Quick look ahead to 2018

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Ruski
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Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:03 pm

With 2017 football season in the books, with just an SEC exhibition game left to play, UCF crowned national champion, I think it's interesting to look ahead to 2018. Also coming back to work today really sucks.

Greenies bring back a lot. Biggest losses will be Hilliard and Badie on offense. Defense loses a lot more: Nickerson, Aruna, Franklin, Wilson, Marbley.

I really think we'll be able to plug and play Dauphine, Huderson at running back. Also the defense looked pretty shaky this year and I think a big part of it was that the senior leaders, while they made some fantastic plays also disappeared when we needed to make big stops. I'm hoping that some of the younger guys who got some time playing will be able to step in and play at least as well if not better.

Regardless I feel our O will continue to progress. First time since 2012 we'll know the QB confidently. That's huge.

Oh and we have the most talented incoming freshman class probably of this century.

Looking to the fall....

- Wake opening @Yulman will be a big, big game. I'll definitely be coming down for it. Should set the tone for the whole season. Wake ended up 8-5 and beat TA&M in their bowl game. Wake brings back most of their starters and should probably end up in the top 40 or so teams next year, competing near the top of the ACC.

- @UAB. First season back and they make a bowl game! Only 3 points away from playing in CUSA title game. This will be a difficult game. UAB will probably be playing for a conference title next year. This will be a tough game.

- @Ohio State. Probably even more difficult than going to Oklahoma this year. At least this game will be on national TV. Hopefully showing off 2 undefeated teams. Keeping this game close even for the first half would be great for publicity.

Conference:

Home games: East Carolina, Memphis, Navy, SMU

- ECU and SMU, we should take care of soundly. I think SMU takes a big step back next year. Even if their bowl game was decievingly bad. Dykes is a totally different system than Morris and will take time to implement. ECU doesn't scare me at all. So we'll probably lose.

-Navy, absolutey destroyed a decent Virginia team in a down year. Navy is the most consistent program outside the P5. Always tough. Still think we'll finally get over the Navy hump this year at home.

- Memphis, man o man. I was so sad to watch them lose that heartbreaker against ISU. 1 point and at home! That game would've put AAC undefeated against p5 in bowl games. One freaking point! Regardless their AD should be comended for keeping Norvell. They have to be the obvious favorite at winning the west next year. Although they do lose their star QB and WR. Norvell seems to be an offensive whiz so it'll be interesting to see who emerges.

Road games: Cincinnati, Houston, USF, Tulsa

- Tulsa, shocked that their 2017 turned out the way it did. Lots predicted that they would compete for the west title. Hopefully Fritz has Montgomery figured out. They also lose quite a bit. Should be able to get the W here.

- Cincy, seems like a should be win. But somehow we screwed the pooch against them this year. Fickell, their young coach has proved he can bring in top talent. Won 4 games in his first year. We'll see how he develops as a HC. I think we have a 50/50 chance at this one at best.

- Houston, USF: these both seem about the same to me. Both rosters chalk full of supreme talent. Both have coaches with big names. But both coaches seem very shakey, even though they put up 7 and 10 wins this year. I could equally see us go in and win these games as much as I could see us getting blown out. Houston lost to Fresno in Hawaii. Very dissapointing result as they had the victory just let it slip in the waning moments. USF on the other hand held on and beat Texas Tech by 4. Thus avenging Houston's loss to Texas Tech, by 3. And in turn Houston beat USF by 4. So basically all have p5 talent with mid-major coaches.

It's way too early to make any sort of prediction. But I'm already pumped. Lots of good teams on the schedule. Lots of opportunities for wins. We whiffed this year on about 5 games that would've gotten us a bowl game. I'm hoping next we don't only get over the bowl hump but smash it out of the park and challenge for a West title!

Happy New Year Greenies! Here's to 2018 coming up Olive and Blue!
Last edited by Ruski on Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:24 pm

6-6 would be considered a very good result.

