NSD 2019

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winwave
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Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:31 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:49 pm
winwave wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:52 pm

There were more independents then than now but the great majority of teams were in conferences. D and I are saying the same thing- that we can be dominant in the G5. Due to the conference were in that gives a good chance to be the top G5 and grab the NY6 Bowl Bid that goes to that team every year. I've never said we have to have top 25-30 classes to get there. Get it consistently in the 50's-60's and you can do it. That's actually the advantage we have over lower level P5 schools in that they'll never be in a NY6 Bowl while we have a legit shot to do that.
There were alot more independents that you realize, but that's irrelevant. I do agree with what you just posted. There is no doubt a top tier AAC team has a better shot at a NY6 bowl than the lower P5s do. But if schools like Cincy, Houston and UCF can't get their recruiting into the 50s-60s consistently, how can we do it? What huge advantage do we have over them that would make better recruits choose us over them (assuming we're winning consistently like they do)?
As to what I said there is what I have been saying all along. There is the prestige of being a private school. That brings a national reach that the G5's were competing with and the lower P5's don't have. It's something we haven't utilized like ND, Stanford or a USC have. I think WF is getting it. Most likely because he realizes that what the local coaches are trying to push on us are the seconds and thirds and he has stated publicly several times now that that's not acceptable. It's led him to look elsewhere and as time goes on I'm hopeful he will utilize that national reach to its fullest. Then there's NOLA. It's a hot place after Katrina. Lot better than living in some podunk backwoods places those other schools offer.


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RobertM320
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:21 am

You know this. I know this. We all know this. But have you tried recently to convince an 18 year old kid of this?
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winwave
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:58 am

What I'm saying is I don't think our staffs have tried that route hard enough. I think this one may be about to.
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golfnut69
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:03 am

winwave...ya ever been to StarkVegas, Stillwater, Norman, Lubbock, Waco, Oxford, Fayetteville ?
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:56 am

golfnut69 wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:03 am
winwave...ya ever been to StarkVegas, Stillwater, Norman, Lubbock, Waco, Oxford, Fayetteville ?
Yeah it's a little complicated.

Boise State is the only G5 that has consistently signed classes in the 50s and 60s since 2011, and part of the reason for that has been its consistent success, however, everyone knows that Boise State would not be able to achieve its same heights within the AAC since their are more high end G5 teams (on the field, recruiting, budgets, etc.) in the the AAC versus the MWC. That being said, it peaked in the 50s even though it consistently won double digit games (lost 23 games total in the 2011-2018 period) and had a history of doing even better than that on the field during the 2002-2010 period (lost 12 games total from 2002-2010).

If a program that has lost 35 games from 2002-2018 with high profile P5 wins has its recruiting peaking in the 50s, consistently recruiting at a high level by G5 standards is not quite as easy it can be made out to be.

It's difficult for Tulane to play the role of Stanford since Stanford: enjoys the resources and recognition of being in a P5 and is universally considered to be elite academically (i.e. only offering recruits with at least a 25 on the ACT). It would be difficult for Tulane to emulate that approach since it does not have those advantages, and the lack of those advantages would lead to Tulane spending a lot of resources chasing great players just to have those players sign somewhere else. That would not be unlike what Mike Gundy of Oklahoma State said about why he doesn't chase elite players - they end up going somewhere else.

Basically, if emulating Stanford was easy, Rice wouldn't have the 110 ranked recruiting class.

All that being said, there is no easy or obvious solution here for consistently recruiting at a high level by G5 standards, but there is enough to say that expecting a G5 to consistently recruit in 50s/60s is a lot more more difficult than it sounds.
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:28 am

One of the factors that works against ALL G5 schools is that the ratings agencies seem to base their ratings by looking at who has offered a recruit. If Tulane, for example, is going after a recruit that holds multiple P5 offers, that recruit is going to get a higher rating than those that don't have those offers. The higher ranked recruits tend to stick to P5 schools. It's extremely rare that a 5 star recruit goes to a G5, and still very rare for 4 star recruits to choose a G5 (though it does happen.)

So there's a bit of chicken vs. egg dilemma going on. The recruits get ranked higher and then choose P5 schools. Those that don't have P5 offers don't get ranked as high and "settle" for a G5. That may or may not have anything to do with their ability on the gridiron.

Which is why all of this arguing over fractions of a point in a recruiting class ranking I think is more to fill our time in the offseason than it is to actually project how good or bad the recruiting class really is. It's much more important, in my opinion to address needs with your class than it is to gain a .062 of a point on the overall ranking of the class.
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winwave
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:16 pm

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:56 am
golfnut69 wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:03 am
winwave...ya ever been to StarkVegas, Stillwater, Norman, Lubbock, Waco, Oxford, Fayetteville ?
Yeah it's a little complicated.

Boise State is the only G5 that has consistently signed classes in the 50s and 60s since 2011, and part of the reason for that has been its consistent success, however, everyone knows that Boise State would not be able to achieve its same heights within the AAC since their are more high end G5 teams (on the field, recruiting, budgets, etc.) in the the AAC versus the MWC. That being said, it peaked in the 50s even though it consistently won double digit games (lost 23 games total in the 2011-2018 period) and had a history of doing even better than that on the field during the 2002-2010 period (lost 12 games total from 2002-2010).

