Big XII Expansion

[Aberzombie1892]

I say forget about the Big 12 and see if we can snag one of the remaining two spots in the ACC eventually in a couple of years. We could be a great fit for that conference.

At this point, it's hard to see the ACC expanding by two from the G5 and it not include Cincinnati and UConn.

[winwave]

Latest is OU out w/ Nebraska coming back :

http://larrybrownsports.com/college-foo ... -12/326385

[mbawavefan12]

Latest is OU out w/ Nebraska coming back :

http://larrybrownsports.com/college-foo ... -12/326385

They r not giving up millions to join an unstable conference. Their brand has not grown cause of their performance on the field.

[winwave]

Latest is OU out w/ Nebraska coming back :

http://larrybrownsports.com/college-foo ... -12/326385

They r not giving up millions to join an unstable conference. Their brand has not grown cause of their performance on the field.

I mostly agree. Just giving the latest rumor out there. However they are #12 right now. So they are performing now.

[Aberzombie1892]

Nebraska would be a great get, but it still wouldn't address the Big 12 recruiting problem, and the adding of Nebraska, BYU, and Houston - even if Cincinnati is also added - would not be enough to address that problem and would make it worse for many teams in the conference. Honestly, it seems like some of the decision makers don't seem to understand that all the Big 12 needed to do was keep Texas and Texas A&M in the same conference and Texas recruiting would always be the oyster for the conference. However, due to poor conference leadership and decision making, Texas A&M left and that loss makes it impossible for the Big 12 to return to what it had been doing, which was relying solely on Texas for recruiting. Out of the current membership, Texas and OU can and can consistently have top 20 classes, but the rest of the conference cannot. If Nebraska is added, it would also be able to land to 20 classes, but the addition of it - combined with the additions of BYU and Houston - would water down the classes of everyone else in the conference who almost exclusively recruit Texas. TCU would probably remain a top 30 class and Houston would become a top 30 recruiting program, but Baylor/Oklahoma State/Texas Tech would likely see their recruiting classes start to drop into the 40s or lower. The addition of Cincinnati would probably help offset the stretching of Texas recruiting for Kansas State/Kansas/Iowa State, but that's about it. WVU doesn't recruit Texas extensively so it wouldn't be too affected by that proposed expansion.

Of course, all of this assumes that the membership of the "new" conference would largely remain the same aside from OU, which is a huge assumption. To be honest, Texas is probably the only program that could legitimately build a new access conference and be able to persuade access schools from different conferences to join it, and, because that is the case, it wouldn't be too surprising if some of the current Big 12 members would be left out.

[Aberzombie1892]

This another article about it. It cites the same source, but it adds additional information.

"I was told today members of the Big 12 are willing to let OU walk because Nebraska has expressed serious interest in rejoining the league ... Nebraska believes they would have access to significant TV money in a new Big 12 with Texas. BYU, Houston and Cincinnati would join ... TV sources told me a 'new Big 12' would have a different name and has been the plan Texas has been working since February ... Texas has expressed doubt about their fit in the Pac 12 and believe they would be able to have significant influence over a new conference."

"I am also told Texas would like to be part of the first 20 team conference ... The consistent story I am being told by multiple source is OU feels disrespected by Texas. several other members who were working with Texas to form a new conference and it turn out without OU.

"I have heard for going on a year that Nebraska enjoyed the revenue from the Big 10 but does not feel their brand has benefited or grown ... Multiple people have said OU was in position to push expansion through their desire to control the process & leverage smaller members - with GOR threats and revenue proration turn turned off many members.

"The issue for Texas is revenue; if they join the Pac 12 they don't make more than they are now [and] they don't view the SEC or Big 10 as an option ... So the only route for Texas to go is to build something different, not new, but different ... I believe Nebraska wants to return to the Big 12 because multiple sources from different businesses hv said they are exploring it and Texas and Nebraska are not the enemies people made them out to be."

http://www.metro.us/sports/big-12-expan ... obQvwnWQ2/

[golfnut69]

I have, with my limited internet IQ searched every major newspaper in Dallas, Ft Worth, Norman, Lincoln, Austin...not one printed word of Nebraska re joining... in fairness to Austin, Norman and Dallas, there is a game there this week end that means more than what appearance impaired moron we elect as President, so Nebraska is a non issue at this time...come to think of it, UT always thought Nebraska was a non issue

[RobertM320]

This makes a lot of sense, and is probably where our P5 opportunity will come from. Basically, the 7 B12 schools NOT named UT/OU make a deal with networks. They free up OU/UT/KU to make their own deals with other conferences now, in exchange for guaranteed P5 access, bowl tie-ins, etc, for an extra decade. At that point, they'll only have 7 schools at most, so they will need to expand. NOTE: OU Contacts is the person who is providing the info to Flugaur.

