Guerry Smith

Discuss anything else athletic or non-athletic related that doesn't belong on the main Tulane athletics forum.
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RobertM320 wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:04 am
winwave wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:57 am Simple answer. The winner would be easy to pick but that doesn't equate to domination which is what you claim happened. Like I said stats are for losers. They only stat that counts is the final score and they lost by 8.
I agree. All anyone had to do was watch the game. If Mack doesn't over thrown a wide open receiver in the end zone after the muffed punt, the score would have been 34-28 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. At that point, its anyone's game. How that can be considered domination is beyond me. I mean, as Tulane fans how many times have we won the stats battle only to lose the game? We should know stats mean nothing.
And LSU dropped a wide open TD as well. We can do this all day.
The stats actually do mean something. It’s as simple as the explanation I gave in my last post. If you can look at the box score and more accurately predict which team won the game than without looking at a box score, then they obviously mean something. Obviously there are other things involved, sometimes the team that dominates in yards per play loses, but that doesn’t mean that the stat is irrelevant.


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HoustonWave wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:10 am
tpstulane wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:26 pm
wavemania wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:24 pm if anyone really watched the game, UCF was up 14-3 and just stopped LSU on a 4th down play, only to have the ref throw a flag for the DL on UCF for unsportsmanlike conduct, giving LSU a first down. This changed the whole game. UCF would have scored again and put LSU in a big hole. Instead, LSU gets the ball back and promptly scores. The mojo changed right there
Ref made the wrong call there. Should have been 5 yards delay of game. The kid wasn’t displaying unsportsmanlike conduct.
There was a lot of bad officiating throughout all the bowl games. Refs had a tendency to try to bail out the favorites, when they were struggling. The UCF/LSU game typified this tendency.
So you missed the obvious holding/DPI by UCF on the pick 6?
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Profoundwizard wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:19 am
HoustonWave wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:10 am
tpstulane wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:26 pm
wavemania wrote: Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:24 pm if anyone really watched the game, UCF was up 14-3 and just stopped LSU on a 4th down play, only to have the ref throw a flag for the DL on UCF for unsportsmanlike conduct, giving LSU a first down. This changed the whole game. UCF would have scored again and put LSU in a big hole. Instead, LSU gets the ball back and promptly scores. The mojo changed right there
Ref made the wrong call there. Should have been 5 yards delay of game. The kid wasn’t displaying unsportsmanlike conduct.
There was a lot of bad officiating throughout all the bowl games. Refs had a tendency to try to bail out the favorites, when they were struggling. The UCF/LSU game typified this tendency.
So you missed the obvious holding/DPI by UCF on the pick 6?
Yes I did. And you obviously missed many bogus interference calls and missed holdings calls--the vast majority of which were called for the benefit of the favored teams.
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There's this thing called postgame success rate: you can read about it at the bottom of this link but more or less it tells you what percentage chance each team would have to win the game based on the stats that occurred. It gives LSU a 99% chance to win that game over UCF based on the stats.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
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RobertM320 wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:04 am
winwave wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:57 am Simple answer. The winner would be easy to pick but that doesn't equate to domination which is what you claim happened. Like I said stats are for losers. They only stat that counts is the final score and they lost by 8.
I agree. All anyone had to do was watch the game. If Mack doesn't over thrown a wide open receiver in the end zone after the muffed punt, the score would have been 34-28 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. At that point, its anyone's game. How that can be considered domination is beyond me. I mean, as Tulane fans how many times have we won the stats battle only to lose the game? We should know stats mean nothing.
Plus had UCF recovered the onside kick laying right there on the ground who knows. I wouldn’t call that a domination.
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tpstulane wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:31 am
RobertM320 wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:04 am
winwave wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:57 am Simple answer. The winner would be easy to pick but that doesn't equate to domination which is what you claim happened. Like I said stats are for losers. They only stat that counts is the final score and they lost by 8.
I agree. All anyone had to do was watch the game. If Mack doesn't over thrown a wide open receiver in the end zone after the muffed punt, the score would have been 34-28 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. At that point, its anyone's game. How that can be considered domination is beyond me. I mean, as Tulane fans how many times have we won the stats battle only to lose the game? We should know stats mean nothing.
Plus had UCF recovered the onside kick laying right there on the ground who knows. I wouldn’t call that a domination.
And if LSU doesn't muff that punt, they might win by 23. Who knows.
Sometimes teams win games that they really have no business winning. If UCF had won that would have been the case here.
LSU had no business beating Auburn earlier this year and yet they did. Flukes happen.
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bananax07 wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:38 am why does this thread exist? because feelings were hurt on Twitter? the internet is no place to be overly sensitive

Are you still drinking Egg Nog? Why does ANY thread on this Board exist? Not a matter of "hurt feelings" just giving an opinion to a PAID SPORTSWRITER and told I should be "embarrassed" for giving that opinion.