If a program that has lost 35 games from 2002-2018 with high profile P5 wins has its recruiting peaking in the 50s, consistently recruiting at a high level by G5 standards is not quite as easy it can be made out to be.

It's difficult for Tulane to play the role of Stanford since Stanford: enjoys the resources and recognition of being in a P5 and is universally considered to be elite academically (i.e. only offering recruits with at least a 25 on the ACT). It would be difficult for Tulane to emulate that approach since it does not have those advantages, and the lack of those advantages would lead to Tulane spending a lot of resources chasing great players just to have those players sign somewhere else. That would not be unlike what Mike Gundy of Oklahoma State said about why he doesn't chase elite players - they end up going somewhere else.

Basically, if emulating Stanford was easy, Rice wouldn't have the 110 ranked recruiting class.

All that being said, there is no easy or obvious solution here for consistently recruiting at a high level by G5 standards, but there is enough to say that expecting a G5 to consistently recruit in 50s/60s is a lot more more difficult than it sounds.
I didn't say we could have the same success as Stanford. . I am talking about the national reach a private like Tulane has as being something most other G5's don't have. Thus were not limited to local recruiting. It's an advantage that I think this staff is smart enough to utilize. I think it can be used to reach the levels Boise has. We generally play a better schedule with better exposure. Start winning at the level they did and throw in coming to NOLA versus Boise and it can be achieved. I'd also note that unlike Stanford Tulane accepts athletes at the NCAA minimums.
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Wave755
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:45 pm

+1, we can and probably will rise to the very top for G5s but no higher for football recruiting. We were well positioned for the BCS in 1998 but Scott Cowen was our president. Thanks to Cowen the BCS train that would eventually become the P5, unlike for Louisville and TCU, has left us at the station. G5 status will prevent us from ever going higher than the mid-50s for football recruiting.
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RobertM320
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:48 pm

I love how you say that, win. You just throw it out there: "Start winning at the level Boise State did". If it was that easy, don't you think G5s like Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and others would do it? Boise State's track record as far as winning is several standard deviations above every other G5 program. In the last 20 years, they've won 10+ games SIXTEEN TIMES, and the other 4 seasons they won 9,9,9 and 8. The next highest G5 hasn't won 10+ games during those 20 years more than a half dozen times.
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winwave
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:24 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:48 pm
I love how you say that, win. You just throw it out there: "Start winning at the level Boise State did". If it was that easy, don't you think G5s like Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and others would do it? Boise State's track record as far as winning is several standard deviations above every other G5 program. In the last 20 years, they've won 10+ games SIXTEEN TIMES, and the other 4 seasons they won 9,9,9 and 8. The next highest G5 hasn't won 10+ games during those 20 years more than a half dozen times.
Sorry you're so sensitive. I guess we have different beliefs as to what the program can be. I've pointed out the advantage I think we have on those schools. we'll have to agree to disagree.
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Bicoastalwave
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:03 pm

If we win 10+ games 3 years in a row: Yulman will be packed, there will be clamoring for Yulman expansion, we will be in the good position for conference expansion, the angry wave will become the coolest mascot in ncaa and widely acklowdged as such, Tulane will move into the 30’s of US News World top 50 schools, we will put LA tech in the rear view stealing their recruits as well as ULL’s at will and even pick off an occasional LSU recruit. If these three 10 win seasons correlate with an LSU downswing then things get really interesting . . . . It’s fun to dream. I do believe it is possible for us to stay at the top of the conference, if we can get out of our own way and start a winning culture fans will return and athletes will choose us over these comparitevly garbage college towns.
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RobertM320
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:08 pm

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:03 pm
If we win 10+ games 3 years in a row: Yulman will be packed, there will be clamoring for Yulman expansion, we will be in the good position for conference expansion, the angry wave will become the coolest mascot in ncaa and widely acklowdged as such, Tulane will move into the 30’s of US News World top 50 schools, we will put LA tech in the rear view stealing their recruits as well as ULL’s at will and even pick off an occasional LSU recruit. If these three 10 win seasons correlate with an LSU downswing then things get really interesting . . . . It’s fun to dream. I do believe it is possible for us to stay at the top of the conference, if we can get out of our own way and start a winning culture fans will return and athletes will choose us over these comparitevly garbage college towns.
This I can agree with. Its ok to dream, and its ok to have lofty goals. I've never said we shouldn't. But to think we're just going to jump right up into the haves because of a few winning seasons like winwave does just isn't realistic. The longer we're smeared by the P5/G5 branding, the harder its going to be. We have to face that reality.

