Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby RobertM320 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:21 am

winwave wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:The 16 team field would definitely include the best teams in the nation. Not necessarily the 16 best teams in the nation, but everyone knows there's really only the top 8 or 10 that have a legit shot. I'm looking at fairness. 1998 Tulane is once again the perfect example. I believe that team would have beaten anyone in the NCAA, with maybe the exception of Manning-led Tennessee. Maybe we could have beaten them as well. But we never got the chance to show what we could do. Suppose a team like that came out of the MAC for example, like N Illinois. 12-0, 13-0 with their championship game, and destroyed everyone they played. They at least deserve the chance to prove they're the best. It works for March Madness, which draws huge ratings. My plan gives everyone a LEGITIMATE chance to win a national title, not this pseudo arrangement they have now. There's no chance that same N Illinois team, or even an undefeated Houston team of last year is going to get into the playoff under the current format. My plan would be the fairest for everyone, if fairness matters.

AAC has proven and will continue to prove they don't belong in G5, thereby deserving their own spot. Then the G4 gets one as well, so they all have a CHANCE. The other 14 spots would probably go to P5 schools, or maybe a second AAC school in an unusual year where you had two undefeateds play in the CCG. So how can the P5 argue that having 13-14 schools in the playoff is somehow not as good for them as having 4 or 8? Its only greed.


I agree with a lot of what you say. However as much as we want the AAC to be clearly above the other G5's it hasn't proven it yet. If it is to separate itself it must win the New Years 6 Bowl Slot every year and win all the minor Bowl games the rest of our teams are in.


Win the minor bowls, absolutely yes. The problem with the NY6 bowl bid is the current system is structured to keep the AAC out of the NY6 bowl. Our strength of schedule as a whole is much, much higher than the rest of the G5s, so it becomes exponentially harder for someone to run the table from the AAC. And there will always be a Boise State, a Northern Illinois or a San Diego State that will go undefeated in a much lesser conference and get the bid. So its more difficult for us to get the NY6 bid, AND the bowl tie ins are such that we can't prove our worth against a P5 in postseason. This is what has to change first.


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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby winwave » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:54 am

I hear you but if our strength of schedule is so much higher then a one loss AAC champion should rise above the others assuming that loss is to one of the other good teams in the conference or to a highly regarded OOC opponent. I don't think we have had a one loss champion lose out on that slot. I don't have the time to check that.


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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby RobertM320 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:11 pm

winwave wrote:I hear you but if our strength of schedule is so much higher then a one loss AAC champion should rise above the others assuming that loss is to one of the other good teams in the conference or to a highly regarded OOC opponent. I don't think we have had a one loss champion lose out on that slot. I don't have the time to check that.


Here's the criteria. "The highest-ranked champion from the "Group of Five" conferences (American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) is guaranteed a berth if the group's top team is not in the playoff."

The problem is, its very unlikely that an undefeated team from one of the G4s will NOT be the top rated team. For example, we're only halfway through the season. San Diego State is rated #19 and #18 in the two polls. The only AAC team ahead of them is USF, at #18 and #15. If USF loses once, an undefeated SDSU will be ahead of everyone in the AAC, no matter how UCF and Navy finish their season. I'm assuming they're using the CFP rankings though, and not the polls, so we just have to hope those factor SOS into the mix. Regardless, I don't see any way UCF, Navy or USF ends up undefeated, and that's going to put SDSU in the NY6 bowl.


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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby Aberzombie1892 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:43 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
winwave wrote:I hear you but if our strength of schedule is so much higher then a one loss AAC champion should rise above the others assuming that loss is to one of the other good teams in the conference or to a highly regarded OOC opponent. I don't think we have had a one loss champion lose out on that slot. I don't have the time to check that.


Here's the criteria. "The highest-ranked champion from the "Group of Five" conferences (American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) is guaranteed a berth if the group's top team is not in the playoff."

The problem is, its very unlikely that an undefeated team from one of the G4s will NOT be the top rated team. For example, we're only halfway through the season. San Diego State is rated #19 and #18 in the two polls. The only AAC team ahead of them is USF, at #18 and #15. If USF loses once, an undefeated SDSU will be ahead of everyone in the AAC, no matter how UCF and Navy finish their season. I'm assuming they're using the CFP rankings though, and not the polls, so we just have to hope those factor SOS into the mix. Regardless, I don't see any way UCF, Navy or USF ends up undefeated, and that's going to put SDSU in the NY6 bowl.


