Big XII Expansion
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2014 9:02 am
That's just speculation based on conventional wisdom.
There is very little chance that Houston or SMU would be in line for an invite. Those TV markets are already accounted for by the Big 12. It's pretty much us, Cincy or UCF.JDTulane wrote:IMO for sure the next Big12 call up is UCF. I hope we'd get the other spot over maybe Houston/SMU.
jonathanjoseph wrote:There is very little chance that Houston or SMU would be in line for an invite. Those TV markets are already accounted for by the Big 12. It's pretty much us, Cincy or UCF.JDTulane wrote:IMO for sure the next Big12 call up is UCF. I hope we'd get the other spot over maybe Houston/SMU.
Here we are with the discussion starting again and we have 1 less BCS-ready facility than we did the last time we had this conversation.
If they take one, they'll take two. So that leaves us and UCF as the logical candidates.#41 wrote:Cincinnati makes the most sense if they expand -- it's a top-30 media market and it helps connect the conference geographically to WVU.
But, fortunately for us, conference expansion frequently doesn't take the route that makes the most sense.
Everyone else is expanding, why not the Big 12?
However, not a single media outlet seems to understand exactly why the Big 12 isn’t interested in expansion. Most simply state that the more the conference grows, the more it would have to share its TV revenue, and they imply that’s all there is to it.
Why, then, did the Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12 and ACC expand while the Big 12 stood pat?
It all boils down to the TV revenue model. Conferences can make money televising their product in three distinct categories. First, they sign lucrative contracts with ESPN, ABC, CBS, and Fox to air their top matchups. These are called Tier 1 games. For example, when LSU and Wisconsin play Saturday, Aug. 30, the game will be on prime time on ESPN.
Next, conferences offer rights to Tier 2 games, which are typically shown on lesser but still “national” sports networks. They get significantly lower ratings than the tier 1 games and are often on channels that deliver limited exposure like Fox Sports 1.
Finally, what’s left is considered Tier 3 programming. Conferences typically retain the rights to these games for themselves. Here’s where it gets confusing and where a general lack of understanding exists in the sports landscape.
Um, what? LSU vs Wisconsin isn't a conference game.tpstulane wrote:http://www.deseretnews.com/article/8656 ... tml?pg=allEveryone else is expanding, why not the Big 12?
However, not a single media outlet seems to understand exactly why the Big 12 isn’t interested in expansion. Most simply state that the more the conference grows, the more it would have to share its TV revenue, and they imply that’s all there is to it.
Why, then, did the Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12 and ACC expand while the Big 12 stood pat?
It all boils down to the TV revenue model. Conferences can make money televising their product in three distinct categories. First, they sign lucrative contracts with ESPN, ABC, CBS, and Fox to air their top matchups. These are called Tier 1 games. For example, when LSU and Wisconsin play Saturday, Aug. 30, the game will be on prime time on ESPN.
Next, conferences offer rights to Tier 2 games, which are typically shown on lesser but still “national” sports networks. They get significantly lower ratings than the tier 1 games and are often on channels that deliver limited exposure like Fox Sports 1.
Finally, what’s left is considered Tier 3 programming. Conferences typically retain the rights to these games for themselves. Here’s where it gets confusing and where a general lack of understanding exists in the sports landscape.
I disagree. The article is interesting but things have a way of changing in ways we do not expect. The article paints a great reason why the Big XII will not expand in the very near future, but if the rest of the Bix XII teams end up suffering too much (in comparison to other P5 conferences) eventually Texas will be forced to relent or the other teams will need to look for a new home, one which could possibly include a team on the normal geographic outskirts of the existing conference with good academics, a football team that has done well in the AAC for the past 4 or 5 years, an administration which has just overseen the expansion of the on campus stadium to 40K and a big upgrade to the on campus BB arena, and which is located in a football/basketball rich area which is attractive to both fan traveling supporters and producers of tv athletics. In this rosy hypo I am not suggesting that Tulsa is a natural candidate.tpstulane wrote:Bottom line, let's finally end any talk of Tulane going to the Big 12.
