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Ruski
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Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:49 pm

Was Uconn beating Houston last season a "good win" for the AAC?


Ruski
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Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:52 pm

It would've been better if UCONN had beaten Mizzou instead, or even Marshall. Similarly it would've been better if Navy had beaten Air Force instead of Houston. Ultimately the reason the SEC is the SEC is because they win OOC games, period.
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 9:44 am

I agree with Ruski.

1. The AAC went 3-12 against OOC FBS teams that currently have winning records, and, if one would like to remove the ranked teams, the AAC went 3-6 against FBS teams with winning records that aren't currently ranked.
2. Houston, which was a lock for the New Years Six G5 slot and had a real shot of the playoff, is completely out of the running for the playoff and is out of the New Years Six picture as well unless Navy capsizes against two of Memphis, Tulsa, and USF in the regular season.
3. Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, and USF lack a meaningful OOC victory at this time even though they each had an opportunity (Air Force/Ole Miss/Ohio State/FSU), although Navy may have another shot later depending whether ND and Army improve. This could haunt these teams later given the competition from the other G5s. Also note that OOC victories played a big part in the ranking of the 4 AAC teams that spent time in the top 25 in 2015 (Penn State, Ole Miss, Louisville, and Air Force).
4. G5s Boise State, Air Force, Western Michigan, and SDSU are now in the running for the New Years Six bowl slot if they win out or have 1 total loss even if Navy also wins out, and each of these teams currently have an OOC victory that is better than anything Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, and USF have, and it's not close (Washington State/Navy/Georgia Southern/CAL).
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:21 am

Aberzombie1892 wrote:I agree with Ruski.

1. The AAC went 3-12 against OOC FBS teams that currently have winning records, and, if one would like to remove the ranked teams, the AAC went 3-6 against FBS teams with winning records that aren't currently ranked.
2. Houston, which was a lock for the New Years Six G5 slot and had a real shot of the playoff, is completely out of the running for the playoff and is out of the New Years Six picture as well unless Navy capsizes against two of Memphis, Tulsa, and USF in the regular season.
3. Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, and USF lack a meaningful OOC victory at this time even though they each had an opportunity (Air Force/Ole Miss/Ohio State/FSU), although Navy may have another shot later depending whether ND and Army improve. This could haunt these teams later given the competition from the other G5s. Also note that OOC victories played a big part in the ranking of the 4 AAC teams that spent time in the top 25 in 2015 (Penn State, Ole Miss, Louisville, and Air Force).
4. G5s Boise State, Air Force, Western Michigan, and SDSU are now in the running for the New Years Six bowl slot if they win out or have 1 total loss even if Navy also wins out, and each of these teams currently have an OOC victory that is better than anything Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, and USF have, and it's not close (Washington State/Navy/Georgia Southern/CAL).

how the hell is SDSU still have a shot a NY's 6 bowl when they got blown out by South Alabama ?
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:16 am

Ruski wrote:Was Uconn beating Houston last season a "good win" for the AAC?
No. Though some may point out it was a win over top ten team.
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:17 am

Aberzombie1892 wrote:I agree with Ruski.

1. The AAC went 3-12 against OOC FBS teams that currently have winning records, and, if one would like to remove the ranked teams, the AAC went 3-6 against FBS teams with winning records that aren't currently ranked.
2. Houston, which was a lock for the New Years Six G5 slot and had a real shot of the playoff, is completely out of the running for the playoff and is out of the New Years Six picture as well unless Navy capsizes against two of Memphis, Tulsa, and USF in the regular season.
3. Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, and USF lack a meaningful OOC victory at this time even though they each had an opportunity (Air Force/Ole Miss/Ohio State/FSU), although Navy may have another shot later depending whether ND and Army improve. This could haunt these teams later given the competition from the other G5s. Also note that OOC victories played a big part in the ranking of the 4 AAC teams that spent time in the top 25 in 2015 (Penn State, Ole Miss, Louisville, and Air Force).
4. G5s Boise State, Air Force, Western Michigan, and SDSU are now in the running for the New Years Six bowl slot if they win out or have 1 total loss even if Navy also wins out, and each of these teams currently have an OOC victory that is better than anything Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, and USF have, and it's not close (Washington State/Navy/Georgia Southern/CAL).
Navy beating Houston may cost this league millions. If only Navy was in the weatern division.
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:41 am

mbawavefan12 wrote:
Aberzombie1892 wrote:I agree with Ruski.