Now, is there a way to change that narrative? Yes, but its going to require all the G5 schools to come together and push a lawsuit against the NCAA and the P5. Its not going to happen if we have to play by their rules.
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winwave
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:54 pm

What I've said is that we can be among the Haves of the G5. Bicoastal agrees and others do too. It is realistic whether you like it or not.
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RobertM320
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:33 pm

winwave wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:54 pm
What I've said is that we can be among the Haves of the G5. Bicoastal agrees and others do too. It is realistic whether you like it or not.
And I said I agree with that as well. Among the haves of the G5, is not the same as saying we should be the TOP of the G5, which you imply when you say being in the 50-60 range in recruiting all the time. That would pretty much put us at the TOP of G5.
"ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! HANG EM AND BANG EM! HANG EM AND BANG EM!"-- Todd Graffagnini
winwave
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:37 pm

I consider the Haves being the few top programs in the G5.
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cajunfanatico
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:30 pm

An honest question. Are you guys absolutely convinced that Willy Fritz is the guy to get you to the next level? He'll have to win 9 games next year to break .500 by the end of the regular season, his 4th.
ajcalhoun: Nobody here gives a flying fuck about UL-L and the Sunbelt Conference.
Bicoastalwave
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:17 pm

cajunfanatico wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:30 pm
An honest question. Are you guys absolutely convinced that Willy Fritz is the guy to get you to the next level? He'll have to win 9 games next year to break .500 by the end of the regular season, his 4th.
Yes.
I know of very few absolutes, but as far as being confident or even wagering a bet - I would do so on Fritz making us competitive for a conference championship and 8 or more wins.
Last edited by Bicoastalwave on Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:57 pm

winwave wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:24 pm
RobertM320 wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:48 pm
I love how you say that, win. You just throw it out there: "Start winning at the level Boise State did". If it was that easy, don't you think G5s like Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and others would do it? Boise State's track record as far as winning is several standard deviations above every other G5 program. In the last 20 years, they've won 10+ games SIXTEEN TIMES, and the other 4 seasons they won 9,9,9 and 8. The next highest G5 hasn't won 10+ games during those 20 years more than a half dozen times.
Sorry you're so sensitive. I guess we have different beliefs as to what the program can be. I've pointed out the advantage I think we have on those schools. we'll have to agree to disagree.
We are on a bowl game winning streak! Hopefully we can sell that nationaly for next year’s class.
golfnut69
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Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:03 am

Bicoastalwave wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:17 pm
cajunfanatico wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:30 pm
An honest question. Are you guys absolutely convinced that Willy Fritz is the guy to get you to the next level? He'll have to win 9 games next year to break .500 by the end of the regular season, his 4th.
Yes.
I know of very few absolutes, but as far as being confident or even wagering a bet - I would do so on Fritz making us competitive for a conference championship and 8 or more wins.
considering the "program" he took over, and the coaching changes made, he seems to have Tulane pointed in the correct direction.... unlike Columbus who found America by mistake.... one more thing, only a terrible officials call, kept Tulane from bowling two consecutive years. Do I think Bob Stoops, or Nick Saban would have been a better choices, we will never know
Last edited by golfnut69 on Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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winwave
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Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:31 am

mbawavefan12 wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:57 pm
winwave wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:24 pm
RobertM320 wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:48 pm
I love how you say that, win. You just throw it out there: "Start winning at the level Boise State did". If it was that easy, don't you think G5s like Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and others would do it? Boise State's track record as far as winning is several standard deviations above every other G5 program. In the last 20 years, they've won 10+ games SIXTEEN TIMES, and the other 4 seasons they won 9,9,9 and 8. The next highest G5 hasn't won 10+ games during those 20 years more than a half dozen times.
Sorry you're so sensitive. I guess we have different beliefs as to what the program can be. I've pointed out the advantage I think we have on those schools. we'll have to agree to disagree.
We are on a bowl game winning streak! Hopefully we can sell that nationaly for next year’s class.
Hopefully we can. Think about it. Last year we didn't even have that one Bowl game winning streak to sell and we finished #65. What should sell them is the new direction of our offense to go with our defense. . It sort of reminds one of the 1979 season when many wanted Smith fired after year three. He brought Infante back and we made that big jump. As has been discussed previously here win the west this year and the AAC next year and you have a lot to sell. If you want to stay beat down by the past people would understand but the opportunity is right there in front of us.
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AugWave
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Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:12 am

cajunfanatico wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:30 pm
An honest question. Are you guys absolutely convinced that Willy Fritz is the guy to get you to the next level? He'll have to win 9 games next year to break .500 by the end of the regular season, his 4th.
Our program was in pure shambles when he took over. We actually got some respect from big media outlets this year. We got shafted last year, should've went to AND won a bowl game in back to back seasons in his first 3 years after taking over a lopsided, horribly managed roster. .

So, yes.
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Wave755
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Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:41 am

cajunfanatico wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:30 pm
An honest question. Are you guys absolutely convinced that Willy Fritz is the guy to get you to the next level? He'll have to win 9 games next year to break .500 by the end of the regular season, his 4th.
Yes, Cajun Troll, we are.
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Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:46 am

cajunfanatico wrote:
Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:30 pm
An honest question. Are you guys absolutely convinced that Willy Fritz is the guy to get you to the next level? He'll have to win 9 games next year to break .500 by the end of the regular season, his 4th.
What do you suppose our record be if we played in the Sun Belt for the past three years? Coach Fritz is the "guy". Our dilemma is how well we hire if he chooses to leave.
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