Big XII Expansion

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RobertM320
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jonathanjoseph wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:
JJ, the Big 12 brass have never said USF/UCF need to be a package. But given all the complaints the conference members have about WVU being out on an island so far away, it wouldn't make sense to placate them with Cincinnati only to create a new island in Florida. And if WVU prefers UConn to Cincy, which is something I'm seeing from time to time, then adding a single Florida school would be even more of a travel nightmare.
I hear that, but placating WVU for travel concerns seems to be very far down the list. If travel concerns are a legitimate issue, all the better for our resume. But there's no chance that any decision is made as a way to make WVU feel better about traveling.
I didn't mean it as far as placating WVU. I meant the rest of conference complains about going to WVU, so adding UC makes travel more palatable, especially for other sports. Doing that, then turning around and adding only one Florida school would just recreate the same situation they've been complaining about.


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Yes, overall, this whole Big 12 Expansion is one big cluster@#$%.
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jonathanjoseph wrote:Wow. What a $hit show. I'd bet it's 70-30 FOR expansion because if this falls through you can bet this conference has little chance in the long term.
I agree and that makes the AAC look better by the day. The AAC has so much potential, and, so far this season, it appears as though the conference may finally be capitalizing on it. It gets even better since the AAC still has two slots remaining for expansion, so it could still expand with 2 of the more attractive non-AAC G5s/Army/BYU or even one of the lower end Big 12 remnants (assuming that that conference collapses), as those remnants would still be pretty valuable.
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RobertM320
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We could even be proactive, poach a couple of low end Big12's and then see if we can get SEC,ACC,B1G,PAC12 to agree to make AAC the fifth P5 conf.
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Well, I'm not sure about that because the current AAC contract is literal crap compared to the Big 12 contract, and it's not as if the AAC would ever turn down an existing P5 program that makes geographical sense. Given that that is the case, the lower end Big 12 members would likely sit tight and see what happens, and, if the conference heads towards dissolute, they would likely shop around to other P5s before approaching the AAC.
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There is no way "big money" NCAA football evolves into just 4 major conferences. There would be entirely too many teams in each conference to make meaningful scheduling. It would end up as conferences with divisions that only play each other in "championship games" and would essentially be two separate sub conferences. The lower teams in the conference would literally NEVER play any teams in the other division. Six or 7 conferences of reasonable size makes the most sense but that horse may have left the barn.
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RobertM320 wrote:And here's a different viewpoint from someone who runs a Texas Tech site. He seems to think there was no intent to expand. Just political cover for Texas and OU to leave. But he thinks the league could disband before that, as other schools start getting poached by other P5s.


Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 15h15 hours ago
No. There may have been wind in the wire like that but come nut cutting time, votes not there for any teams ....

Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 15h15 hours ago
No offense to any fan of any school, but y'all have been played. A sad opera designed to give an out to #UT & #OU.

Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 15h15 hours ago
Ha. Not hardly. Just Occam's Razor in play. Watched this soap opera for years. A dysfunctional marriage gone bad.

Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 15h15 hours ago
Ryan Hyatt Retweeted ChrisCarpenter
1.5 to end of current tv deal. Of course deals can always be scuttled and redone so really doesn't matterRyan Hyatt added,
ChrisCarpenter @ChrisCarp22
@RyanHyattMedia so how many more years of existence do you give the big 12

Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 14h14 hours ago
Ryan Hyatt Retweeted Russell Smith
First part, yes. All a show. TV not a big deal. All a show to allow #OU & #UT to say they tried to save conference..Ryan Hyatt added,
Russell Smith @kingfish806
@RyanHyattMedia This was all a show. It was meant to get TV to tip their hand on future negotiations.

Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 14h14 hours ago
I truly feel bad for teams that thought #Big12Expansion was real and they'd get it. It never was gonna happen. Dog & Pony show. . .


Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 14h14 hours ago
The next phase of #Big12Expansion is actually watching other conferences begin to position themselves for the remnants. Who wants whom?.....


Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 14h14 hours ago
There are fewer TV networks than conferences.Hence, networks have the power to dictate from here what conferences look like. #Big12Expansion

Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 14h14 hours ago
No. Because #OU and #UT never intended to expand. They needed political cover to make their exit easier...


Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 14h14 hours ago
Schools/fans need to embrace idea that not all sports will play in same conference/groupings. What works for football, doesn't for golf...

Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 14h14 hours ago
Ryan Hyatt Retweeted Barry Propes
No way it lasts that long. In a few weeks the vultures will start picking at the remains.Ryan Hyatt added,
Barry Propes @bpropes30
@RyanHyattMedia hmmm. Ok. Well, I guess this dumb league will R.I.P. circa 2023.


Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 14h14 hours ago
Ryan Hyatt Retweeted Nathan Rigler
No. Just no expansion announcement. Then it sets in motion the other leagues moving on Big 12 teams. . . .
Nathan Rigler @nrig_tx
@RyanHyattMedia @bpropes30 A few weeks? So you expect some kind of exit announcement by UT and OU in the near future.

Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 14h14 hours ago
Ryan Hyatt Retweeted Barry Propes
No.
Barry Propes @bpropes30
@RyanHyattMedia won't teams forfeit all their $ prior to the GOR expiration?

Ryan Hyatt ‏@RyanHyattMedia 13h13 hours ago
Ryan Hyatt Retweeted Barry Propes
More or less. The GOR is on shaky legal ground no matter what. It's merely a contract & contracts get changed.EasilyRyan Hyatt added,
Barry Propes @bpropes30
@RyanHyattMedia so the majority will vote to disband? Isn't that what it takes?
If it all unravels, no doubt UT and OU will have multiple options, but ironically, none of those options (SEC, PAC 12, B1G) will be as attractive as their current and prospective Big XII arrangement, when it comes to future TV revenue and chances at a national title. That's why OU and UT may both have a Plan B up their sleeve. And probably in both cases, they would include an arrangement where each school dominates a new conference. In all of this, I get a sense that UT is not interested in much of anything outside of Texas, especially not interested in reaching east or west. OU clearly seems to be more open to going east and west, and would likely be able to rack up BYU, CSU, Air Force, Cincy and UConn if they wanted to start a new conference along with OSU, KU, KSU, ISU and WVU. I guess UT would essentially resurrect most of the old SWC. One can only wonder where Tulane may end up in such carnage. We're no longer a flea at an elephant dance, we're a flea at an elephant brawl.
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RobertM320
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I read somewhere that the P5 greed could ultimately be the demise of college football. This is the premise:

As more P5 schools are trying to limit the number of games against G5/FCS, that leaves fewer and fewer "money games" for schools like Jacksonville State, Southern, Nicholls, etc to play. These schools use those money games to help finance their athletic department. If they can't get the money, some schools would choose not to field football at all. When that happens, it leaves fewer and fewer scholarships available for high school players to get a free ride for playing football, as the P5's can't provide enough scholarships for every kid. As that happens, you'll start seeing kids focus on basketball and baseball for athletic scholarships. With all the worries already about football safety, the interest in playing football will wane, and eventually it will affect the P5s.

And this doesn't even take into account that if the P5's all start playing only each other, are schools like LSU and Tex A&M and the like ready to accept that somehow, half of them will have losing records. Will they accept year after year of 4-8, 5-7, because they can't pick up a couple of wins against an FCS or G5 school?

This is just something I read. I didn't come up with this myself.
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Unfortunately what is going to happen is the P5's are going to vote to go above the 85 limit. They have been making noise about it so you can bet it's coming sooner than later.
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Here's what I think will ultimately happen. Tulane will become a member of a UT and OU-less BIGXII. Similar to what happened with the Big East years ago. Then, hello CUSA 2.0.
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winwave wrote:Unfortunately what is going to happen is the P5's are going to vote to go above the 85 limit. They have been making noise about it so you can bet it's coming sooner than later.
I was thinking that as well. But there will eventually be a limit. Does them no good to have 200 players on the football team. Lots of those kids would never play. Unless they go back to fielding JV teams for Fr and So. Given today's desire for live content, I'd bet you'd get people to watch Alabama vs LSU frosh teams.
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NOLABigSteve wrote:Here's what I think will ultimately happen. Tulane will become a member of a UT and OU-less BIGXII. Similar to what happened with the Big East years ago. Then, hello CUSA 2.0.
I don't know. Would being in a conference with K-State, Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, etc, still be preferable to playing Tulsa, Memphis, So Miss, or god forbid, Marshall or UTSA?
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NOLABigSteve wrote:Here's what I think will ultimately happen. Tulane will become a member of a UT and OU-less BIGXII. Similar to what happened with the Big East years ago. Then, hello CUSA 2.0.
What do you mean by CUSA 2.0? I would say that C-USA 1.0 was hugely successful for most members. TCU, UL, UH, UC, ECU, USF, etc all did a great job of building their programs. Tulane didn't because it didn't try. On the basketball side, Marquette and DePaul are in their preferred Big East home now. Can't say it wasn't good for them.

C-USA 2.0, to me, means the current iteration -- where the league replaced the above departures with commuter schools that didn't even exist 40 years ago (UTSA, FIU, FAU, etc)

I can't see the Big 12 remnants becoming that. What I can see it becoming is a souped up AAC.

