Big XII Expansion

[jonathanjoseph]

phpBB [audio]

I am just hoping the presidents want to be associated with a top 40 AAU school rather than a bunch of commuter schools, like Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, and UCF. Also, we are the best fit geographically and we have New Orleans and we are in SEC country (recruiting). Baseball is big in the Big 12 too and Texas just took our coach. Dannen is also friends with the commish. We have a shot, but we have to make a good push and play the political game. I hope Fitts has the right contacts.

Don't you think it's more important that the new invitees have 1. A fan base that will add rather than subtract from the conference? 2. Competitive teams and 3. facilities in place to rival other conference members? Or do you really feel that AAU status is more important than on-field success, fan base, etc?

This is the fan's idea of what's important, but not necessarily how AD and Presidents are thinking. For starters, a fan base is not a static thing. It can grow and it can shrink. Teams get better and get worse depending on how they are managed. Bowlsby understands that the underlying cause of those problems is gone. Bowlsby also understands that Big 12 membership would grow a fan base and is interested in the upside of a fan base and how good teams could get recruiting to a P5. It would definitely be better if we had better performance and a bigger fan base currently, but those categories aren't as much a "negative" as you think.

[jonathanjoseph]

Don't forget, a lot of these other programs only have the facilities they do BECAUSE of P5 money. Even if we have to take a 50% share for 10 years, estimates are that by 2024 each share of the TV money in the Big 12 will be about $43M. Facilities don't grow overnight. What' will be important to the Big 12 now will be whether there's a plan and timeline in place for those facilities.

I'd be shocked if whatever team joins the Big 12 (if any) gets close to 50% payout the first 5 years, and anywhere above 50% by year 10. I'm guessing it's going to be more like 10-20% the first couple of years, which would still be a big improvement from AAC/MWC payouts. The only possibility of a team getting close to a full share is if they leave a P5.

i can see 25% for 5 years and up to 50% for another five, but after 10 years a member should deserve a full share.

Agreed.

But I'm not positive the Big 12 is going to expand. They're exploring expansion, and may use the search as leverage with TV deals.

There's no option to renegotiate the media rights deal any time soon and the terms are pro rata anyway. This is not an exercise for negotiating leverage.

[RobertM320]

Correct. Current Big12 deal runs through 2024.

[DfromCT]

Correct. Current Big12 deal runs through 2024.

Agreed and well known.

But if you're ESPN, and the Big 12 is about to add two (or 4) schools that you don't think add value to the conference, wouldn't you rather re-negotiate than pay an additional $46 or $92 million for a product that you think is less attractive?

I'm not the first, or only one that thinks this is a possibility.

[HoustonWave]

I just spoke with an OU buddy, who is very active in the Sooner alum activities. He said the general view in Norman is that Boren's preferred list (in order) is as follows: Tulane, Air Force, BYU and Cincy. Hope he's right. In the question of whether the Big XII will add two or four teams, I'm starting to wonder if the decision to add four is the mercy act for W. Va.--which would definitely put Cincy in the 3 or 4 slot. If they decide to leave W Va. on their island, then we're probably looking at an expansion of two. Air Force is kind of a wild card--didn't they turn down the Big XII back in the days when the conference was trying to survive? I thought AF got invited before W Va.

[RobertM320]

So this would lead us to believe we definitely have Texas and Oklahoma in our favor. Hopefully that's enough to sway six of the other eight.

[DfromCT]

Funny, I think around the same time you were speaking to your OU buddy, I was speaking to two friends, one is a UT alum, the other an OU alum. They work together in the DFW area. The UT alumnus is VERY active in UT Athletics and Big 12 sports. He was shocked that I thought Tulane was even being considered. He laughed when I mentioned AAU status, geography, etc. He thinks Tulane is probably a small mark way down on a long list. The OU guy felt that OU would get out of the Big 12 if it added teams "like Tulane".

[RobertM320]

Funny, I think around the same time you were speaking to your OU buddy, I was speaking to two friends, one is a UT alum, the other an OU alum. They work together in the DFW area. The UT alumnus is VERY active in UT Athletics and Big 12 sports. He was shocked that I thought Tulane was even being considered. He laughed when I mentioned AAU status, geography, etc. He thinks Tulane is probably a small mark way down on a long list. The OU guy felt that OU would get out of the Big 12 if it added teams "like Tulane".

DfromCT, talk to your UT friend again. Ask him if he's willing to pay the expenses to send his volleyball team, softball team, swim team, baseball team and other minor sports to UConn every year. Don't forget to let him know that UConn's baseball field doesn't have lights. As for your OU guy, sounds like the typical fan that doesn't understand the workings of college athletic conferences.