It's sad that the LEAD SPORTS PERSON covering Tulane Athletics is a GLORIFIED administrator of a Fan Chat Board. If that is the qualification to write for the Advocate, then where do I apply???

Lighten up Francis!

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Profoundwizard wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:31 am There's this thing called postgame success rate: you can read about it at the bottom of this link but more or less it tells you what percentage chance each team would have to win the game based on the stats that occurred. It gives LSU a 99% chance to win that game over UCF based on the stats.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
You've changed your argument to being about winning versus domination. UCF was not dominated.
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If nothing else, this post should get merged into the 36 or 37 page Geurry Smith thread we've got.

UCF was not dominated. And the best player for either team was on crutches on the UCF sideline. Similar to last year's game versus Auburn, Auburn out gained and had longer time of possession. What was missing this year? Big plays from a big time player named Milton McKenzie, who should have been AAC player of the year two years in a row.
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winwave wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:44 pm
Profoundwizard wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:31 am There's this thing called postgame success rate: you can read about it at the bottom of this link but more or less it tells you what percentage chance each team would have to win the game based on the stats that occurred. It gives LSU a 99% chance to win that game over UCF based on the stats.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
You've changed your argument to being about winning versus domination. UCF was not dominated.
Not really
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Really.
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DfromCT wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:47 pm If nothing else, this post should get merged into the 36 or 37 page Geurry Smith thread we've got.

UCF was not dominated. And the best player for either team was on crutches on the UCF sideline. Similar to last year's game versus Auburn, Auburn out gained and had longer time of possession. What was missing this year? Big plays from a big time player named Milton McKenzie, who should have been AAC player of the year two years in a row.
It was not at all similar to last years game against Auburn. Auburn may have had more yards but they ran more plays. UCF gained almost a full yard per play more than Auburn. UCF also won the turnover battle 3-1. Central Florida's win expectancy against Auburn based on the statistics was 75%, you could say they kind of dominated that game and should have won by more.
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Profoundwizard wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:01 pm
DfromCT wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:47 pm If nothing else, this post should get merged into the 36 or 37 page Geurry Smith thread we've got.

UCF was not dominated. And the best player for either team was on crutches on the UCF sideline. Similar to last year's game versus Auburn, Auburn out gained and had longer time of possession. What was missing this year? Big plays from a big time player named Milton McKenzie, who should have been AAC player of the year two years in a row.
It was not at all similar to last years game against Auburn. Auburn may have had more yards but they ran more plays. UCF gained almost a full yard per play more than Auburn. UCF also won the turnover battle 3-1. Central Florida's win expectancy against Auburn based on the statistics was 75%, you could say they kind of dominated that game and should have won by more.
Yes, the "WIN EXPECTANCY" was affected by UCF having one of the best QB's in the NCAA at the helm last year versus a very good Auburn team, and not having him available this year versus a pretty good LSU squad. That's why it's such a bogus stat, it looks at the stats generated by play AFTER THE FACT.

Did you watch 100% of both games? I did. And I have them on DVR. In both games UCF came out hot, then cooled off and gave up the lead. As others pointed out, had LSU not gotten the benefit of a bogus unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, they might well have been down 21-3. Different game. But that didn't happen. "Ifs and buts"!

What also didn't happen was having a veteran QB lead UCF back from a deficit after the early success. McKenzie may never play again, or he might never play up to his potential again. But the QB that took the helm versus LSU wasn't good enough to hold the jock strap of the one that took the helm for UCF versus Auburn. Not even close. Bogus stat or not.

All good things come to an end. LSU ended UCF's winning streak, which was, by a WIDE MARGIN, the longest in FBS. And it included a win over a team that beat the two "finalists" in the 2017 MNC game the same year Auburn beat both Georgia and Alabama.

Tip of the hat to the Tigers. But I still say UCF has more than a fighters chance with a healthy Milton McKenzie.
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McKenzie Milton didn’t play and 8 LSU defensive starters didn’t play. Not sure why we’re talking about them.
UCF benefited from a non call on an obvious DPI/holding when they got the pick 6.

It’s not a bogus stat. You just don’t get it. I’ll tell you right now that Vegas uses these types of numbers to grade teams and set their lines, but I’m sure you know better than them

But I’m done talking about it. You guys are incapable of being impartial when it comes to LSU.
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Mr. ProfoundWizard (Mr. Smith), while your need to “defend” that upriver school is noble, YOU are the Tulane Beat Writer! Don’t you have a column due or something ?
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TURVS71 wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:37 pm Mr. ProfoundWizard (Mr. Smith), while your need to “defend” that upriver school is noble, YOU are the Tulane Beat Writer! Don’t you have a column due or something ?
Read my post history, dumbass. I’m the first to call Guery a moron.
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:oops:
Profoundwizard wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:40 pm
TURVS71 wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:37 pm Mr. ProfoundWizard (Mr. Smith), while your need to “defend” that upriver school is noble, YOU are the Tulane Beat Writer! Don’t you have a column due or something ?
Read my post history, dumbass. I’m the first to call Guery a moron.
Deflection move ...Why is this even a thread??😀😀😀
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TURVS71 wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:08 pm :oops:
Profoundwizard wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:40 pm
TURVS71 wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:37 pm Mr. ProfoundWizard (Mr. Smith), while your need to “defend” that upriver school is noble, YOU are the Tulane Beat Writer! Don’t you have a column due or something ?
Read my post history, dumbass. I’m the first to call Guery a moron.
Deflection move ...Why is this even a thread??😀😀😀
Are you questioning why a thread you started even exists? Dumber than I thought.

