AAC Attempts at Power Status

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winwave
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Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:49 pm

winwave wrote:Has a long way to go:

https://collegefootball.ap.org/article/ ... ong-way-go
You gotta love Aresco, though.
"They are giving me the ammunition that we need," Aresco said. "And now it's coming to the point where they'll be a tipping point. We're going to have to do some things and become aggressive because you can't just sit back. It's not going to just happen by alchemy or magic, believe me."
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Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:21 pm

I do. He's the best thing we and all the other schools in this conference have going for them.
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tpstulane
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:21 pm

Stadiums get old, winning never does.
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:21 pm

Frankly, I think the AAC becoming the sixth "Power" conference and getting TV deals and access to the ESPN tournament is more likely to happen than Tulane getting an invite to a P5. It could be that the P5 become P4, 4 conferences of 16 Universities each. The next 5-10 years are going to see a lot of change, and dust settling with a clear distinction between the haves and the have nots. Right now we're on the outside looking in, with better choices in our conference and in other G5 conferences ahead of us.

"Tulane will get in because of our AAU status" BS
"Tulane will get in because of our geographic location" BS
"Tulane will get in because of our history" BS

TULANE WILL GET IN ONLY BY WINNING BETWEEN NOW AND WHEN THE BIG CUT COMES. Without winning, we're left out. A P5 that invited Tulane would get the same treatment the Big East got when we were invited to join. WE NEED TO WIN.

But back to my hypothesis: There's a better chance of the AAC becoming the sixth power conference than Tulane getting that magical invite.

Sorry to be brutally honest, but let's not look at this through Olive Green and Sky Blue glasses.
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winwave
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:37 pm

It goes without saying that we'll need to win to get in if there's more movement. Plus it won't be enough to just win but we'll have to win consistently against quality opposition. We'll need to win some NY6 Bowls too. Then throw in those other things to edge out others.
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winwave
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:39 pm

tpstulane wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:21 pm
Commissioner Aresco pushing P6
https://www.facebook.com/AmericanConf/v ... 341934831/
Thanks for the link. Gotta love the man. The next TV contract in 2020 will tell us all we need to know. AAC needs to win the next two NY6 Bowls.
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:47 pm

The AAC isn't getting anything close to P5 TV money in 2020, even if it goes undefeated in bowl games the next two years. Our ratings don't justify P5 money. We may get a significant bump, but nothing close to $25 - 35 million per University. I hope the conference signs a bunch of short term deals and keeps knocking down doors.

But you do have to love Aresco for trying!
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:09 pm

No one said we'll get that but if it's not a significant increase over our current TV money then P6 status isn't going to happen.
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:22 pm

Getting to the 8-12 range would be huge. Also not getting locked into a long deal will be important. We've long heard that Facebook/Amazon/Twitter/Netflix/ETC are coming to disrupt the sports market. The way AAC becomes p6 is by figuring out what the winning horse looks like and jumping on early.

The other alternative is that college football isn't part of the winning horse at all and only the SEC/Big10 survive and esports/new sports kill off college football as we know it.
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:27 am

If the AAC gets more than $5M per team for TV money only, it would be surprising.

The primary issues facing the AAC at the negotiating table will be:
1. Viewership
2. Number of serious bidders and
3. Navy has a separate tv deal with CBS

Oddly enough, the biggest game in terms of viewership of the regular season for the AAC was the Army v. Navy game with 8.42M viewers, and no other regular season game came close. The only truly big conference game was USF and UCF which had around half that amount of viewers.
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:21 am

Directly, winning has little to do with getting into the "P Club". The primary requirement for an individual school getting into a P conference is it's ability to generate revenue--from filling at least 40,000 seats each weekend, to attracting hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of TV viewers. It's the same for the AAC. The AAC can't win it's way into P status, it has to attract fans like P conferences do. If the AAC can do that, its stadiums will be filled like most P schools (excluding a few P parasite schools), and it will get P-like TV contracts--at that point it would the P6 conference. I admire what Aresco is trying to do, but nobody is going to suddenly get up and make an official proclamation that the AAC is now a P conference, here's a big check--it will happen on its own, if the stadiums are consistently filled, and the TV audiences are consistently large. Indirectly, winning does matter, as we all know you can't get the fans without the wins.
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:16 am