Assuming that the B1G takes Kansas and Texas (both AAU) and becomes the first mega conference, I could see OU, OK State, K State, and Texas Tech forming a Western division of a 16 team Pac 12.

That would leave Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, and WVU, which would all be within the AAC foot print. The AAC might grab UCONN, but it would be hard not to see the other 11 AAC football schools merging with these four remnants (and maybe adding BYU or Air Force FB). That would be a very strong conference.
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jonathanjoseph wrote: I hear that, but placating WVU for travel concerns seems to be very far down the list. If travel concerns are a legitimate issue, all the better for our resume. But there's no chance that any decision is made as a way to make WVU feel better about traveling.
I don't know that it's so much about placating WVU's travel woes as it is the rest of the league. If they "build a bridge" by adding Cincinnati, (UConn is a hell of a lot further away from Morgantown than Cincinnati) then sports other than football can be scheduled to play in Morgantown and Cincinnati on the same road trip. I might be off, but that's been my take on the "outlayer" argument; it's more for the rest of the conference than it is for WVU.

UConn is the ultimate outlayer for the Big 12, and for that reason I don't see them as a good fit. Academics and athletics are solid (though the football team hasn't been very good since Randy Edsall left.) and the market is large, but it's just too far out of the Big 12 footprint.

Again, as Robert said on the previous page, the one thing that we can be certain of is that NOBODY knows what they'll do!
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RobertM320 wrote:
winwave wrote:Unfortunately what is going to happen is the P5's are going to vote to go above the 85 limit. They have been making noise about it so you can bet it's coming sooner than later.
I was thinking that as well. But there will eventually be a limit. Does them no good to have 200 players on the football team. Lots of those kids would never play. Unless they go back to fielding JV teams for Fr and So. Given today's desire for live content, I'd bet you'd get people to watch Alabama vs LSU frosh teams.
Certainly there will be a limit but it means more quality players are going to go sit on the bench at Big U than come here. It's not good for us.
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OUG wrote:
NOLABigSteve wrote:Here's what I think will ultimately happen. Tulane will become a member of a UT and OU-less BIGXII. Similar to what happened with the Big East years ago. Then, hello CUSA 2.0.
What do you mean by CUSA 2.0? I would say that C-USA 1.0 was hugely successful for most members. TCU, UL, UH, UC, ECU, USF, etc all did a great job of building their programs. Tulane didn't because it didn't try. On the basketball side, Marquette and DePaul are in their preferred Big East home now. Can't say it wasn't good for them.

C-USA 2.0, to me, means the current iteration -- where the league replaced the above departures with commuter schools that didn't even exist 40 years ago (UTSA, FIU, FAU, etc)

I can't see the Big 12 remnants becoming that. What I can see it becoming is a souped up AAC.

Assuming that the B1G takes Kansas and Texas (both AAU) and becomes the first mega conference, I could see OU, OK State, K State, and Texas Tech forming a Western division of a 16 team Pac 12.

That would leave Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, and WVU, which would all be within the AAC foot print. The AAC might grab UCONN, but it would be hard not to see the other 11 AAC football schools merging with these four remnants (and maybe adding BYU or Air Force FB). That would be a very strong conference.
Not really sure what I'm saying. I guess I personally just feel a BigXII without UT and OU really isn't as appealing. I don't think CUSA 1.0 was bad. Not at all. I just feel if we make it into a watered down conference (BIGXII without UT and OU), then we really are in the same position as we were back in our CUSA days. I think there is a better chance any BIGXII remnants would join other power conferences vs. starting their own. And then where does that leave us? Better, improved, but still on the outside looking in.
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I am not sure Texas and OU will be leaving the Big 12 anytime soon...first a conference has to extend an invite, the two logical conferences would be either the PAC 12 or SEC with the Big10 a long shot.... The PAC 12 had an opportunity to offer UT and OU when they invited Colorado..they chose to allow both OU and UT to be the ass' they are, alone in their own play pen. UT and OU both realize the easiest way to the College playoff as we know them is thru the Big 12...OU in the SEC would be Arkansas West, UT may fare somewhat better, but their conference schedule each year would have LSU, A&M, OU, Arkansas, Ole MIss plus a X-Over game, can anyone say Alabama, AU, Florida, Georgia...UT does not want that, nor does OU...If OU and UT leaves the Big 12, and that will be in at least two years, a Big 12 with the additions of Houston, BYU, Cincy is one hell of alot better than anything Tulane has seen since it's SEC days. I also suspect, that in some way, political or in some smoke filled back room, OU and OSU are a packaged deal
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As much of a shitshow as the Big XII may be it's still the last chopper out of Nam for any G5.
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winwave wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:
winwave wrote:Unfortunately what is going to happen is the P5's are going to vote to go above the 85 limit. They have been making noise about it so you can bet it's coming sooner than later.
I was thinking that as well. But there will eventually be a limit. Does them no good to have 200 players on the football team. Lots of those kids would never play. Unless they go back to fielding JV teams for Fr and So. Given today's desire for live content, I'd bet you'd get people to watch Alabama vs LSU frosh teams.
Certainly there will be a limit but it means more quality players are going to go sit on the bench at Big U than come here. It's not good for us.
Every scholly they add will cost them double because of Title IX.
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ajcalhoun wrote:As much of a shitshow as the Big XII may be it's still the last chopper out of Nam for any G5.
It's a dam no brainer, The AAC currently gets $2.1mm in TV rights, the B12 gets about $25mm per.

