Big XII Expansion

Discuss anything else athletic or non-athletic related that doesn't belong on the main Tulane athletics forum.
winwave
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Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:34 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
winwave wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:But on the flip side, they can't turn around and say the AAC isn't good enough to be considered a power conference when 50% or more of the current P5 members aren't any better than any AAC team.
Houston is hot right now but the AAC does not have one marquee program. That's what makes all the P5's.
We don't have a marquee program, BECAUSE we're not a P5 conference. Before they were members of P5 conferences, Louisville, TCU, Virginia Tech, etc, weren't marquee programs. Take a look at the schools that were with us at one point in the Metro conference. Any school that was in that conference wasn't a marquee school. But you include : Louisville, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia Tech. UConn would be considered a marquee program IF they were still in the Big East and it was a P5 conference. Its all about perception.
We have a different take on marquee. None of those schools are marquee. Texas and Oklahoma based on their long history of success throughout their existence.


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RobertM320
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Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:43 pm

By that token, there's only about 10 marquee school period. And they'd be marquee schools with or without being in a P5.
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Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:48 pm

That's my point. They stand out so much they make everybody else in their conference worth the contract.
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RobertM320
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Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:57 pm

winwave wrote:That's my point. They stand out so much they make everybody else in their conference worth the contract.
Legit point.
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Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:06 pm

RobertM320 wrote:
winwave wrote:That's my point. They stand out so much they make everybody else in their conference worth the contract.
Legit point.
Trust me like you I wish it would work out for the AAC to become the P6th. I just don't think it's practical to expect it to happen. It's why everyone in it is trying to get out. Tulane athletics lived in denial for too long. This is no time for that.
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Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:23 pm

When it gets to the point where AAC conference games consistently mean something significant, the networks will come calling. When there are at least 4-5 teams consistently in the top 30 and 2 teams in the top 15 and 1 in the top 10, the money will start coming. Whether fair or not, the P5s have earned it over decades of winning. The laggards were smart enough not to get out!
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RobertM320
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Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:50 pm

anEngineer wrote:When it gets to the point where AAC conference games consistently mean something significant, the networks will come calling. When there are at least 4-5 teams consistently in the top 30 and 2 teams in the top 15 and 1 in the top 10, the money will start coming. Whether fair or not, the P5s have earned it over decades of winning. The laggards were smart enough not to get out!
This is correct. If we have teams ranked all the time, and every week one of our conf games features two ranked teams, they'll have no choice but to ante up, or risk losing it to some of the new media like Amazon.
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Aberzombie1892
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Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:52 pm

anEngineer wrote:When it gets to the point where AAC conference games consistently mean something significant, the networks will come calling. When there are at least 4-5 teams consistently in the top 30 and 2 teams in the top 15 and 1 in the top 10, the money will start coming. Whether fair or not, the P5s have earned it over decades of winning. The laggards were smart enough not to get out!
But that won't happen since the pollsters won't put 3-4 AAC teams in the very important preseason top 25 at the expense of leaving out existing P5 teams for a bunch of reasons. While I disagree with preseason rankings, those rankings form the basis of all future rankings and they certainly impact the playoff rankings even though people pretend they don't.
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RobertM320
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Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:57 pm

We need every season to be like last year. You had Houston and Memphis getting into late October with only one loss between them, and Navy with one loss as well. Its possible to have Houston, Memphis, Navy and USF all with 0 or 1 loss by late October. At that point, they'd all be ranked and our Nov games would match ranked teams.

However, the key ultimately is that when all those teams go to bowl games, they HAVE to win. That way they finish the season ranked. Any school, even Boise State, that finishes a season ranked two or three years in a row and wins their bowl games will finally end up ranked to start the season.

Its not going to be an overnight thing. Its going to take multiple years to get to that point and it won't be easy, but it can be done.
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Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:45 pm

on todays DFW paper web site...I am out of "free reads" for the month

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college ... -expansion
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Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:57 pm

RobertM320 wrote:We need every season to be like last year. You had Houston and Memphis getting into late October with only one loss between them, and Navy with one loss as well. Its possible to have Houston, Memphis, Navy and USF all with 0 or 1 loss by late October. At that point, they'd all be ranked and our Nov games would match ranked teams.

However, the key ultimately is that when all those teams go to bowl games, they HAVE to win. That way they finish the season ranked. Any school, even Boise State, that finishes a season ranked two or three years in a row and wins their bowl games will finally end up ranked to start the season.

Its not going to be an overnight thing. Its going to take multiple years to get to that point and it won't be easy, but it can be done.
The money gap is just way too significant. AAC schools will either rise and fall as their rosters get too young and coaches leave....and/or they will go in huge debt to try to "prove" themselves to get the golden P5 ticket and take on the financial risk. A little bit of both is currently happening.
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Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:12 pm

But evenutally, if we all keep winning, people are going to want to see AAC teams play, and some network would spend the cash. We might be just a tad below the current P5, but if we could get $12-14M each while they're getting $25-30M, it still beats the heck out of the current $4M.
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Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:24 pm

RobertM320 wrote:But evenutally, if we all keep winning, people are going to want to see AAC teams play, and some network would spend the cash. We might be just a tad below the current P5, but if we could get $12-14M each while they're getting $25-30M, it still beats the heck out of the current $4M.

