Line Opens Tulane 3.5 pts. > UAB

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Wave755
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Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:37 pm

Spread opens Wave 3.5 pts. > UAB (Rotation nos. 163-164 for Vegas Sheet). http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foo ... las-vegas/

UAB “body of work” to date:

1) 8/30 – UAB 52, Savannah State 0;
2) 9/8 – Coastal Carolina 47, UAB 24.

Take the Wave, lay the 3.5 points. We play well in Birmingham. This game is truly a turning point for the season.

And, as a side note, Auburn opens 10 pts. > LSWho? & Miss. St. 30.5 pts. > ULALA.


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RobertM320
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Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:21 pm

Interesting how AAC doesn't get any respect. ECU, who is arguably one of the WORST teams in the AAC (of course UConn is the worst) beats North Carolina 41-19 yesterday. This week, UCF, (one of the BEST teams in the AAC) goes to Chapel Hill to play UNC, and is only a 13.5 point favorite. Makes you wonder if the oddsmakers even watch some of these games.
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DfromCT
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Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:52 pm

No, the oddsmakers don't watch. Their job is to put the line where as many bet on the favorite as is bet on the underdog. Because UAB lost to Coastal Carolina, a lot of gamblers will shy away from them. I would think the Blazers put forth a much better effort this week at home against us. I hope others are right and we win going away, but this game reeks to me. I wouldn't bet it either way.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
Wave755
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Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:27 pm

O/U 55 pts.; spread now Wave 4 pts. > UAB (Rotation nos. 163-164 for Vegas Sheet). http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foo ... las-vegas/

I think the Wave is going to score some points on these guys :thumbup:, "over" looks tempting, Coastal Carolina did put up 47 on UAB after scoring only 15 on South Carolina?
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OUG
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Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:20 pm

DfromCT wrote:
Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:52 pm
No, the oddsmakers don't watch. Their job is to put the line where as many bet on the favorite as is bet on the underdog. Because UAB lost to Coastal Carolina, a lot of gamblers will shy away from them. I would think the Blazers put forth a much better effort this week at home against us. I hope others are right and we win going away, but this game reeks to me. I wouldn't bet it either way.
But their opening line at the beginning of the week has to be very much close to the sharps’ projection of the final score or the sharps will hammer it and they have exposure to getting middled between the public and the sharps. This idea that opening lines aren’t intended to reflect predictions has deep roots — some people even think that Vegas never loses money on sports because the money is always balanced and they just take the juice. Couldn’t be further from the truth.

Usually I find opening lines to be pretty accurate, give or take some variability. The oddsmakers at major books may or may not watch every game, but they follow them meticulously and can throw numbers at you that you wouldn’t believe. Most were sharp professional gamblers themselves with their own data intensive systems.
DfromCT
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Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:00 pm

OUG wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:20 pm
DfromCT wrote:
Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:52 pm
No, the oddsmakers don't watch. Their job is to put the line where as many bet on the favorite as is bet on the underdog. Because UAB lost to Coastal Carolina, a lot of gamblers will shy away from them. I would think the Blazers put forth a much better effort this week at home against us. I hope others are right and we win going away, but this game reeks to me. I wouldn't bet it either way.
But their opening line at the beginning of the week has to be very much close to the sharps’ projection of the final score or the sharps will hammer it and they have exposure to getting middled between the public and the sharps. This idea that opening lines aren’t intended to reflect predictions has deep roots — some people even think that Vegas never loses money on sports because the money is always balanced and they just take the juice. Couldn’t be further from the truth.

Usually I find opening lines to be pretty accurate, give or take some variability. The oddsmakers at major books may or may not watch every game, but they follow them meticulously and can throw numbers at you that you wouldn’t believe. Most were sharp professional gamblers themselves with their own data intensive systems.

I don't disagree with anything you say. But I still think they TRY to get as close to a balanced point as possible. You kind of made my point with the "sharps" comment I highlighted above. Sometimes line movements get them burned. Sometimes they don't get close to balanced and/or the books take on a bunch of big $$ "teaser" bets that come in on a particular weekend/game. One anonymous gambler took Vegas sports books for a few million on the 2017 World Series and $10 million on the Super Bowl.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sp ... o-won-10m/

But in general the sports books are money makers. The odds are in their favor, much like any Casino game.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
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Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:10 pm

Lay the Points.
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Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:51 am

RobertM320 wrote:
Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:21 pm
Interesting how AAC doesn't get any respect. ECU, who is arguably one of the WORST teams in the AAC (of course UConn is the worst) beats North Carolina 41-19 yesterday. This week, UCF, (one of the BEST teams in the AAC) goes to Chapel Hill to play UNC, and is only a 13.5 point favorite. Makes you wonder if the oddsmakers even watch some of these games.
They also got beat by FCS North Carolina A&T of the MEAC. A HBCU conference. They are a top 10 FCS program, but they shouldn’t be beating a AAC team.
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Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:13 am

Wave QB wrote:
Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:51 am
RobertM320 wrote:
Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:21 pm
Interesting how AAC doesn't get any respect. ECU, who is arguably one of the WORST teams in the AAC (of course UConn is the worst) beats North Carolina 41-19 yesterday. This week, UCF, (one of the BEST teams in the AAC) goes to Chapel Hill to play UNC, and is only a 13.5 point favorite. Makes you wonder if the oddsmakers even watch some of these games.
They also got beat by FCS North Carolina A&T of the MEAC. A HBCU conference. They are a top 10 FCS program, but they shouldn’t be beating a AAC team.
This. There is a huge mixed bag in the AAC at the moment, and the only thing that is clear is that Houston, UCF, Cincinnati and USF appear to be the real deal so far. Navy losing to Hawaii and then beating Memphis hurt the conference pretty badly, and that's only one of the embarrassments (i.e. Temple losing to FCS and Buffalo, SMU losing to North Texas, ECU losing to FCS, etc.

As for Tulane, hopefully, Tulane will win and cover, but it's too soon to even bother placing a bet on it.
Wave755
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Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:05 pm

Take a look at the Winsipedia page for the Tulane-UAB rivalry http://www.winsipedia.com/games/tulane/vs/uab

We have played UAB 9 times and hold a slim 5 to 4 series lead. We have won our last 2 meetings played in 2011-12, each time scoring over 40 points, 49 to 10 in 2011, and 55 to 45 in 2012.

Even “Buffet Bob” Toledo & CJ had their way with these guys.

I see us on Saturday once again lighting up the Scoreboard at Legion Field in Birmingham.
DfromCT
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Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:48 pm

Wave755 wrote:
Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:05 pm
Take a look at the Winsipedia page for the Tulane-UAB rivalry http://www.winsipedia.com/games/tulane/vs/uab

We have played UAB 9 times and hold a slim 5 to 4 series lead. We have won our last 2 meetings played in 2011-12, each time scoring over 40 points, 49 to 10 in 2011, and 55 to 45 in 2012.

Even “Buffet Bob” Toledo & CJ had their way with these guys.

I see us on Saturday once again lighting up the Scoreboard at Legion Field in Birmingham.
The wildest Tulane game I've ever seen was homecoming 2004. I believe it was Lester Ricard leading the Green Wave to a 59-55 victory. A guy by the name of Roddy White lead all receivers with something like 250 receiving yards! And the game was a regulation game, no overtime.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
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