If we get a B12 invite, JJ should fly here, run naked through St Charles and steal the Cowen Circle sign.
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Honestly, there is almost no situation in which Tulane turns down a Big 12 invite. Even if 6 Big 12 teams leave the conference for other conferences, the hand picking of the expansion of the Big conference by the four members would ensure that the new, "weaker" Big 12 would still be more valuable than the AAC given that it would steal the best teams from the AAC/MWC/Ind. ranks and given that those four remaining Big 12 programs each generate more revenue than any given AAC team.

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HoustonWave wrote:
What a food fight. Sounds like Cincy's blandness (if that's even a word) may have caught up with them. It's interesting, the suggestions that BYU and certain other Big XII members may be plotting a Plan B. Sounds like no expansion might be the death knell of the Big XII. Maybe OU, along with Cincy and BYU and others forms a new conference, and Texas may get it's ultimate wish and form its own Texas-based conference. Which one would be best for Tulane? We might get two offers.
Yeah the one thing I am sure of is there is a lot more change ahead. Getting in a P5 now is obviously ideal, but the media rights dance will go on for another decade at least. I think some universities will go bankrupt before this comes to any logical conclusion.
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RobertM320 wrote:
jonathanjoseph wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:
JJ, the Big 12 brass have never said USF/UCF need to be a package. But given all the complaints the conference members have about WVU being out on an island so far away, it wouldn't make sense to placate them with Cincinnati only to create a new island in Florida. And if WVU prefers UConn to Cincy, which is something I'm seeing from time to time, then adding a single Florida school would be even more of a travel nightmare.
I hear that, but placating WVU for travel concerns seems to be very far down the list. If travel concerns are a legitimate issue, all the better for our resume. But there's no chance that any decision is made as a way to make WVU feel better about traveling.
I didn't mean it as far as placating WVU. I meant the rest of conference complains about going to WVU, so adding UC makes travel more palatable, especially for other sports. Doing that, then turning around and adding only one Florida school would just recreate the same situation they've been complaining about.
But doesn't adding 2 FLA schools only make that problem worse? Either the travel is a problem or it isn't. Either expansion into eastern markets is important or it isn't. That's why Tulane makes the most sense of all those, because it's not hard travel wise and still adds an important new market.
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anEngineer wrote:There is no way "big money" NCAA football evolves into just 4 major conferences. There would be entirely too many teams in each conference to make meaningful scheduling. It would end up as conferences with divisions that only play each other in "championship games" and would essentially be two separate sub conferences. The lower teams in the conference would literally NEVER play any teams in the other division. Six or 7 conferences of reasonable size makes the most sense but that horse may have left the barn.
I agree that the direction things seem to be headed does not make sense. The changing media landscape will open up opportunity, not close it off. Conferences run the risk of making themselves irrelevant.
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mbawavefan12 wrote:
winwave wrote:
RobertM320 wrote:
winwave wrote:Unfortunately what is going to happen is the P5's are going to vote to go above the 85 limit. They have been making noise about it so you can bet it's coming sooner than later.
I was thinking that as well. But there will eventually be a limit. Does them no good to have 200 players on the football team. Lots of those kids would never play. Unless they go back to fielding JV teams for Fr and So. Given today's desire for live content, I'd bet you'd get people to watch Alabama vs LSU frosh teams.
Certainly there will be a limit but it means more quality players are going to go sit on the bench at Big U than come here. It's not good for us.
Every scholly they add will cost them double because of Title IX.
They will gladly add those women's sports to get what they want in football. Also I have never bought the argument that all 85 have to be equaled out in the equation. Women don't play the sport and if one did the research I bet there is an exemption or different calculation w/regards to football.
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