CFP Question

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CFP Question

Postby RobertM320 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:01 pm

I was just wondering anyone is familiar with exactly how the CFP arrangement works? My understanding is that the agreement was signed off on by all ten conferences. And what we got in exchange for that was one spot in the NY6 bowls guaranteed to go to best of the G5s. Now, suppose we end up with a situation where ND makes the CFP, and Ga goes undefeated and ends up beating Alabama in the SECCG. At that point either Alabama gets left out, or three of the P5 conferences get left out. You know that's going to increase the pressure to go to eight teams. So, could the G5s band together at that point and refuse to agree to sign off on that unless one of the 8 spots was guaranteed to a G5? Or would that push the P5s to just split off at that point? Just wondering what the thought process is on this? Unless I'm wrong on how the CFP works.


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Re: CFP Question

Postby GreenPuddleSplash » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:32 pm

Isn't that also why the CFP have a committee of members who evaluate situations like you're describing i.e.; bama losing to GA etc? I thought the committee was supposed to evaluate all the teams and then select 4 of the top teams to play in the CFP. Also, remember, Ohio St. snuck into the CFP last year with 1 loss even though they didn't win the B1G (PSU had 1 brutal loss, but won the B1G and was pushed out of the CFP).



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Re: CFP Question

Postby golfnut69 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:48 pm

GreenPuddleSplash wrote:Isn't that also why the CFP have a committee of members who evaluate situations like you're describing i.e.; bama losing to GA etc? I thought the committee was supposed to evaluate all the teams and then select 4 of the top teams to play in the CFP. Also, remember, Ohio St. snuck into the CFP last year with 1 loss even though they didn't win the B1G (PSU had 1 brutal loss, but won the B1G and was pushed out of the CFP).


OSU got in and undefeated TCU was left out


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Re: CFP Question

Postby RobertM320 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:44 pm

So they put Alabama in. Can they really leave an undefeated Georgia out? And hard to argue with a 12-1 ND and an undefeated Penn State. So lets say you go with undefeated GA and Penn St and one-loss ALA and ND. So where does that leave undefeated TCU, an undefeated Miami, and one loss Ohio State and Wisconsin, along with maybe an undefeated UCF? They'll find it hard to justify a 4 team playoff taking two one loss teams and leaving 3 undefeated teams home. Which brings me back to the original question. At this point, you know they'll realize four just won't cut it when you're leaving 3 undefeated teams home so they'll want to expand. Do the G5 schools have the power at this point to hold their vote in exchange for one guaranteed spot. It can still be selected by the committee, for all I care, because they'll almost always pick the best AAC team over one of the other G4 conferences. Just wondering if this opens the door.


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Re: CFP Question

Postby DfromCT » Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:04 pm

RobertM320 wrote:So they put Alabama in. Can they really leave an undefeated Georgia out? And hard to argue with a 12-1 ND and an undefeated Penn State. So lets say you go with undefeated GA and Penn St and one-loss ALA and ND. So where does that leave undefeated TCU, an undefeated Miami, and one loss Ohio State and Wisconsin, along with maybe an undefeated UCF? They'll find it hard to justify a 4 team playoff taking two one loss teams and leaving 3 undefeated teams home. Which brings me back to the original question. At this point, you know they'll realize four just won't cut it when you're leaving 3 undefeated teams home so they'll want to expand. Do the G5 schools have the power at this point to hold their vote in exchange for one guaranteed spot. It can still be selected by the committee, for all I care, because they'll almost always pick the best AAC team over one of the other G4 conferences. Just wondering if this opens the door.


If Alabama loses to Georgia why do they get in? There's no automatic bid for the Crimson Tide. Certainly an undefeated USF, with the nations longest winning streak would be hard to snub. ND would be on the outside looking in if there were that many undefeated teams. One thing that I've noticed since the NCAA went to the BCS Championship game (before the playoff) is that a lot of the "what ifs" seem to take care of themselves in the last 4-6 weeks of the season. Ohio State is probably out already, having lost to OU who lost to Iowa State (knocking out OU). IF TCU goes undefeated they're bound to get in. Unless Miami goes undefeated, the ACC is likely out this year. Thanks to Syracuse beating Clemson. The PAC 12 is likely out as well.

