Big XII Expansion

Discuss anything else athletic or non-athletic related that doesn't belong on the main Tulane athletics forum.
User avatar
RobertM320
Tsunami
Posts: 6523
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:18 pm
Location: Destrehan, LA
Contact:
Status: Offline

Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:04 pm

The truth is, the only thing that will prove we deserve to compete with the big boys will be winning our OOC games against them. And it doesn't have to be all of them. What's the Big 12 or Big 10's record in OOC P5 games? If we can approach that level, we have a legit argument.


"ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! HANG EM AND BANG EM! HANG EM AND BANG EM!"-- Todd Graffagnini
jonathanjoseph
Green Wave
Posts: 9299
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:54 pm
Status: Offline

Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:59 pm

Ruski wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
Ruski wrote:
The best way to gain ground would be to send a team to the playoffs and force 2 P5 conferences to watch from home. The best way to overtake Big12 would've been for Houston to make the playoff and win a game, giving AAC even playoff appearances and more playoff wins than Big12.
That's fan logic, not conference commissioner and TV executive logic. Those things would help, for sure, but media rights contracts have been 10-15 years long. 15 years ago Baylor and TCU were awful. Short sighted decisions were made during the last round(s) of realignment and now conferences have buyers remorse and have learned their lesson (see: B12/WVU).

The AAC has a number of programs on the way up, currently including Tulane. The Big12 has the opposite. Aresco is playing the long game and any one school/season/game doesn't mean much in the long game.
15 years ago we had the BCS. A 12-0 Tulane team among other successful non-BCS teams forced the current playoff system. A playoff berth Houston would put more pressure on the current system, pushing AAC to P6 level more than any AAC win over itself ever could. Ultimately this argument comes down to AAC proving it deserves to compete with the big boys, no amount of AAC beating itself up will ever make that case.
No that's absurd. Neither Tulane's 1998 team nor anything else that transpired on the field had anything to do with the existence of the current playoff system. The entire thing was dictated by TV/media executives, the Bowl committees and the conference commissioners.
HoustonWave
Swell
Posts: 1609
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2010 6:27 pm
Status: Offline

Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:04 pm

mbawavefan12 wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:I agree with Ruski.

1. The AAC went 3-12 against OOC FBS teams that currently have winning records, and, if one would like to remove the ranked teams, the AAC went 3-6 against FBS teams with winning records that aren't currently ranked.
2. Houston, which was a lock for the New Years Six G5 slot and had a real shot of the playoff, is completely out of the running for the playoff and is out of the New Years Six picture as well unless Navy capsizes against two of Memphis, Tulsa, and USF in the regular season.
3. Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, and USF lack a meaningful OOC victory at this time even though they each had an opportunity (Air Force/Ole Miss/Ohio State/FSU), although Navy may have another shot later depending whether ND and Army improve. This could haunt these teams later given the competition from the other G5s. Also note that OOC victories played a big part in the ranking of the 4 AAC teams that spent time in the top 25 in 2015 (Penn State, Ole Miss, Louisville, and Air Force).
4. G5s Boise State, Air Force, Western Michigan, and SDSU are now in the running for the New Years Six bowl slot if they win out or have 1 total loss even if Navy also wins out, and each of these teams currently have an OOC victory that is better than anything Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, and USF have, and it's not close (Washington State/Navy/Georgia Southern/CAL).
Navy beating Houston may cost this league millions. If only Navy was in the weatern division.
Navy is in the West Division.
Tulane is the University of Louisiana
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 12461
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:00 am

Let's Do This!
lurker123
Swell
Posts: 1300
Joined: Tue Apr 23, 2013 9:01 pm
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:40 am

winwave wrote:Looks like it's over:

http://www.nola.com/tulane/index.ssf/20 ... iver_index
Obviously this is the second best potential result after Tulane being invited. If no expansion then Aresco and AAC members can work overtime to make AAC a P6.
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 12461
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 9:52 am

lurker123 wrote:
winwave wrote:Looks like it's over:

http://www.nola.com/tulane/index.ssf/20 ... iver_index
Obviously this is the second best potential result after Tulane being invited. If no expansion then Aresco and AAC members can work overtime to make AAC a P6.
The AAC will never be a Power Conference. I get that Aresco has to push that line as the commish but it's not going to happen.
Let's Do This!
User avatar
RobertM320
Tsunami
Posts: 6523
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:18 pm
Location: Destrehan, LA
Contact:
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:08 am

win,

There's 25 spots in the top 25. If we start having 4 teams ranked all the time, that leaves 21 spots for the P5's. Figure one to an outlier like Boise, that leaves 20/5 = four spots per conf. If our OOC record starts getting to the point where maybe only the SEC is better, they'll have no choice. People will want to see teams that are consistently ranked and consistently defeating other ranked teams. No one wanted to watch Baylor, Louisville or TCU 15 years ago. AAC can eventually push to a point where they can't be ignored. We may never get full P5 money, but we can get a substantial increase in our contract. If we jumped from $4M to $12M/team, that's a huge difference, even if the P5's are getting $40M.

