New AAC TV deal

UCF, Cincinnati, UConn, ECU, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, SMU, Temple, Tulsa
DfromCT
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winwave wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:17 pm This was in the other article:

"The conference is asking schools to sign a grant-of-rights agreement that theoretically would lock them into the conference for the duration of the next media rights deal."

That again says that all schools are being asked to sign GOR's.
Let me ask: What benefit does any media company get by ECU, Tulane, and Tulsa signing a GOR?

I don't doubt what Aresco says. But there's two sides of ANY negotiation.


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winwave
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They get the stability of the conference. That was made clear in the articles. But again the most important thing is Aresco's response.
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DfromCT
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winwave wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:25 pm They get the stability of the conference. That was made clear in the articles. But again the most important thing is Aresco's response.
I agree that Aresco's response would/should put an end to this conversation. But there's also the possibility going forward that EVERY D1 team ends up getting their share of TV money based upon ratings. It's a leap from what the articles say, but it's also not that far on the horizon. TV in general is moving towards pay per view.

ww, I appreciate that we can debate this without personal attacks.

My concern is Tulane needs to build a fan base, and build it quickly. I hope Troy Dannen and President Fitts have the same concern. The spread between the "haves" and the "have nots" is going to widen considerably in the next decade, even as the media money stabilizes. There's a good chance that most TV (or "broadcast media" or whatever it will be called by 2030) will be on a pay per view basis by the end of the next decade. If nobody is watching, we will not create revenue. This is a critical juncture to win and build a fan base, or risk losing the ability to compete, IMHO.

Actually, its not my humble opinion. It's my passionate love for Tulane Athletics that doesn't want to see the Green Wave get swallowed by the next 10-20 years of broadcast rights, conference alignment and fan attraction changing dramatically. I don't know what it's going to look like, I just want to be in a better position in 2025 and 2030 than we are now. Status Quo would leave us on the outside looking in.
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winwave
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D- I think you're worrying yourself needlessly as to the TV contracts. We all have much bigger things to worry about. remember there are more schools in conferences that are down the pecking order than at the top and so they have the votes. Those top schools need opponents or nobody's watching. So the other side does have leverage.

We of course agree that we need to rebuild our fan base. I've been banging that drum since these sites started. This change at OC is our best chance at getting a noticeable jump. Right or wrong offense sells tickets. If he turns out as good as we all hope we should have a chance to start winning 10 or more games sooner rather than later. Our conference is best situated to get that G5 NY6 Bowl slot. Now that will bring fans back. :D
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Aberzombie1892
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DfromCT wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:59 pm
winwave wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:17 pm This was in the other article:

"The conference is asking schools to sign a grant-of-rights agreement that theoretically would lock them into the conference for the duration of the next media rights deal."

That again says that all schools are being asked to sign GOR's.
Let me ask: What benefit does any media company get by ECU, Tulane, and Tulsa signing a GOR?

I don't doubt what Aresco says. But there's two sides of ANY negotiation.
The GOR isn't intended to protect the media rights holders for those programs - it's for Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Temple, UCF, Navy and USF to varying degrees - as those programs add -significant- value to the conference, and the loss of any of those programs would be a big blow.
Last edited by Aberzombie1892 on Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
Bicoastalwave
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Man people need to focus on critical reading and reasoning. They want EVERYONE to sign a GOR. Even if currently some of those rights are worth more than others. Stopping thinking so short term, how long ago was UCF winless ? 2015 ? And were .500 over their time in the Mac in the early 2000’s.

Remember when memphis basketball was a blue blood basketball program ? Things can change quickly, immediate success can help with ratings but there are floors and ceilings to all programs.
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DfromCT wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:41 pm
winwave wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:25 pm They get the stability of the conference. That was made clear in the articles. But again the most important thing is Aresco's response.
I agree that Aresco's response would/should put an end to this conversation. But there's also the possibility going forward that EVERY D1 team ends up getting their share of TV money based upon ratings. It's a leap from what the articles say, but it's also not that far on the horizon. TV in general is moving towards pay per view.

ww, I appreciate that we can debate this without personal attacks.

