Big XII Expansion

[jonathanjoseph]

Unfortunately what is going to happen is the P5's are going to vote to go above the 85 limit. They have been making noise about it so you can bet it's coming sooner than later.

I was thinking that as well. But there will eventually be a limit. Does them no good to have 200 players on the football team. Lots of those kids would never play. Unless they go back to fielding JV teams for Fr and So. Given today's desire for live content, I'd bet you'd get people to watch Alabama vs LSU frosh teams.

Correct. Consolidation is not in anyone's interest, and most importantly the media partners who need content.

[jonathanjoseph]

Here's what I think will ultimately happen. Tulane will become a member of a UT and OU-less BIGXII. Similar to what happened with the Big East years ago. Then, hello CUSA 2.0.

I don't know. Would being in a conference with K-State, Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, etc, still be preferable to playing Tulsa, Memphis, So Miss, or god forbid, Marshall or UTSA?

Well it doesn't really matter who we play if our TV revenue increases by 20X. There will not be a Big 12 if UT and OU leave, so it's a moot point. More chaos for college athletics is good for Tulane.

[winwave]

Here's what I think will ultimately happen. Tulane will become a member of a UT and OU-less BIGXII. Similar to what happened with the Big East years ago. Then, hello CUSA 2.0.

What do you mean by CUSA 2.0? I would say that C-USA 1.0 was hugely successful for most members. TCU, UL, UH, UC, ECU, USF, etc all did a great job of building their programs. Tulane didn't because it didn't try. On the basketball side, Marquette and DePaul are in their preferred Big East home now. Can't say it wasn't good for them.

C-USA 2.0, to me, means the current iteration -- where the league replaced the above departures with commuter schools that didn't even exist 40 years ago (UTSA, FIU, FAU, etc)

I can't see the Big 12 remnants becoming that. What I can see it becoming is a souped up AAC.

Assuming that the B1G takes Kansas and Texas (both AAU) and becomes the first mega conference, I could see OU, OK State, K State, and Texas Tech forming a Western division of a 16 team Pac 12.

That would leave Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, and WVU, which would all be within the AAC foot print. The AAC might grab UCONN, but it would be hard not to see the other 11 AAC football schools merging with these four remnants (and maybe adding BYU or Air Force FB). That would be a very strong conference.

Not really sure what I'm saying. I guess I personally just feel a BigXII without UT and OU really isn't as appealing. I don't think CUSA 1.0 was bad. Not at all. I just feel if we make it into a watered down conference (BIGXII without UT and OU), then we really are in the same position as we were back in our CUSA days. I think there is a better chance any BIGXII remnants would join other power conferences vs. starting their own. And then where does that leave us? Better, improved, but still on the outside looking in.

I agree w/Steve. Without Texas or Oklahoma the new conference wouldn't command top dollar or anywhere close to it. In the AAC members get $2million. In this new version it might get $4 million a member. Better but not really making a difference.

[RobertM320]

I didn't mean it as far as placating WVU. I meant the rest of conference complains about going to WVU, so adding UC makes travel more palatable, especially for other sports. Doing that, then turning around and adding only one Florida school would just recreate the same situation they've been complaining about.

But doesn't adding 2 FLA schools only make that problem worse? Either the travel is a problem or it isn't. Either expansion into eastern markets is important or it isn't. That's why Tulane makes the most sense of all those, because it's not hard travel wise and still adds an important new market.

I agree with Tulane makes the most sense. As far as adding two schools, it makes it better than adding one plus UConn, for instance, as far as travel is concerned. Its mostly for the other sports. They could schedule so that any traveling team goes to both Florida schools at once, instead of having to go to UConn and BYU for instance. I think that's the positive to Cincy for WVU, but it seems like there's a lot of anti-UC sentiment among the Big12.

[NOLABigSteve]

I agree w/Steve. Without Texas or Oklahoma the new conference wouldn't command top dollar or anywhere close to it. In the AAC members get $2million. In this new version it might get $4 million a member. Better but not really making a difference.

Right. The new BigXII wouldn't be nearly as lucrative as it is in its current state.

As much of a shitshow as the Big XII may be it's still the last chopper out of Nam for any G5.

100% agreed. Even though the above could play out, we really need that invite now, or at a later time.

[HoustonWave]

Unfortunately what is going to happen is the P5's are going to vote to go above the 85 limit. They have been making noise about it so you can bet it's coming sooner than later.