Remember, there's only so much that money can do, it still takes talent and coaching, otherwise Kansas and Indiana wouldn't be so terrible in football all these years. Right now AAC is below the threshold where you can compete with P5. Does it really make a difference if one P5 conference makes $35M and another makes $45M? Once you build the facilities, everything else is fluff. You can put metallic paint on the walls instead of regular paint. Big deal. You can put hologram images in your school hall of fame instead of just photos/plaques/busts. Again, big deal. That's not going to mean nearly as much as if you have legit, competitive facilities and you WIN. That'll bring the talent and you'll be able to compete. The problem right now is $4M/yr isn't enough to have those facilities. What is the threshold, that magic number? $10M? $15M? $20M? I don't know. But there is a point where its enough to do what needs to be done to be competitve. And Aresco will find that number. We all just have to keep winning.
"ASK AND YE SHALL RECEIVE! HANG EM AND BANG EM! HANG EM AND BANG EM!"-- Todd Graffagnini
jonathanjoseph
Green Wave
Posts: 9299
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:54 pm
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:20 am

winwave wrote:
lurker123 wrote:
winwave wrote:Looks like it's over:

http://www.nola.com/tulane/index.ssf/20 ... iver_index
Obviously this is the second best potential result after Tulane being invited. If no expansion then Aresco and AAC members can work overtime to make AAC a P6.
The AAC will never be a Power Conference. I get that Aresco has to push that line as the commish but it's not going to happen.
"Power" conference is the wrong way to look at it. There are 5 conferences that have that "automatic" qualifier status for the playoff, but that doesn't take away from the fact that you have to go undefeated (or 1 loss at worst) to get there. We're well past the point where an AAC team would go undefeated and not be invited.

The real issue with being a "power" conference is the media rights revenue. Aresco will get us a substantially better deal next time around. If "Power conference" schools get $20M and he can get AAC schools $15M each, it would be just as big a development as being labeled a "Power" conference.
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 12461
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:23 am

R- I get that if all of that happened the conference could get more money. However it only gets $2 million a year now not 4. It would have to get to $15 million to be in the hunt. RealisticallyI just don't see any of the programs stepping up that much. Yes at one point it had 4 teams ranked last year but it ended with 2. Right now it has two but will likely end w/only one. That's not progress. Believe me I want it to happen but just trying to be realistic.
Let's Do This!
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 12461
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:25 am

jonathanjoseph wrote:
winwave wrote:
lurker123 wrote:
winwave wrote:Looks like it's over:

http://www.nola.com/tulane/index.ssf/20 ... iver_index
Obviously this is the second best potential result after Tulane being invited. If no expansion then Aresco and AAC members can work overtime to make AAC a P6.
The AAC will never be a Power Conference. I get that Aresco has to push that line as the commish but it's not going to happen.
"Power" conference is the wrong way to look at it. There are 5 conferences that have that "automatic" qualifier status for the playoff, but that doesn't take away from the fact that you have to go undefeated (or 1 loss at worst) to get there. We're well past the point where an AAC team would go undefeated and not be invited.

The real issue with being a "power" conference is the media rights revenue. Aresco will get us a substantially better deal next time around. If "Power conference" schools get $20M and he can get AAC schools $15M each, it would be just as big a development as being labeled a "Power" conference.
jj- I like Aresco but he's not going to get us that type of money. We'll just have to agree to disagree.
Let's Do This!
jonathanjoseph
Green Wave
Posts: 9299
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:54 pm
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:35 am

winwave wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
winwave wrote:
lurker123 wrote:
winwave wrote:Looks like it's over:

http://www.nola.com/tulane/index.ssf/20 ... iver_index
Obviously this is the second best potential result after Tulane being invited. If no expansion then Aresco and AAC members can work overtime to make AAC a P6.
The AAC will never be a Power Conference. I get that Aresco has to push that line as the commish but it's not going to happen.
"Power" conference is the wrong way to look at it. There are 5 conferences that have that "automatic" qualifier status for the playoff, but that doesn't take away from the fact that you have to go undefeated (or 1 loss at worst) to get there. We're well past the point where an AAC team would go undefeated and not be invited.

