2016 Football Season W-L Prediction

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wave97
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Wave QB wrote:I can't make a prediction until I have seen this team. But on paper, I see a 4 to 5 win season. Contrast to what folks believe about CJ, I do feel like he left some weapons on the roster, and we have talent.
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OUG
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OUG wrote:This strikes me as a wildly optimistic prediction, and that is coming from an eternal optimist. I do think that in college football, as opposed to the NFL, coaching is a more determinative than personnel (personnel does matter a lot if you're comparing USC to Ball State, obviously). So I do think you can ignore a lot of the extremely negative predictions that are based entirely off CJ-coached games from last year and assuming we have no good players.

But there are substantial hurdles that this team will have to overcome all year long, and the cumulative effect of that will be felt. The biggest hurdle is depth, not just in terms of injury risk but also in our ability to prepare for games week in and week out without a legit scout team. That will put a real burden on the team that will be felt more and more as we get into the grind. The second big hurdle is lack of game experience at key positions. We have a fair amount of experience overall but the QB position is a big deal, and if we lose one of our safeties at any point that will also be a big deal. These are the generals of the offense and defense, and we will have issues with mistakes being made all year.

I prefer to categorize games rather than pick game by game. We don't know any more about most of these teams than they know about us.

Should wins: Southern, ULL (it's at home, if our seniors can't get up for this game then they should have quit in the spring)

Can wins: @Mass, Navy (d-line and QB losses, plus matchup issues with out D line), @UCF, SMU, Temple (this game will tell us a lot about the direction we are headed in), Memphis (expecting a bit of a reversion here.

Won't wins: @Houston, @UConn, @Tulsa, @Wake (Road wins are tough for inexperienced QBs and teams without a lot of depth. I only made exceptions for UCF and Mass because I think those teams are very very weak.


I just can't see us sweeping all the "Can Wins". I think 5 wins is more likely, with a much bigger step up in 2017.
I just revisited this in light of the game we played last night, and I don't think I'd change anything about it. The offense will get more effective with time, particularly in the red zone (We weren't fantastic between the 20's, but we weren't actually awful there either). I see the @Tulsa and @UConn games as frustrating losses along the lines of last night, because its just hard to put the whole package together on the road.

I still think we beat Southern next week. The Navy game is going to be an extremely pivotal game for this team's season. We are still not a mentally strong that handles adversity well, so I think we could spiral downwards if we have a rough game at home on 9/17.
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OUG wrote: Our win/loss record this year won't necessarily tell us whether or not Fritz is the right coach or not; it will just tell us the extent of the hole he inherited.

What will tell us whether he can coach is 1) how much better and more competitive we look on the field; and 2) how much we improve in year 2.
I totally agree, OUG. Yesterday's game may have left us with more questions than answers, but we didn't have the downright foolish mistakes and miscues that marked the CJ era. We're on the right path.
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How are we doing?
netshorty
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I'm now thinking 2... ;)
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GreenLantern
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Show Me wrote:How are we doing?
There's a lot of material here for a new thread: "Stupid Crap We Said", 2016 edition. Unfortunately, some of my predictions are the worst.
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tpstulane
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NOLABigSteve wrote:Until I see how the players and coaches perform that first game, I can't go with more than 4 wins. I'll gladly revise this, there are just too many unknowns for me.
Good call
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ajcalhoun
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netshorty wrote:I'm now thinking 2... ;)
2 wins? We already have 3. Or am I missing some kind of sarcasm?
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tpstulane
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I've picked every game right so far. Had us at 3-4 but picked us to beat SMU next week so that may be a tough one now. And have us going 4-8 overall.
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Aberzombie1892
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tpstulane wrote:I've picked every game right so far. Had us at 3-4 but picked us to beat SMU next week so that may be a tough one now. And have us going 4-8 overall.
I had us at 5 w/SMU win, but that seams unlikely now. 4-8 seems fairly likely at this point.
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msdos wrote:I was at the spring game and the article from the scrimmage Saturday didn't sound promising...