Regardless of what happens, it's certainly true that it is more difficult for the AAC champ to get the NY6 bowl than the powers in other G5 conferences.

As a note to the earlier posts, the issue with arguing the the AAC deserves P5 recognition is that, generally speaking, the top of the AAC is not as good as the top of the P5 and the middle of the AAC is not as good as the middle of the P5. Sure, 2015 Houston was fairly elite, but, other than that team, has there been any other AAC team that has performed at that level over 3 years?

Another way to look at it is this - imagine that an AAC team had to play the top 3 teams in each P5 - Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Clemson, NC State, Miami, Washington, Washington State, and USC. Is there any AAC team over the last 3 years other than 2015 Houston that anyone could reasonably expect to win at least 1/3 of those games?

Now imagine an AAC team had to play the next 3 teams in the P5 (teams are approximated) - Texas A&M, Florida, MS State, Texas Tech, Texas, West Virginia, Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa, Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Stanford, Utah, and Oregon. Is there any mid range or slightly higher (but not top) AAC team over the last 3 years that would win at least 1/3 of those games?



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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby RobertM320 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:48 pm

Aberzomie, I totally agree with that assessment. Which is why I wouldn't imagine anyone other than the champion making it to a 16 team playoff. I just feel we deserve some recognition for being far better than the other G5 conferences. It would at least be a step in the right direction if they were to give the AAC a permanent NY6 bowl spot, and give one to the best of the other G4s. The P5s only give up one spot that way, and all the rest of the major bowls are still pretty much locked up by P5vP5 matchups.


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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby winwave » Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:51 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
winwave wrote:I hear you but if our strength of schedule is so much higher then a one loss AAC champion should rise above the others assuming that loss is to one of the other good teams in the conference or to a highly regarded OOC opponent. I don't think we have had a one loss champion lose out on that slot. I don't have the time to check that.


Here's the criteria. "The highest-ranked champion from the "Group of Five" conferences (American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) is guaranteed a berth if the group's top team is not in the playoff."

The problem is, its very unlikely that an undefeated team from one of the G4s will NOT be the top rated team. For example, we're only halfway through the season. San Diego State is rated #19 and #18 in the two polls. The only AAC team ahead of them is USF, at #18 and #15. If USF loses once, an undefeated SDSU will be ahead of everyone in the AAC, no matter how UCF and Navy finish their season. I'm assuming they're using the CFP rankings though, and not the polls, so we just have to hope those factor SOS into the mix. Regardless, I don't see any way UCF, Navy or USF ends up undefeated, and that's going to put SDSU in the NY6 bowl.


I agree that those qualifications are derived from the CFP rankings which should have its first ranking out in the next couple of weeks. It will be interesting and I certainly think they take SOS into question. The problem this year is that USF's OOC was bad. Hopefully USF stays undefeated and SD St. loses and puts the issue to rest.


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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby DfromCT » Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:03 pm

RobertM320 wrote:Aberzomie, I totally agree with that assessment. Which is why I wouldn't imagine anyone other than the champion making it to a 16 team playoff. I just feel we deserve some recognition for being far better than the other G5 conferences. It would at least be a step in the right direction if they were to give the AAC a permanent NY6 bowl spot, and give one to the best of the other G4s. The P5s only give up one spot that way, and all the rest of the major bowls are still pretty much locked up by P5vP5 matchups.


I think we're far better than 3 of the 4 other G5's. The MWC might not be as strong as years past, but year in and year out they're not that far from the AAC.


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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby RobertM320 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:38 pm

As each year passes, the MWC is falling further and further behind the AAC. Here's the Massey Composite rankings for the end of each season. (2017 is just through last week). Keep in mind that as season progresses and we get into conference play, the gap will get wider.

The AAC has consistently gotten better in each of the past 4 years and I expect that to continue. The MWC's down year was probably 2015 when they finished behind the MAC.