I was thinking that as well. But there will eventually be a limit. Does them no good to have 200 players on the football team. Lots of those kids would never play. Unless they go back to fielding JV teams for Fr and So. Given today's desire for live content, I'd bet you'd get people to watch Alabama vs LSU frosh teams.

That's exactly what will happen if they increase the schollie limit. It will take us back to the 60's and early 70's when schools carried well over 100 scholarship players, and yes, the big schools would often recruit players just to keep them off the opponent's team, even though they knew there was little chance that player would ever get much playing time. Oddly enough, it was the prospect for unlimited scholarships, that gave Tulane one more reason to leave the SEC, which I believe had a limit. As an indy, Tulane could give out as many schollies as it wanted--and that would be a way back to football relevance. And to some degree it succeeded, by laying the foundation for the Pittman and Ellender years. I remember my freshman year we had a slew of new freshmen (Steve Foley and Charlie Hall class), way beyond the annual limits we see today. And yes we had a fantastic freshman team that year. It was the next year, 1972, when freshmen became eligible to play varsity.

[HoustonWave]

I am not sure Texas and OU will be leaving the Big 12 anytime soon...first a conference has to extend an invite, the two logical conferences would be either the PAC 12 or SEC with the Big10 a long shot.... The PAC 12 had an opportunity to offer UT and OU when they invited Colorado..they chose to allow both OU and UT to be the ass' they are, alone in their own play pen. UT and OU both realize the easiest way to the College playoff as we know them is thru the Big 12...OU in the SEC would be Arkansas West, UT may fare somewhat better, but their conference schedule each year would have LSU, A&M, OU, Arkansas, Ole MIss plus a X-Over game, can anyone say Alabama, AU, Florida, Georgia...UT does not want that, nor does OU...If OU and UT leaves the Big 12, and that will be in at least two years, a Big 12 with the additions of Houston, BYU, Cincy is one hell of alot better than anything Tulane has seen since it's SEC days. I also suspect, that in some way, political or in some smoke filled back room, OU and OSU are a packaged deal

No doubt that OU and UT would be better off long term by staying in the Big XII, but their colliding egos may blow the whole thing apart over this expansion. I'm shocked if it's true that 7 teams are against Cincy--that would strongly suggest that UT successfully did an end run on OU, as OU and WVU have been Cincy's strongest supporters. The so called Plan B, with BYU (and probably others) is perhaps OU's retaliation. If they do blow up the Big XII over this expansion deadlock, both OU and UT may first try to form their own conferences before looking to the PAC 12, SEC or B1G. I bet the Big XII's little 8 already know which faction they will align with, especially if there actually is a Plan B already circulating. Perhaps there was more logic to the 20 team cattle call than was initially apparent. Both factions now have a host of info on all 20 schools.

[RobertM320]

Question, if Texas and OU were to form two separate conferences, what would happen to the P5 status of the Big 12? Meaning, would one of the two new conferences get that, or would they both get that? Or, would the P5 become the P4. Also, you'd have to think ESPN would pay more to a conference with OU in it than they would to the AAC. As for Texas, if they form their own conference, the LHN would still be an issue. Would ESPN, Fox or someone else pay for rights to a conference network?

[RobertM320]

Or, what if OU were to cut a deal with the AAC and bring OU, OSU, KU and K-State? Would that be enough to get the AAC P5 status?

[HoustonWave]

Question, if Texas and OU were to form two separate conferences, what would happen to the P5 status of the Big 12? Meaning, would one of the two new conferences get that, or would they both get that? Or, would the P5 become the P4. Also, you'd have to think ESPN would pay more to a conference with OU in it than they would to the AAC. As for Texas, if they form their own conference, the LHN would still be an issue. Would ESPN, Fox or someone else pay for rights to a conference network?

Considering that the current Big XII is barely hanging onto P5 status, my guess is we would have a P4, three decent non-P4s (OU's, UT's and AAC), and the four lagging conferences (MWC, CUSA, MAC and Sunbelt). Presumably 8 to 12 schools might get picked out of the MWC, MAC and CUSA to fill the ranks of the OU, UT and AAC conferences in all the shuffling. My guess is we would end up in the UT conference. We might get an invite from the OU conference, and it might look more attractive, but oh the travel.

[RobertM320]

And the cluster continues. What a disfunctional conference. I hope when all this is said and done, someone on the inside writes a book covering the entire process. It would be hilarious to read.