3-9
You are rolling so far.
DfromCT
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DfromCT wrote:I'm just repeating what I'm already on record as predicting for this season: Much improved but only a 4-8 record. I just think it's a whole lot of change that needs to be absorbed, understood, and allowed to grow. We might lose games early in the year that we'd win by season's end. Our schedule gets tougher as the calendar gets to November.

I hope I"m wrong and we're watching our Green Wave play sometime between Christmas and New Years. Or at the very least the second to last week of December.
We're actually about where I thought we'd be. I'm a little concerned that the offense has looked bad the last two games, perhaps taking a step backward. The passing game is actually worse than I thought it would be after 7 games, the running game isn't as good, but there's improvement across the board, and the D is better than I thought. I still think this is a 4 win team. We're not as talented as most other teams in the AAC, and Coach Fritz, while being a HUGE step up from CJ, needs to learn what it will take to win at this level. Many argued with me about this before the season. Fritz has never coached at the level of play seen in the AAC. This is not the SunBelt.
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Aberzombie1892
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DfromCT wrote:We're actually about where I thought we'd be. I'm a little concerned that the offense has looked bad the last two games, perhaps taking a step backward. The passing game is actually worse than I thought it would be after 7 games, the running game isn't as good, but there's improvement across the board, and the D is better than I thought. I still think this is a 4 win team. We're not as talented as most other teams in the AAC, and Coach Fritz, while being a HUGE step up from CJ, needs to learn what it will take to win at this level. Many argued with me about this before the season. Fritz has never coached at the level of play seen in the AAC. This is not the SunBelt.
I agree with this. While I was on the side of Fritz needing more time, I secretly hoped that he could pull it off. Now, with this season likely stalling at 5-7 at best (maybe Tulane will have the APR scores to go bowling?) and next season looking like its going to be rough, 2018 appears to be first year that Fritz can be judged solely by his performance. If I recall correctly, I believe that Phil Steele predicted that 2017 would be rough for Tulane just like 2016 prior to the 2016 season even starting. I didn't believe it at the time, but, given where the offense is now and given what all is being lost in the offseason, wow, that guy is good.
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DfromCT wrote:
DfromCT wrote:I'm just repeating what I'm already on record as predicting for this season: Much improved but only a 4-8 record. I just think it's a whole lot of change that needs to be absorbed, understood, and allowed to grow. We might lose games early in the year that we'd win by season's end. Our schedule gets tougher as the calendar gets to November.

I hope I"m wrong and we're watching our Green Wave play sometime between Christmas and New Years. Or at the very least the second to last week of December.
We're actually about where I thought we'd be. I'm a little concerned that the offense has looked bad the last two games, perhaps taking a step backward. The passing game is actually worse than I thought it would be after 7 games, the running game isn't as good, but there's improvement across the board, and the D is better than I thought. I still think this is a 4 win team. We're not as talented as most other teams in the AAC, and Coach Fritz, while being a HUGE step up from CJ, needs to learn what it will take to win at this level. Many argued with me about this before the season. Fritz has never coached at the level of play seen in the AAC. This is not the SunBelt.
Agreed. However, we aren't good enough to run the Sun Belt. If Fritz had GSU talent on this team, we would be closing in on being bowl eligible right about now.

Fritz is a winner. Next season, we will be in a bowl game. This year, we just need to hope Fritz can pull a rabbit out of his hat.
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Aberzombie1892
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Eaglewave wrote:Agreed. However, we aren't good enough to run the Sun Belt. If Fritz had GSU talent on this team, we would be closing in on being bowl eligible right about now.