1. The AAC went 3-12 against OOC FBS teams that currently have winning records, and, if one would like to remove the ranked teams, the AAC went 3-6 against FBS teams with winning records that aren't currently ranked.
2. Houston, which was a lock for the New Years Six G5 slot and had a real shot of the playoff, is completely out of the running for the playoff and is out of the New Years Six picture as well unless Navy capsizes against two of Memphis, Tulsa, and USF in the regular season.
3. Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, and USF lack a meaningful OOC victory at this time even though they each had an opportunity (Air Force/Ole Miss/Ohio State/FSU), although Navy may have another shot later depending whether ND and Army improve. This could haunt these teams later given the competition from the other G5s. Also note that OOC victories played a big part in the ranking of the 4 AAC teams that spent time in the top 25 in 2015 (Penn State, Ole Miss, Louisville, and Air Force).
4. G5s Boise State, Air Force, Western Michigan, and SDSU are now in the running for the New Years Six bowl slot if they win out or have 1 total loss even if Navy also wins out, and each of these teams currently have an OOC victory that is better than anything Navy, Memphis, Tulsa, and USF have, and it's not close (Washington State/Navy/Georgia Southern/CAL).
Navy beating Houston may cost this league millions. If only Navy wasn't in the western division.
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:18 pm

No one said we're there yet. But we're still better than the rest of the G5 by a long shot. Yes, we need to do better with our OOC opportunities. Until we do, we don't have an argument for being P6. Why does everyone here seem to think Rome was built in a day? Just because the AAC doesn't get the G5 NY6 bowl slot doesn't make us inferior to any of those other G5 conferences. We actually have the same argument the P5's do - our in conference competition is so tough its almost impossible for someone to run the table and go 12-0, while its much easier in the MAC, MWC, CUSA or SunBelt.

The operative word is -- YET.
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:52 pm

Wyoming beat Air Force, so Air Force would have to run the table only to put them in the same place Houston or Navy is. If AFA wins out, that means they beat Boise State, which knocks Boise out since they're in the same division and Boise wouldn't be able to win the conference. I still think Houston has a better chance to win out than Navy does, which would mean Htn could still make the AAC championship game. I think winning that would still keep them ahead of W Michigan or Boise.

However, isn't there some clause that says if a team is undefeated, that overrides where they finish being ranked? My concern would be Houston or Navy finishing ahead of W Michigan in rankings but WMU being undefeated.
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 2:31 pm

I haven't heard of any clause for undefeated teams.
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 2:45 pm

Western Michigan has played a reasonable schedule, certainly equal to if not better than what our Green Wave has played. They beat two B1G teams, Northwestern and Illinois. Air Force losing to Wyoming was a kick in the teeth for Navy and our conference. That's a conference game for Air Force. Frankly, (and I know the "sabermetrics" don't agree) I don't think the MWC is much different than the AAC. Houston may still have a chance for the New Year's 6, but an argument could be made that the MWC champs, depending upon how it plays out, can make a legitimate case as well.

Tulane needs to win a game somewhere along the line we're not expecting. Probably two to become Bowl eligible. With the exception of SMU, every team remaining on our schedule is at least as good as any we've played to date.
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:16 pm

RobertM320 wrote:Wyoming beat Air Force, so Air Force would have to run the table only to put them in the same place Houston or Navy is. If AFA wins out, that means they beat Boise State, which knocks Boise out since they're in the same division and Boise wouldn't be able to win the conference. I still think Houston has a better chance to win out than Navy does, which would mean Htn could still make the AAC championship game. I think winning that would still keep them ahead of W Michigan or Boise.