HoustonWave wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:21 am
Directly, winning has little to do with getting into the "P Club". The primary requirement for an individual school getting into a P conference is it's ability to generate revenue--from filling at least 40,000 seats each weekend, to attracting hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of TV viewers. It's the same for the AAC. The AAC can't win it's way into P status, it has to attract fans like P conferences do. If the AAC can do that, its stadiums will be filled like most P schools (excluding a few P parasite schools), and it will get P-like TV contracts--at that point it would the P6 conference. I admire what Aresco is trying to do, but nobody is going to suddenly get up and make an official proclamation that the AAC is now a P conference, here's a big check--it will happen on its own, if the stadiums are consistently filled, and the TV audiences are consistently large. Indirectly, winning does matter, as we all know you can't get the fans without the wins.
Totally agree. Viewership drives money. Enough people have to care about the games and watch. While it's a big deal for AAC followers, how many people nationally really care about games between UCF-USF, UCF-Houston, Houston-Memphis? Each P5 has 3-4 teams that are always in demand and always drive ratings. The closest thing the AAC has to that is Navy and it's really because it's a Service Academy, not because it's a football power. The AAC needs 2-3 programs that are always in the top 15 because games between top 15's always matter. P5 top 15's are never going to schedule top 15 AAC teams so you have to generate the interest internally.
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:43 am

HoustonWave wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:21 am
Directly, winning has little to do with getting into the "P Club". The primary requirement for an individual school getting into a P conference is it's ability to generate revenue--from filling at least 40,000 seats each weekend, to attracting hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of TV viewers. It's the same for the AAC. The AAC can't win it's way into P status, it has to attract fans like P conferences do. If the AAC can do that, its stadiums will be filled like most P schools (excluding a few P parasite schools), and it will get P-like TV contracts--at that point it would the P6 conference. I admire what Aresco is trying to do, but nobody is going to suddenly get up and make an official proclamation that the AAC is now a P conference, here's a big check--it will happen on its own, if the stadiums are consistently filled, and the TV audiences are consistently large. Indirectly, winning does matter, as we all know you can't get the fans without the wins.
You argue the same points I do. Winning brings fans. Winning gets people to care and watch. Not winning, no interest, no fans, no support, no invite.

As far as conference viewership (is that a word?) goes, here's some fun late season comparisons:

UCF vs USF on 11/24 for some reason has no rating but was watched by 4.642 million viewers
That same weekend (Thanksgiving):
Clemson vs South Caroline (arch rivals) 2.2 rating, 4.032 viewers (-610k)
ND vs. Stanford 11/25 PRIME TIME 3 rating, 5.259 viewers (+617K)

The following week, all games Saturday 12/2:
UCF vs. Memphis (AAC Championship) 2.3 rating and 3.385 million viewers
Clemson vs. Miami (ACC Championship PRIME TIME) 3.2 rating and 5.428 million viewers (+2.043 million)
Boise St. vs. Fresno State (MWC Championship) .39 rating, 623k viewers (- 2.762 million)
North Texas vs. FAU (C-USA Championship) 0 rating, 255k viewers (-3.13 million)
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:22 pm

HoustonWave wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:21 am
Directly, winning has little to do with getting into the "P Club". The primary requirement for an individual school getting into a P conference is it's ability to generate revenue--from filling at least 40,000 seats each weekend, to attracting hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of TV viewers. It's the same for the AAC. The AAC can't win it's way into P status, it has to attract fans like P conferences do. If the AAC can do that, its stadiums will be filled like most P schools (excluding a few P parasite schools), and it will get P-like TV contracts--at that point it would the P6 conference. I admire what Aresco is trying to do, but nobody is going to suddenly get up and make an official proclamation that the AAC is now a P conference, here's a big check--it will happen on its own, if the stadiums are consistently filled, and the TV audiences are consistently large. Indirectly, winning does matter, as we all know you can't get the fans without the wins.
Ummm, the ONLY thing that has any possibility of generating revenue, getting butts in seats, and attracting more TV viewers is winning...
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:48 pm