I would REALLY like to see if TD could somehow pull off a scheduling coup where Tulane plays an away game that corresponds with a Saints' away game. Possibilities next year include Cincy (2 shots at this one), Tampa and Atlanta/Birmingham.
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nawlinspete
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Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:11 pm

Nine of our 12 opponents played in bowl games this past season....
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Ruski
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Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:23 pm

nawlinspete wrote:Nine of our 12 opponents played in bowl games this past season....
And they went 3-5*. (3-6 but do we really count Grambling?)

The teams we play next year went 4-4. It's a more difficult schedule. Still, I feel more confident than coming into this season.
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tpstulane
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Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:47 pm

nawlinspete wrote:Nine of our 12 opponents played in bowl games this past season....
So what. 78 out of 130 D1 teams go bowling.
Only 52 stay home. If you stay home shame on you. Getting a bowl game these days is no big accomplishment when all it takes is 6-6.
8-4 or better is an accomplishment.
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RobertM320
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Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:01 pm

Ruski wrote:
nawlinspete wrote:Nine of our 12 opponents played in bowl games this past season....
And they went 3-5*. (3-6 but do we really count Grambling?)

The teams we play next year went 4-4. It's a more difficult schedule. Still, I feel more confident than coming into this season.
Should we really count SMU either?

But in all seriousness, that's not how college works. Players graduate, and new players take their place. Teams are different from year to year. Look at SMU. Sure, they were 7-5, but they're losing not one but BOTH of their star receivers, in addition to their coach. No way they're the same team next season. Houston of 2017 and Houston 2016 were totally different teams. And we don't even have to bring up 2015 UCF to 2017 UCF. You can't just look at results from this season and assume its the same for next year. For one, we're going to be a much better team. We were a missed FG and an inch from being 7-5. The schedule is basically the same, swapping out OU for Ohio State, Army for Wake Forest, @FIU for @UAB, and Grambling for Nicholls State. I think that's pretty much a wash. Conference schedule is the same. Where do you see the "more difficult"? And even if it is, we're better as well, so we should still be 7-5 at minimum.
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Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:06 pm

Ruski wrote:With 2017 football season in the books, with just an SEC exhibition game left to play, UCF crowned national champion, I think it's interesting to look ahead to 2018. Also coming back to work today really sucks.

Greenies bring back a lot. Biggest losses will be Hilliard and Badie on offense. Defense loses a lot more: Nickerson, Aruna, Franklin, Wilson, Marbley.

I really think we'll be able to plug and play Dauphine, Huderson at running back. Also the defense looked pretty shaky this year and I think a big part of it was that the senior leaders, while they made some fantastic plays also disappeared when we needed to make big stops. I'm hoping that some of the younger guys who got some time playing will be able to step in and play at least as well if not better.

Regardless I feel our O will continue to progress. First time since 2012 we'll know the QB confidently. That's huge.

Oh and we have the most talented incoming freshman class probably of this century.

Looking to the fall....

- Wake opening @Yulman will be a big, big game. I'll definitely be coming down for it. Should set the tone for the whole season. Wake ended up 8-5 and beat TA&M in their bowl game. Wake brings back most of their starters and should probably end up in the top 40 or so teams next year, competing near the top of the ACC.

We should ring up Nicholls.

- @UAB. First season back and they make a bowl game! Only 3 points away from playing in CUSA title game. This will be a difficult game. UAB will probably be playing for a conference title next year. This will be a tough game.

- @Ohio State. Probably even more difficult than going to Oklahoma this year. At least this game will be on national TV. Hopefully showing off 2 undefeated teams. Keeping this game close even for the first half would be great for publicity.

Conference:

Home games: East Carolina, Memphis, Navy, SMU

- ECU and SMU, we should take care of soundly. I think SMU takes a big step back next year. Even if their bowl game was decievingly bad. Dykes is a totally different system than Morris and will take time to implement. ECU doesn't scare me at all. So we'll probably lose.

-Navy, absolutey destroyed a decent Virginia team in a down year. Navy is the most consistent program outside the P5. Always tough. Still think we'll finally get over the Navy hump this year at home.