Blue/bolded is my own emphasis.


Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire Oct 5
OU-Contact
No B12 Implosion will occur by the way of 1 or more schools challenging the B12 GOR in court.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire Oct 5
OU-Contact
From the perception of OU there will be no course available to have 8 B12 schools taken by other P5 Conferences to dissolve B12.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire Oct 5
OU Contact
We are about 24 months away from schools such as Kansas State, Iowa State among others, wanting to make secruity deal w networks

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire Oct 5
OU Contacts
Most of B12 schools will want negotiations to take place in 2018/19 w Networks/P5 to secure B12 P5 status well after 2024/25.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire Oct 5
OU Contacts
West Virginia can't afford to gamble on 2024/25 outcome of a non controlled B12 implosion. Many others can't as well.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire Oct 5
OU Contacts
Only bargaining chip many B12 schls have in negotiating GOR/Network Deal/P5 Status ext is to release current GOR in 2018/19.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
OU Contacts
At some point in next 24 months relief will be given to all of B12 schools in 1 of 2 ways.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
1) Schls will be able to talk directly and start negotiations on Conf Realignment
2) Schls who remain in B12 get GOR/NET & P5 ect thur 2035

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
OU Contacts
Because of who we have talked with its our belief other Schls including UT share OU's same perception of future..24 months.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
OU Contacts
We don't believe the mechanics of the "relief plan" will truly up and going for another 24 months.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
OU Contacts
PAC, Big 10, SEC & ACC have zero interest in poaching 8 B12 Schls to dissolve Conf.
Value is not consistent enough thur the 8

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
OU Contact
Expect "Relief Plan" negotiations to start in approx 24 months with all Schls not named KU-OU-UT approaching NET/media partners.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
OU Contacts
From Networks view "Relief Plan" will be acceptable. To extend deal (w minimal bump) with schls remaining thur 2035..ok.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
OU Contacts
Regardless of final outcome in current EXP B12 talks, the current B12 GOR will not be extended.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
OU Contacts
B12 Schls who do not have belief that they will be a part of another P5 Conf expansion plan in 2024 will need to secure future.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
OU Contact
Next round of Conf Realignment begins when "B12 Relief Plan" negotiations start in what we believe is around another 24 months.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
Me:
This is different. OU Contacts have always stated there will be no reshuffling of B12 until 2025 because of GOR..which is real.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 24h24 hours ago
Me: But they've heard enough info in last 10 days for them to put out this info to our BTM.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 23h23 hours ago
We have received lots of great comments since our OU Contacts relayed to us the "B12 Relief Plan" OU believes will occur in 24 months

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 23h23 hours ago
However...we need to clear something up.
The number of B12 schls looking for secruity in plan will probably be less than 7.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 23h23 hours ago
The major point = there are no pathway (according to OU Contacts) for 8 B12 Schls to find new P5 homes.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 21h21 hours ago
Now imagine it being 2019..pressure will grow on ISU/WVU/KSU..etc..to cut a deal with networks for lasting security

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 21h21 hours ago
And the one chip to play for ISU/WVU..etc..to gain long term secruity is to release all B12 from current GOR.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 21h21 hours ago
Once the GOR is finished in 24/25...there is no more chip to play for "left overs" of Big 12.
Watch for "Relief Plan" approx 24 months

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 20h20 hours ago
Imagine big time WVU boosters/donors being asked to make $ available for new WVU investments in 2021 without P5 assurances past 2024...

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 20h20 hours ago
The perception of B12 not being stable now in 2016 (even with GOR) is having negative effects on individual Schls and of course Conference

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 20h20 hours ago
Now imagine the effect of a unstable B12 conference to these Schls who have no "2025 lifeboat"...in and about 2021-22..
..imagine.
Ugly.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 20h20 hours ago
The closer we get to 2024 the less leverage your ISU/KSU/WVU will have in getting the best "Relief Plan" results as possible.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 20h20 hours ago
And because of all this....it's why OU Contacts have reasons to believe "Relief Plan" truly gets going in about months from now.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 20h20 hours ago
The "Relief Plan" is a win-win for those Schls who leave B12 (quicker buy-in to new Conf)..and for those who stay(secruity beyond 2025)

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 20h20 hours ago
OU & UT

1 or both will leave B12 by 2025

WVU/ISU..etc have 2 choices.
1) Get something in return of 1 or both leaving early
2) Get nada

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 20h20 hours ago
The ignition to next RD of realignment will be the B12 5-6-7 Schls who won't have landing spot outside of B12 beyond 2024.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 20h20 hours ago
These schools will act in accordance to their best long term interest & will secure it by playing their chip.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 20h20 hours ago
..And their chip is in 2-3 years to release current members from current B12 GOR.
BOA
Best Outcome Available.


Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 19h19 hours ago
They get to maintain P5 status well beyond 2025...better future payout without deal...tie in to bowl gms..etc.

Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 18h18 hours ago
Why did ESPN decided to invest in ACCN
Vs
Why ESPN & FOX took pass on B12N?
Answer will lead you to the "why's" in OU + "few" leaving B12

[jonathanjoseph]

Wow. Very interesting. As I predicted, LHN would be the undoing of the conference. OU is right to push back.

Also, it's very very good news for Tulane that the WVU/ISU's of the B12 will need to play their chip. If it's indeed true that they will be able to secure some "P5" type money from the conferences, Aresco would have plenty of ammo to get the AAC a similar type media contract.

Has anyone been following the ratings? I don't remember the exact numbers, but I believe last Thursday's Uconn/Houston game got 3X the viewers that the Texas Tech/Kansas game got on FS1. Obvious caveats apply, but that paints a fairly clear picture.

And the "new" breakoff conference scenarios are also great for Tulane. Also holds good with my prediction that there is far more movement going forward then there is in the rear view mirror.

[RobertM320]

My take was that OU, UT and probably KU would move on to other P5's, while the remaining ones would be guaranteed to remain a P5, albeit a lesser one than the other 4. With only 7 teams, they'd have to look at adding 3-5 teams. IF this happens in a few years, it would still mean a watered down B12 WITH P5 access > AAC without access.

Another thing that was mentioned was that the networks have already invested millions of dollars in these brands, so they're not going to let it go to waste.

[golfnut69]

My take was that OU, UT and probably KU would move on to other P5's, while the remaining ones would be guaranteed to remain a P5, albeit a lesser one than the other 4. With only 7 teams, they'd have to look at adding 3-5 teams. IF this happens in a few years, it would still mean a watered down B12 WITH P5 access > AAC without access.

Another thing that was mentioned was that the networks have already invested millions of dollars in these brands, so they're not going to let it go to waste.

U would have to be pretty damn watered down to reach the low's of Kansas !!!..

[RobertM320]

My take was that OU, UT and probably KU would move on to other P5's, while the remaining ones would be guaranteed to remain a P5, albeit a lesser one than the other 4. With only 7 teams, they'd have to look at adding 3-5 teams. IF this happens in a few years, it would still mean a watered down B12 WITH P5 access > AAC without access.

Another thing that was mentioned was that the networks have already invested millions of dollars in these brands, so they're not going to let it go to waste.

U would have to be pretty damn watered down to reach the low's of Kansas !!!..

Kansas basketball will probably get them into another P5 conf. Those remaining B12 teams still have a better brand than AAC, and if they maintain their P5 access and AAC doesn't have one, then that's where we'd want to be. Truth is, the simplest answer to it all is to expand CFP to 8 teams, add AAC as the sixth power conference, then everyone's happy.

[jonathanjoseph]

My take was that OU, UT and probably KU would move on to other P5's, while the remaining ones would be guaranteed to remain a P5, albeit a lesser one than the other 4. With only 7 teams, they'd have to look at adding 3-5 teams. IF this happens in a few years, it would still mean a watered down B12 WITH P5 access > AAC without access.

Another thing that was mentioned was that the networks have already invested millions of dollars in these brands, so they're not going to let it go to waste.

Right. But the point I'm making is that whatever deal the "watered down P5" would be entitled to would be the bargaining chip for Aresco and the AAC. Right now, ratings and on-field success are both in the favor of the AAC vs the Big 12 minus OU/UT/KU.

[Aberzombie1892]

Right. But the point I'm making is that whatever deal the "watered down P5" would be entitled to would be the bargaining chip for Aresco and the AAC. Right now, ratings and on-field success are both in the favor of the AAC vs the Big 12 minus OU/UT/KU.

I see the argument that you're making, but it seems unlikely the AAC would warrant as much tv money as even the existing Big 12 minus OU and UT. The best example of the AACs tv issues is the USF v. Cincinnati game. It was probably one of the biggest AAC conference games this season that doesn't include Houston - likely the biggest game in the AAC East overall - and it only had 144K viewers(!). Granted the was on ESPNU, but viewership like that is not going to get more AAC games shown on "regular" ESPN, ABC, CBS, or FS1. Given that the Kansas/Texas Tech game drew 513K on FS1, it likely would have still significantly outdrawn 144K on ESPNU - and that game isn't even interesting for people that aren't fan bases of either team unless they just want to watch TTUs QB in action.