The best chance is that the AAC beats all the P5 schools and forces a P6 to be included.
The only hope I see is one of the other P5 conf raids the Big 12 to get a Texas TV market. Then the Big 12 will come looking. But it's a real longshot.ccap05 wrote:I disagree. The article is interesting but things have a way of changing in ways we do not expect. The article paints a great reason why the Big XII will not expand in the very near future, but if the rest of the Bix XII teams end up suffering too much (in comparison to other P5 conferences) eventually Texas will be forced to relent or the other teams will need to look for a new home, one which could possibly include a team on the normal geographic outskirts of the existing conference with good academics, a football team that has done well in the AAC for the past 4 or 5 years, an administration which has just overseen the expansion of the on campus stadium to 40K and a big upgrade to the on campus BB arena, and which is located in a football/basketball rich area which is attractive to both fan traveling supporters and producers of tv athletics. In this rosy hypo I am not suggesting that Tulsa is a natural candidate.tpstulane wrote:Bottom line, let's finally end any talk of Tulane going to the Big 12.
The best chance is that the AAC beats all the P5 schools and forces a P6 to be included.
ccap05 wrote:I disagree. The article is interesting but things have a way of changing in ways we do not expect. The article paints a great reason why the Big XII will not expand in the very near future, but if the rest of the Bix XII teams end up suffering too much (in comparison to other P5 conferences) eventually Texas will be forced to relent or the other teams will need to look for a new home, one which could possibly include a team on the normal geographic outskirts of the existing conference with good academics, a football team that has done well in the AAC for the past 4 or 5 years, an administration which has just overseen the expansion of the on campus stadium to 40K and a big upgrade to the on campus BB arena, and which is located in a football/basketball rich area which is attractive to both fan traveling supporters and producers of tv athletics. In this rosy hypo I am not suggesting that Tulsa is a natural candidate.tpstulane wrote:Bottom line, let's finally end any talk of Tulane going to the Big 12.
The best chance is that the AAC beats all the P5 schools and forces a P6 to be included.
D, The math changes with the TV network. You may not be impressed by the 52nd TV market, but the alternative is zero. When they are negotiating the media rights, either they will be able to add the 52nd size TV market (which is #1 for college football) or nothing. Do you want a bigger audience for your product or no? That's the math. Even if Tulane athletics sucks, we'd bring them a TV market and combined with ability to hold a conference championship game (and very possibly the location of that championship game), which means we would bring plenty to the table.DfromCT wrote:The other thing to keep in mind is the Big 12 made it clear months ago they were happy with the status quo. This is not new information! When they told BYU to hit the bricks, they made it clear that having 10 schools splitting the pie was preferable to being able to have a conference championship game but splitting the $$ 12 ways. Right now Tulane would be a Big 12 bottom feeder. We would take more than we'd contribute. Grow the fan base (and this isn't a discussion about Yulman Capacity PLEASE DON"T GO THERE) and sell out Yulman for a few years, force expansion and WIN. 52nd TV Market and fertile recruiting ground are NOT going to get us in. Go bowling 4 or 5 years in a row and take some P5 scalps (GaTech would be a good one!) along the way. Then, and only then, will Tulane have a chance.
DfromCT wrote:ccap05 wrote:I disagree. The article is interesting but things have a way of changing in ways we do not expect. The article paints a great reason why the Big XII will not expand in the very near future, but if the rest of the Bix XII teams end up suffering too much (in comparison to other P5 conferences) eventually Texas will be forced to relent or the other teams will need to look for a new home, one which could possibly include a team on the normal geographic outskirts of the existing conference with good academics, a football team that has done well in the AAC for the past 4 or 5 years, an administration which has just overseen the expansion of the on campus stadium to 40K and a big upgrade to the on campus BB arena, and which is located in a football/basketball rich area which is attractive to both fan traveling supporters and producers of tv athletics. In this rosy hypo I am not suggesting that Tulsa is a natural candidate.tpstulane wrote:Bottom line, let's finally end any talk of Tulane going to the Big 12.
