Line Closing Wake Forest 6 pts. > Wave

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anEngineer
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Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:13 am

RobertM320 wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:56 pm
Just wondering, this is the same OC and Wake Forest team that scored "7" whole points on us just 24 games ago?
That's the same one. It's really been comical watching the doomsayers on this site talk about Wake running up the score and having this big shootout. They live for gloom and can NEVER admit that Tulane Athletics does win games. A psycologist could write several papers..


DfromCT
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Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:57 am

anEngineer wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:13 am
RobertM320 wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:56 pm
Just wondering, this is the same OC and Wake Forest team that scored "7" whole points on us just 24 games ago?
That's the same one. It's really been comical watching the doomsayers on this site talk about Wake running up the score and having this big shootout. They live for gloom and can NEVER admit that Tulane Athletics does win games. A psycologist could write several papers..
And it's the same WF team that hung 55 points on Texas A&M, and averaged 35.3 ppg last year, against a much tougher schedule than we play. They were 21st in the country in scoring and ran a play every 12 seconds. This is not the same team that we faced three years ago.

And until we win more than we lose, and average more than 3 FBS wins per season, get used to the fact that the fans don't buy into Tulane regularly beating P5 schools who, statistically, are way ahead of us.

I have a feeling we'll be much better on offense this year, but our D is a HUGE question mark. And our front 7 will be filled with inexperienced players going against a veteran O-Line that is much more accomplished than the O-line we return. Talk is cheap, but it's put up or shut up on the gridiron. Thus far we've been all talk.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
golfnut69
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Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:18 am

DfromCT wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:57 am
anEngineer wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:13 am
RobertM320 wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:56 pm
Just wondering, this is the same OC and Wake Forest team that scored "7" whole points on us just 24 games ago?
That's the same one. It's really been comical watching the doomsayers on this site talk about Wake running up the score and having this big shootout. They live for gloom and can NEVER admit that Tulane Athletics does win games. A psycologist could write several papers..
And it's the same WF team that hung 55 points on Texas A&M, and averaged 35.3 ppg last year, against a much tougher schedule than we play. They were 21st in the country in scoring and ran a play every 12 seconds. This is not the same team that we faced three years ago.

And until we win more than we lose, and average more than 3 FBS wins per season, get used to the fact that the fans don't buy into Tulane regularly beating P5 schools who, statistically, are way ahead of us.

I have a feeling we'll be much better on offense this year, but our D is a HUGE question mark. And our front 7 will be filled with inexperienced players going against a veteran O-Line that is much more accomplished than the O-line we return. Talk is cheap, but it's put up or shut up on the gridiron. Thus far we've been all talk.
D...I agree with much you have posted, but let's be realistic..A/M did not want to play in that game, the Coach had already been fired and thanks to two terrible official calls against A/M very late in the game, WF was a loser, but that's what happens when U have "homer" officials, almost like the one's we had in DFW last year.... Do I think Tulane will win, no, will I be shocked if they do, NO.....
Last edited by golfnut69 on Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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golfnut69
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Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:03 am

One more thing about A&M...in 2017 their defense was TERRIBLE, and that is being polite....UCLA almost scored a half hundred in an half...Inept LSU scored 45...so giving up 55 to anyone with a pulse did not surprise anyone in College Station.....what was surprising, A&M almost scored half hundred on WF.......A&M's "O" was "below average " at best...so I would not be putting too much in that classic known as the "belk bowl"

http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-17/2017 ... hedule.php
Last edited by golfnut69 on Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
netshorty
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Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:30 am

WF had a great offense last year. True if WF = Wake Forest.. False if WF = Willie Fritz
And while poking fun at the Wake team of 2 years ago that managed 10 first downs, 175 total yards and a measily 7 points against us, no doubt that this is a better WF offense now. Even without their starting QB.

Will the game be a shootout? I'm guessing that the total points will be closer to 100 then the 10 that were scored last time we played. That doesn't nessarily mean a shootout though.

The only thing that I'm confident in is this: If we try to play smash mouth football just to eat up clock we will lose and likely by a large margin. It is true that overmatched teams give themselves a chance when they "run effectively". We have a knack of breaking some good long runs. Our "explosiveness" in the S&P+ was 37th best in the country, quite good. But our efficiency was terrible (88th). Our abundance of 3-and-outs (plus bad special teams) lead to us being 89th in Field Position.