The real issue with being a "power" conference is the media rights revenue. Aresco will get us a substantially better deal next time around. If "Power conference" schools get $20M and he can get AAC schools $15M each, it would be just as big a development as being labeled a "Power" conference.
jj- I like Aresco but he's not going to get us that type of money. We'll just have to agree to disagree.
Why not? It depends on how many digital bidders there are when the time comes. If Amazon, Netflix and Youtube all want live sports content, Aresco should have the ammo to attract that kind of money. If the bidders aren't there, the money won't be either.
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 12461
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:40 am

It's not how many bidders that's important. It's the quality of the content and it's not going to get us $15 million. Like I said we'll have to agree to disagree.
Let's Do This!
Aberzombie1892
Swell
Posts: 1724
Joined: Sat May 31, 2014 8:16 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:07 pm

Yeah. The AAC could quadruple its TV only money in its next contract and it won't come close to $15M per team in tv money. Not only that, but the AAC this season is much weaker than it was last season, as evidenced by all of the OOC losses - only Houston and Cincinnati are currently undefeated OOC and they each have a major OOC opponent remaining that they would have at least a 50% chance of losing to. That's embarrassing in light of all of the success last year, and, if they both lose and the AAC doesn't land the New Years Six slot, this season will pretty much be a lost football season for the conference.
jonathanjoseph
Green Wave
Posts: 9299
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:54 pm
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:32 pm

winwave wrote:It's not how many bidders that's important. It's the quality of the content and it's not going to get us $15 million. Like I said we'll have to agree to disagree.
Fair enough. Right now, the P5 conferences get 10X-20X more media rights revenue, but the ratings don't reflect that kind of split. Can make an easy case that we are worth half of a P5 conference and that's still >$10M per school, assuming the market holds.
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 12461
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 3:52 pm

jonathanjoseph wrote:
winwave wrote:It's not how many bidders that's important. It's the quality of the content and it's not going to get us $15 million. Like I said we'll have to agree to disagree.
Fair enough. Right now, the P5 conferences get 10X-20X more media rights revenue, but the ratings don't reflect that kind of split. Can make an easy case that we are worth half of a P5 conference and that's still >$10M per school, assuming the market holds.
I'd be surprised if our overall TV ratings aren't noticeably below the P5's. More importantly the networks have realized they overpaid for the P5's. They'll make up for that by not paying the G5's.
Let's Do This!
JerseyWave
Riptide
Posts: 3833
Joined: Sat Sep 10, 2011 7:09 pm
Location: New Jersey
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 3:53 pm

jonathanjoseph wrote:
winwave wrote:It's not how many bidders that's important. It's the quality of the content and it's not going to get us $15 million. Like I said we'll have to agree to disagree.
Fair enough. Right now, the P5 conferences get 10X-20X more media rights revenue, but the ratings don't reflect that kind of split. Can make an easy case that we are worth half of a P5 conference and that's still >$10M per school, assuming the market holds.
There's still the stigma of the P5 vs non P5 in recruiting. We lose talent over the "I got a P5 offer." This barrier has to be broken down.
jonathanjoseph
Green Wave
Posts: 9299
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:54 pm
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:09 pm

winwave wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
winwave wrote:It's not how many bidders that's important. It's the quality of the content and it's not going to get us $15 million. Like I said we'll have to agree to disagree.
Fair enough. Right now, the P5 conferences get 10X-20X more media rights revenue, but the ratings don't reflect that kind of split. Can make an easy case that we are worth half of a P5 conference and that's still >$10M per school, assuming the market holds.
I'd be surprised if our overall TV ratings aren't noticeably below the P5's. More importantly the networks have realized they overpaid for the P5's. They'll make up for that by not paying the G5's.
I agree with both of those statements, but that's not mutually exclusive to what I'm saying. It's the digital bidders that are going to be involved in the next go around, and there are simply not enough media properties to go around. If there are more bidders than properties available, Aresco has leverage. Even assuming the $20M/school is overpaying, $15M/school is not. And if the AAC can make the case that it is worthy of ~half that, we're still talking $7.5M/school.
jonathanjoseph
Green Wave
Posts: 9299
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 5:54 pm
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:11 pm