2014
48.73 Lowest P5
76.73 MWC
83.93 AAC

2015
54.75 Lowest P5
68.95 AAC
86.79 MWC (Below MAC as well)

2016
52.02 Lowest P5
68.68 AAC
78.46 MWC

2017
47.02 Lowest P5
63.89 AAC
81.02 MWC


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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby BC Wave » Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:10 pm

Here's my plan
Every conference champion makes the playoffs.
(This is true to everyNCAA sport, save Fbs football)

10 conference champs
2 at-large teams

Top 4 teams receive byes
5-12 play round one to create an eight team round two.

Round two could be at home fields.

Round three at two NYD bowls

Championship at a rotating site.

Just my two cents.



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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby RobertM320 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:02 pm

BC Wave wrote:Here's my plan
Every conference champion makes the playoffs.
(This is true to everyNCAA sport, save Fbs football)

10 conference champs
2 at-large teams

Top 4 teams receive byes
5-12 play round one to create an eight team round two.

Round two could be at home fields.

Round three at two NYD bowls

Championship at a rotating site.

Just my two cents.


Never happen. No way the P5 accepts only 7 spots in a 12 team field. That's why sixteen is better. Also, no reason all the G4 get spots. If anything, give them 2 and let their 4 champs play in for two spots. So you end up with 8 conf champs and 8 at large. P5 gets potentially as many as 13 spots, assuming AAC doesn't end up with an at large as well as conference champion.


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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby Aberzombie1892 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:30 pm

The overarching issue is that there is no reason for the P5 to start guaranteeing any non-P5 league anything since (1) no one has sued over the current system, (2) the top 20% of the P5 is quantifiably better than the top 20% of the G5, and (3) guaranteeing conferences a certain level of inclusion waters down the value of the regular season in terms of fans of 1 conference wanting to follow what happens in a different conference. As for (3), with the current structure there is an incentive for fans of a specific P5 to follow what happens in other P5s since it directly affects whether their P5 will make the playoff.

From the standpoint of casual football fans, who would care to see the #1 team in CUSA and Sunbelt (even with at most 1 loss) on the same field as say Auburn, Oklahoma State, or Virginia Tech, let alone Alabama, Clemson, or TCU? That would be a waste of a game.



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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby CoachBrockhoff » Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:23 pm

RobertM320 wrote:Too bad we didn't land Mike Leach back in 2012, instead of CJ. Who knows where we'd be now. Regardless, a great 2 minute clip where he calls out the FBS for their ludicrous playoff system, saying how every level from high school to the NFL can get it right, except FBS.




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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby RobertM320 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:52 am

Aberzombie1892 wrote:The overarching issue is that there is no reason for the P5 to start guaranteeing any non-P5 league anything since (1) no one has sued over the current system, (2) the top 20% of the P5 is quantifiably better than the top 20% of the G5, and (3) guaranteeing conferences a certain level of inclusion waters down the value of the regular season in terms of fans of 1 conference wanting to follow what happens in a different conference. As for (3), with the current structure there is an incentive for fans of a specific P5 to follow what happens in other P5s since it directly affects whether their P5 will make the playoff.

From the standpoint of casual football fans, who would care to see the #1 team in CUSA and Sunbelt (even with at most 1 loss) on the same field as say Auburn, Oklahoma State, or Virginia Tech, let alone Alabama, Clemson, or TCU? That would be a waste of a game.


Good lord, Aber, you sound like a closet P5 fan or something. I could care less whether one P5 school wants to see a CUSA or Sunbelt school or not. They're part of the NCAA and deserve a legitimate shot at the title. Ask LSU about those "Sunbelt" teams. Right now, 4 P5's make the CFP. Going to sixteen can satisfy all five of the G5s concerns, and at the same time gives 11 P5 schools a shot instead of five. I'd bet those other six P5 schools each season would prefer my 16 team playoff system to the current one. How many schools that are 5th-10th in the country think they're legitimately good enough to win the Championship if they could just get into the playoff? All of them. This would give them that chance.

And yes, it is time someone sues the current system.