Your point is more about the outcry to expand the playoff to 8 teams. I don't know that the G5 would be guaranteed a spot even at 8. I would certainly hope so. But there are factions within the NCAA and within the various P5 conferences that are very serious about a greater separation of the P5 and G5. It's vitally important that the AAC get into the fraternity of "Power" conferences, because there's at minimum a 50% chance that the split between the P5 and G5 widens a whole lot more in the next ten years. Keep in mind, the P5 (plus ND) already has powers that no others at any level have.


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Re: CFP Question

Postby Aberzombie1892 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:58 pm

golfnut69 wrote:
GreenPuddleSplash wrote:Isn't that also why the CFP have a committee of members who evaluate situations like you're describing i.e.; bama losing to GA etc? I thought the committee was supposed to evaluate all the teams and then select 4 of the top teams to play in the CFP. Also, remember, Ohio St. snuck into the CFP last year with 1 loss even though they didn't win the B1G (PSU had 1 brutal loss, but won the B1G and was pushed out of the CFP).


OSU got in and undefeated TCU was left out


You're thinking about 2014 where 1 loss OSU won the B1G and 1 loss TCU was left out. Last year, Oklahoma won the Big 12 with 2 losses and Penn State won the B1G with 2 losses, so the CFP went with 1 loss OSU with an OOC win over Oklahoma.

RobertM320 wrote:So they put Alabama in. Can they really leave an undefeated Georgia out? And hard to argue with a 12-1 ND and an undefeated Penn State. So lets say you go with undefeated GA and Penn St and one-loss ALA and ND. So where does that leave undefeated TCU, an undefeated Miami, and one loss Ohio State and Wisconsin, along with maybe an undefeated UCF? They'll find it hard to justify a 4 team playoff taking two one loss teams and leaving 3 undefeated teams home. Which brings me back to the original question. At this point, you know they'll realize four just won't cut it when you're leaving 3 undefeated teams home so they'll want to expand. Do the G5 schools have the power at this point to hold their vote in exchange for one guaranteed spot. It can still be selected by the committee, for all I care, because they'll almost always pick the best AAC team over one of the other G4 conferences. Just wondering if this opens the door.


As a preliminary matter, it is extremely unlikely that the CFP will place two teams from the same conference, and, because so much is going to change between now and the end of the season, it's virtually a wasted exercise to pretend to figure out what the end will look like.

That being said, this is what we know:
1. The issue with Notre Dame is that the best that it can do is 11-1 and not 12-1, and, because no 11-1 team has made the CFP without defeating the champ of another P5, it's extremely unlikely that Notre Dame will make the playoff even with an 11-1 record unless at least one of NC State, Miami, Michigan State, or Stanford wins their respective conference.
2. A team that loses its championship game does not have a strong argument for being in the top 4, as it has lost its most recent game, but an 11-1 non-champ can get in with a elite OOC win if the champ has 2 losses. This hypothetical 11-1 team would have to be in the same division as the conference champ.
3. No 12-1 conference champ team has been left out of the CFP, but there has also not been 5 12-1 conference champs at once or 4 12-1 conference champs with a 1 loss Notre Dame at once.
4. The remaining PAC12 1 loss teams have the worst OOC schedules out of the remaining 1 loss or less CFP contenders, and this would factor in during head to head rankings even if those head to head rankings do not come into play until the final CFP ranking (i.e. 2014 Baylor and TCU).
5. No two loss team has made the CFP.
6. No G5 has come remotely close to reaching the CFP, and, given how the first few years have unfolded, it's extremely unlikely that will change in the current format.

Because of the above, and, because conference play will weed out teams, it's extremely unlikely that there will be a big mess at the end of the year, so there is no need to hold our breath for a chaos.



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Re: CFP Question

Postby DfromCT » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:51 pm

USC has a very real chance to win the PAC 12, and Notre Dame just schooled them. But you're right there's a whole lot of football to be played and a lot of this will shake out in the next 6 or 7 weeks.


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Re: CFP Question

Postby RobertM320 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:52 am

I wasn't worried about the specifics as much as the concept. The scenario I posted was set up to have as many undefeated teams as possible, therefore TCU, Miami, an undefeated AAC team and an undefeated SEC team. I wasn't saying Alabama had an auto bid, but GPS's post suggested that its up to the committee to choose who THEY FEEL are the 4 best teams. Everyone pretty much assumes that Alabama is the best in the country, but suppose they do get upset in the CG by Georgia? I was just creating a scenario where there's going to be enough schools disgruntled with being left out that it fuels the conversation regarding expanding the playoff.

