SBNATION on The Wave

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winwave
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Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:18 pm



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Aberzombie1892
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Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

It’s hard not to at least be a little disappointed that in year 3 of Fritz, Tulane has greater than 50% chance of winning only 1 of its 12 games using one set of advanced metrics.

It’s also disappointing that, in year 3, a 6-7 record would be something to truly celebrate. Granted, if Tulane has a better record than LSU, regardless of what that record would be, it will be worth celebrating, but that would be a long shot even with LSU generally being projected to be particularly down this year.
golfnut69
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Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:42 pm

Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
winwave
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Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:04 pm

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm
It’s hard not to at least be a little disappointed that in year 3 of Fritz, Tulane has greater than 50% chance of winning only 1 of its 12 games using one set of advanced metrics.

It’s also disappointing that, in year 3, a 6-7 record would be something to truly celebrate. Granted, if Tulane has a better record than LSU, regardless of what that record would be, it will be worth celebrating, but that would be a long shot even with LSU generally being projected to be particularly down this year.
zombie- remember that's just what they say now. That's not gospel. As they say that's why they play the games. I'm not saying we'll go 12-0 in the regular season but hoping for 8 wins is not unrealistic. It may happen, we may even win a couple more than that or we could fall a little short. Looking forward to see how it plays out.
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golfnut69
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:23 am

winwave wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:04 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm
It’s hard not to at least be a little disappointed that in year 3 of Fritz, Tulane has greater than 50% chance of winning only 1 of its 12 games using one set of advanced metrics.

It’s also disappointing that, in year 3, a 6-7 record would be something to truly celebrate. Granted, if Tulane has a better record than LSU, regardless of what that record would be, it will be worth celebrating, but that would be a long shot even with LSU generally being projected to be particularly down this year.
zombie- remember that's just what they say now. That's not gospel. As they say that's why they play the games. I'm not saying we'll go 12-0 in the regular season but hoping for 8 wins is not unrealistic. It may happen, we may even win a couple more than that or we could fall a little short. Looking forward to see how it plays out.
I think Tulane may win as many as 8 games and as few as 4...the UAB game will be pivotal....
Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
Houma de Wave
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:33 am

Look at our track record in football. It ain’t pretty. These prognosticators all have one thing in common in “predicting” college teams’ win-loss records in April...myopia. If you were bad to mediocre for as long as we’ve been, those soothsayers aren’t going to give you much hope.

Phil Steele, for as early as he releases his college football mag, is often the most accurate. But, they’re all out to sell their product because guys like us are eager to
buy and bring on the season as quickly as possible.
DfromCT
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:08 am

golfnut69 wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:42 pm
A CFN view
https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/03 ... s-analysis
This one is particularly dated, as it pre-dates Junior Diaz transferring. Or it's just lousy reporting.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your ongoing support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
Ruski
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:36 am

golfnut69 wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:23 am
winwave wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:04 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm
It’s hard not to at least be a little disappointed that in year 3 of Fritz, Tulane has greater than 50% chance of winning only 1 of its 12 games using one set of advanced metrics.

It’s also disappointing that, in year 3, a 6-7 record would be something to truly celebrate. Granted, if Tulane has a better record than LSU, regardless of what that record would be, it will be worth celebrating, but that would be a long shot even with LSU generally being projected to be particularly down this year.
zombie- remember that's just what they say now. That's not gospel. As they say that's why they play the games. I'm not saying we'll go 12-0 in the regular season but hoping for 8 wins is not unrealistic. It may happen, we may even win a couple more than that or we could fall a little short. Looking forward to see how it plays out.
I think Tulane may win as many as 8 games and as few as 4...the UAB game will be pivotal....
UAB and Wake should tell us what kind of team/season we'll have. Our conference play is much more difficult than OOC.

Here's our schedule sorted by S&P win probability:

Nicholls State 84%
East Caroline 74%
@Tulsa 50%
Navy 48%
SMU 43%
@UAB 41%
@Cinxinnati 38%
Memphis 30%
@Houston 26%
Wake Forest 25%
@USF 25%
@OSU 2%


I think Memphis and Houston games will be much more difficult than Wake.