[RobertM320]

Correct. Current Big12 deal runs through 2024.

Agreed and well known.

But if you're ESPN, and the Big 12 is about to add two (or 4) schools that you don't think add value to the conference, wouldn't you rather re-negotiate than pay an additional $46 or $92 million for a product that you think is less attractive?

I'm not the first, or only one that thinks this is a possibility.

Yes they'd rather renegotiate, but the Big12 wouldn't have to. They'd probably sit, knowing that by 2024 the media landscape will be so different there will be things we can't even think of now. No reason for Big12 to want a deal longer than that. So there's nothing ESPN really has to offer.

[DfromCT]

Funny, I think around the same time you were speaking to your OU buddy, I was speaking to two friends, one is a UT alum, the other an OU alum. They work together in the DFW area. The UT alumnus is VERY active in UT Athletics and Big 12 sports. He was shocked that I thought Tulane was even being considered. He laughed when I mentioned AAU status, geography, etc. He thinks Tulane is probably a small mark way down on a long list. The OU guy felt that OU would get out of the Big 12 if it added teams "like Tulane".

DfromCT, talk to your UT friend again. Ask him if he's willing to pay the expenses to send his volleyball team, softball team, swim team, baseball team and other minor sports to UConn every year. Don't forget to let him know that UConn's baseball field doesn't have lights. As for your OU guy, sounds like the typical fan that doesn't understand the workings of college athletic conferences.

They didn't bring up UConn at all. But they pointed out that there's at least a handful of FCS institutions that invest more in Athletics than Tulane. Specifically, he mentioned James Madison University, which is 60th in the country in Athletics Spending. (He is NOT advocating JMU to the Big 12, but thinks they'll move up to D1 in the next few years.) I brought up our recent $150 million investment in facilities and improvements, they were shocked our stadium alone didn't cost that much.

Just because I live in the fine state of Connecticut doesn't mean I'm pushing UConn. I know they're an geographic nightmare for the Big 12. But they're light years ahead of us in terms of fan base and competitiveness across the board.

[DfromCT]

Correct. Current Big12 deal runs through 2024.

Agreed and well known.

But if you're ESPN, and the Big 12 is about to add two (or 4) schools that you don't think add value to the conference, wouldn't you rather re-negotiate than pay an additional $46 or $92 million for a product that you think is less attractive?

I'm not the first, or only one that thinks this is a possibility.

Yes they'd rather renegotiate, but the Big12 wouldn't have to. They'd probably sit, knowing that by 2024 the media landscape will be so different there will be things we can't even think of now. No reason for Big12 to want a deal longer than that. So there's nothing ESPN really has to offer.

Except for the fact that the ACC, which didn't have to do anything either, just signed a new 20 year deal. If you don't get that Big 12 expansion is all about money, then we're having two entirely different conversations. The impetus for change is TV dollars, nothing more, nothing less.

[RobertM320]

But they're light years ahead of us in terms of fan base and competitiveness across the board.

And the education system in North Carolina is much better than Louisiana, but it means nothing if I'm shopping for a car. The Big 12 commissioner specifically said that no one out there checks all boxes, so their looking for schools with potential and high upside. UConn is already at their max, as are many of the others. My point being, those aren't the only things they're looking for. Glad your friends don't have a voice in this decision.

[DfromCT]

But they're light years ahead of us in terms of fan base and competitiveness across the board.

And the education system in North Carolina is much better than Louisiana, but it means nothing if I'm shopping for a car. The Big 12 commissioner specifically said that no one out there checks all boxes, so their looking for schools with potential and high upside. UConn is already at their max, as are many of the others. My point being, those aren't the only things they're looking for. Glad your friends don't have a voice in this decision.

The education system in MOST states is better than that of Louisiana. Well, except Mississippi!

My friends have no vote in the expansion, but do reflect what most college football fans are thinking. And they were shocked to learn that I think we have a prayer of getting the invite. They literally laughed at the suggestion. Suggesting that UConn is already at their max is ludicrous. They graduate 7 to 8,000/year, are a very good academic school, and football is starting to get back to where it was before the mistake of hiring Paul Pasqualoni. Many on this board downplay UConn's success; you cannot erase the fact that they beat Notre Dame in South Bend in 2009.