[GreenPuddleSplash]

Well, here's a new twist in this expansion today. All speculation like all of this, but rumor is Nebraska wants to go back to the B12.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/ ... ar-BBx2U0W

[golfnut69]

Well, here's a new twist in this expansion today. All speculation like all of this, but rumor is Nebraska wants to go back to the B12.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/ ... ar-BBx2U0W

I am not sure what Nebraska really brings...on Football Saturdays the stadium in Lincoln becomes the third largest city in the state..after football Saturday's you are stuck being Nebraska...and since the "county ride walk on program" was dismantled by the NCAA they have not been a serious contender in any conference

[winwave]

Well, here's a new twist in this expansion today. All speculation like all of this, but rumor is Nebraska wants to go back to the B12.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/ ... ar-BBx2U0W

I am not sure what Nebraska really brings...on Football Saturdays the stadium in Lincoln becomes the third largest city in the state..after football Saturday's you are stuck being Nebraska...and since the "county ride walk on program" was dismantled by the NCAA they have not been a serious contender in any conference

They are #12 in the country . That's serious.

[RobertM320]

My take was that OU, UT and probably KU would move on to other P5's, while the remaining ones would be guaranteed to remain a P5, albeit a lesser one than the other 4. With only 7 teams, they'd have to look at adding 3-5 teams. IF this happens in a few years, it would still mean a watered down B12 WITH P5 access > AAC without access.

Another thing that was mentioned was that the networks have already invested millions of dollars in these brands, so they're not going to let it go to waste.

Right. But the point I'm making is that whatever deal the "watered down P5" would be entitled to would be the bargaining chip for Aresco and the AAC. Right now, ratings and on-field success are both in the favor of the AAC vs the Big 12 minus OU/UT/KU.

I agree, it could get the AAC some extra cash, but branding wise, the leftover B12 schools are still higher profile than the AAC schools. And they'd have P5 access still as well.

[golfnut69]

Well, here's a new twist in this expansion today. All speculation like all of this, but rumor is Nebraska wants to go back to the B12.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/ ... ar-BBx2U0W

I am not sure what Nebraska really brings...on Football Saturdays the stadium in Lincoln becomes the third largest city in the state..after football Saturday's you are stuck being Nebraska...and since the "county ride walk on program" was dismantled by the NCAA they have not been a serious contender in any conference

They are #12 in the country . That's serious.

They won't be for much longer !!!!...ND was number 10...OU number 3....what was Stanford 5 ?....FSU....LSU....TCU....they were "all serious"...or were they ?

[jonathanjoseph]

Right. But the point I'm making is that whatever deal the "watered down P5" would be entitled to would be the bargaining chip for Aresco and the AAC. Right now, ratings and on-field success are both in the favor of the AAC vs the Big 12 minus OU/UT/KU.

I see the argument that you're making, but it seems unlikely the AAC would warrant as much tv money as even the existing Big 12 minus OU and UT. The best example of the AACs tv issues is the USF v. Cincinnati game. It was probably one of the biggest AAC conference games this season that doesn't include Houston - likely the biggest game in the AAC East overall - and it only had 144K viewers(!). Granted the was on ESPNU, but viewership like that is not going to get more AAC games shown on "regular" ESPN, ABC, CBS, or FS1. Given that the Kansas/Texas Tech game drew 513K on FS1, it likely would have still significantly outdrawn 144K on ESPNU - and that game isn't even interesting for people that aren't fan bases of either team unless they just want to watch TTUs QB in action.

Once again you are trying to retrofit arguments to your existing beliefs. I just cited last weeks AAC matchup (Houston vs UConn) going head to head against a B12 matchup (Kansas vs TT) and the AAC matchup had 3X the viewers. It's legitimately disingenuous to compare games from 2 different nights, time slots, etc. You fail to mention that the USF v UC game was competing against Clemson vs Louisville, which was one of the most watched college football games ever, not to mention some other big name programs playing during that time slot.

Aresco isn't going to go into any negotiations with AP top 25 or emotional arguments. The ratings make clear that Big 12 without UT/OU isn't worth much if any more than the AAC.

[jonathanjoseph]

My take was that OU, UT and probably KU would move on to other P5's, while the remaining ones would be guaranteed to remain a P5, albeit a lesser one than the other 4. With only 7 teams, they'd have to look at adding 3-5 teams. IF this happens in a few years, it would still mean a watered down B12 WITH P5 access > AAC without access.

