2016 Football Season W-L Prediction

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jonathanjoseph
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OUG wrote:
JDTulane wrote:Depends on how real deal WF is. I think we open 2-2 and see where it goes from there.

If he is the real thing we go into the final games ~5-4 or 5-5 and hope for the best to finish 6-6 with a bowl game.

If he is as good as we HOPE for after years of ineptitude, 4-8.

If he's another dud we'll probably win our usual 2-3.
So the line between him being an abject failure and him being as good as we hope is 3 wins to 4 wins?
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jonathanjoseph
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If the QB situation turns for the worse or we have some run of injuries at a position that we can't recover from, 5 wins.

Otherwise I expect between 6-8 wins. 9 wins is more likely than 3. I think a lot of people are going to lose their $hit when they see quality football on Thursday.
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JDTulane wrote:Depends on how real deal WF is. I think we open 2-2 and see where it goes from there.

If he is the real thing we go into the final games ~5-4 or 5-5 and hope for the best to finish 6-6 with a bowl game.

If he is as good as we HOPE for after years of ineptitude, 4-8.

If he's another dud we'll probably win our usual 2-3.

So what you're really saying is, the difference between CJ and WF is an increase from 3 wins to 4 wins, with an easier schedule? Sorry, I just can't accept that.
"That mantra is the only consistent thing that never needs to ever change for the rest of this program’s existence because that is all that matters & as long as that keeps occurring, everything will handle itself" -- Nick Anderson
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jonathanjoseph wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
The issue with Wake Forest isn't that they are projected to be a much better team - it's that they have had a significant amount of time to prepare for both the option and for a strong run game, and that factor makes them more dangerous than other teams on our schedule that are at the same competitive level since the other similar teams will not have had as long to prepare for our offense.

While I would like to not put up another season prediction until after the first game, that would be cheating. So, I'm going to go ahead and project a not-very-confident 5 wins over Southern, UMass, UConn, SMU, and ULL.
If I recall correctly, a 6 win season was something you repeatedly called "unrealistic".
6 wins wasn't and still isn't realistic. It's true that there is a one win difference between 5 wins and 6 wins, but, when you look at the schedule and consider all of the relevant factors, there is a difference between Southern/UMass/UConn/SMU/ULL and the other teams on our schedule. Also, as noted, we could easily win less than 5, as it wouldn't be surprising if we lost to one of those 5 teams (UConn/SMU/ULL in particular).
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Aberzombie1892 wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
The issue with Wake Forest isn't that they are projected to be a much better team - it's that they have had a significant amount of time to prepare for both the option and for a strong run game, and that factor makes them more dangerous than other teams on our schedule that are at the same competitive level since the other similar teams will not have had as long to prepare for our offense.

While I would like to not put up another season prediction until after the first game, that would be cheating. So, I'm going to go ahead and project a not-very-confident 5 wins over Southern, UMass, UConn, SMU, and ULL.
If I recall correctly, a 6 win season was something you repeatedly called "unrealistic".
6 wins wasn't and still isn't realistic. It's true that there is a one win difference between 5 wins and 6 wins, but, when you look at the schedule and consider all of the relevant factors, there is a difference between Southern/UMass/UConn/SMU/ULL and the other teams on our schedule. Also, as noted, we could easily win less than 5, as it wouldn't be surprising if we lost to one of those 5 teams (UConn/SMU/ULL in particular).
Bananas. You're trying to explain how a one-win difference is unrealistic.
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We won 3 games last yr and we have a watered down schedule this year with a much better coach and we have experience. We will be at least 8-4. I will play this at least 9 x's. https://youtu.be/GGXzlRoNtHU
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jonathanjoseph wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
The issue with Wake Forest isn't that they are projected to be a much better team - it's that they have had a significant amount of time to prepare for both the option and for a strong run game, and that factor makes them more dangerous than other teams on our schedule that are at the same competitive level since the other similar teams will not have had as long to prepare for our offense.