Fritz is a winner. Next season, we will be in a bowl game. This year, we just need to hope Fritz can pull a rabbit out of his hat.
Eagle, I'm not sure about the bolded. Have you seen all of the starters on this team that won't be on the roster next year? That's not even taking into account that the schedule next year will be more difficult than it is this year:

2017 Schedule
@ECU
@Memphis
@Navy
@SMU
@Oklahoma
@FIU
Cincinnati
Houston
USF
Tulsa
Grambling State (currently 4-1 w/10 point loss @Arizona)
Army

Players leaving after this year:
Tanzel Smart
Nico Marley
Eric Thomas
Richard Allen
Josh Rounds
Lazedrick Thompson
Chris Taylor
Todd Jacquet
Larry Dace
Devon Breaux
(I'm hearing that Nickerson is leaving as well)

That 2017 schedule is no laughing matter for a team that is going to have massive regression on defense (w/o Smart, Marley, Allen, and Nickerson) and likely some regression on offense (w/o Taylor and Jacquet).

EDIT: to add Devon Breaux to the list of players that are leaving.
Last edited by Aberzombie1892 on Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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I think we will be a better team next year but the record might not indicate it. This is starting to remind me of the Larry Smith era. In year 2 of LS, we lost 4 games by a total of 10 points finishing 3-8. The next year we were 4-7 with losses coming at Maryland, #14 Pitt, at GT, at #20 Stanford, Ole Miss & LSU. It all paid dividends the following 3 years(not counting the bowl games) going 9-2 and then 7-4 & 6-5 under Vince Gibson.
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Pepper wrote:I think we will be a better team next year but the record might not indicate it. This is starting to remind me of the Larry Smith era. In year 2 of LS, we lost 4 games by a total of 10 points finishing 3-8. The next year we were 4-7 with losses coming at Maryland, #14 Pitt, at GT, at #20 Stanford, Ole Miss & LSU. It all paid dividends the following 3 years(not counting the bowl games) going 9-2 and then 7-4 & 6-5 under Vince Gibson.
This is the same line of thought I have. Smith's four seasons coincided with my four years in school. However, not sure that nowadays you can take four years to develop a program. Everyone is so into instant gratification these days.
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While there are similarities to Smith this staff will have to show they can recruit like Smith. He brought in talent from all over. Between the long time losing and the lack of facilities they have their work cut out for them. I hope they can pull it off.
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6-4-23:Now all of the mistakes Tulane has made finally catches up with them as they descend to CUSAAC.
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I must confess, my confidence in the system was badly shaken by the Tulsa game. Although I hoped for a break-even season this year, I anticipated losing a lot of games until Coach Fritz had recruited his own players. What I did not expect was the sort of undisciplined, men-vs-boys play that we saw on Saturday. All I need to give me hope is hard play, a disciplined effort, gradual improvement, and evidence that new recruits will further upgrade Tulane. If we continue to play sloppy-ball and are further humiliated by being pushed around in our own house on homecoming by SMU, I will be very, very disheartened.

No one loves Tulane more than me. However, the amount of support I am willing to give to the team is inversely related to the amount of suffering I endure as I watch the games. Last week was hard to bear.
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If we can tell what the weaknesses on this club, I'm sure the coaching staff is light years ahead on how to fix this. Give us just 5 JC's and it would make an enormous difference.
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We can get JUCO's and they are offering JUCO's so there is hope.
BAYWAVE&Sophandros are SPINELESS COWARDS
YOU NEED LEVERAGE TO BE PROACTIVE!
Small time facilities for small time programs
6-4-23:Now all of the mistakes Tulane has made finally catches up with them as they descend to CUSAAC.
DfromCT
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Pepper wrote:If we can tell what the weaknesses on this club, I'm sure the coaching staff is light years ahead on how to fix this. Give us just 5 JC's and it would make an enormous difference.
It's pretty easy to tell the weaknesses:

1. O-Line
2. QB
3. QB
4. O-Line
5. WR's

Next year we'll need help at D-Line and LB as well. But QB and O-Line is the most important areas that need to be addressed.
" If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that's a full day.." Jimmy V
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