Jake TrotterVerified account
‏@Jake_Trotter
David Boren: "I’m not saying there won't be expansion. But I’m not saying it can be automatically assumed that there will be expansion."
4:13 PM - 14 Sep 2016

[HoustonWave]

Or, what if OU were to cut a deal with the AAC and bring OU, OSU, KU and K-State? Would that be enough to get the AAC P5 status?

I don't think they would leave ISU and WVU hanging out there. I sense that there is somewhat of an alliance between OU and WVU in all the expansion drama. If OU were to cut a deal with AAC, WVU would then be right in the middle of the geography. UH would go with the Texas schools, and very likely so would SMU. So that would leave ten AAC schools, combining with six in the OU group.

Alternatively, OU's faction of six Big XII schools could just add BYU, and raid CSU, Air Force, Tulane, Cincy and UConn. That would be a 12 team conference with very good balance between football, basketball and academics. It also picks up some pretty decent TV markets. If they want 14 teams, add Navy and Army. The biggest problem with any of these scenarios is that it would completely remove the Texas recruiting turf from the new conference. OU and OSU might dry up real fast from a talent standpoint.

[HoustonWave]

And the cluster continues. What a disfunctional conference. I hope when all this is said and done, someone on the inside writes a book covering the entire process. It would be hilarious to read.


Jake TrotterVerified account
‏@Jake_Trotter
David Boren: "I’m not saying there won't be expansion. But I’m not saying it can be automatically assumed that there will be expansion."
4:13 PM - 14 Sep 2016

Deadlock, for now. Never mind. But you can be sure that the smoke-filled back rooms will be busy over the next couple of years. No expansion will be really bad news for UH--can they continue their almost 60% subsidy? do they have any chance of keeping Herman? I think the answer to both questions is "no", and I bet Boren knows that as well. OU might get the last laugh by delaying expansion by a couple years--watch UH revert back to the mean, and UT doesn't get its land deal as easily as hoped. Then we can all do this again 2 or 3 years, when UT is no longer pimping for UH.

[jonathanjoseph]

I am not sure Texas and OU will be leaving the Big 12 anytime soon...first a conference has to extend an invite, the two logical conferences would be either the PAC 12 or SEC with the Big10 a long shot.... The PAC 12 had an opportunity to offer UT and OU when they invited Colorado..they chose to allow both OU and UT to be the ass' they are, alone in their own play pen. UT and OU both realize the easiest way to the College playoff as we know them is thru the Big 12...OU in the SEC would be Arkansas West, UT may fare somewhat better, but their conference schedule each year would have LSU, A&M, OU, Arkansas, Ole MIss plus a X-Over game, can anyone say Alabama, AU, Florida, Georgia...UT does not want that, nor does OU...If OU and UT leaves the Big 12, and that will be in at least two years, a Big 12 with the additions of Houston, BYU, Cincy is one hell of alot better than anything Tulane has seen since it's SEC days. I also suspect, that in some way, political or in some smoke filled back room, OU and OSU are a packaged deal

No doubt that OU and UT would be better off long term by staying in the Big XII, but their colliding egos may blow the whole thing apart over this expansion. I'm shocked if it's true that 7 teams are against Cincy--that would strongly suggest that UT successfully did an end run on OU, as OU and WVU have been Cincy's strongest supporters. The so called Plan B, with BYU (and probably others) is perhaps OU's retaliation. If they do blow up the Big XII over this expansion deadlock, both OU and UT may first try to form their own conferences before looking to the PAC 12, SEC or B1G. I bet the Big XII's little 8 already know which faction they will align with, especially if there actually is a Plan B already circulating. Perhaps there was more logic to the 20 team cattle call than was initially apparent. Both factions now have a host of info on all 20 schools.

Very interesting point about the fact finding. I'm not sure I buy that level of sophistication though. This seems like Occam's Razor, which is that it's simply the product of a dysfunctional mess.

[jonathanjoseph]

Or, what if OU were to cut a deal with the AAC and bring OU, OSU, KU and K-State? Would that be enough to get the AAC P5 status?

I don't think they would leave ISU and WVU hanging out there. I sense that there is somewhat of an alliance between OU and WVU in all the expansion drama. If OU were to cut a deal with AAC, WVU would then be right in the middle of the geography. UH would go with the Texas schools, and very likely so would SMU. So that would leave ten AAC schools, combining with six in the OU group.