And still, no one has addressed my question. If they do look to expand, it take the ten conferences agreeing, so would the G5 have a case to stonewall in favor of one spot for the best of G5?


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Re: CFP Question

Postby winwave » Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:07 am

I doubt it. The split is going to come sooner than later in all likelihood and trying to block this would probably just hasten it.


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Re: CFP Question

Postby OUG » Wed Oct 25, 2017 3:59 pm

RobertM320 wrote:So they put Alabama in. Can they really leave an undefeated Georgia out? And hard to argue with a 12-1 ND and an undefeated Penn State. So lets say you go with undefeated GA and Penn St and one-loss ALA and ND. So where does that leave undefeated TCU, an undefeated Miami, and one loss Ohio State and Wisconsin, along with maybe an undefeated UCF? They'll find it hard to justify a 4 team playoff taking two one loss teams and leaving 3 undefeated teams home. Which brings me back to the original question. At this point, you know they'll realize four just won't cut it when you're leaving 3 undefeated teams home so they'll want to expand. Do the G5 schools have the power at this point to hold their vote in exchange for one guaranteed spot. It can still be selected by the committee, for all I care, because they'll almost always pick the best AAC team over one of the other G4 conferences. Just wondering if this opens the door.


Miami and ND play one another, so at least that will settle itself of on the field. Miami can't be undefeated if ND has only one loss.



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Re: CFP Question

Postby Aberzombie1892 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:43 pm

OUG wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:So they put Alabama in. Can they really leave an undefeated Georgia out? And hard to argue with a 12-1 ND and an undefeated Penn State. So lets say you go with undefeated GA and Penn St and one-loss ALA and ND. So where does that leave undefeated TCU, an undefeated Miami, and one loss Ohio State and Wisconsin, along with maybe an undefeated UCF? They'll find it hard to justify a 4 team playoff taking two one loss teams and leaving 3 undefeated teams home. Which brings me back to the original question. At this point, you know they'll realize four just won't cut it when you're leaving 3 undefeated teams home so they'll want to expand. Do the G5 schools have the power at this point to hold their vote in exchange for one guaranteed spot. It can still be selected by the committee, for all I care, because they'll almost always pick the best AAC team over one of the other G4 conferences. Just wondering if this opens the door.


Miami and ND play one another, so at least that will settle itself of on the field. Miami can't be undefeated if ND has only one loss.


This. It's way to early to ponder what the end of the season will like like. For example, it's possible that Notre Dame will not lose again, defeat the AAC champ, and be solidly a top 4 team in the final CFP rankings, but, at the same time, it's possible that Notre Dame loses this weekend against NC State and is eliminated. Similar examples can be made with the ACC and PAC12 conferences having either 1 loss or two loss champs.



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Re: CFP Question

Postby DfromCT » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:05 pm

I got caught up in the possibilities as well for a post or two. I think we all can agree that there's plenty of season left for all of the different scenarios to play themselves out. Not all, but most of the top teams are going to stub their toes.

But Robert's point has NOTHING to do with who will or will not be undefeated, once defeated, conference champs, etc. This whole thread, unless I misunderstand his posts both to start the thread and within the thread, is about whether or not there will be enough pressure created this year to expand the playoff to 8, and if so, does the G5 get a seat at the table?


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Re: CFP Question

Postby RobertM320 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:10 pm

Thank you, D. That was my question. Is it possible that enough schools end up with legitimate gripes about being left out that it reopens the issue of increasing to eight. If that does happen, can the G5 get a seat at the table?


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Re: CFP Question

Postby Aberzombie1892 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:17 pm

RobertM320 wrote:Thank you, D. That was my question. Is it possible that enough schools end up with legitimate gripes about being left out that it reopens the issue of increasing to eight. If that does happen, can the G5 get a seat at the table?


Is it possible the P5 will eventually want to expand? Of course, but it's extremely unlikely to happen until an undefeated team or a 12-1 team is left out, and that's not going to happen this season, and, given that the CFP contract is up in the mid 2020s, it seems unlikely that there will be a change before then.

As for the G5 getting a reserved spot in the CFP, from the practical standpoint, that seems unlikely to happen as well since the G5 has no leverage, and, from a competitive standpoint, it would ruin the point of the playoff - which was to get the best teams in regardless of conference affiliation. It would easier for the G5 convince the P5 to support an expansion of the CFP to 16 teams in the 2020s, all conferences get rid of CCGs, and we hope that the AAC champ is undefeated.