Last year we proved at the end of the season that if we were more balanced, we had a better chance of winning. Our win expectancy in the last two games were 31% and 15%. Most would argue we won those last two games. I'm sure we'll see more balance this year then previous years, I just hope we don't revert back to the shorten the game by being run heavy when we play some of the better teams on the schedule. I think this would be a big mistake.
DfromCT
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Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:44 pm

Many great coaches have said "a short, quick pass is like a long handoff". That's been said in this thread numerous times, yet everyone keeps saying I want to run the ball 80% of the time in this game. Nothing could be further from the truth. I want to play ball control. That's not the same thing. And EVERY game I want to take shots downfield, especially if we've run the ball to the point where the D is over playing the run.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
netshorty
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Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:54 pm

DfromCT wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:44 pm
Many great coaches have said "a short, quick pass is like a long handoff". That's been said in this thread numerous times, yet everyone keeps saying I want to run the ball 80% of the time in this game. Nothing could be further from the truth. I want to play ball control. That's not the same thing. And EVERY game I want to take shots downfield, especially if we've run the ball to the point where the D is over playing the run.
But this isn't what we do. Our typical "ball control" is run, run, run. We have long questioned why Fritz hasn't implemented screen passes, short slants and quick outs more often. We agree that "ball control" is important. We disagree on how we achieve that.

My point is we actually limit other team's possessions better when we sustain drives using a more balanced mix of run/pass then we do run, run ,run, punt and then give the other team good field position. It should have been evident by what we did on the field at the end of the year. I've tried to also show the statistics and analytics to prove that this is our best chance in all games this upcoming year. Maybe we're saying the same thing, I don't know. But this is what caused me to voice my opinion on the subject:
DfromCT wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:05 pm
golfnut69 wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 5:50 pm

D...this will be the classic " ya can't run a play if ain't got da' ball " game plan...run, run run,eat the clock, make them play catch up and commit mistakes...keep you d fresh by holding on to the ball...
Totally agree, but when I said the same months ago, a certain adamant poster here told me Fritz cannot go back to the ground and pound game as he learned during the second half of last year that a 50-50 balance is the only way to win. I see his point, but this is DEFINITELY a game where we should try to dominate time of possession...
Wave755
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Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:08 am

ESPN Matchup Predictor has it 71.9% Wake Forest, 28.1% Wave. http://www.espn.com/college-football/ga ... =401013086

But remember and keep in mind, this is the same Nate Silver operation that told us it was a near certainty Hillary Clinton would be President of the United States right now! :lol:

And ironically, Silver (538) as late as Election Day only gave Trump a 28% chance of winning too! :D


P.S. - And, whoever Tyler Gibson is, Roll Wave!!!
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RobertM320
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Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:08 pm

netshorty wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:10 pm
RobertM320 wrote:
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:56 pm
Just wondering, this is the same OC and Wake Forest team that scored "7" whole points on us just 24 games ago?
Ha! And with only 10 first downs and a measly 175 yards of total offense...

Probably because we ran the ball 67% of the time and controlled the clock. Earned us a whopping 3 points...
Yeah, but IIRC, we played that game with no quarterbacks having a single collegiate pass under their belt.
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DfromCT
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Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:39 pm

Yes, and it's the same OC that had Wake Forest in the top 10 in multiple offensive categories last year. And he did the same at every place he's coached. This is an offense that very much resembled what we had in '98 in terms of dominating lesser opponents. But what the heck, let's keep on focusing on a game that was much earlier in their coaching staff's regime two years ago. Don't read anything that may support the fact that they were VERY prolific a year ago playing teams that were higher rated than Tulane. It will magically go away.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
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RobertM320
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Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:04 pm

I think people are taking "ball control" to mean "run,run,run" like Army or Navy. I don't take it that way at all. We need to be balanced, but we also can't take unnecessary chances and end up with quick 3 and outs. That means staying ahead of the chains, regardless of how that's accomplished. If it means a quick out for 5 yards and then two runs for a first, great. If it means run, run and pass on 3rd down, that works too. But we can't go out there and throw three incomplete passes and punt.
"ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! HANG EM AND BANG EM! HANG EM AND BANG EM!"-- Todd Graffagnini
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Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:43 am

Wake Forest’s program has been on a steadily upward trajectory for the past few years. Their O Line is imposing and we will have a mighty fight on our hands. A win would be very good for the program (not huge but very good) and would set an excellent tone for the season. Athlon, who do their homework and show us far more love than others, puts Wake as the 37th best team in the country and have us at 90. Now that’s not gospel but it’s rare to see them be significantly off (+/- 20-30) spots or more. I’ve included the link below, but I think it’s appropriate for us to show Wake & their coach some respect. Furthermore, let’s acknowledge this would be a very good win for us.