While I would like to not put up another season prediction until after the first game, that would be cheating. So, I'm going to go ahead and project a not-very-confident 5 wins over Southern, UMass, UConn, SMU, and ULL.
If I recall correctly, a 6 win season was something you repeatedly called "unrealistic".
6 wins wasn't and still isn't realistic. It's true that there is a one win difference between 5 wins and 6 wins, but, when you look at the schedule and consider all of the relevant factors, there is a difference between Southern/UMass/UConn/SMU/ULL and the other teams on our schedule. Also, as noted, we could easily win less than 5, as it wouldn't be surprising if we lost to one of those 5 teams (UConn/SMU/ULL in particular).
Bananas. You're trying to explain how a one-win difference is unrealistic.
The prediction had a "not-very-confident" qualifier, which means that I'm not confident that it will happen. Given what we know about the team and Winwave's practice updates, the team doesn't seem like a world beater, and, while the schedule isn't a Power 5 schedule, it's difficult enough that 6 wins would be difficult to achieve against it if the team can't mature quickly (OL/WR/QB), pass the ball or suffers from injuries (OL in particular). In terms of particular teams, there is notable jump in difficulty from Southern/UMass/SMU/ULL and maybe UConn to the other teams on our schedule. Tulane faces all of those teams at home except for UMass and UConn - UMass shouldn't be notably difficult, but UConn could be if their coach gets their offense together since their offense is solid. The rest of the schedule features teams that either feature great established coaches or new up and coming coaches that have more talent/depth on their rosters. Tulane has the coach, but our roster isn't where it needs experience/talentwise to beat Navy/Memphis/Houston/Temple/Tulsa/UCF/etc. Yes, UCF didn't win any games last year, but Tulane only won 3 and both programs changed coaches in the off season and instituted quality offensive schemes - the difference between Tulane and UCF this year is talent levels, and, because of that ad because we have to play @UCF, the pendulum swings in their favor for now.
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Why do people want to be on both sides of the fence? For example, UCF was 0-12 last season, and changed coaches. But you say they'll be better, because of their talent level. That "talent level" produced an 0-12 season. But, you say, their coach was terrible, and their "talent level" is much better than that. Yet for some reason, they won't give Tulane the same benefit of the doubt? We were 3-9 last season. Our coach was terrible. In my opinion our talent is much better than that. So with a new coach, new offensive schemes and discipline, why do they assume that we don't have the "talent level" to improve two wins, against a schedule that is easier than last year? Is that really such a stretch?
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8 wins could happen but we need good play from the QB position. I know GSU's QBs were not good at throwing the ball but they were athletic and excellent at running the offense.
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RobertM320 wrote:Why do people want to be on both sides of the fence? For example, UCF was 0-12 last season, and changed coaches. But you say they'll be better, because of their talent level. That "talent level" produced an 0-12 season. But, you say, their coach was terrible, and their "talent level" is much better than that. Yet for some reason, they won't give Tulane the same benefit of the doubt? We were 3-9 last season. Our coach was terrible. In my opinion our talent is much better than that. So with a new coach, new offensive schemes and discipline, why do they assume that we don't have the "talent level" to improve two wins, against a schedule that is easier than last year? Is that really such a stretch?
Is this directed at me? I predicted a two win improvement, but I certainly wouldn't mark UCF as an obvious win.
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RobertM320
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Not to you in particular, Aberzombie. But it seems everyone so willing to talk about how much other schools will be improved just because of a new coach and a new offense, and yet they don't give us credit for the same thing. I'm not saying our talent level is as good as UCF, I really have no idea. If our guys can pull off 3 wins with no coaching at all last season, why wouldn't a team with supposedly more talent at least be able to win one game? If UCF is so talented but was just undercoached, how can we be sure the exact same scenario doesn't apply to us? Everyone's expecting UCF to go from 0 wins, to 4-5 wins, but a two win increase is a stretch for us? That's what I don't get.
"That mantra is the only consistent thing that never needs to ever change for the rest of this program’s existence because that is all that matters & as long as that keeps occurring, everything will handle itself" -- Nick Anderson
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Guys and gals, get real. Seven, eight or nine wins ? You're setting yourselves up for suicide watches.

Relax and realize that 2016 is basically a throw away year for us. If we miraculously get to four wins be appreciative.

It took Cutliffe at Duke five seasons before he had a winning record. Even the likes of Saban and sMiles needed more than a season.

You're putting way too much pressure on your psyches and unattainable expectations on an apparently excellent coaching staff. What you're forgetting is just how poorly the prior administration recruited, coached and taught.
President Fitts , B of A , it's put up or forever hold your peace time . Make Tulane ATHLETICS relevant and top 30 again .
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nawlinspete wrote:Guys and gals, get real. Seven, eight or nine wins ? You're setting yourselves up for suicide watches.

Relax and realize that 2016 is basically a throw away year for us. If we miraculously get to four wins be appreciative.

It took Cutliffe at Duke five seasons before he had a winning record. Even the likes of Saban and sMiles needed more than a season.

