bowl eligible).

[lurker123]

Folks, Thanks for clarifying "swing" but I disagree with you. Fritz has brought in a totally new offense and more importantly football "system." We also have a derby between three totally game-inexperienced QBs at college level in any type of offense. (Although I think we all can safely guess who will take majority of snaps against Navy even if he doesn't start.)

This team may only have a .500 record at year-end but I don't see any reason why it's not being competitive and winning in November. Last week was a good example of I think of not closing on a winnable game because of lack of experience more than anything else. I don't see that aspect disappearing in one week.

If Tulane does start 4-2 or even with luck 5-1, it will have a winning season record. I know I'm in the minority but I'm more optimistic about November than most here but also more pessimistic about the first six games. I think it's just inevitable that Tulane drops one or two more very close "winnable" games in the next few weeks until it learns how to win under the new sheriff in town. Hope I'm wrong though.

[Aberzombie1892]

If Tulane does start 4-2 or even with luck 5-1, it will have a winning season record. I know I'm in the minority but I'm more optimistic about November than most here but also more pessimistic about the first six games. I think it's just inevitable that Tulane drops one or two more very close "winnable" games in the next few weeks until it learns how to win under the new sheriff in town. Hope I'm wrong though.

Of course if Tulane begins 4-2, it will almost certainly be bowl eligible. In order to do that, Tulane would have to only lose one game out of Navy, ULL, UMass, and UCF, and the issue right now is that it's unclear whether Tulane can do that.

[RobertM320]

Aberzombie, as bad as you may think we are, ULL, UCF and UMass are worse. In this weeks Massey composite rankings, Tulane is at #102. Horrible, I know. But UCF is #110, ULL is #112 and UMass is #119, so its not even a reach to expect us to win those three games. We played WF tough, and they're #71. UConn is #82 and SMU is #101, only one spot above us. Its not unreasonable to expect five wins, so only one upset in the remaining six gets us bowl eligible.

Of course, those 4 teams are all looking at us the same way.

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

This is the best overall judge of comparative strength, as its a composite of 40+ rankings

[Aberzombie1892]

Robert, I don't believe that Tulane is "bad" - it just seems like Tulane needs to beat an FBS team before we start clearing out our December schedules so that we can travel to a bowl game. In regard to Massey, I'm a major supporter of using data to support conclusions, but it may be too soon to start using numbers from the 2016 season to project Tulane's performance against FBS teams since Tulane has only played one FBS team and lost to it while the FCS team Tulane crushed continuously hurt itself throughout the game.

[RobertM320]

And that is reflected in the fact that we're #102 of 128 teams. It just so happens four other teams on our schedule are worse. I think the true point is, we don't even have to be very good to get to a bowl game this year. That's how much the bowl scene is diluted.

[Aberzombie1892]

As the data stands now, that's certainly true, but that could easily change since we are so early in the season. For example, UConn faces 3 P5s OOC, and, if it beats 2/3 of them, it would skyrocket in Massey. The same with Navy if it beats Notre Dame, and, if Navy actually does defeat Notre Dame, it would likely positively impact UConn's numbers as well. Of course, someone could argue that UConn struggled against an FCS team so it's unlikely that it would win 2/3 P5 games and that Navy's difficulties against UConn should lower the seasonal expectations for it, but a bunch of supposedly decent P5s struggled or lost against FCS teams this year (TCU/Georgia/Washington State/etc.), so that argument wouldn't hold much weight. All I'm just saying it's a little early since it's unclear how good several teams - including Tulane - are going to be this year.

[Ruski]

Navy has 8 votes in the Coaches Poll. I think while this game is very winnable, it could also do big things for Tulane getting some PR. In a weird way I think it might've been better if Navy didn't almost mess up UCONN. I bet their coaches will be all over the players in practice this week.

[golfnut69]

Navy has 8 votes in the Coaches Poll. I think while this game is very winnable, it could also do big things for Tulane getting some PR. In a weird way I think it might've been better if Navy didn't almost mess up UCONN. I bet their coaches will be all over the players in practice this week.

A team that has 8 votes in teh Coach's poll is only a 7 point favorite over Tulane ?....shows one of two things, someone in the Athletic Dept, other than the Head Coach is voting in the poll, and yes folks it happens, I did it several times during the Mack and Greg era at Tulane or someone in Vegas is smoking something that is not legal !!!!...

[Aberzombie1892]

A team that has 8 votes in teh Coach's poll is only a 7 point favorite over Tulane ?....shows one of two things, someone in the Athletic Dept, other than the Head Coach is voting in the poll, and yes folks it happens, I did it several times during the Mack and Greg era at Tulane or someone in Vegas is smoking something that is not legal !!!!...

Well, Vegas tries to simulate the logic of bettors when setting lines in order to achieve close to 50-50 betting on games and not predict the outcome of games, so this line makes sense somewhat. Basically, some bettors will not back Tulane at all until Tulane has some wins against FBS teams, while there are other bettors that will overreact to the final score of the Southern game - remember, this has nothing to do with the actual outcome of the game and only has to do how Vegas assumes bettors think so that Vegas can get bettors to back each side - that way, Vegas will generally come out ahead no matter what happens, especially since betting payouts are virtually never -100/+100 (it's almost always a minimum of -110/+110). Of course, if Vegas guesses wrong on the line and major money comes on one side of it, the line is adjusted.

Speaking of adjustments, it looks like the line for the Navy/Tulane game opened at -10.5 and has been knocked down to -7. Some bettors must have already put major money on Tulane for it to shift 3 points this early in week.

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/navy-tul ... 016-729709

[golfnut69]

A team that has 8 votes in teh Coach's poll is only a 7 point favorite over Tulane ?....shows one of two things, someone in the Athletic Dept, other than the Head Coach is voting in the poll, and yes folks it happens, I did it several times during the Mack and Greg era at Tulane or someone in Vegas is smoking something that is not legal !!!!...

Well, Vegas tries to simulate the logic of bettors when setting lines in order to achieve close to 50-50 betting on games and not predict the outcome of games, so this line makes sense somewhat. Basically, some bettors will not back Tulane at all until Tulane has some wins against FBS teams, while there are other bettors that will overreact to the final score of the Southern game - remember, this has nothing to do with the actual outcome of the game and only has to do how Vegas assumes bettors think so that Vegas can get bettors to back each side - that way, Vegas will generally come out ahead no matter what happens, especially since betting payouts are virtually never -100/+100 (it's almost always a minimum of -110/+110). Of course, if Vegas guesses wrong on the line and major money comes on one side of it, the line is adjusted.

Speaking of adjustments, it looks like the line for the Navy/Tulane game opened at -10.5 and has been knocked down to -7. Some bettors must have already put major money on Tulane for it to shift 3 points this early in week.

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/navy-tul ... 016-729709

Abercrombie...from the hills outside of Austin, I agree that somebody or several somebodies put money on Tulane...in my opinion If they would have waited, until Tuesday the line would have increased....but that is why I do not make any bets after week one !!! ...oh well, back to my bird watching