And by the way: it would be a tiny, tiny drop in the bucket to get UT's teams to UConn every other year. Their ATHLETICS operating budget is $183 million, second only to Texas A&M, which was $192 million.

http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/

[nawlinspete]

I am just hoping the presidents want to be associated with a top 40 AAU school rather than a bunch of commuter schools, like Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, and UCF. Also, we are the best fit geographically and we have New Orleans and we are in SEC country (recruiting). Baseball is big in the Big 12 too and Texas just took our coach. Dannen is also friends with the commish. We have a shot, but we have to make a good push and play the political game. I hope Fitts has the right contacts.

Beautifully written and powerfully true. I just do not believe Kansas, Texas or Oklahoma would ever want to be reliant on commuter schools like Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Memphis, or South Florida. I am sure the seven other BIG XII presidents also feel that any of those five debase the entire membership.


And Charlie welcome back. Your voice is missed.

[jonathanjoseph]

Funny, I think around the same time you were speaking to your OU buddy, I was speaking to two friends, one is a UT alum, the other an OU alum. They work together in the DFW area. The UT alumnus is VERY active in UT Athletics and Big 12 sports. He was shocked that I thought Tulane was even being considered. He laughed when I mentioned AAU status, geography, etc. He thinks Tulane is probably a small mark way down on a long list. The OU guy felt that OU would get out of the Big 12 if it added teams "like Tulane".

Well if he's "laughing" at AAU status and geography then he doesn't really know what he's talking about. You can argue how important they are relative to on field performance, but it's well understood that they are factors.

[jonathanjoseph]

Just because I live in the fine state of Connecticut doesn't mean I'm pushing UConn. I know they're an geographic nightmare for the Big 12. But they're light years ahead of us in terms of fan base and competitiveness across the board.

Lordy. UConn football was 6-7 with a Massey rating of 94 last year and they averaged <30K per game in attendance. UConn isn't light years ahead of anyone.

[winwave]

I am just hoping the presidents want to be associated with a top 40 AAU school rather than a bunch of commuter schools, like Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, and UCF. Also, we are the best fit geographically and we have New Orleans and we are in SEC country (recruiting). Baseball is big in the Big 12 too and Texas just took our coach. Dannen is also friends with the commish. We have a shot, but we have to make a good push and play the political game. I hope Fitts has the right contacts.

Don't you think it's more important that the new invitees have 1. A fan base that will add rather than subtract from the conference? 2. Competitive teams and 3. facilities in place to rival other conference members? Or do you really feel that AAU status is more important than on-field success, fan base, etc?

AAU definitely doesn't override fan base, competitiveness and facilities--AAU becomes a tie breaker if needed. But I don't think any of the candidates have an overwhelming advantage in these criteria. BYU might, but it also has some unique drawbacks. Ultimately, I don't see where any of the candidates have such an advantage in fan base, competitiveness or facilities to overcome the permanent travel hassles and costs that many of them represent. If the Big XII had a shot at some other P5 schools like Fla. State, Clemson or the like, then distance and travel would not be an issue. But if they are stuck with the G5 candidates currently being discussed, none of these programs overcome the travel hassles. For a Longhorn or Sooner fan, there isn't any difference in playing Tulane, UConn, Cincy or UCF--so it then comes down to, where would you prefer to go?

Exactly. Thank goodness they have already had the poor experience of taking W. Va. in. They are smart enough to learn from their mistakes.

[nawlinspete]

D from CT, we are laughing at you and your obvious disdain for Tulane and your obvious opposition to Tulane becoming a BIG XII member.

[jonathanjoseph]

But they're light years ahead of us in terms of fan base and competitiveness across the board.

And the education system in North Carolina is much better than Louisiana, but it means nothing if I'm shopping for a car. The Big 12 commissioner specifically said that no one out there checks all boxes, so their looking for schools with potential and high upside. UConn is already at their max, as are many of the others. My point being, those aren't the only things they're looking for. Glad your friends don't have a voice in this decision.

The education system in MOST states is better than that of Louisiana. Well, except Mississippi!

My friends have no vote in the expansion, but do reflect what most college football fans are thinking. And they were shocked to learn that I think we have a prayer of getting the invite. They literally laughed at the suggestion. Suggesting that UConn is already at their max is ludicrous. They graduate 7 to 8,000/year, are a very good academic school, and football is starting to get back to where it was before the mistake of hiring Paul Pasqualoni. Many on this board downplay UConn's success; you cannot erase the fact that they beat Notre Dame in South Bend in 2009.

And by the way: it would be a tiny, tiny drop in the bucket to get UT's teams to UConn every other year. Their ATHLETICS operating budget is $183 million, second only to Texas A&M, which was $192 million.

http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/

Yes they are reflecting what other FANS are thinking. Fans are not thinking about the same things that the Presidents and ADs are thinking about. That the reaction is "laughing" is the tell that they don't know what they are talking about. We are being discussed and for the obvious reasons, no matter how many are "laughing". Even if our chances were 20%, that's still far above the level of "laughable".