Alternatively, OU's faction of six Big XII schools could just add BYU, and raid CSU, Air Force, Tulane, Cincy and UConn. That would be a 12 team conference with very good balance between football, basketball and academics. It also picks up some pretty decent TV markets. If they want 14 teams, add Navy and Army. The biggest problem with any of these scenarios is that it would completely remove the Texas recruiting turf from the new conference. OU and OSU might dry up real fast from a talent standpoint.

Fantastic possibility. Great idea.

[winwave]

And the cluster continues. What a disfunctional conference. I hope when all this is said and done, someone on the inside writes a book covering the entire process. It would be hilarious to read.


Jake TrotterVerified account
‏@Jake_Trotter
David Boren: "I’m not saying there won't be expansion. But I’m not saying it can be automatically assumed that there will be expansion."
4:13 PM - 14 Sep 2016

Deadlock, for now. Never mind. But you can be sure that the smoke-filled back rooms will be busy over the next couple of years. No expansion will be really bad news for UH--can they continue their almost 60% subsidy? do they have any chance of keeping Herman? I think the answer to both questions is "no", and I bet Boren knows that as well. OU might get the last laugh by delaying expansion by a couple years--watch UH revert back to the mean, and UT doesn't get its land deal as easily as hoped. Then we can all do this again 2 or 3 years, when UT is no longer pimping for UH.

There was mention today that if Herman leaves UH they will bring back Briles.

[golfnut69]

And the cluster continues. What a disfunctional conference. I hope when all this is said and done, someone on the inside writes a book covering the entire process. It would be hilarious to read.


Jake TrotterVerified account
‏@Jake_Trotter
David Boren: "I’m not saying there won't be expansion. But I’m not saying it can be automatically assumed that there will be expansion."
4:13 PM - 14 Sep 2016

So Boren is the new version of George Carlin, the Hippy, Dippy Weather Man...."there is a 50 percent chance of rain, maybe it will and maybe it won't "

[OUG]

Question, if Texas and OU were to form two separate conferences, what would happen to the P5 status of the Big 12? Meaning, would one of the two new conferences get that, or would they both get that? Or, would the P5 become the P4. Also, you'd have to think ESPN would pay more to a conference with OU in it than they would to the AAC. As for Texas, if they form their own conference, the LHN would still be an issue. Would ESPN, Fox or someone else pay for rights to a conference network?

Considering that the current Big XII is barely hanging onto P5 status, my guess is we would have a P4, three decent non-P4s (OU's, UT's and AAC), and the four lagging conferences (MWC, CUSA, MAC and Sunbelt). Presumably 8 to 12 schools might get picked out of the MWC, MAC and CUSA to fill the ranks of the OU, UT and AAC conferences in all the shuffling. My guess is we would end up in the UT conference. We might get an invite from the OU conference, and it might look more attractive, but oh the travel.

Beyond hyperbole to say that the Big 12 is barely hanging on to P5 status. It is true that the conference is the most likely to be raided, but that is as much a fact of geography as anything else. If the Big 12 wants to stay together, they can stay "P5" for as long as the sun rises in the east.

[golfnut69]

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college ... ssumed?f=r

[Aberzombie1892]

Beyond hyperbole to say that the Big 12 is barely hanging on to P5 status. It is true that the conference is the most likely to be raided, but that is as much a fact of geography as anything else. If the Big 12 wants to stay together, they can stay "P5" for as long as the sun rises in the east.

This. The Big 12 is #3 in average home attendance, average total revenue per team and in average conference/3rd tier payout per team - so it's not barely hanging on the way that media would like for it to be portrayed. To be honest, if the Big 12 stabilizes, the PAC 12 would ultimately be the weakest conference in the sense that they have few valuable expansion candidates (national relevance/general following/recruiting impact) that it would seriously consider (academics) in its time zone if the power conferences expanded, its network is currently a failure, and not as many people watch its games because they are so late for the huge amount of people living in the central/eastern time zones - and that's not even acknowledging the impact of at least one NFL team entering the Los Angeles market.

Attendance - 6,000 attendance difference between #3 Big 12 and #4 PAC12 - http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/c ... story.html
Average total revenue per team - $13M average per team difference between #3 Big12 and #4 ACC - http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/c ... story.html
Average payout per team - http://newsok.com/article/5502121

[wave97]

Question, if Texas and OU were to form two separate conferences, what would happen to the P5 status of the Big 12? Meaning, would one of the two new conferences get that, or would they both get that? Or, would the P5 become the P4. Also, you'd have to think ESPN would pay more to a conference with OU in it than they would to the AAC. As for Texas, if they form their own conference, the LHN would still be an issue. Would ESPN, Fox or someone else pay for rights to a conference network?