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Re: CFP Question

Postby RobertM320 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:33 am

But the G5 does have some leverage. In order to make a change, they need the G5 votes. How long before a conference like the B12 gets tired of missing out on a spot in 4 of 5 seasons, or a Penn State goes 12-1 and gets left out two or three seasons in row? At some point these schools and conferences are going to realize its worth giving up one seat to a G5 in order to add another 3 spots for the P5s.


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Re: CFP Question

Postby Aberzombie1892 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:59 am

RobertM320 wrote:But the G5 does have some leverage. In order to make a change, they need the G5 votes. How long before a conference like the B12 gets tired of missing out on a spot in 4 of 5 seasons, or a Penn State goes 12-1 and gets left out two or three seasons in row? At some point these schools and conferences are going to realize its worth giving up one seat to a G5 in order to add another 3 spots for the P5s.


It's hard to tell, but the path to the CFP seems relatively clear given no 13-0 or 12-1 team has been left out, and, while it appears as though that could happen this season at this point in time, it's extremely unlikely that there will be 5 12-1 or better P5 champs at the end of the season, and, unlike Ohio State in 2016, there does not appear to be a non-champ P5 with an outstanding OOC win that is likely to finish 11-1. 2017 Oklahoma would fit this bill in any other conference given its win over Ohio State, but, because it is in the Big 12, it will either win the Big 12 or have at least 2 losses as it does not have a path to 11-1.



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Re: CFP Question

Postby DfromCT » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:13 am

RobertM320 wrote:But the G5 does have some leverage. In order to make a change, they need the G5 votes. How long before a conference like the B12 gets tired of missing out on a spot in 4 of 5 seasons, or a Penn State goes 12-1 and gets left out two or three seasons in row? At some point these schools and conferences are going to realize its worth giving up one seat to a G5 in order to add another 3 spots for the P5s.


If they truly believe that, then there's a prayer for the status quo. Otherwise the P5 can just spin off and create their own tournament and force the G5 to either have their own playoff or live with the bowl game affiliations. Not sure if a G5 playoff would generate more money than the bowl games, but the only hope of avoiding the big divide is to keep our fingers crossed that either the AAC gets invited to the "Power" fraternity, or the G5 gets a seat at the 8 team playoff. The expansion to 8 will happen sooner or later. So will the big split.


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Re: CFP Question

Postby RobertM320 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:25 am

There's currently 64 teams in the five P5s. I can easily see a scenario where the B12 collapses, the 10 teams get absorbed into the other four, and you get the four 16 team superconferences. Its possible if that happens that maybe Baylor and an Iowa State get left out, leaving spaces for two AAC teams. But they'd have to have shown to be solid programs in every sport, and worth value. Its quite possible the 64 teams are already in place for the superconferences. With an arrangement like that, they could actually stick with 4 teams and just give the four conf champs a spot. That would suck.


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Re: CFP Question

Postby DfromCT » Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:43 am

RobertM320 wrote:There's currently 64 teams in the five P5s. I can easily see a scenario where the B12 collapses, the 10 teams get absorbed into the other four, and you get the four 16 team superconferences. Its possible if that happens that maybe Baylor and an Iowa State get left out, leaving spaces for two AAC teams. But they'd have to have shown to be solid programs in every sport, and worth value. Its quite possible the 64 teams are already in place for the superconferences. With an arrangement like that, they could actually stick with 4 teams and just give the four conf champs a spot. That would suck.



And they can do this with or without (more likely) the blessing of the rest of the NCAA. Remember a couple of years ago the P5 were given autonomy by the NCAA. They can make their own rules, which probably means the split is coming and sooner rather than later. Iowa State is having success at the right time. We're on the outside looking in, and without strength in our marquee sports, it's unlikely that our geographic advantage will get us into the fraternity. The geographic advantage is overstated on this board, IMHO. PER CAPITA is always the rally cry. But per state puts Louisiana about 10-15 in terms of basketball and football recruiting, versus per capita which puts it in the top 5.


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Re: CFP Question

Postby RobertM320 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:15 pm

More relevant than I realized. G5 would have the opportunity here, as PAC12/B12 seem to not be dealing in a position of strength at this time. You approach those two and say, G5 will support move to 8, as long as one spot guaranteed to best of G5.



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