My concern is Tulane needs to build a fan base, and build it quickly. I hope Troy Dannen and President Fitts have the same concern. The spread between the "haves" and the "have nots" is going to widen considerably in the next decade, even as the media money stabilizes. There's a good chance that most TV (or "broadcast media" or whatever it will be called by 2030) will be on a pay per view basis by the end of the next decade. If nobody is watching, we will not create revenue. This is a critical juncture to win and build a fan base, or risk losing the ability to compete, IMHO.

Actually, its not my humble opinion. It's my passionate love for Tulane Athletics that doesn't want to see the Green Wave get swallowed by the next 10-20 years of broadcast rights, conference alignment and fan attraction changing dramatically. I don't know what it's going to look like, I just want to be in a better position in 2025 and 2030 than we are now. Status Quo would leave us on the outside looking in.
+1,000. This selective GOR issue (UCF, USF, Cincy, Memphis) is just the tip of the iceberg. I suspect we will see similar delineation between schools in other conferences, including the P5. In the end it won’t be Aresco that decides, it will be ESPN and other outlets. These same animal
spirits will invade the P5 conferences as well. ESPN et al won’t want to pay for the Vandys, Baylor’s, Kansas States, or Boston Colleges—and equal revenue allocation will disappear. The only way any schools will be able to attain the big bucks, will be to invest heavily and build strong fan bases. As far as the AAC rolling out selective GORs, I would be surprised if UCF and Cincy would accept the restrictions to jump conferences. Memphis should accept the GOR and increased money, as their chances for a P5 invite is substantially less. USF is a coin flip.
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Bicoastalwave wrote: Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:33 pm There is no doubt bringing in two of army/BYU/SDSU/Boise as was the original and preferred plan would help the conference from a $$ Point of view and cripple MW solidifying our position as best of g5/p6.

There was an interesting paragraph that discusses that if/when the playoff expands to 8 teams and one is an auto best of G5 spot, that would actually make it a far easier path for one of the current aac dominant teams to make the playoff than if they joined a traditional P5. For example would it be easier for UCF/houston to make the playoff being in the big 12 or if they were in the aac with an auto include from the best of G5.
Very true. And it’s that same logic that leads me to believe that in the end, OU and UT will work out their issues and stay in the Big XII—they both have a better chance of reaching the CFP from the Big XII than they would trying to duke it out through the SEC, Big 10 or PAC 12 (PAC 12 only because of travel and time zone issues, not competition).
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Aberzombie1892
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HoustonWave wrote: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:26 am +1,000. This selective GOR issue (UCF, USF, Cincy, Memphis) is just the tip of the iceberg. I suspect we will see similar delineation between schools in other conferences, including the P5. In the end it won’t be Aresco that decides, it will be ESPN and other outlets. These same animal
spirits will invade the P5 conferences as well. ESPN et al won’t want to pay for the Vandys, Baylor’s, Kansas States, or Boston Colleges—and equal revenue allocation will disappear. The only way any schools will be able to attain the big bucks, will be to invest heavily and build strong fan bases. As far as the AAC rolling out selective GORs, I would be surprised if UCF and Cincy would accept the restrictions to jump conferences. Memphis should accept the GOR and increased money, as their chances for a P5 invite is substantially less. USF is a coin flip.
But where are they going to go in the P5?

The issue with the AAC teams looking at P5s is that it is unlikely that any of the P5s other than the Big 12 would expand with them unless everyone is 100% sure the Big 12 won't collapse, and it's unclear what that would look like (one would imagine it would involve the Big 12 taking a team or two from the PAC or ACC, but that's just a guess). Even if those non-Big 12 P5s would expand, the B1G isn't taking a non-AAU school unless its something along the lines of Oklahoma or Notre Dame, the SEC isn't taking any AAC teams for a variety of reasons, and the PAC12 is not going to expand halfway across the US solely for some AAC programs. That leaves the ACC which is not going to expand now since it wants to reserve a spot for Notre Dame, which is contractually obligated to join the ACC if it joins a conference by 2035, and it's not going to have uneven divisions by expanding by 1 before Notre Dame is ready to join.

