DfromCT wrote:Every program in the country had significant losses. Those that are well coached will continue moving forward. I don't see the point of predicting wins against teams that were MUCH more talented than Tulane a year ago simply because they graduated key players. We stunk, and we graduated and lost to attrition at least as much as anyone in the conference. In other words, we're probably the least talented team in the conference, with a coach that MIGHT be on par with the top coaches in the conference. (I'd have to say at best he's 2nd or third behind the Houston and Navy coach.) Keep in mind he inherited a program at GSU that was already geared to run the offense he ran. Here he's making a COMPLETE change from CJ's (ineffective) offense.
In short we stunk last year, lost a lot to graduation and attrition, had a weak recruiting class, and are doing a 180 degree change in offensive philosophies. Why do people think we'll be so much better this year?
Getting back on topic: The issue I see is that the Big 12 MIGHT vote to add members at months end or over the summer, and I don't see anything written about Tulane trying to lobby the conference the same way that Houston, Memphis and others seem to be. Believe me, if Tulane was pushing hard for membership, the media would know about it. Frankly, I think Fitts and Dannen recognize that we're not a legitimate contender AT THIS POINT IN TIME. Hopefully in a couple of years we will be.
There's no doubt that virtually every member of the AAC wants to get into a P5. The best bet is to get the AAC recognized as the 6th "Power" conference. Right now we're still way behind our conference mates, despite some great things we bring to the table.
I agree about our roster being one of the worst in the AAC for 2016 - and that's with our 2016 recruiting class was ranked #9 in conference. In contrast to our roster, I expect big things from UCF since its roster is one of the best in the conference and the main reason that they had a horrible 2015 season is that the head coach couldn't handle being AD and head coach at the same time (who can?).
As for Big 12 expansion in regard to us, we probably haven't heard anything since there is nothing to say. It's true we bring academics and Louisiana recruiting, but that's it. All of the university created brochures about BYU, Colorado State, Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn, USF, and UCF reference a wide range of statistics that gauge areas that we generally are not competitive in (enrollment size and growth, number of living alumni, size of tv markets, performance highlights, alumni giving, NSF research/research per faculty member, athletic expenditures, etc.). There is a reason that we are not competitive in those areas - we are a mid-sized private institution located in a decent but not large tv market that doesn't have a recent history of success with athletics that suffered from both a poor leader and a natural disaster at the worst possible times which negatively impacted our ability to expand our research capabilities (we are ranked behind all of those programs in NSF research in 2014 except for BYU and Memphis) and our ability to build a competitive/sustainable athletics program, and those two issues (leadership and disaster) prevented us from landing in a high profile conference which has allowed our chief competitor to dominate the college athletic arena in not only our state, but also in our own city. Our best shot at the Big 12 was when the conference only had 8 members and -needed- to expand to 10+ in order to keep its TV contract together (survive), and rumors we were on the very short list thanks to OU and UT. In contrast to that survival based expansion (tv contract), this expansion appears to be about current money (tv network money, assuming expansion is coupled with a tv network and title game) and future money (next tv contract), and we just don't move the needle in that regard, at least not enough to rank us in front of those programs. We can aim for 2024-2025 and hope that the conferences do not consolidate further before then.
winwave wrote:
Doesn't change the fact that it's a misleading term. As for Fritz he has a long history of winning even before Ga. Southern. I'll remind you again that stats are for losers. You really think Memphis will have a QB anywhere near the level of Paxton? The examples can go on and on. The fact is every team on our schedule other than Houston appears to be very beatable this season. That's not saying we can just check them off as W's. It's saying that if Fritz is the coach we think he is he'll find a way to get 6 or more wins against this schedule.
I think that's where we disagree. You say that all of the teams are beatable aside from Houston, and in response to that, I would ask when was the last time we had a winning record against a Schedule stronger than our 2013 Schedule (2002)? Of course the teams can be beaten, but there is no indication other than a new coach that we will be able to do so in year 1.
To put us and Georgia Southern in perspective - Georgia Southern's 2014/2015/2016 recruiting classes were all ranked higher than ours, and, more importantly, none of those classes were ranked outside of the top 4 in the Sunbelt (the 2016 class was #1 in the Sunbelt according to 247). Basically, Georgia Southern had a good coach, but it had big time talent on its roster relative to its opposition and this makes the fact that the program only went 1-4 against bowl eligible teams in 2015 concerning (the losses included losses to Georgia State and Appalachian State). In contrast, none of our recruiting classes are above #8 in the AAC and none of our classes have been ranked above that even going back to 2012, and, given that we are installing a new coach, offense, and probably defense, we should be realistic about our expectations, especially for year 1. CJ may be been wrong about a lot of things, but he was right that there is a difference in talent between the CUSA vs. the AAC, let alone in the Sunbelt. In the Sunbelt and FCS, you can almost win just based off of having a good coach and maybe a good P5 transfer. That doesn't appear to be enough in the AAC and higher conferences.
(Memphis was more than just its quarterback, and, if it just finds a game manager QB for 2016, it will probably win 6 games. If it finds a solid QB, it will win more than that.)
