Profoundwizard wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:01 pm
DfromCT wrote: ↑Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:47 pm
If nothing else, this post should get merged into the 36 or 37 page Geurry Smith thread we've got.
UCF was not dominated. And the best player for either team was on crutches on the UCF sideline. Similar to last year's game versus Auburn, Auburn out gained and had longer time of possession. What was missing this year? Big plays from a big time player named Milton McKenzie, who should have been AAC player of the year two years in a row.
It was not at all similar to last years game against Auburn. Auburn may have had more yards but they ran more plays. UCF gained almost a full yard per play more than Auburn. UCF also won the turnover battle 3-1. Central Florida's win expectancy against Auburn based on the statistics was 75%, you could say they kind of dominated that game and should have won by more.
Yes, the "WIN EXPECTANCY" was affected by UCF having one of the best QB's in the NCAA at the helm last year versus a very good Auburn team, and not having him available this year versus a pretty good LSU squad. That's why it's such a bogus stat, it looks at the stats generated by play AFTER THE FACT.
Did you watch 100% of both games? I did. And I have them on DVR. In both games UCF came out hot, then cooled off and gave up the lead. As others pointed out, had LSU not gotten the benefit of a bogus unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, they might well have been down 21-3. Different game. But that didn't happen. "Ifs and buts"!
What also didn't happen was having a veteran QB lead UCF back from a deficit after the early success. McKenzie may never play again, or he might never play up to his potential again. But the QB that took the helm versus LSU wasn't good enough to hold the jock strap of the one that took the helm for UCF versus Auburn. Not even close. Bogus stat or not.
All good things come to an end. LSU ended UCF's winning streak, which was, by a WIDE MARGIN, the longest in FBS. And it included a win over a team that beat the two "finalists" in the 2017 MNC game the same year Auburn beat both Georgia and Alabama.
Tip of the hat to the Tigers. But I still say UCF has more than a fighters chance with a healthy Milton McKenzie.