Another thing that was mentioned was that the networks have already invested millions of dollars in these brands, so they're not going to let it go to waste.

Right. But the point I'm making is that whatever deal the "watered down P5" would be entitled to would be the bargaining chip for Aresco and the AAC. Right now, ratings and on-field success are both in the favor of the AAC vs the Big 12 minus OU/UT/KU.

I agree, it could get the AAC some extra cash, but branding wise, the leftover B12 schools are still higher profile than the AAC schools. And they'd have P5 access still as well.

You are missing the forest for the trees. The leftover B12 schools are not at all higher profile than the AAC, and P5 access is irrelevant to the discussion. You don't see Iowa State or Kansas competing for the college football playoff because they have P5 access.

[golfnut69]

My take was that OU, UT and probably KU would move on to other P5's, while the remaining ones would be guaranteed to remain a P5, albeit a lesser one than the other 4. With only 7 teams, they'd have to look at adding 3-5 teams. IF this happens in a few years, it would still mean a watered down B12 WITH P5 access > AAC without access.

Another thing that was mentioned was that the networks have already invested millions of dollars in these brands, so they're not going to let it go to waste.

Right. But the point I'm making is that whatever deal the "watered down P5" would be entitled to would be the bargaining chip for Aresco and the AAC. Right now, ratings and on-field success are both in the favor of the AAC vs the Big 12 minus OU/UT/KU.

I agree, it could get the AAC some extra cash, but branding wise, the leftover B12 schools are still higher profile than the AAC schools. And they'd have P5 access still as well.

You are missing the forest for the trees. The leftover B12 schools are not at all higher profile than the AAC, and P5 access is irrelevant to the discussion. You don't see Iowa State or Kansas competing for the college football playoff because they have P5 access.

I don't see Duke, Rutgers, Wake, Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Colorado, Washington State, USC, Iowa State, KSU, Purdue,Mizzou,Arizona, Vandy etc...for the most part the majority of PEE 5 schools get a krap load of money and give you piss poor performance in return.....if this was on shark tank, Kevin o'Leary would tell them to go behind the barn and shoot it

[mbawavefan12]

Right. But the point I'm making is that whatever deal the "watered down P5" would be entitled to would be the bargaining chip for Aresco and the AAC. Right now, ratings and on-field success are both in the favor of the AAC vs the Big 12 minus OU/UT/KU.

I see the argument that you're making, but it seems unlikely the AAC would warrant as much tv money as even the existing Big 12 minus OU and UT. The best example of the AACs tv issues is the USF v. Cincinnati game. It was probably one of the biggest AAC conference games this season that doesn't include Houston - likely the biggest game in the AAC East overall - and it only had 144K viewers(!). Granted the was on ESPNU, but viewership like that is not going to get more AAC games shown on "regular" ESPN, ABC, CBS, or FS1. Given that the Kansas/Texas Tech game drew 513K on FS1, it likely would have still significantly outdrawn 144K on ESPNU - and that game isn't even interesting for people that aren't fan bases of either team unless they just want to watch TTUs QB in action.

Once again you are trying to retrofit arguments to your existing beliefs. I just cited last weeks AAC matchup (Houston vs UConn) going head to head against a B12 matchup (Kansas vs TT) and the AAC matchup had 3X the viewers. It's legitimately disingenuous to compare games from 2 different nights, time slots, etc. You fail to mention that the USF v UC game was competing against Clemson vs Louisville, which was one of the most watched college football games ever, not to mention some other big name programs playing during that time slot.

Aresco isn't going to go into any negotiations with AP top 25 or emotional arguments. The ratings make clear that Big 12 without UT/OU isn't worth much if any more than the AAC.

Wait, yet you are free to make comparisons between games on two different networks, one of which has a massively larger market penetration. FS1 remains a desert.

[golfnut69]

will UT and OU deliver life support ?

http://www.espn.com/college-football/st ... do-want-to

[winwave]

Well, here's a new twist in this expansion today. All speculation like all of this, but rumor is Nebraska wants to go back to the B12.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/ ... ar-BBx2U0W

I am not sure what Nebraska really brings...on Football Saturdays the stadium in Lincoln becomes the third largest city in the state..after football Saturday's you are stuck being Nebraska...and since the "county ride walk on program" was dismantled by the NCAA they have not been a serious contender in any conference

They are #12 in the country . That's serious.

They won't be for much longer !!!!...ND was number 10...OU number 3....what was Stanford 5 ?....FSU....LSU....TCU....they were "all serious"...or were they ?

Except they didn't start out there. They have moved up while others moved down. Also, lots of season left for others to move back up.