However, isn't there some clause that says if a team is undefeated, that overrides where they finish being ranked? My concern would be Houston or Navy finishing ahead of W Michigan in rankings but WMU being undefeated.
Well,
1. Houston has no shot at the AAC West Division title unless Navy loses twice in conference, and that title is necessary for New Years Six inclusion. Given Navy still has to play Memphis, Tulsa, and @USF in the regular season, it's certainly possible that Navy could have two conference losses, but it seems unlikely if for no other reason than the fact that Navy defeated Houston and the home/away game split (Navy had Houston at home and played @Air Force). Of course, even if Navy did lose twice in conference, Houston couldn't lose again in conference to make it to the AAC title game and Houston still has to play Tulsa and Memphis - and that's not even factoring in Houston needing to beat Louisville OOC to avoid an at least 2 loss regular season. Like with Houston, Navy still has OOC contests remaining, so, even if it won out in the AAC, it could lose to ND or Army and be a 2 loss AAC champ. Of course, it's possible that one of Tulsa/Memphis/USF could win out, but only USF seems to be realistically able to do that and USF doesn't face Houston in the regular season in order to build its resume, and it's unclear how a 1 loss USF would hold up to a 1 or 0 loss Boise State or WMU that have good OOC victories.

2. It's certainly true that Air Force and Boise State play in the same division, so (obviously) only one of them could advance to the MWC title game. Boise State seems capable of going undefeated - although that is always a tall task - and, while Air Force did lose to Wyoming, Air Force holds a head to head victory over Navy that could come into play if Navy and Air Force win their conferences with the same overall record since that is a factor in the New Years Six process. SDSU's regular season schedule isn't nearly as difficult as AF or Boise's, but, if it doesn't lose again and defeats one of them in the MWC Champ game, it would have a strong case for inclusion in the New Years Six (ditto with Toledo's schedule not being as difficult as WMU's although they are in the same division).
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:10 pm

I'm guilty of contributing to the thread drift, but can we either separate the "who's going to make the playoff and/or New Years 6 games" into it's own thread or move these comments to the thread started over the weekend about G5 being out of the playoff? It's really a significant thread drift, and with over a hundred pages in the thread, we need to keep it to the previously beaten to death topic! THANKS!
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:14 pm

The latest from DFW...since I have used my freebie looks, I hope someone will recap

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college ... y-lost?f=r

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college ... big-12?f=r
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:29 pm

golfnut69 wrote:The latest from DFW...since I have used my freebie looks, I hope someone will recap

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college ... y-lost?f=r

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college ... big-12?f=r
I read the first and was paywalled out at the second. All options still on table. Who knows? UH/BYU may get football only offer. ( MY COMMENT: If so, UH fans better hope the MVC takes them because otherwise they are looking at home and home with Lamar and UNO in the Olympic Sports. Southland. YeeHaw!!)

If Big XII does nothing than per DFW it will lose all street cred. Does that matter?

Meanwhile no mention of Tulane. FWIW this paper and its reporters have totally dismissed Tulane's chances from Day One usually in a snarky manner. When Tulane made the first cut they had to do a semi-walkback but I'm sure they've returned to the conventional wisdom that inviting Tulane is ridiculous.
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 6:04 pm

Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:24 pm

DfromCT wrote:I'm guilty of contributing to the thread drift, but can we either separate the "who's going to make the playoff and/or New Years 6 games" into it's own thread or move these comments to the thread started over the weekend about G5 being out of the playoff? It's really a significant thread drift, and with over a hundred pages in the thread, we need to keep it to the previously beaten to death topic! THANKS!

This one? viewtopic.php?f=12&t=9173
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Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:58 pm

ajcalhoun wrote:
DfromCT wrote:I'm guilty of contributing to the thread drift, but can we either separate the "who's going to make the playoff and/or New Years 6 games" into it's own thread or move these comments to the thread started over the weekend about G5 being out of the playoff? It's really a significant thread drift, and with over a hundred pages in the thread, we need to keep it to the previously beaten to death topic! THANKS!

This one? viewtopic.php?f=12&t=9173
Yes, your thread, AJ
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Fri Oct 14, 2016 12:59 am

Ruski wrote:Was Uconn beating Houston last season a "good win" for the AAC?
No. Does that make any of the rest of it any less relevant?
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Fri Oct 14, 2016 1:03 am

RobertM320 wrote:No one said we're there yet. But we're still better than the rest of the G5 by a long shot. Yes, we need to do better with our OOC opportunities. Until we do, we don't have an argument for being P6. Why does everyone here seem to think Rome was built in a day? Just because the AAC doesn't get the G5 NY6 bowl slot doesn't make us inferior to any of those other G5 conferences. We actually have the same argument the P5's do - our in conference competition is so tough its almost impossible for someone to run the table and go 12-0, while its much easier in the MAC, MWC, CUSA or SunBelt.