Maybe you've got me confused with bananax07 who asked you why you even started this thread, because you got your feelings hurt on twitter.
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Profoundwizard wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:28 pm McKenzie Milton didn’t play and 8 LSU defensive starters didn’t play. Not sure why we’re talking about them.
UCF benefited from a non call on an obvious DPI/holding when they got the pick 6.

It’s not a bogus stat. You just don’t get it. I’ll tell you right now that Vegas uses these types of numbers to grade teams and set their lines, but I’m sure you know better than them

But I’m done talking about it. You guys are incapable of being impartial when it comes to LSU.
What's upsetting is that your viewpoint, along with that of the column written by Guerry Smith, promulgates the view that there is this big discrepancy between P5 and G5 programs. Clearly that's a media invented (and I dare say INVESTED) opinion. The top of the P5 is above the top of the G5, no doubt. But UCF has proven to be quite capable of competing despite the obvious disadvantage the media has placed the G5. The same was true for Boise State and a number of other (typically outlaying) G5 programs, including Tulane in 1998.

The cellar dwellars of the P5 are no better than the middle of the pack of the G5. Yet one good start of a season in the SEC gets a team ranked in a heartbeat.

Media creates perception. And for the uninformed NCAA fanbase, perception is reality. That's why we hate it. F*CK the P5. And yes, a stat that "prognasticates" the outcome of a game, AFTER THE GAME, is a bogus stat. Kind of like a baseball forecaster saying deGrom will get lit up after he gave up 5 runs for the first time in over a season.
Last edited by DfromCT on Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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At kickoff LSU went off as as 7 1/2 point favorite. They covered by 1/2 point and this was domination? Give me a break.
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It pains me to say, but I think LSU was the better team from top to bottom. UCF could have Nd probably would have won with Milton.

I like Guerry, he loves Tulane and is honest.

What irritated me the most was the announcer hack that kept putting the American and the other G5 as they say, down and pumping up the big boys. Jerk!!
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Matter of opinion but this superiority complex of the G5 in not good for college sports. Many more good athletes in the country today due to fitness and nutritional programs and knowledge. I have witness a bias all around even in athletic rating sites. I see athletes rated 4 or 5 star perform like 2 and 3 star players. Then I also see the reverse of this. Athletes get graded higher simply based on the programs recruiting them. Does not necessarily mean they or better athletes. I have seen 3 star athletes go up to 4 star when signing with a G5 program, bs. These so called diamond in the rough are in many cases better than these 4 or 5 star players but did not get the publicity that others got. Matt Forte was a 2 star recruit and we all know what he did in the NFL. I saw Tulane wipe the floor of the Superdome leading LSU at halftime in their last game. Matt Flynn was sacked 6 times, Les Miles was having fits as a freshman offensive tackle from John Curtis named Neumann was making star defensive tackle Dorsey for LSU eat the turf of the Dome. LSU offensive and defensive lines were having fits that lst half. But the big difference in the end was the depth because while Tulane starters gave the Tigers fits they wore down because LSU had more depth down to the third team. It wore Tulane down as LSU started getting fresh guys in the game. But depth takes time to achieve recruiting classes overtime, I believe Wille Fritz if allow the time will build the depth needed to compete for championships. Quick coaching changes stunts the growth of building long term programs.
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DfromCT wrote: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:47 pm If nothing else, this post should get merged into the 36 or 37 page Geurry Smith thread we've got.

UCF was not dominated. And the best player for either team was on crutches on the UCF sideline. Similar to last year's game versus Auburn, Auburn out gained and had longer time of possession. What was missing this year? Big plays from a big time player named Milton McKenzie, who should have been AAC player of the year two years in a row.
I agree. UCF was not dominated. End of story.
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I find UCF fans miserable, but I went out of my way to watch this game because I desperately wanted to watch LSU hillbillies face existential crisis’ & jump off bridges if they lost . . . Oh so close. Milton would have won that game for them no doubt. Does LSU have more talent ? Duh
Last edited by Bicoastalwave on Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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As miserable as patriots fans are, they tip their caps to the teams who have risen above them & played amazing games and beaten them in the big moments (speaking of Super Bowls). My god, that never happens with LSU. Act like you’ve been there before hillbillies . . . Or like you’re actually a university that’s primary function is to support higher learning. . . I wonder how many of their students would even know that ?
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