The best chance is that the AAC beats all the P5 schools and forces a P6 to be included.
Every school in the AAC thinks they have a better shot at a P5 invite than Tulane. Think about that. As much as we like to think that AAU status, Academic quality, and rich tradition (and not being a "directional" University) are important, most recognize Tulane as a small school that hasn't won much over the past 50 years, with a shrinking fan base.
I agree with everything you wrote (except I would probably say that Tulsa does not delude itself about an P5 membership). I would also hazard to guess that if there was a generic P5 offer going out Tulane would probably be in the middle to bottom middle of the AAC pack right now (debatable exactly where but who cares). However, Tulane is in a position to make some big changes very quickly which are simply not going to happen at other schools. 1) Actual Football attendance very well may increase dramatically for the foreseeable future with bigger name opponents, a much improved team, a decent record and an on campus stadium. 2) A few years of increased attendance may be a catalyst for Stadium expansion. Hopefully the powers that be are buying out the Nimbys so that this can be maximised. 3) Improved status of the football program and increased ticket sales should allow Tulane to turn its focus to improving/rebuilding Devlin. 4) RD will not be here that much longer and hopefully his replacement will be an upgrade. 5) Conroy will either win in the next two seasons or be gone. Even if RD is still around there is no way Tulane will keep this guy unless he finally produces. Either way is a win for Tulane- if Conroy manages to turn things around good for him and us. If Conroy does not turn things around, the excitement around the FB program makes it the perfect time to pressure Tulane to put out the bucks to hire a top notch coach. 6) The Sand Vollyball team is poised for greatness.
I do think we have a better shot of Aresco making the AAC the 6th "Power" Conference than getting a bid. But at the same time, we need to change the perception throughout the conference and throughout the country.
ROLL WAVE!
That's sort of the issue. Even if Tulane is "making the investment", that's still 10+ years out.JDTulane wrote:I'm just hoping they're choosing to bide their time until Tulane is worth inviting.
Good points, Texas A&M is making noise in these parts with recruiting. (Speedy Noil) for one since they got the SEC invite....lurker123 wrote:The one unstated advantage that Tulane has over every other potential candidate for Big 12 is its ability to put dent in LSU recruiting if it is "elevated" in status. OK and UT want to win national championships in football. Helping someone/anyone diminish a nearby competitor that has a lock on top recruits from a top recruiting state like Louisiana might appeal to OU/UT as a tie breaker.
Obviously all the other things (on field success, facilities, fan support, TV ratings, etc.) must come first but UC or UConn or BYU won't help OU or UT improve the odds to win the BCS championship.
All moot though. Nothing will happen until 2020 or so unless litigation/govt regulation breaks up the BCS cartel before then and that's even a longer shot then Tulane joining the Big 12.
I do agree with consensus here. Better route (but still very hard) is to build the AAC into P6.
Right. We have the intangibles (recruiting ground). We have the geography (SEC country). The on field success appears to be coming, if not this year then next year. It sure seems like fan support is changing almost overnight.lurker123 wrote:The one unstated advantage that Tulane has over every other potential candidate for Big 12 is its ability to put dent in LSU recruiting if it is "elevated" in status. OK and UT want to win national championships in football. Helping someone/anyone diminish a nearby competitor that has a lock on top recruits from a top recruiting state like Louisiana might appeal to OU/UT as a tie breaker.
Obviously all the other things (on field success, facilities, fan support, TV ratings, etc.) must come first but UC or UConn or BYU won't help OU or UT improve the odds to win the BCS championship.
All moot though. Nothing will happen until 2020 or so unless litigation/govt regulation breaks up the BCS cartel before then and that's even a longer shot then Tulane joining the Big 12.
I do agree with consensus here. Better route (but still very hard) is to build the AAC into P6.