That leaves the Big 12, which is unlikely to expand as long as the ACC and the PAC12 contain potential expansion targets.
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As said before the Big 12 isn't expanding since they got the exemption from the NCAA to have a championship game without having 12 teams.
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winwave wrote: Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:30 am As said before the Big 12 isn't expanding since they got the exemption from the NCAA to have a championship game without having 12 teams.
The ONLY reason the Big 12 (10) will expand....the TV contract demands more geographic coverage...that will be the ONLY reason....the NCAA should be sued by every conference who expanded to abide by NCAA bylaws, of needing 12 teams in order to have a "championship game'
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For the record UCF was winless FOUR seasons ago (when their coach quit coaching). Three seasons ago, they were 6=7, their first year under Scott Frost. They've won 25 in a row since.
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If the Big 12 expands, it will be for TV market. There really is no other reason in today's environment. Geographicly, Florida doesn't work very well. Texas schools don't really get them anything extra. Memphis has already been rebuffed academically. Cinncinati and Temple bring TV market and a neighbor for West Virginia, but Temple's stadium situation may create uncertainty. Tulane fits perfectly for geography, academics and TV market. As for fan support and program quality, playing Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St on a regular basis instantly increases that.

If wanting to poach 2 schools, Cinncinati and Tulane would be the obvious choices. Note: this would not be the case if Cowen were still polluting the President's office. All this being said, poaching the AAC probably doesn't bring that much extra value to anyone. The only reason to poach would be an attempt to destroy the AAC's value, and I'm not sure anyone really has that motive.
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DfromCT wrote: Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:14 pm For the record UCF was winless FOUR seasons ago (when their coach quit coaching). Three seasons ago, they were 6=7, their first year under Scott Frost. They've won 25 in a row since.
Why do you post here when your heart is torn between Storrs and Orlando ? Get off the pot ....
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DfromCT
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nawlinspete wrote: Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:42 pm
DfromCT wrote: Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:14 pm For the record UCF was winless FOUR seasons ago (when their coach quit coaching). Three seasons ago, they were 6=7, their first year under Scott Frost. They've won 25 in a row since.
Why do you post here when your heart is torn between Storrs and Orlando ? Get off the pot ....
I'm a Tulane graduate, class of 1985. I've never posted, or even visited a board like this associated with UCF or UConn. Stop smoking pot and posting, maybe your posts MIGHT make sense every now and then. And by the way, if you want to post intelligently (a challenge for you, I know) you might want to find out how many games UConn plays in Storrs in the three major sports. It's less than 10 percent. Get a clue and get a life
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Aberzombie1892 wrote: Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:12 am
HoustonWave wrote: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:26 am +1,000. This selective GOR issue (UCF, USF, Cincy, Memphis) is just the tip of the iceberg. I suspect we will see similar delineation between schools in other conferences, including the P5. In the end it won’t be Aresco that decides, it will be ESPN and other outlets. These same animal
spirits will invade the P5 conferences as well. ESPN et al won’t want to pay for the Vandys, Baylor’s, Kansas States, or Boston Colleges—and equal revenue allocation will disappear. The only way any schools will be able to attain the big bucks, will be to invest heavily and build strong fan bases. As far as the AAC rolling out selective GORs, I would be surprised if UCF and Cincy would accept the restrictions to jump conferences. Memphis should accept the GOR and increased money, as their chances for a P5 invite is substantially less. USF is a coin flip.
But where are they going to go in the P5?

The issue with the AAC teams looking at P5s is that it is unlikely that any of the P5s other than the Big 12 would expand with them unless everyone is 100% sure the Big 12 won't collapse, and it's unclear what that would look like (one would imagine it would involve the Big 12 taking a team or two from the PAC or ACC, but that's just a guess). Even if those non-Big 12 P5s would expand, the B1G isn't taking a non-AAU school unless its something along the lines of Oklahoma or Notre Dame, the SEC isn't taking any AAC teams for a variety of reasons, and the PAC12 is not going to expand halfway across the US solely for some AAC programs. That leaves the ACC which is not going to expand now since it wants to reserve a spot for Notre Dame, which is contractually obligated to join the ACC if it joins a conference by 2035, and it's not going to have uneven divisions by expanding by 1 before Notre Dame is ready to join.

That leaves the Big 12, which is unlikely to expand as long as the ACC and the PAC12 contain potential expansion targets.
Currently there is no impetus for any P5 to expand—though the PAC 12 has some serious issues and will have to do something to stay competitive—probably trying to expand east. I’m counting on across the board expansion once revenue fails to grow, cost cutting becomes imperative and disproportionate revenue allocation negates dilution concerns of the football factories. Tulane would already be in a P5 if the football factories didn’t have to worry about the dilution that Tulane would invariably bring to any P5 conference.
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