Of course, but there are several years to go and expansion possibilities to dilute the league. We get $2.1mm in TV money btw, maybe $4mm after NCAA credits and BE fees. I find it hard to believe that the TV people will jump us up that much. Fact is the initial contract was completely bogus and I will never give up that POV. There is no way the AAC schools are worth 1/10th (or less) than the B12. Yet Aresco collects his $1mm+ check. Imagine, the commish gets half of what each entire school receives. But I digress. The P5 golden goose is the best and worst thing that has happened to this conference.
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Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:09 pm

golfnut69 wrote:on todays DFW paper web site...I am out of "free reads" for the month

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college ... -expansion
Just a rehash of comments from the Texas Lt. Governor (who is a full blown moron) about Houston.
golfnut69
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Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:19 pm

shorebreak wrote:
golfnut69 wrote:on todays DFW paper web site...I am out of "free reads" for the month

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college ... -expansion
Just a rehash of comments from the Texas Lt. Governor (who is a full blown moron) about Houston.

he may be a moron, but I bet he is counting his days until he appears on Dancing with The Stars
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jonathanjoseph
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Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:23 pm

mbawavefan12 wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:But evenutally, if we all keep winning, people are going to want to see AAC teams play, and some network would spend the cash. We might be just a tad below the current P5, but if we could get $12-14M each while they're getting $25-30M, it still beats the heck out of the current $4M.

Of course, but there are several years to go and expansion possibilities to dilute the league. We get $2.1mm in TV money btw, maybe $4mm after NCAA credits and BE fees. I find it hard to believe that the TV people will jump us up that much. Fact is the initial contract was completely bogus and I will never give up that POV. There is no way the AAC schools are worth 1/10th (or less) than the B12. Yet Aresco collects his $1mm+ check. Imagine, the commish gets half of what each entire school receives. But I digress. The P5 golden goose is the best and worst thing that has happened to this conference.
It's not that black and white. IIRC the TV money contract reverted when some clause was triggered when previous schools left the conference.

Aresco is right that there is more money out there for college football. There are also better distribution platforms. And so far, amazingly, NFL ratings are down slightly and college football ratings are noticeably up. All the macro trends are great for Tulane.

The problem is the smoking crater of a hole Dannen and Fritz are trying to crawl out of. Our talent is not near where it needs to be, which is a bad thing since recruiting is taking a noticeable step backwards and the stadium looks more like a white elephant every week. If we win, there will be ratings and Aresco and/or Dannen will be able to monetize better in the future. The question is, how long and what will it take to win.
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Thu Sep 22, 2016 5:54 am

Be a Hero Today.... Adopt a Shelter Pet... The Beatles once sang "Can't Buy Me Love"... I disagree, unconditional Love can be bought, for the nominal adoption fee at your local Pet Shelter !
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Thu Sep 22, 2016 6:16 am

Well you haven't missed much by being locked out. Chuck Carlton, the Dallas newspaper's writing head and self-proclaimed expert on expansion has always rated Tulane's chances as nil. Period. He has always rated UC and UH as the top candidates with an occasional dollop of BYU and others. Period. Nothing has changed for months other than his "surprise" that Tulane is still in play. Carlton's writing is nothing more than conventional wisdom writ large and often.
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RobertM320
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Thu Sep 22, 2016 2:19 pm

The latest Twitter info: the first part seems to be the info from his OU Contact, the second part is his take on the info.
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 2h2 hours ago
Limited but specific BTM/OU Contact info coming up shortly.
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
BTM:OU Contacts
"Boren has made it known Oklahoma will not support B12 expansion which doesn't open up future B12N possibilities"
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
BTM:OU Contact
"Texas is pushing Expansion Package which does not elevate value of B12 Conference toward a possible new Network"
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
BTM:OU Contacts
"Expect Oklahoma to vote against UC/UH package. Expect Oklahoma to walk away from any 2016 resolution."
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
BTM:OU Contacts
"Boren did not push for B12 reform for results to end up in "Texas Wheelhouse"
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
Me:
From what I know of these guys.. Same guys who broke B12 wrestling expansion...IMO take this serious. OU & UT still far apart on vision
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
Me: Without BYU protecting B12 Presidents politically (threading needle on HC) there is no discussion from OU Contacts on going to 14 now...
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
Me: What we didn't get from OU Contacts today is what 2 school package are they supporting now if any. In Winter it was UC/UConn..
Greg Flugaur ‏@flugempire 1h1 hour ago
Me: But today, if you choose to believe our OU Contacts, the door on a UC/UH package is shut...at least from OU perspective.
Door slam.
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Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:33 am

The latest by ESPN's Jake Trotter: Things not looking good for BYU

http://www.espn.com/college-football/st ... sion-talks
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Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:11 am

Thank you for those tweets, Robert.