JerseyWave wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
winwave wrote:It's not how many bidders that's important. It's the quality of the content and it's not going to get us $15 million. Like I said we'll have to agree to disagree.
Fair enough. Right now, the P5 conferences get 10X-20X more media rights revenue, but the ratings don't reflect that kind of split. Can make an easy case that we are worth half of a P5 conference and that's still >$10M per school, assuming the market holds.
There's still the stigma of the P5 vs non P5 in recruiting. We lose talent over the "I got a P5 offer." This barrier has to be broken down.
Houston has proven this to be a false narrative. "P5 offer" is really code for "P5 ammenities", which we could and should already have. Dickson instead decided to build a "boutique" program.
winwave
Wild Pelican
Posts: 12461
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:34 am
Status: Offline

Sat Oct 15, 2016 5:16 pm

jonathanjoseph wrote:
winwave wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
winwave wrote:It's not how many bidders that's important. It's the quality of the content and it's not going to get us $15 million. Like I said we'll have to agree to disagree.
Fair enough. Right now, the P5 conferences get 10X-20X more media rights revenue, but the ratings don't reflect that kind of split. Can make an easy case that we are worth half of a P5 conference and that's still >$10M per school, assuming the market holds.
I'd be surprised if our overall TV ratings aren't noticeably below the P5's. More importantly the networks have realized they overpaid for the P5's. They'll make up for that by not paying the G5's.
I agree with both of those statements, but that's not mutually exclusive to what I'm saying. It's the digital bidders that are going to be involved in the next go around, and there are simply not enough media properties to go around. If there are more bidders than properties available, Aresco has leverage. Even assuming the $20M/school is overpaying, $15M/school is not. And if the AAC can make the case that it is worthy of ~half that, we're still talking $7.5M/school.
I hope it works out that well.
Let's Do This!
golfnut69
Green Wave
Posts: 7984
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 9:38 am
Status: Offline

Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:43 pm

Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
golfnut69
Green Wave
Posts: 7984
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 9:38 am
Status: Offline

Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:19 am

someone that has not hit the pay wall, please recap the links from the above post....thanks
Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
DfromCT
Tsunami
Posts: 6311
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2011 1:50 pm
Location: Stamford, CT
Status: Offline

Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:38 am

golfnut69 wrote:someone that has not hit the pay wall, please recap the links from the above post....thanks
I guess since I have a new laptop, the counter re-started. I was able to read the articles, and here's my take:

1. There's a good chance nothing happens. ESPN and others have offered BIG MONEY to the conference to not expand. Each school would make approximately $3.5 million to do nothing.
2. If they do expand, it's very likely going to be BYU, plus either Houston or Cincinnati.
3. There is a serious rift in the conference, and few, if any, believe it will survive through the middle of the next decade
4. It's unlikely that any University that is not competitive will be invited. Reading between the lines, there would be tremendous push-back if Tulane, or anyone else that would "dilute" the conference were invited.
" For every alum, no matter where they are...I want a football coach that's going to make Saturday something you anticipate and look forward to." --Troy Dannen

Thank you all for your support as my son Zach continues to beat leukemia
golfnut69
Green Wave
Posts: 7984
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 9:38 am
Status: Offline

Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:41 am

DfromCT wrote:
golfnut69 wrote:someone that has not hit the pay wall, please recap the links from the above post....thanks
I guess since I have a new laptop, the counter re-started. I was able to read the articles, and here's my take:

1. There's a good chance nothing happens. ESPN and others have offered BIG MONEY to the conference to not expand. Each school would make approximately $3.5 million to do nothing.
2. If they do expand, it's very likely going to be BYU, plus either Houston or Cincinnati.
3. There is a serious rift in the conference, and few, if any, believe it will survive through the middle of the next decade
4. It's unlikely that any University that is not competitive will be invited. Reading between the lines, there would be tremendous push-back if Tulane, or anyone else that would "dilute" the conference were invited.
congrats on your new device and the feed back !!!
Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
Wave755
Riptide
Posts: 2742
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 4:04 pm
Status: Offline

Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:53 am

Today @ 5:30 p.m. CDT we should finally know for now the answer.
Aberzombie1892
Swell
Posts: 1724
Joined: Sat May 31, 2014 8:16 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Status: Offline

Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:54 am

Jake Trotter tweeted that the consultants, BHV and Navigate, have concluded their presentations.
Post Reply