If we beat UAB+Wake I think we have a realistic floor of 7 wins.
DfromCT
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:41 am

Ruski wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:36 am

UAB and Wake should tell us what kind of team/season we'll have. Our conference play is much more difficult than OOC.

Here's our schedule sorted by S&P win probability:

Nicholls State 84%
East Caroline 74%
@Tulsa 50%
Navy 48%
SMU 43%
@UAB 41%
@Cinxinnati 38%
Memphis 30%
@Houston 26%
Wake Forest 25%
@USF 25%
@OSU 2%


I think Memphis and Houston games will be much more difficult than Wake.

If we beat UAB+Wake I think we have a realistic floor of 7 wins.

A "floor" indicates a minimum of wins. Even if we beat UAB and Wake, we're still only favored in 2 other games, with Tulsa being a virtual toss up.

I do think the Wave has a very legitimate shot at 7 wins. I just don't think the graphic you used supports your argument. It actually contradicts it.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your ongoing support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
Ruski
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:58 am

DfromCT wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:08 am
golfnut69 wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:42 pm
A CFN view
https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/03 ... s-analysis
This one is particularly dated, as it pre-dates Junior Diaz transferring. Or it's just lousy reporting.
I think it was lazy reporting. But I don't think it changes where Tulane would rank.

1. UCF
2. Memphis
3. USF
4. Houston
5. Navy
6. SMU
7. Temple
8. Cincinnati
9. Tulane
10. Tulsa
11. ECU
12. UCONN

Seems about right. I think SMU is too high but not absurd.
Ruski
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:03 am

DfromCT wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:41 am
Ruski wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:36 am

UAB and Wake should tell us what kind of team/season we'll have. Our conference play is much more difficult than OOC.

Here's our schedule sorted by S&P win probability:

Nicholls State 84%
East Caroline 74%
@Tulsa 50%
Navy 48%
SMU 43%
@UAB 41%
@Cinxinnati 38%
Memphis 30%
@Houston 26%
Wake Forest 25%
@USF 25%
@OSU 2%


I think Memphis and Houston games will be much more difficult than Wake.

If we beat UAB+Wake I think we have a realistic floor of 7 wins.

A "floor" indicates a minimum of wins. Even if we beat UAB and Wake, we're still only favored in 2 other games, with Tulsa being a virtual toss up.

I do think the Wave has a very legitimate shot at 7 wins. I just don't think the graphic you used supports your argument. It actually contradicts it.
LOL. I understand what the term floor means. I said IF we beat UAB and Wake, teams we are not favored in either, then we will win 4 more+Nicholls.

I see those 4 wins coming against some combination of

3 wins from the pool of ECU, @Tulsa, Navy, SMU (all which we have higher probability of beating than UAB),

1 win from the pool of @Cincy, @Houston, @USF (both of which are equal or greater probability of beating than Wake).

If we are good/consistent enough to beat @UAB and Wake, then I think we go at least 4-3 in those 7 games.
Aberzombie1892
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:51 am

winwave wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:04 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm
It’s hard not to at least be a little disappointed that in year 3 of Fritz, Tulane has greater than 50% chance of winning only 1 of its 12 games using one set of advanced metrics.

It’s also disappointing that, in year 3, a 6-7 record would be something to truly celebrate. Granted, if Tulane has a better record than LSU, regardless of what that record would be, it will be worth celebrating, but that would be a long shot even with LSU generally being projected to be particularly down this year.
zombie- remember that's just what they say now. That's not gospel. As they say that's why they play the games. I'm not saying we'll go 12-0 in the regular season but hoping for 8 wins is not unrealistic. It may happen, we may even win a couple more than that or we could fall a little short. Looking forward to see how it plays out.
I agree that it’s not gospel, but that analysis has been pretty close over the last couple of seasons, as it predicted 5-7 for 2017 (accurate) and 3-8 in 2016 (off by 1 win). Hopefully, it will be off by 1 win again with its 5-7 prediction for 2018, but it’s hard to feel the same level of enthusiasm that was felt prior to the 2017 and 2016 seasons.
DfromCT
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:06 pm