- Memphis, man o man. I was so sad to watch them lose that heartbreaker against ISU. 1 point and at home! That game would've put AAC undefeated against p5 in bowl games. One freaking point! Regardless their AD should be comended for keeping Norvell. They have to be the obvious favorite at winning the west next year. Although they do lose their star QB and WR. Norvell seems to be an offensive whiz so it'll be interesting to see who emerges.

Road games: Cincinnati, Houston, USF, Tulsa

- Tulsa, shocked that their 2017 turned out the way it did. Lots predicted that they would compete for the west title. Hopefully Fritz has Montgomery figured out. They also lose quite a bit. Should be able to get the W here.

- Cincy, seems like a should be win. But somehow we screwed the pooch against them this year. Fickell, their young coach has proved he can bring in top talent. Won 4 games in his first year. We'll see how he develops as a HC. I think we have a 50/50 chance at this one at best.

- Houston, USF: these both seem about the same to me. Both rosters chalk full of supreme talent. Both have coaches with big names. But both coaches seem very shakey, even though they put up 7 and 10 wins this year. I could equally see us go in and win these games as much as I could see us getting blown out. Houston lost to Fresno in Hawaii. Very dissapointing result as they had the victory just let it slip in the waning moments. USF on the other hand held on and beat Texas Tech by 4. Thus avenging Houston's loss to Texas Tech, by 3. And in turn Houston beat USF by 4. So basically all have p5 talent with mid-major coaches.

It's way too early to make any sort of prediction. But I'm already pumped. Lots of good teams on the schedule. Lots of opportunities for wins. We whiffed this year on about 5 games that would've gotten us a bowl game. I'm hoping next we don't only get over the bowl hump but smash it out of the park and challenge for a West title!

Happy New Year Greenies! Here's to 2018 coming up Olive and Blue!
Pretty good take.

As to Wake they won't be top 40. They lose their QB. It took him till this year to be really good. They won't have anyone nearly that productive in game one next year. If we improve the way we all hope and expect us too on the offensive side of the ball we should absolutely beat Wake. If we don't we'll back in scrambling mode hoping to figure out how we can scratch out 6 wins.


UAB has a good coach and brings back a lot. Yet that is still CUSA level and a game we should win.

We'll lose to Ohio St. but hopefully we can compete for 4 quarters.

As for the home conference opponents only Memphis will be tough. ECU and SMU are expected wins. Navy has a good coach but they are slipping back and will be changing QB's again. We should win it. Memphis is beatable b/c their D is bad. We should have a chance to win a shootout with them.

As for the OOC away games all are winnable. Tulsa and Cincy are expected wins. Strong is a good coach at this level but they lose the QB and he was their team. Houston has some talent but not a good coach. We beat them this year and again if our offense makes the leap we expect it's a winnable game.

We didn't play anybody that played in a quality Bowl Game. Other than OSU next year we won't play anybody that played in a quality Bowl this year.

The offensive line will again be our biggest hurdle to overcome. Hopefully the transfer will help and maybe we'll get another transfer or 2 there. The loss of Hilliard will be bigger than most think. He could sliver thru the tiniest of cracks and had great vision that most don't have. I believe Dauphine will be good but he hasn't done anything yet at this level. Huderson is much smaller than anything he's listed at. He didn't get much action this year and it lessened as the season went on.

We did lose a lot on D. The problem was schematic more than it was failed leadership by any of our seniors. We'll see what changes the staff makes there.

We should be in contention in the West. It should be a fun season with several shootouts. Looking forward to it.
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Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:19 pm

I don't think we will really know what king of Team we will have next year until after Spring Practice. Coach went on record that they think they really hit on this years recruiting class yet only a handful played big roles. If we did hit then this years class needs only to fill a few spots if we didn't and need to depend on a ton of FR.and it will be the same thing all over again.
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Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:29 am

"We didn't play anybody that played in a quality Bowl Game. Other than OSU next year we won't play anybody that played in a quality Bowl this year."

Holding my fingers back..... Agh! Very difficult not to respond.... I've turned over a new leaf in 2018. Don't want to fall into the trap that others have fallen into on the Notre Dame thread....
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Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:09 pm

Wavetrader wrote:"We didn't play anybody that played in a quality Bowl Game. Other than OSU next year we won't play anybody that played in a quality Bowl this year."

