It's good to see that the AAC is generally considered to be strong. However, if the AAC doesn't:
1. Land the G5 New Years Six bowl slot
2. Increase viewership ratings for AAC conference games
3. Win more games against top flight competition
it won't matter how good we are when it comes to renegotiating a contract.
Landing the New Years Six slot.
1. It seems unlikely that a two loss AAC champ will take the New Years Six slot given the current competition from other conferences, namely an undefeated Western Michigan and an undefeated Boise State (although a 1 loss Air Force, SDSU, Boise, WMU, or Toledo would have a shot). That means Temple, Tulane, and UCF are all pretty much out of the New Years Six mix unless chaos ensues.
2. Houston has zero shot of making the AAC champ game unless Navy loses twice in conference, and, if Houston doesn't win the conference, it seems unlikely that it would get the New Years Six slot given the history of the committee.*
3. Navy has two OOC games remaining against Notre Dame and Army and the latter game takes place after the AAC Champ game. In theory, Navy could win out through the title game but then lose to Army afterwards and be knocked out of the New Years Six slot.
4. Navy plays USF in the regular season, so, if Navy goes undefeated into the AAC Champ game, the AAC East Division winner will have at least two losses - whether the representative is USF (2-0 in conference), UCF (1-0) or Temple (1-1).
5. Aside from Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, or USF could win out and be able to have a great shot at the New Years Six slot. Note also that, like Navy, Memphis plays USF in the regular season and this could have a major impact on which teams make it to the AAC title game since division winners will have the best overall conference record and not just the best conference record against only teams in their division. Those four teams (and Houston to a lesser extent since Houston is 2 games behind Navy in conference) and their records will pretty much determine whether the AAC gets the New Years Six slot.
TV Ratings
This has been discussed before. For week 6, the Memphis v. Temple game on ESPN had no competition and it was the lowest rated game on "regular" ESPN so far this season, while the SMU and Tulsa game on ESPN2 was the second lowest rated ESPN2 game of the season so far (the lowest being Utah State/Boise State).
Win more games against top flight competition
The AAC had many opportunities to have ranked teams prior to this past weekend by having teams defeat OOC opponents, but, with the exception already ranked Houston (Oklahoma), the rest of the conference fell short and the games generally weren't close - Navy (Air Force), USF (FSU), Memphis (Ole Miss), Tulsa (Ohio State), UCF (Michigan), etc. Had any of those teams won one of those games, they would have been ranked and drawn a lot more interest in the conference by football fans and by the tv networks by drawing more games that involve that ranked team to the highest profile channels.
*EDIT: The playoff rules themselves indicate that the G5 New Years Six slot goes to the highest ranked G5 Champ, so Houston is completely out unless Navy loses twice in conference -and- Houston doesn't lose again in conference. Houston would likely still be out of the New Years Six if it didn't lose again in conference, Navy loses twice in conference, and Houston loses to Louisville.
"10. Pairings for Selected Other Bowl Games.
A. All displaced conference champions
and
the highest ranked champion from
a non-contract conference, as ranked
by the committee, will participate in
selected other bowl games and will
be assigned to those games by the
committee. If berths in the selected
other bowl games remain available
after those teams have been identified,
the highest ranked other teams, as
ranked by the committee, will fill those
berths in rank order. "
http://cfp-cms-s3-prod.slcfp.com/wp-con ... df#page=16 (page 24)