If there is a split within the North/South factions of the Big12 the proximity of the recruiting resources will have to favor the Texas faction. OU & OSU will not be able to roll into a prospect's living room and say "we play half of our schedule in the State of Texas" - It would devastate recruiting for the North Faction.
Tulane adds a great deal to the recruiting base of any iteration of the Big12.

[HoustonWave]

Question, if Texas and OU were to form two separate conferences, what would happen to the P5 status of the Big 12? Meaning, would one of the two new conferences get that, or would they both get that? Or, would the P5 become the P4. Also, you'd have to think ESPN would pay more to a conference with OU in it than they would to the AAC. As for Texas, if they form their own conference, the LHN would still be an issue. Would ESPN, Fox or someone else pay for rights to a conference network?

Considering that the current Big XII is barely hanging onto P5 status, my guess is we would have a P4, three decent non-P4s (OU's, UT's and AAC), and the four lagging conferences (MWC, CUSA, MAC and Sunbelt). Presumably 8 to 12 schools might get picked out of the MWC, MAC and CUSA to fill the ranks of the OU, UT and AAC conferences in all the shuffling. My guess is we would end up in the UT conference. We might get an invite from the OU conference, and it might look more attractive, but oh the travel.

Beyond hyperbole to say that the Big 12 is barely hanging on to P5 status. It is true that the conference is the most likely to be raided, but that is as much a fact of geography as anything else. If the Big 12 wants to stay together, they can stay "P5" for as long as the sun rises in the east.

Big XII is a P5 only because of OU and UT. Notwithstanding the recent ascendance of TCU and Baylor, take OU and UT out of the Big XII and it's no longer a P5. No other P5 conference is as dependent on just two schools. That is the never ending existential risk for the Big XII, and why at least a 4 team expansion improves its chances of long term survival. If OU and UT move on, I continue to doubt that many of the remaining Big XII teams will get picked up by the remaining P4, due to geography and some very weak academics. In projecting each P4 expanding to 16 teams, there are a number of G5 schools that would make far more sense than the Big XII orphans. The PAC 12 might decide to make the long reach east to grab some Big XII orphans, but they would have to do so greatly compromising their historic standards--which might happen, look at the ACC taking Louisville. There is a reason that everyone automatically knows which conferences are in the P4.

[HoustonWave]

Question, if Texas and OU were to form two separate conferences, what would happen to the P5 status of the Big 12? Meaning, would one of the two new conferences get that, or would they both get that? Or, would the P5 become the P4. Also, you'd have to think ESPN would pay more to a conference with OU in it than they would to the AAC. As for Texas, if they form their own conference, the LHN would still be an issue. Would ESPN, Fox or someone else pay for rights to a conference network?

If there is a split within the North/South factions of the Big12 the proximity of the recruiting resources will have to favor the Texas faction. OU & OSU will not be able to roll into a prospect's living room and say "we play half of our schedule in the State of Texas" - It would devastate recruiting for the North Faction.
Tulane adds a great deal to the recruiting base of any iteration of the Big12.

Absolutely. Only OU would still have a shot of recruiting in Texas, and then only if the Red River Rivalry continued. Because of their game with UT, OU was able to effectively recruit in Texas even back in the Big 8 and SWC days. But end that game, and OU would also have serious problems recruiting Texas over the long haul--just as Arkansas has. If an OU led north faction broke apart, the recruiting turf offered by Cincy and Tulane would be critical.

[JerseyWave]

I'm hoping there is no expansion because...

1. Can't trust that Texas and Oklahoma are committed to the Big 12 long term, they could be a package deal to the Big10, PAC 12, or SEC
2. Tulane is most likely on the outside looking in
3. Buys time for Dannen and his coaches to continue improving Tulane's athletic competitiveness and brand
4. If the AAC holds together in its current format with many of the programs on the way up it could become a P6 conference.

Imagine if C-USA of the early 2000s held together......Louisville, TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, East Carolina, etc would have been a very strong Football/Basketball conference. The longer the AAC stays together, the stronger the conference will become.

[golfnut69]

This week will tell just how powerful on the field the Big 12 really is...UT travels to Berkely to play an average Cal team and The Ohio State U,not to be confused with that powerhouse "Ohio" team that raided the Big 12 last week travels to scenic Norman...La Tech should score some points in Lubbock...and Okie State plays the Pitt Panthers, who will be really high or really average after beating Jo Pa U