Holding my fingers back..... Agh! Very difficult not to respond.... I've turned over a new leaf in 2018. Don't want to fall into the trap that others have fallen into on the Notre Dame thread....
+1

USF....Memphis....Army....Navy....Houston...Oklahoma....
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Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:08 pm

Ruski wrote:
Wavetrader wrote:"We didn't play anybody that played in a quality Bowl Game. Other than OSU next year we won't play anybody that played in a quality Bowl this year."

Holding my fingers back..... Agh! Very difficult not to respond.... I've turned over a new leaf in 2018. Don't want to fall into the trap that others have fallen into on the Notre Dame thread....
+1

USF....Memphis....Army....Navy....Houston...Oklahoma....
No trap to fall into. Be respectful to all and know what you're talking about. I made a typo by saying we didn't play any this year. I thought I had put "other than Oklahoma". I was wrong not to include Memphis in the Liberty. As tps said elsewhere 78 teams now make Bowls and only 52 don't. It's just weak argument to throw out "they were a Bowl team". It just doesn't have much substance to it anymore.
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Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:26 am

4 wins in 2016, 5 wins in 2017, so 6 wins in 2018 (a natural progression, 4-4 in AAC). Tulane gets to a bowl game, but loses it. Will the TU fans be satisfied with 3 losing Fritz seasons? Hmmm, . . . , one must wonder about that. Do you really extend the contract of a HC who has not had a winning season over 3 years? Again, one must wonder.

The FB program continues to progress, but is the overall record good enough?
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Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:10 am

I know you are what your record says you are, but I still see 2017 as basically a 7 win team. The only FG we missed all season happened to be at the end of the Cincy game. Make that one kick and have the SMU debacle go differently and you're 7-5. So there's no reason to think we can't win 7 this year, because I am convinced we're going to continue to improve.
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Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:33 pm

I just want to make a damn bowl game... whether we are 6-6, 7-5, 8-4, just get us to a bowl game. By getting us to a bowl game will also show natural progression that our program is improving. Fritz year 1 4-8, Fritz year 2 5-7, Fritz year 3, ?. Let us not regress, but progress! Onward to a bowl game. Happy New Year and Roll DAMN wave!
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Sat May 26, 2018 12:32 am

winwave wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:08 pm
Ruski wrote:
Wavetrader wrote:"We didn't play anybody that played in a quality Bowl Game. Other than OSU next year we won't play anybody that played in a quality Bowl this year."

Holding my fingers back..... Agh! Very difficult not to respond.... I've turned over a new leaf in 2018. Don't want to fall into the trap that others have fallen into on the Notre Dame thread....
+1

USF....Memphis....Army....Navy....Houston...Oklahoma....
No trap to fall into. Be respectful to all and know what you're talking about. I made a typo by saying we didn't play any this year. I thought I had put "other than Oklahoma". I was wrong not to include Memphis in the Liberty. As tps said elsewhere 78 teams now make Bowls and only 52 don't. It's just weak argument to throw out "they were a Bowl team". It just doesn't have much substance to it anymore.
And D said I never admitted I was wrong. Busted. LOl.
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Sat May 26, 2018 7:22 am

Wow, you found one thread where you admitted to a typo. Good for you. Busted? LMFAO.!!!
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Sat May 26, 2018 8:10 am

DfromCT wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 7:22 am
Wow, you found one thread where you admitted to a typo. Good for you. Busted? LMFAO.!!!
Hilarious! Busted! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Sat May 26, 2018 9:26 am

DfromCT wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 7:22 am
Wow, you found one thread where you admitted to a typo. Good for you. Busted? LMFAO.!!!
I see you still can't read. I admitted I was wrong not to include Memphis. But we all know you won't admit you were wrong.
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Sat May 26, 2018 9:36 am

Nice try! Seriously. You're giving it your all, winwave, and just coming up short. But nice try.
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Sat May 26, 2018 9:37 am

LOL. See I told you he couldn't admit it.
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