NOLABigSteve wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:22 pm
HoustonWave wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:21 am
Directly, winning has little to do with getting into the "P Club". The primary requirement for an individual school getting into a P conference is it's ability to generate revenue--from filling at least 40,000 seats each weekend, to attracting hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of TV viewers. It's the same for the AAC. The AAC can't win it's way into P status, it has to attract fans like P conferences do. If the AAC can do that, its stadiums will be filled like most P schools (excluding a few P parasite schools), and it will get P-like TV contracts--at that point it would the P6 conference. I admire what Aresco is trying to do, but nobody is going to suddenly get up and make an official proclamation that the AAC is now a P conference, here's a big check--it will happen on its own, if the stadiums are consistently filled, and the TV audiences are consistently large. Indirectly, winning does matter, as we all know you can't get the fans without the wins.
Ummm, the ONLY thing that has any possibility of generating revenue, getting butts in seats, and attracting more TV viewers is winning...
That's true, but there are ceilings in the G5. If anyone wants to claim otherwise, one can simply point them to Boise State - a program that has been a consistent winner but could not hit 32k in average attendance (incl. MWC championship game) in the 11th season since 2001 that it has finished in the final AP top 25. In terms of winning, it does not appear to much else that Boise State could do in order to get more fans in the stadium.

Houston experienced something similar in 2015 when Herman let the media know how upset he was that Houston was not selling out its stadium even though it was ranked.

The only issue that could be causing this result even though teams are winning is that maybe fans of the programs are not also fans of the schedules.
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:08 pm

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:48 pm
That's true, but there are ceilings in the G5. If anyone wants to claim otherwise, one can simply point them to Boise State - a program that has been a consistent winner but could not hit 32k in average attendance (incl. MWC championship game) in the 11th season since 2001 that it has finished in the final AP top 25. In terms of winning, it does not appear to much else that Boise State could do in order to get more fans in the stadium.

Houston experienced something similar in 2015 when Herman let the media know how upset he was that Houston was not selling out its stadium even though it was ranked.

The only issue that could be causing this result even though teams are winning is that maybe fans of the programs are not also fans of the schedules.
I agree with your post, but also feel that there's more competition for the entertainment dollar, and more recreational activities available than ever. Kids don't grow up glued to the tv set watching sports any more (they're glued to the computer, playing xbox, wii, etc!) The fan base is shrinking and both college and pro sports teams are reacting. LSU is wondering if they really needed that last expansion of their stadium. Pro teams (with the exception of Dallas Cowboys) are building smaller stadiums than the ones they replace. Boise faces a problem because of it's location. Despite being the fastest growing state in the Nation, Idaho only has 1.7 million residents, and Boise has less than 300,000 residents.

From the article mentioning LSU (despite being 7th in the nation in attendance) didn't sell out any home games last year:
Overall, FBS attendance was down for the fourth straight season to just over 34 million, or 42,108 per game compared to 43,070 in 2016.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:17 pm

DfromCT wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:08 pm
Aberzombie1892 wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:48 pm
That's true, but there are ceilings in the G5. If anyone wants to claim otherwise, one can simply point them to Boise State - a program that has been a consistent winner but could not hit 32k in average attendance (incl. MWC championship game) in the 11th season since 2001 that it has finished in the final AP top 25. In terms of winning, it does not appear to much else that Boise State could do in order to get more fans in the stadium.

Houston experienced something similar in 2015 when Herman let the media know how upset he was that Houston was not selling out its stadium even though it was ranked.

The only issue that could be causing this result even though teams are winning is that maybe fans of the programs are not also fans of the schedules.
I agree with your post, but also feel that there's more competition for the entertainment dollar, and more recreational activities available than ever. Kids don't grow up glued to the tv set watching sports any more (they're glued to the computer, playing xbox, wii, etc!) The fan base is shrinking and both college and pro sports teams are reacting. LSU is wondering if they really needed that last expansion of their stadium. Pro teams (with the exception of Dallas Cowboys) are building smaller stadiums than the ones they replace. Boise faces a problem because of it's location. Despite being the fastest growing state in the Nation, Idaho only has 1.7 million residents, and Boise has less than 300,000 residents.

From the article mentioning LSU (despite being 7th in the nation in attendance) didn't sell out any home games last year:
Overall, FBS attendance was down for the fourth straight season to just over 34 million, or 42,108 per game compared to 43,070 in 2016.
Agree with both of you. I definitely think what zombie said about the schedules is the biggest of all those issues. Hopefully the conference teams continue to get better and some conference rivalries really develop. Then improve the OOC's for all teams.
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