Fritz year 3 by the (Vegas) numbers, expectation vs reality

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wave to em
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Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:29 am

A quick look at Fritz by the numbers according to the experts in vegas.

Fritz so far is 11-20 At Tulane. One of His biggest problems has been the failure to beat teams that he should beat. When i say "teams he should beat", i mean games that we were favored to win according to the vegas consensus closing line.

In the 2.5 years that Fritz has been here, he has been favored to win 13 times and has won 9 of them (3 of which were FCS opponents). That puts his win % at 69.23 % when favored. If you take out the FCS opponents, Fritz is 6-4 against FBS talent, giving him only a 60% win rate when favored against FBS teams. In 2 of the 4 losses, Tulane was favored by 8 or more points.

When Tulane is the underdog, Fritz is an abysmal 2-16, making his win % 11.11% when underdogs. It is also worth mentioning that Fritz is 0-5 as an underdog when the spread is within 8 points (one possession).
All in all, Willie has under performed to say the least. He has got to find a way to start winning these games we are favored in.

Numbers don't lie, and when you dive into them, you really see just how bad it is.
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Dave breslin
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Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:50 am

What’s most concerning, is that we are probably not going to be favored unless we play Poydras House. At least if anyone from Vegas watches our offense “try” to play. I believe that anything past the sunbelt level of strength is above the current offensive coaches abilities Kudos to the D for effort but this O philosophy/scheme is High School. Bottom line is we are poorly coached
netshorty
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Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:42 am

wave to em wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:29 am
A quick look at Fritz by the numbers according to the experts in vegas.

Fritz so far is 11-20 At Tulane. One of His biggest problems has been the failure to beat teams that he should beat. When i say "teams he should beat", i mean games that we were favored to win according to the vegas consensus closing line.

In the 2.5 years that Fritz has been here, he has been favored to win 13 times and has won 9 of them (3 of which were FCS opponents). That puts his win % at 69.23 % when favored. If you take out the FCS opponents, Fritz is 6-4 against FBS talent, giving him only a 60% win rate when favored against FBS teams. In 2 of the 4 losses, Tulane was favored by 8 or more points.

When Tulane is the underdog, Fritz is an abysmal 2-16, making his win % 11.11% when underdogs. It is also worth mentioning that Fritz is 0-5 as an underdog when the spread is within 8 points (one possession).
All in all, Willie has under performed to say the least. He has got to find a way to start winning these games we are favored in.

Numbers don't lie, and when you dive into them, you really see just how bad it is.
Roll Wave
cool research and very telling. thanks.

that is the difference in a good coach / bad coach. especially one trying to turn around a program. you've got to win the ones you're supposed to and steal some you're not. not rocket science.
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