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:51 am
I agree that it’s not gospel, but that analysis has been pretty close over the last couple of seasons, as it predicted 5-7 for 2017 (accurate) and 3-8 in 2016 (off by 1 win). Hopefully, it will be off by 1 win again with its 5-7 prediction for 2018, but it’s hard to feel the same level of enthusiasm that was felt prior to the 2017 and 2016 seasons.
I disagree. I think most on this forum have higher expectations for 2018 than 2017 and MUCH higher expectations than 2016. I predicted in 2016 that 4 wins was the ceiling. I'm very confident 4 wins is the floor this coming year. Even if Banks was injured on the first play of the first game, I'd be coach shopping if this team doesn't win 4 games. It should win 6 or 7, with a long shot at 8.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your ongoing support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
winwave
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:23 pm

Ruski wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:36 am
golfnut69 wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:23 am
winwave wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:04 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm
It’s hard not to at least be a little disappointed that in year 3 of Fritz, Tulane has greater than 50% chance of winning only 1 of its 12 games using one set of advanced metrics.

It’s also disappointing that, in year 3, a 6-7 record would be something to truly celebrate. Granted, if Tulane has a better record than LSU, regardless of what that record would be, it will be worth celebrating, but that would be a long shot even with LSU generally being projected to be particularly down this year.
zombie- remember that's just what they say now. That's not gospel. As they say that's why they play the games. I'm not saying we'll go 12-0 in the regular season but hoping for 8 wins is not unrealistic. It may happen, we may even win a couple more than that or we could fall a little short. Looking forward to see how it plays out.
I think Tulane may win as many as 8 games and as few as 4...the UAB game will be pivotal....
UAB and Wake should tell us what kind of team/season we'll have. Our conference play is much more difficult than OOC.

Here's our schedule sorted by S&P win probability:

Nicholls State 84%
East Caroline 74%
@Tulsa 50%
Navy 48%
SMU 43%
@UAB 41%
@Cinxinnati 38%
Memphis 30%
@Houston 26%
Wake Forest 25%
@USF 25%
@OSU 2%


I think Memphis and Houston games will be much more difficult than Wake.

If we beat UAB+Wake I think we have a realistic floor of 7 wins.
Conference will be more difficult than our OOC but I wouldn't say much more. We do play Ohio State. Then there's the key personnel losses of some in the conference. USF loses Flowers. Memphis lost their QB. and so on. That's why I'm hopeful we'll get to 8 or possibly more if we are fortunate enough to stay healthy.
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winwave
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:25 pm

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:51 am
winwave wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:04 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm
It’s hard not to at least be a little disappointed that in year 3 of Fritz, Tulane has greater than 50% chance of winning only 1 of its 12 games using one set of advanced metrics.

It’s also disappointing that, in year 3, a 6-7 record would be something to truly celebrate. Granted, if Tulane has a better record than LSU, regardless of what that record would be, it will be worth celebrating, but that would be a long shot even with LSU generally being projected to be particularly down this year.
zombie- remember that's just what they say now. That's not gospel. As they say that's why they play the games. I'm not saying we'll go 12-0 in the regular season but hoping for 8 wins is not unrealistic. It may happen, we may even win a couple more than that or we could fall a little short. Looking forward to see how it plays out.
I agree that it’s not gospel, but that analysis has been pretty close over the last couple of seasons, as it predicted 5-7 for 2017 (accurate) and 3-8 in 2016 (off by 1 win). Hopefully, it will be off by 1 win again with its 5-7 prediction for 2018, but it’s hard to feel the same level of enthusiasm that was felt prior to the 2017 and 2016 seasons.
I don't know how one could be less enthusiastic this year then those two years. The defense is a question mark but the offense should be the best we've seen in a long time. Throw in the loss of QB's by several of our opponents and there's good reason for hope this season.
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DfromCT
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:50 pm

@winwave: Something we agree on? Unbelievable!

:lolgreen: :-D :lolgreen:
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your ongoing support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
winwave
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Fri Apr 20, 2018 4:40 pm

DfromCT wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:50 pm
@winwave: Something we agree on? Unbelievable!