The operative word is -- YET.
Exactly right. We aren't competing with the SEC. All we need to be able to prove is that we're close to the Big 12 on the field and with ratings. It hurts Houston's brand for realignment gives the conference additional legitimacy competitively.

If a renegotiated AAC media contract ended up netting $10M/year in revenue that would be huge.
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Fri Oct 14, 2016 11:06 am

jonathanjoseph wrote:
Ruski wrote:Was Uconn beating Houston last season a "good win" for the AAC?
No. Does that make any of the rest of it any less relevant?
Yes, 100%. UConn beating Houston just like Navy beating Houston is not a necessarily good thing for the conference. It's a good win for UCONN just like the Navy win is a good win for Navy, not the conference. A good win for the conference would've been UCONN pulling out a close game against Mizzou last year or winning that bowl game against Marshall. The conference champion missed out on being undefeated and putting pressure on the playoff system all for UCONN to lose to freaking Marshall. Similarly the conference will miss that same potential this year and then when Navy loses another game, maybe to very mediocre Army or Notre Dame teams, it will all be for nothing. If Navy had beaten Air Force then sure Navy beating Houston could be good for the conference, people would be tuning in to see if Navy and Houston could run the table but they didn't. They lost to an average Air Force team. And with that loss and no games against ranked teams left, Navy will not be ranked higher than middle of the the top 25. Houston probably won't be ranked higher than 6/8, and that's if both teams run the table, highly unlikely.

Much more important games for the conference to win were: ECU v South Carolina, UCF v Maryland, Temple v Penn State, UCONN v Syracuse, Navy v Air Force, and even Tulane v Wake. All of these were close and very winnable games. The Ole Miss, Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan games, the AAC can win 1/5, 1/10 of those types of games and its fine. As long as they win these middle of the pack games.
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Fri Oct 14, 2016 11:51 am

Ruski wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
Ruski wrote:Was Uconn beating Houston last season a "good win" for the AAC?
No. Does that make any of the rest of it any less relevant?
Yes, 100%. UConn beating Houston just like Navy beating Houston is not a necessarily good thing for the conference. It's a good win for UCONN just like the Navy win is a good win for Navy, not the conference. A good win for the conference would've been UCONN pulling out a close game against Mizzou last year or winning that bowl game against Marshall. The conference champion missed out on being undefeated and putting pressure on the playoff system all for UCONN to lose to freaking Marshall. Similarly the conference will miss that same potential this year and then when Navy loses another game, maybe to very mediocre Army or Notre Dame teams, it will all be for nothing. If Navy had beaten Air Force then sure Navy beating Houston could be good for the conference, people would be tuning in to see if Navy and Houston could run the table but they didn't. They lost to an average Air Force team. And with that loss and no games against ranked teams left, Navy will not be ranked higher than middle of the the top 25. Houston probably won't be ranked higher than 6/8, and that's if both teams run the table, highly unlikely.

Much more important games for the conference to win were: ECU v South Carolina, UCF v Maryland, Temple v Penn State, UCONN v Syracuse, Navy v Air Force, and even Tulane v Wake. All of these were close and very winnable games. The Ole Miss, Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan games, the AAC can win 1/5, 1/10 of those types of games and its fine. As long as they win these middle of the pack games.
Yes that would have been a "better" scenario. But you're still missing the broader point, which is that as a conference the AAC is gaining ground on the B12 and B10 very quickly. We don't have to have the ideal outcome in every individual matchup to achieve that. Even though we haven't had the optimal outcome in each of those matchups, the desired outcome is still coming to fruition more quickly than anyone imagined.