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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby Eaglewave » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:23 am

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Last edited by Eaglewave on Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby Eaglewave » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:25 am

RobertM320 wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:The overarching issue is that there is no reason for the P5 to start guaranteeing any non-P5 league anything since (1) no one has sued over the current system, (2) the top 20% of the P5 is quantifiably better than the top 20% of the G5, and (3) guaranteeing conferences a certain level of inclusion waters down the value of the regular season in terms of fans of 1 conference wanting to follow what happens in a different conference. As for (3), with the current structure there is an incentive for fans of a specific P5 to follow what happens in other P5s since it directly affects whether their P5 will make the playoff.

From the standpoint of casual football fans, who would care to see the #1 team in CUSA and Sunbelt (even with at most 1 loss) on the same field as say Auburn, Oklahoma State, or Virginia Tech, let alone Alabama, Clemson, or TCU? That would be a waste of a game.


Good lord, Aber, you sound like a closet P5 fan or something. I could care less whether one P5 school wants to see a CUSA or Sunbelt school or not. They're part of the NCAA and deserve a legitimate shot at the title. Ask LSU about those "Sunbelt" teams. Right now, 4 P5's make the CFP. Going to sixteen can satisfy all five of the G5s concerns, and at the same time gives 11 P5 schools a shot instead of five. I'd bet those other six P5 schools each season would prefer my 16 team playoff system to the current one. How many schools that are 5th-10th in the country think they're legitimately good enough to win the Championship if they could just get into the playoff? All of them. This would give them that chance.

And yes, it is time someone sues the current system.

Agreed!

How in the hell is football the only sport were you any division I player can't compete for a national championship? How in the hell is a fair for a football coach at a school like Memphis to tell his kids that if they go 12-0 and destroy everyone on the schedule, they still have no chance at competing for a national championship when the basketball team has a shot? Something has to give. Money , power and bowl games have ruined college football.


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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby Aberzombie1892 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:41 pm

RobertM320 wrote:Good lord, Aber, you sound like a closet P5 fan or something. I could care less whether one P5 school wants to see a CUSA or Sunbelt school or not. They're part of the NCAA and deserve a legitimate shot at the title. Ask LSU about those "Sunbelt" teams. Right now, 4 P5's make the CFP. Going to sixteen can satisfy all five of the G5s concerns, and at the same time gives 11 P5 schools a shot instead of five. I'd bet those other six P5 schools each season would prefer my 16 team playoff system to the current one. How many schools that are 5th-10th in the country think they're legitimately good enough to win the Championship if they could just get into the playoff? All of them. This would give them that chance.

And yes, it is time someone sues the current system.


Any conference neutral change that is made to the CFP will result in a benefit of the P5, and, given that that is the case, only changes that explicitly benefit the G5 will help the G5, however, the chances of a G5 specific change to the CFP is unlikely since there is no pressure to do so since no conference or program has sued over it and no federal lawmaker has attempted to seriously mount an investigation or evaluation of it.

As for the proposal, running a hypothetical list of selections based on last weeks' AP rankings, it would look like this (G5 selections not in ap are approximated):
1.Alabama
2.Clemson
3.Penn State
4.Georgia
5.Washington
6.TCU
7.Wisconsin
8.Washington State
9.Ohio State
10.Auburn
11.Miami
12.USF
13.SDSU
14.Marshall
15.Toledo
16.Troy


This 16 team format would exclude Oklahoma, USC, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame in order to allow the G5 champs. Short of a lawsuit or federal investigation, would the decision makers - the P5 conferences, NCAA, tv and streaming partners etc. - support that?



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Re: Mike Leach says CFB should have a real playoff, not 4 teams

Postby RobertM320 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:56 pm

Based on what we have now, 4 teams, wouldn't Oklahoma, USC, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame still not make the playoff? And, Miami, Auburn, OSU, Wash State, Wisconsin, TCU and Washington wouldn't either.

The entire thing is about money. Everyone knows eventually they're going to push for 8 or more, because it means more money.

I checked how changes to the format would be made. There's an 11-member Board of Managers that operates the CFP. To make any changes to the format, it would take seven votes. Each conference has a representative,as well as one for the independents. So when they look to change it to 8 teams, which they will, all the G5s need to do is band together. We want these certain changes to provide more access, and we'll vote NO to anything other than that. They'll be stuck at four forever unless they acquiesce. And they're too greedy to stay at four forever.


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