:lolgreen: :-D :lolgreen:
:mrgreen:
Find A Way!
DfromCT
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Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:18 pm

Just for $hits and giggles, I thought I'd give a shot at handicapping the schedule. Keep in mind these predictions are out the window by the 3rd of 4th week of the season. But I don't agree with the S&P analysis so I'll give it a shot. You can make fun of me at the end of the season, b/c I'm putting it here!

Nicholls State 84% Ok, I'll go with 90%. Unless they've become a top 4 FCS team, we don't lose to them.
East Caroline 74% I go 65%. ECU gives us fits, and we needed OT to win against a BAD ECU team in '17
@Tulsa 50% I say 45%. They didn't show up for an early game which was low point of their season.
Navy 48% 60% Since it's at home, I think we win. But they're very well coached, no gimme.
SMU 43% 66% IF Banks is healthy, I think he has his best game of the season against SMU. Revenge.
@UAB 41% I put this one at 50%. UAB had an impressive return to football. But they're not THAT good.
@Cinxinnati 38% I put this one at 50/50 as well. Should have beat them last year, this years' team better.
Memphis 30% I go 40%. They have our number, but sooner or later we have to play well against them.
@Houston 26% Again, 40%. If it were a home game, I'd favor the Wave. Better coach.
Wake Forest 25% 50%. Since when is Wake a juggernaut?
@USF 25% 45%. They lost their best player, QB Quinton Flowers.
@OSU 2% OK with 2%. Maybe we stick around for a while, like we did with OU, but this is a paycheck game.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your ongoing support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
Ruski
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Wed Apr 25, 2018 4:35 pm

DfromCT wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:18 pm
Just for $hits and giggles, I thought I'd give a shot at handicapping the schedule. Keep in mind these predictions are out the window by the 3rd of 4th week of the season. But I don't agree with the S&P analysis so I'll give it a shot. You can make fun of me at the end of the season, b/c I'm putting it here!

Nicholls State 84% Ok, I'll go with 90%. Unless they've become a top 4 FCS team, we don't lose to them.
East Caroline 74% I go 65%. ECU gives us fits, and we needed OT to win against a BAD ECU team in '17
@Tulsa 50% I say 45%. They didn't show up for an early game which was low point of their season.
Navy 48% 60% Since it's at home, I think we win. But they're very well coached, no gimme.
SMU 43% 66% IF Banks is healthy, I think he has his best game of the season against SMU. Revenge.
@UAB 41% I put this one at 50%. UAB had an impressive return to football. But they're not THAT good.
@Cinxinnati 38% I put this one at 50/50 as well. Should have beat them last year, this years' team better.
Memphis 30% I go 40%. They have our number, but sooner or later we have to play well against them.
@Houston 26% Again, 40%. If it were a home game, I'd favor the Wave. Better coach.
Wake Forest 25% 50%. Since when is Wake a juggernaut?
@USF 25% 45%. They lost their best player, QB Quinton Flowers.
@OSU 2% OK with 2%. Maybe we stick around for a while, like we did with OU, but this is a paycheck game.
Cincy has a lot of talent that should be starting to blossom.....they beat us last year in Fickell's first year with a garbage roster.....at home..... 38% is generous

Memphis is returning almost everything but QB and RB.....most importantly Norvell is back....they might be beatable but 40% is too high

Houston now has Kendal Briles....we'll see if it's enough to offset Applewhite

USF is always gonna be overhyped to me until Strong really shows he can do something with his own talent

Agree for the most part with you tho
DfromCT
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Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:05 pm

It's a fun thing to do, and, fortunately or not, we can come back and look at this thread in November and see how it played out. If Banks gets hurt, I'm going to be way off. Some of my calculations were based upon what I saw last year and how I think the team will step up this year under Fritz. Others (i.e. Memphis) are gut feelings that tell me sooner or later we have to play better against a nemesis.

Cincy won a game last year that neither team played like they wanted to win. Our walk on placekicker missed a game winning FG on the last play of the game. Other than FIU,, that might be as bad as we played all year. Oh yeah, we did look bad the following week in an OT win at ECU (a team that got the crap kicked out of them by FCS runner up JMU.)
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your ongoing support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
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