The B12 not expanding is a mistake on their part, and reflects their downward trajectory and slipping programs. Their missteps are creating opportunities for the AAC, and if the on the field and TV ratings continue their current trajectories, Tulane and the AAC will be well positioned when the next domino does fall.
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Fri Oct 14, 2016 12:01 pm

jonathanjoseph wrote:
Ruski wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
Ruski wrote:Was Uconn beating Houston last season a "good win" for the AAC?
No. Does that make any of the rest of it any less relevant?
Yes, 100%. UConn beating Houston just like Navy beating Houston is not a necessarily good thing for the conference. It's a good win for UCONN just like the Navy win is a good win for Navy, not the conference. A good win for the conference would've been UCONN pulling out a close game against Mizzou last year or winning that bowl game against Marshall. The conference champion missed out on being undefeated and putting pressure on the playoff system all for UCONN to lose to freaking Marshall. Similarly the conference will miss that same potential this year and then when Navy loses another game, maybe to very mediocre Army or Notre Dame teams, it will all be for nothing. If Navy had beaten Air Force then sure Navy beating Houston could be good for the conference, people would be tuning in to see if Navy and Houston could run the table but they didn't. They lost to an average Air Force team. And with that loss and no games against ranked teams left, Navy will not be ranked higher than middle of the the top 25. Houston probably won't be ranked higher than 6/8, and that's if both teams run the table, highly unlikely.

Much more important games for the conference to win were: ECU v South Carolina, UCF v Maryland, Temple v Penn State, UCONN v Syracuse, Navy v Air Force, and even Tulane v Wake. All of these were close and very winnable games. The Ole Miss, Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan games, the AAC can win 1/5, 1/10 of those types of games and its fine. As long as they win these middle of the pack games.
Yes that would have been a "better" scenario. But you're still missing the broader point, which is that as a conference the AAC is gaining ground on the B12 and B10 very quickly. We don't have to have the ideal outcome in every individual matchup to achieve that. Even though we haven't had the optimal outcome in each of those matchups, the desired outcome is still coming to fruition more quickly than anyone imagined.

The B12 not expanding is a mistake on their part, and reflects their downward trajectory and slipping programs. Their missteps are creating opportunities for the AAC, and if the on the field and TV ratings continue their current trajectories, Tulane and the AAC will be well positioned when the next domino does fall.
The best way to gain ground would be to send a team to the playoffs and force 2 P5 conferences to watch from home. The best way to overtake Big12 would've been for Houston to make the playoff and win a game, giving AAC even playoff appearances and more playoff wins than Big12.
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Fri Oct 14, 2016 1:26 pm

Ruski wrote:
The best way to gain ground would be to send a team to the playoffs and force 2 P5 conferences to watch from home. The best way to overtake Big12 would've been for Houston to make the playoff and win a game, giving AAC even playoff appearances and more playoff wins than Big12.
That's fan logic, not conference commissioner and TV executive logic. Those things would help, for sure, but media rights contracts have been 10-15 years long. 15 years ago Baylor and TCU were awful. Short sighted decisions were made during the last round(s) of realignment and now conferences have buyers remorse and have learned their lesson (see: B12/WVU).

The AAC has a number of programs on the way up, currently including Tulane. The Big12 has the opposite. Aresco is playing the long game and any one school/season/game doesn't mean much in the long game.
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Fri Oct 14, 2016 2:50 pm

jonathanjoseph wrote:
Ruski wrote:
The best way to gain ground would be to send a team to the playoffs and force 2 P5 conferences to watch from home. The best way to overtake Big12 would've been for Houston to make the playoff and win a game, giving AAC even playoff appearances and more playoff wins than Big12.
That's fan logic, not conference commissioner and TV executive logic. Those things would help, for sure, but media rights contracts have been 10-15 years long. 15 years ago Baylor and TCU were awful. Short sighted decisions were made during the last round(s) of realignment and now conferences have buyers remorse and have learned their lesson (see: B12/WVU).

The AAC has a number of programs on the way up, currently including Tulane. The Big12 has the opposite. Aresco is playing the long game and any one school/season/game doesn't mean much in the long game.
15 years ago we had the BCS. A 12-0 Tulane team among other successful non-BCS teams forced the current playoff system. A playoff berth Houston would put more pressure on the current system, pushing AAC to P6 level more than any AAC win over itself ever could. Ultimately this argument comes down to AAC proving it deserves to compete with the big boys, no amount of AAC beating itself up will ever make that case.
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