Meanwhile, your ability to acknowledge UConn's upside while completely refusing to believe that Tulane can improve is also pretty indicative. The Dickson Disease runs deep.

[winwave]

phpBB [audio]

I am just hoping the presidents want to be associated with a top 40 AAU school rather than a bunch of commuter schools, like Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, and UCF. Also, we are the best fit geographically and we have New Orleans and we are in SEC country (recruiting). Baseball is big in the Big 12 too and Texas just took our coach. Dannen is also friends with the commish. We have a shot, but we have to make a good push and play the political game. I hope Fitts has the right contacts.

Don't you think it's more important that the new invitees have 1. A fan base that will add rather than subtract from the conference? 2. Competitive teams and 3. facilities in place to rival other conference members? Or do you really feel that AAU status is more important than on-field success, fan base, etc?

This is the fan's idea of what's important, but not necessarily how AD and Presidents are thinking. For starters, a fan base is not a static thing. It can grow and it can shrink. Teams get better and get worse depending on how they are managed. Bowlsby understands that the underlying cause of those problems is gone. Bowlsby also understands that Big 12 membership would grow a fan base and is interested in the upside of a fan base and how good teams could get recruiting to a P5. It would definitely be better if we had better performance and a bigger fan base currently, but those categories aren't as much a "negative" as you think.

Yep. Of course we wish we had those things but their leaders have clearly talked in term of looking at potential and seeing a program grow w/the conference. Sure seemed like they were setting the table for us.

[jonathanjoseph]

D from CT, we are laughing at you and your obvious disdain for Tulane and your obvious opposition to Tulane becoming a BIG XII member.

Dickson Disease.

"We are who we are."

[Wave755]

The education system in MOST states is better than that of Louisiana. Well, except Mississippi!

More than a little bit of "Yankee Bigotry" from D? A couple of years ago for this forum D also began to "pontificate" against the Louisiana Civil Code; D doesn't know a damn thing either about the Louisiana Civil Code.

Louisiana is contiguous to Texas and in the same time zone. Tulane has a long history for athletics with UT, the premiere university of the Big 12. Colorado is contiguous to Kansas and Oklahoma; many in the Big 12 still lament inviting West Virginia for geographical reasons alone. Tulane and CSU make sense for the Big 12, UCONN doesn't.

[nawlinspete]

D from CT is a troll.

[jonathanjoseph]

phpBB [audio]

I am just hoping the presidents want to be associated with a top 40 AAU school rather than a bunch of commuter schools, like Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, and UCF. Also, we are the best fit geographically and we have New Orleans and we are in SEC country (recruiting). Baseball is big in the Big 12 too and Texas just took our coach. Dannen is also friends with the commish. We have a shot, but we have to make a good push and play the political game. I hope Fitts has the right contacts.

Don't you think it's more important that the new invitees have 1. A fan base that will add rather than subtract from the conference? 2. Competitive teams and 3. facilities in place to rival other conference members? Or do you really feel that AAU status is more important than on-field success, fan base, etc?

This is the fan's idea of what's important, but not necessarily how AD and Presidents are thinking. For starters, a fan base is not a static thing. It can grow and it can shrink. Teams get better and get worse depending on how they are managed. Bowlsby understands that the underlying cause of those problems is gone. Bowlsby also understands that Big 12 membership would grow a fan base and is interested in the upside of a fan base and how good teams could get recruiting to a P5. It would definitely be better if we had better performance and a bigger fan base currently, but those categories aren't as much a "negative" as you think.

Yep. Of course we wish we had those things but their leaders have clearly talked in term of looking at potential and seeing a program grow w/the conference. Sure seemed like they were setting the table for us.

It certainly seems that way, not to mention it's the smart way to do business. How a program fares with G5 branding and G5 money is mostly irrelevant to how a program could fare with P5 branding and P5 money.

That being the case, Tulane and CSU look like a very attractive pair bringing NOLA and Denver.

[2ndGenWave]

All of these schools have the same level of success as Tulane in football with the exception of Cincinnati and possibly Houston. The same can be said of basketball except for Memphis and Cincinnati. So, Cincinnati looks like a shoe in. Everyone else is in a dog fight for that other spot and Tulane brings everything but success on the field. But, isn't Tulane's problem a lack of funding and a little brother syndrome to LSU? Would the Big 12 not solve those problems? I think Tulane is being mentioned in articles as an intriguing choice, which is better than I'd have ever hoped for a year ago.