You're putting way too much pressure on your psyches and unattainable expectations on an apparently excellent coaching staff. What you're forgetting is just how poorly the prior administration recruited, coached and taught.
Twelve. And. Oh.
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RobertM320 wrote:Not to you in particular, Aberzombie. But it seems everyone so willing to talk about how much other schools will be improved just because of a new coach and a new offense, and yet they don't give us credit for the same thing. I'm not saying our talent level is as good as UCF, I really have no idea. If our guys can pull off 3 wins with no coaching at all last season, why wouldn't a team with supposedly more talent at least be able to win one game? If UCF is so talented but was just undercoached, how can we be sure the exact same scenario doesn't apply to us? Everyone's expecting UCF to go from 0 wins, to 4-5 wins, but a two win increase is a stretch for us? That's what I don't get.
Ah I see. Even though it may not look like it, a lot of people are giving us credit for improvement over last year - it's just difficult to compare our improvement to our competitors since a lot of teams on our schedule will likely be improved varying amounts this season over last season (SMU/Tulsa/UCF/UConn/Wake Forest/Houston/ULL/Southern/UMass) and some teams will likely be the same or worse (Temple/Memphis/Navy). It's difficult for posters to project just how much teams like SMU/ULL/Wake Forest/UConn/UCF have improved compared to how much we improved, so posters have to guess, and, in order to guess, posters have to take into account various nuances for each opponent. For example, Wake Forest has had a long time to prepare for the option/strong run game, and, since Tulane opens its season @Wake Forest with a new coach, scheme, and QB, it wouldn't be surprising if things didn't go well as we hope they will. As another example, ULL was the closest FBS game to a sure win since it is a home game (unlike UMass, the second closest FBS game to a sure win), but then they added Anthony Jennings to their roster and he was named the starting QB - that makes ULL a lot more difficult to project until we see him in action. Personally, I predict that we will beat ULL, but, if Jennings is good, that game won't be nearly as easy as it would have been. SMU/UCF/UConn are all making strides as well.

Considering where Fritz is starting from, 5 wins against this schedule would be solid and show instant improvement - we all need to remember that last year, Tulane went 3-9 with wins over one FCS team, one FBS team that beat no one, and one FBS team with 2 wins (one over FCS and one over a 1-11 EMU team). Going from 3 wins over terrible teams to 5 wins with wins over at least 1 bowl team in year one is great. Even if we only win 4, it's still a nice improvement, as none of our opponents should go 0-12, 1-11, or 2-10 (not even UMass).
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jonathanjoseph wrote:
OUG wrote:
JDTulane wrote:Depends on how real deal WF is. I think we open 2-2 and see where it goes from there.

If he is the real thing we go into the final games ~5-4 or 5-5 and hope for the best to finish 6-6 with a bowl game.

If he is as good as we HOPE for after years of ineptitude, 4-8.

If he's another dud we'll probably win our usual 2-3.
So the line between him being an abject failure and him being as good as we hope is 3 wins to 4 wins?
Dickson Disease runs deep. Dannen needs to hire a shaman and a shrink.

Any team with a pulse should win 2 of the games on our schedule.
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RobertM320 wrote:
JDTulane wrote:Depends on how real deal WF is. I think we open 2-2 and see where it goes from there.

If he is the real thing we go into the final games ~5-4 or 5-5 and hope for the best to finish 6-6 with a bowl game.

If he is as good as we HOPE for after years of ineptitude, 4-8.

If he's another dud we'll probably win our usual 2-3.

So what you're really saying is, the difference between CJ and WF is an increase from 3 wins to 4 wins, with an easier schedule? Sorry, I just can't accept that.
The difference is one man in his first season and one man on his way out. CJ's bowl season was the easiest schedule we'd seen in what... 100 years?
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I'll go with a 7-5 record. 4-4 in conference.
Tulane is the University of Louisiana
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RobertM320
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JDTulane wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:
JDTulane wrote:Depends on how real deal WF is. I think we open 2-2 and see where it goes from there.

If he is the real thing we go into the final games ~5-4 or 5-5 and hope for the best to finish 6-6 with a bowl game.

If he is as good as we HOPE for after years of ineptitude, 4-8.

If he's another dud we'll probably win our usual 2-3.

So what you're really saying is, the difference between CJ and WF is an increase from 3 wins to 4 wins, with an easier schedule? Sorry, I just can't accept that.
The difference is one man in his first season and one man on his way out. CJ's bowl season was the easiest schedule we'd seen in what... 100 years?
How does that make any sense, JD? If anything, you'd expect the coach on his way out to perform worse than the new coach. So CJ, as bad as he was, without being able to coach a fly, much less a football team, was able to win three games, but Coach Fritz, one of the best coaches we've had here, who WILL coach up the same talent, is only going to win one more game? I don't buy that.
"That mantra is the only consistent thing that never needs to ever change for the rest of this program’s existence because that is all that matters & as long as that keeps occurring, everything will handle itself" -- Nick Anderson
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It doesnt make sense. Thats why im paid 0 dollars for my opinion! ;D
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JDTulane wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
OUG wrote:
JDTulane wrote:Depends on how real deal WF is. I think we open 2-2 and see where it goes from there.