So, it seems like Texas wants UC/UH and Oklahoma wants UC/UConn (at least in the Winter)? At this point, the Big 12 needs to expand by 14, add Tulane and Cincinnati, and get on its hand and knees and beg/do whatever it takes for Georgia Tech and Miami to join. That would be perfect - Louisiana/Ohio/Georgia/Florida all in one expansion with adding one of the top 2 programs in 3/4 states (I'm fudging a little to make Tulane look better, but the point still stands).
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Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:30 am

I think OU is flat out against UH, and Texas is against UC. I think what he meant was, back in the winter they were supporting a UC/UConn expansion, now maybe they want UC/BYU. And from what I've read, WVU doesn't want Cincinnati. But don't ask me, I have no idea! LOL

Basically, OU is fed up with catering to Texas' desires, which in this case seems to be adding UH. I still think if they do nothing its better for us in the long run. We're still marginal right now, even in they go to 14. Give it two years and we get ourselves right on the field and court, and the B12 figures out what they want to do, and we become a front runner.
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Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:36 am

Aberzombie1892 wrote:Thank you for those tweets, Robert.

So, it seems like Texas wants UC/UH and Oklahoma wants UC/UConn (at least in the Winter)? At this point, the Big 12 needs to expand by 14, add Tulane and Cincinnati, and get on its hand and knees and beg/do whatever it takes for Georgia Tech and Miami to join. That would be perfect - Louisiana/Ohio/Georgia/Florida all in one expansion with adding one of the top 2 programs in 3/4 states (I'm fudging a little to make Tulane look better, but the point still stands).
Azer, why would Miami and Ga. Tech want to leave the ACC when it's thriving compared to the B12?
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Fri Sep 23, 2016 11:07 am

GreenPuddleSplash wrote:Azer, why would Miami and Ga. Tech want to leave the ACC when it's thriving compared to the B12?
I don't think those two teams are likely to leave, but they would make the most sense. Ideally, that would be approached with the arguments below.

Miami seems poised to be the #2 ACC team in Florida permanently - it has never won the conference, it rarely has better recruiting classes than FSUs, and it lives in the shadow of FSU. The attractiveness of the Big 12 would be that Miami could leave that shadow and become it's own major brand (again) in a different major conference than the one that FSU resides in the same way that Texas A&M did to Texas when it left the Big 12 for the SEC.

An arguable additional point would be that the schedule would generally be better assuming that the 4 team expansion took place - imagine a yearly neutral site game in Tampa against WVU (Miami doesn't have to leave the state and WVU can continue to recruit FL) along with a hypothetical single year schedule - home games against Oklahoma State/TCU/Kansas State/Tulane and road games against Oklahoma/Iowa State/Cincinnati/Georgia Tech (this schedule misses Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas, and Texas). That's not too bad for a hypothetical conference schedule (notwithstanding this particular Big 12 season), and Miami could, in theory, also pick up FSU as a permanent home and home game. Georgia Tech would be approached primarily on the schedule front as well.

The real kicker for the two teams would be being able to establish their own 3rd tier rights contracts - Miami would make a fortune off of 3rd tier rights, and Georgia Tech would do decently as well.
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Fri Sep 23, 2016 11:15 am

Aberzombie1892 wrote:
GreenPuddleSplash wrote:Azer, why would Miami and Ga. Tech want to leave the ACC when it's thriving compared to the B12?
I don't think those two teams are likely to leave, but they would make the most sense. Ideally, that would be approached with the arguments below.

Miami seems poised to be the #2 ACC team in Florida permanently - it has never won the conference, it rarely has better recruiting classes than FSUs, and it lives in the shadow of FSU. The attractiveness of the Big 12 would be that Miami could leave that shadow and become it's own major brand (again) in a different major conference than the one that FSU resides in the same way that Texas A&M did to Texas when it left the Big 12 for the SEC.

An arguable additional point would be that the schedule would generally be better assuming that the 4 team expansion took place - imagine a yearly neutral site game in Tampa against WVU (Miami doesn't have to leave the state and WVU can continue to recruit FL) along with a hypothetical single year schedule - home games against Oklahoma State/TCU/Kansas State/Tulane and road games against Oklahoma/Iowa State/Cincinnati/Georgia Tech (this schedule misses Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas, and Texas). That's not too bad for a hypothetical conference schedule (notwithstanding this particular Big 12 season), and Miami could, in theory, also pick up FSU as a permanent home and home game. Georgia Tech would be approached primarily on the schedule front as well.

The real kicker for the two teams would be being able to establish their own 3rd tier rights contracts - Miami would make a fortune off of 3rd tier rights, and Georgia Tech would do decently as well.
All that is nice in theory, but no one is leaving a stable healthy conference for the Big 12 mess.
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