As an aside I will be flying in for the game to cheer on the team, lose my voice and consume too many adult beverages.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/athlonspor ... tion%3Famp
golfnut69
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Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:00 am

I still think the heat and Humidity will play a factor in this game...I just checked Wakes weather today 73 percent humidity only because they are having thunderstorms
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DfromCT
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Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:30 pm

golfnut69 wrote:
Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:00 am
I still think the heat and Humidity will play a factor in this game...I just checked Wakes weather today 73 percent humidity only because they are having thunderstorms
Although it can be warm and humid in late August at night, it is a night time game. I think the veteran Wake O-line against a very inexperienced Tulane D-line will be a bigger factor than the weather.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
anEngineer
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Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:45 pm

Didn't really have a spot for this but it's Tulane Football 2018 and it starts here, so... Saw these blue helmets on response to Breylon Garcia "offer blessing".
Are these helmets a real thing? I like it. https://twitter.com/TFB_Edits/status/10 ... 87584?s=19
Wave755
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Sun Aug 05, 2018 11:09 am

Spread now moves to Wake Forest 6.5 pts. > Tulane. Early money on Wave. A real compliment to Willie Fritz with Vegas knowing we will be well prepared and tough at home. I would think Vegas expects us to pick it up this season right where we left off for last, a big win over Houston & an inch short against a SMU team we had on the ropes.
golfnut69
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Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:50 pm

Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
Wave755
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Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:13 pm

Wave755
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Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:46 am

O/U 56, so Vegas does not anticipate. a “Belk Bowl like” shootout for our game with the Deacons.
Wave755
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Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:04 am

Line closing Wake Forest 6 pts. > Wave. (Rotation nos. 139-140 for Vegas Sheet). http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foo ... las-vegas/

This Willie Fritz team has R-E-S-P-E-C-T. Let's hope tonight we show this new respect for the Wave is well placed. Under "Buffet Bob" Toledo or CJ the spread right now would be about 16.5 pts.
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RobertM320
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Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:14 am

Wave755 wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:46 am
O/U 56, so Vegas does not anticipate. a “Belk Bowl like” shootout for our game with the Deacons.
I'm leaning toward the under, myself. They have a new QB, and we've got a few injuries on offense. Also, could be rain or at least a wet field.
"ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! HANG EM AND BANG EM! HANG EM AND BANG EM!"-- Todd Graffagnini
DfromCT
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Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:20 pm

The Old Gold & Black board (Wake Forest's equal to this one) has some funny things posted. One poster, talking about the line movement, said "54% of the action is on Wake, 51% is on Tulane." So there's 105% of the action on one team or another!

Another poster said that this game has a great "middle" potential:
It looks like there may be a perfect middle for this game. A couple places have it a -6.5 and a couple have -7.5. Although it's not that likely happen, if you bet Wake -6.5 and Tulane +7.5 and we win by 7 you win both bets.

Let's say you bet $110 to win a $100 on each side. All you really have at risk is $10, but you can win $200.

Here's the easy math:

Wake wins 35-31

You lose $110 on Wake -6.5
You net a win of $100 on Tulane
Net loss $10 (the same works if we blow them out)

If we win 35-28

You win $100 on Wake -6.5
You win $100 on Tulane +7.5

The odds are you are going to lose $10, but 7 is a great number to have in the middle in football.
What happens if it's a 5 point game, or Wake Forest loses? You lose $210!! That is beyond his realm of possible outcomes!

And, I will admit, I read a post that said Wake's offense is returning 8, not 10 starters. The RPO they run at breakneck speed (a play every 12 seconds) still scares me, even with a true Frosh making his first career start on the road.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
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RobertM320
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Thu Aug 30, 2018 3:45 pm

DfromCT wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:20 pm
What happens if it's a 5 point game, or Wake Forest loses? You lose $210!! That is beyond his realm of possible outcomes!
No, if its a 5 point game, or WF loses, he'll win the bet on Tulane +7.5. No way he can lose more than $10
"ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! HANG EM AND BANG EM! HANG EM AND BANG EM!"-- Todd Graffagnini
DfromCT
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Thu Aug 30, 2018 3:55 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 3:45 pm
DfromCT wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:20 pm
What happens if it's a 5 point game, or Wake Forest loses? You lose $210!! That is beyond his realm of possible outcomes!
No, if its a 5 point game, or WF loses, he'll win the bet on Tulane +7.5. No way he can lose more than $10
Yes, you are right, my bad (duh!) That's what happens when you're trying to do analysis like this while at your job with a boss that constantly looks over your shoulder! You are absolutely right and I was wrong, Robert.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
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