If he is the real thing we go into the final games ~5-4 or 5-5 and hope for the best to finish 6-6 with a bowl game.

If he is as good as we HOPE for after years of ineptitude, 4-8.

If he's another dud we'll probably win our usual 2-3.
So the line between him being an abject failure and him being as good as we hope is 3 wins to 4 wins?
Dickson Disease runs deep. Dannen needs to hire a shaman and a shrink.

Any team with a pulse should win 2 of the games on our schedule.
And so the difference between "anything with a pulse" and if he's as good as we hope is only 2 additional wins?
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GreenLantern wrote:Nine more days before football!! I can't wait.

To amuse myself in this boring interim, I've made a few annual predictions.
  • Glen Cuiellette will earn the starting role for the Wake Forest game. Darius Bradwell sees limited action but shows great promise.
  • Tulane's defense easily handles Wake Forest. Final score, Greenies 25, WF 18. (18-25 Tooo-lane)
  • After coming from behind to beat Southern 17-14, Tulane stuns the football world by running off a string of victories over the next four opponents: Navy, ULaLa, UMass, and UCF.
  • With a record of 6-0, rumors abound that Tulane will be offered an invitation to join the Big 12
  • In a stunning and heartbreaking turnaround, Tulane loses five of the final six games: Memphis, Tulsa, Houston, Temple and UConn by a combined 15 points. The only second-half victory for the Greenies is a win over SMU by a score of 28-10.
  • Finishing the season at 6-5, Tulane receives an invitation to the Birmingham Bowl on Dec 28 where they match up against the Arkansas Razorbacks who also end their year with a disappointing 6-5 record. Arkansas prevails 27-17.
  • Houston and Cincinnati receive invites to the Big 12.
  • Nick Saban announces that he intends to retire at the end of the 2017 season.
  • I predict that most of my predictions will be wrong.

Great stuff!
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JDTulane wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
OUG wrote:
JDTulane wrote:Depends on how real deal WF is. I think we open 2-2 and see where it goes from there.

If he is the real thing we go into the final games ~5-4 or 5-5 and hope for the best to finish 6-6 with a bowl game.

If he is as good as we HOPE for after years of ineptitude, 4-8.

If he's another dud we'll probably win our usual 2-3.

So the line between him being an abject failure and him being as good as we hope is 3 wins to 4 wins?
Dickson Disease runs deep. Dannen needs to hire a shaman and a shrink.

Any team with a pulse should win 2 of the games on our schedule.
I don't know about that. EMU has a pulse, and I would pick Southern to beat them this season. I am not to sure about what we have just yet. We just have too many questions out there that won't be answered until week 1. I do agree with JJ when he makes points about what we have in our running game vs what GSU had under Fritz. I know GSU would have beaten us last season, but I do feel that Fritz is coming into a better back situation.
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jonathanjoseph wrote:
JDTulane wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
OUG wrote:
JDTulane wrote:Depends on how real deal WF is. I think we open 2-2 and see where it goes from there.

If he is the real thing we go into the final games ~5-4 or 5-5 and hope for the best to finish 6-6 with a bowl game.

If he is as good as we HOPE for after years of ineptitude, 4-8.

If he's another dud we'll probably win our usual 2-3.
So the line between him being an abject failure and him being as good as we hope is 3 wins to 4 wins?
Dickson Disease runs deep. Dannen needs to hire a shaman and a shrink.

Any team with a pulse should win 2 of the games on our schedule.
And so the difference between "anything with a pulse" and if he's as good as we hope is only 2 additional wins?
Our win/loss record this year won't necessarily tell us whether or not Fritz is the right coach or not; it will just tell us the extent of the hole he inherited.

What will tell us whether he can coach is 1) how much better and more competitive we look on the field; and 2) how much we improve in year 2.
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I can't make a prediction until I have seen this team. But on paper, I see a 4 to 5 win season. Contrast to what folks believe about CJ, I do feel like he left some weapons on the roster, and we have talent.
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I think our starters overall are pretty good and could win 6 or 7. But we have little depth, particularly along OL and DB. We start a QB who could never make CJ's 3 deep. None of the QBs were even moderate level recruits. Lots of questions that may not be resolved this season.
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